Market Reaction: 향후 발표 될 3~4개의 경제지표가 3월 금리 결정에 중요하단 말에 정해진 것은 아직 없다고 판단하며 안도함.
Looks like stocks bounced just a little bit when Powell highlighted that the March policy decision has not been made, and that the upcoming data releases will play an important role.
Looks like stocks bounced just a little bit when Powell highlighted that the March policy decision has not been made, and that the upcoming data releases will play an important role.
Bottom-line: 주식시장이 지속적으로 타격을 받음에 따라 많은 투자자들이 회사채 시장으로 숨어들고 있음. EPFR에 따르면, 2017년 집계를 시작한 이후 최고 규모의 자금인 700억 달러가 투자등급 회사채 펀드에 유입되었음. 노무라증권의 애널리스트는 매우 짧은 만기의 단기채권이나 투자등급 회사채에 투자해 편히 잠을 잘 수 있는 시대에, 수 많은 데이터에 의해 변동을 겪는 주식에 몰두하겠냐고 반문했음. 그가 알기로 주식에 투자하는 펀드 매니저조차 현재 펀드의 25%~50% 비중을 이와 같은 우량 회사채에 투자해놓고 있는 경우도 있다 함. 이처럼 주식에 비우호적인 환경이 지속되자 단기 채권이나 투자등급 회사채를 대안으로 권유하는 경우가 점점 늘어나고 있음.
As stock markets take another pummeling, more traders are hiding out in credit markets. They’re finding refuge in top-quality bonds, especially short-term securities. So far this year, global investment-grade credit funds have absorbed almost $70 billion, making it the biggest inflow for this part of the year since EPFR Global started tracking the data in 2017. “Why would you subject yourself to this very data dependent, binary, weekly equity environment with rates repricing, when you can sleep at night sitting in Treasury bills or short-duration investment-grade credit,” said Charlie McElligott, cross-asset macro strategist at Nomura Securities International. He offered his own anecdotal evidence, saying he knows equity fund managers that have stocked their portfolios with between 25% and 50% of short-term bonds from blue-chip companies. Against a backdrop of high inflation and a Federal Reserve determined to keep raising rates, asset allocators face the challenge of picking the least-bad option. Stocks have taken a beating recently, bond prices are under pressure from Jerome Powell’s hawkish warnings and the value of cash is being eroded. “In the near-term, cash and investment-grade credit are the best way to be positioned,” said Thomas Hempell, head of macro and market research at Generali Investments. “Although it will not be a stellar performance.”
As stock markets take another pummeling, more traders are hiding out in credit markets. They’re finding refuge in top-quality bonds, especially short-term securities. So far this year, global investment-grade credit funds have absorbed almost $70 billion, making it the biggest inflow for this part of the year since EPFR Global started tracking the data in 2017. “Why would you subject yourself to this very data dependent, binary, weekly equity environment with rates repricing, when you can sleep at night sitting in Treasury bills or short-duration investment-grade credit,” said Charlie McElligott, cross-asset macro strategist at Nomura Securities International. He offered his own anecdotal evidence, saying he knows equity fund managers that have stocked their portfolios with between 25% and 50% of short-term bonds from blue-chip companies. Against a backdrop of high inflation and a Federal Reserve determined to keep raising rates, asset allocators face the challenge of picking the least-bad option. Stocks have taken a beating recently, bond prices are under pressure from Jerome Powell’s hawkish warnings and the value of cash is being eroded. “In the near-term, cash and investment-grade credit are the best way to be positioned,” said Thomas Hempell, head of macro and market research at Generali Investments. “Although it will not be a stellar performance.”
Powell: 금리인상 폭에 대해 결정 된 바가 없음.
Powell stressed that there has been no decision made on the pace of rate hikes.
Powell stressed that there has been no decision made on the pace of rate hikes.
Powell: 오늘 발표를 포함해 고용과 물가와 관련 된 중요한 지표들이 아직 남았다는 입장임.
“We have some potentially important data coming out,” Powell says, noting the JOLTS report we just got, plus Friday’s jobs report and the CPI data coming out next week.
“We have some potentially important data coming out,” Powell says, noting the JOLTS report we just got, plus Friday’s jobs report and the CPI data coming out next week.
Bottom-line: 롤렉스, 파텍필립, 오데마피게로 대표되는 명품 시계의 연환산 투자수익률은 5년 간 20%에 달하며, 이는 동 기간 S&P 500 지수의 연환산 수익률 8%를 뛰어넘음. 독립 시계 브랜드들의 연환산 수익률 또한 15%에 달하며, 3대 브랜드의 경우 상징적인 롤렉스 데이토나, 파텍 노틸러스, 오데마피게 로얄 오크의 거래 가격이 2022년 1분기 이후 1/3 하락한 것을 반영했음. 물론, 2012년 이후 현재까지로 연환산 수익률을 계산하면 주식과 명품 시계는 각각 12%, 7%로 주식에 투자했을 때 수익률이 더 우세함. 이처럼 명품 시계의 투자수익률이 월등한 까닭에 와인, 예술품, 채권과 주식에 대한 대안투자로 강조하기도 함.
Prices for Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet watches appreciated by an average of 20% a year since mid-2018, outpacing the S&P 500 Index, as values for pre-owned luxury timepieces surged, a new report shows. The S&P 500 stock index averaged annual returns of 8% from August 2018 to January 2023 while a basket of pre-owned watch models from top Swiss brands grew at more than twice the pace, the report from Boston Consulting Group Inc. and secondary market dealer WatchBox said. That’s despite prices of some pre-owned models, including Rolex Daytonas, Patek Nautilus and AP Royal Oaks, declining by as much as a third since the market peaked in the first quarter of 2022. Prices for a basket of so-called independent brand watches including FP Journe, H. Moser & Cie and De Bethune — a small Swiss producer which is majority owned by WatchBox — returned 15% over the same period. The report touts luxury watches as an alternative asset class to stocks, bonds, art and wine. Over a longer period, stocks outperformed watches as an investment asset. The S&P 500 had a compound annual growth rate of 12% between 2012 and 2022, while Rolex, Patek and AP watches averaged