Summary of Remarks: 파월 의장의 발언을 요약하자면, 물가 목표치 2%를 달성하기 위해 최선을 다할 것이며, 다만 이러한 정책 기조는 지속적으로 발표되는 경제지표에 의존할 것이란 사실을 유지했음.
Powell acknowledges the hardship caused by high inflation and expresses a strong commitment to returning inflation to the 2 percent goal. He reviews the current economic situation, highlighting the slowdown in growth but tight labor market conditions. He also mentions the increase in interest rates by 4-1/2 percentage points over the past year to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. The Committee has been slowing the pace of interest rate increases over its past two meetings, and they will continue to make decisions meeting by meeting based on the incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation. The overarching focus is to use the tools to bring inflation back down to the 2 percent goal and to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.
Powell acknowledges the hardship caused by high inflation and expresses a strong commitment to returning inflation to the 2 percent goal. He reviews the current economic situation, highlighting the slowdown in growth but tight labor market conditions. He also mentions the increase in interest rates by 4-1/2 percentage points over the past year to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. The Committee has been slowing the pace of interest rate increases over its past two meetings, and they will continue to make decisions meeting by meeting based on the incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation. The overarching focus is to use the tools to bring inflation back down to the 2 percent goal and to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.
Powell: 브라운의 암호화폐 시장에 대한 규제 질문에 파월 의장은 혁신을 막을 생각은 없으며, 다만, 사기행각과 투명성 부족에 대해서는 면밀히 주시하고 있다 답변함.
Powell says the central bank doesn’t want to stifle innovation. But the Fed is watching what’s been happening in crypto and it’s seeing fraud and a lack of transparency, among other things.
Powell says the central bank doesn’t want to stifle innovation. But the Fed is watching what’s been happening in crypto and it’s seeing fraud and a lack of transparency, among other things.
Analyst: 공통적인 반응은 예상보다 강경한 어조라는 것, 다만 모든 정책회의마다 그 전에 발표 된 경제지표에 기인할 것이라는 점 또한 강조함.
BMO - Powell’s prepared text was biased hawkishly (more so than we anticipated) with comments that the Fed is ‘prepared to increase the pace of hikes if needed’ and the ‘ultimate rate peak is likely higher than expected.’ He went on to note decisions will be made ‘meeting by meeting.
Evercore - Fed chair Powell’s prepared testimony to Congress is more hawkish than we had anticipated and risk-off. The analysis of economic data is along the lines we had expected and Powell continued to point to policy lags, but the policy lean is more aggressive and forward-leaning.
BMO - Powell’s prepared text was biased hawkishly (more so than we anticipated) with comments that the Fed is ‘prepared to increase the pace of hikes if needed’ and the ‘ultimate rate peak is likely higher than expected.’ He went on to note decisions will be made ‘meeting by meeting.
Evercore - Fed chair Powell’s prepared testimony to Congress is more hawkish than we had anticipated and risk-off. The analysis of economic data is along the lines we had expected and Powell continued to point to policy lags, but the policy lean is more aggressive and forward-leaning.
Powell: 인플레이션에 관해 파월 의장은 기대에 미치지 못하고 있으며, 가야 할 길이 멀다고 함.
We focus on everything but we also focus on core in particular, which doesn’t include energy prices. He notes that inflation hasn’t come down nearly as fast as hoped and “we still have a long way to go.”
We focus on everything but we also focus on core in particular, which doesn’t include energy prices. He notes that inflation hasn’t come down nearly as fast as hoped and “we still have a long way to go.”
Powell: 노동시장은 과열 상태가 심각한 수준이라 평가함.
The labor market is “extremely tight, extremely” with the lowest unemployment rate in 54 years and, by most estimates, exceeding maximum employment.
The labor market is “extremely tight, extremely” with the lowest unemployment rate in 54 years and, by most estimates, exceeding maximum employment.
Powell: 물가 상승의 원천은 공급망 붕괴였지만, 이제 주택과 기타 부문으로 확산 중임.
The source of the original inflation was the collapse of the global supply chain. It has now spread to housing and other sectors, he adds.
The source of the original inflation was the collapse of the global supply chain. It has now spread to housing and other sectors, he adds.
Britt & Powell: 금리인상에 주요하게 보는 요인에 대한 질문에 파월 의장은 상품, 주택, 그리고 서비스 부문의 인플레이션이라 답함.
In the coming year, what factors is Powell paying attention to as the FOMC decides whether to increase rates. Powell says they will be looking at inflation in three areas: the goods sector, housing sector and the broader service sector.
In the coming year, what factors is Powell paying attention to as the FOMC decides whether to increase rates. Powell says they will be looking at inflation in three areas: the goods sector, housing sector and the broader service sector.
Powell: 긴축적인 통화정책이 경제에 미치는 영향이 시차를 가지기 때문에 이 효과를 지켜볼 것이라 함.
Tightening policy has delayed effects, so central bank will be watching to see those effects come into play.
Tightening policy has delayed effects, so central bank will be watching to see those effects come into play.
Powell: 경제지표를 통해 중앙은행이 과도한 긴축정책을 시행하고 있다는 것은 없으며, 할 일이 더 남았을 뿐이라 함.
Nothing about the data suggests to me that we’ve tightened too much. more work to do.
Nothing about the data suggests to me that we’ve tightened too much. more work to do.
Powell & Warren: 워런의 경우 약 200만명이 일자리를 통화긴축 때문에 상실할 것이라 비난했고, 파월 의장은 인플레이션에 모두가 피해를 입었고 이를 해결하기 위해 노력 중이라 답함. 또한 인플레이션을 진압하는 이 경로를 중단한다고 노동자들이 나아질 것인지 반문함.
Warren says about 2 million people will lose their jobs as a result of the Fed’s anticipated monetary tightening. She asks Powell how to explain to them they must lose their jobs.
Powell says he would explain that inflation is extremely high and hurting everyone. Powell says the Fed is doing its job to address that damage. Powell asks Warren if working people will be better off if they were to stop their inflation-fighting campaign.
Warren said the Fed “has a terrible track record” of mitigating job losses once they start. Powell will tip the economy over a cliff and millions will lose their jobs.
Warren says about 2 million people will lose their jobs as a result of the Fed’s anticipated monetary tightening. She asks Powell how to explain to them they must lose their jobs.
Powell says he would explain that inflation is extremely high and hurting everyone. Powell says the Fed is doing its job to address that damage. Powell asks Warren if working people will be better off if they were to stop their inflation-fighting campaign.
Warren said the Fed “has a terrible track record” of mitigating job losses once they start. Powell will tip the economy over a cliff and millions will lose their jobs.
Powell: 인플레이션을 통제하기 위해 반드시 실업률이 엄청나게 증가해야 한다고 생각하지 않는다 함.
“We actually don’t think we need to see a sharp or an enormous increase.” in unemployment in order to get inflation under control, Powell says.
“We actually don’t think we need to see a sharp or an enormous increase.” in unemployment in order to get inflation under control, Powell says.
Powell: 중립금리의 수준은 바이러스 대확산과 기타 충격 이전에 이미 많이내려 온 상태며, 이 때문에 실업률이 심각할 정도로 증가할 필요는 없다고 답변함.
Powell says the “neutral rate” dropped a lot before the pandemic and other shocks. “We don’t think we need a significant increase in unemployment,” he adds, and says they aren’t aiming for one, but he repeats that they do see need for some softening in labor markets.
Powell says the “neutral rate” dropped a lot before the pandemic and other shocks. “We don’t think we need a significant increase in unemployment,” he adds, and says they aren’t aiming for one, but he repeats that they do see need for some softening in labor markets.
Market Reaction: 향후 발표 될 3~4개의 경제지표가 3월 금리 결정에 중요하단 말에 정해진 것은 아직 없다고 판단하며 안도함.
Looks like stocks bounced just a little bit when Powell highlighted that the March policy decision has not been made, and that the upcoming data releases will play an important role.
Looks like stocks bounced just a little bit when Powell highlighted that the March policy decision has not been made, and that the upcoming data releases will play an important role.
Bottom-line: 주식시장이 지속적으로 타격을 받음에 따라 많은 투자자들이 회사채 시장으로 숨어들고 있음. EPFR에 따르면, 2017년 집계를 시작한 이후 최고 규모의 자금인 700억 달러가 투자등급 회사채 펀드에 유입되었음. 노무라증권의 애널리스트는 매우 짧은 만기의 단기채권이나 투자등급 회사채에 투자해 편히 잠을 잘 수 있는 시대에, 수 많은 데이터에 의해 변동을 겪는 주식에 몰두하겠냐고 반문했음. 그가 알기로 주식에 투자하는 펀드 매니저조차 현재 펀드의 25%~50% 비중을 이와 같은 우량 회사채에 투자해놓고 있는 경우도 있다 함. 이처럼 주식에 비우호적인 환경이 지속되자 단기 채권이나 투자등급 회사채를 대안으로 권유하는 경우가 점점 늘어나고 있음.
As stock markets take another pummeling, more traders are hiding out in credit markets. They’re finding refuge in top-quality bonds, especially short-term securities. So far this year, global investment-grade credit funds have absorbed almost $70 billion, making it the biggest inflow for this part of the year since EPFR Global started tracking the data in 2017. “Why would you subject yourself to this very data dependent, binary, weekly equity environment with rates repricing, when you can sleep at night sitting in Treasury bills or short-duration investment-grade credit,” said Charlie McElligott, cross-asset macro strategist at Nomura Securities International. He offered his own anecdotal evidence, saying he knows equity fund managers that have stocked their portfolios with between 25% and 50% of short-term bonds from blue-chip companies. Against a backdrop of high inflation and a Federal Reserve determined to keep raising rates, asset allocators face the challenge of picking the least-bad option. Stocks have taken a beating recently, bond prices are under pressure from Jerome Powell’s hawkish warnings and the value of cash is being eroded. “In the near-term, cash and investment-grade credit are the best way to be positioned,” said Thomas Hempell, head of macro and market research at Generali Investments. “Although it will not be a stellar performance.”
As stock markets take another pummeling, more traders are hiding out in credit markets. They’re finding refuge in top-quality bonds, especially short-term securities. So far this year, global investment-grade credit funds have absorbed almost $70 billion, making it the biggest inflow for this part of the year since EPFR Global started tracking the data in 2017. “Why would you subject yourself to this very data dependent, binary, weekly equity environment with rates repricing, when you can sleep at night sitting in Treasury bills or short-duration investment-grade credit,” said Charlie McElligott, cross-asset macro strategist at Nomura Securities International. He offered his own anecdotal evidence, saying he knows equity fund managers that have stocked their portfolios with between 25% and 50% of short-term bonds from blue-chip companies. Against a backdrop of high inflation and a Federal Reserve determined to keep raising rates, asset allocators face the challenge of picking the least-bad option. Stocks have taken a beating recently, bond prices are under pressure from Jerome Powell’s hawkish warnings and the value of cash is being eroded. “In the near-term, cash and investment-grade credit are the best way to be positioned,” said Thomas Hempell, head of macro and market research at Generali Investments. “Although it will not be a stellar performance.”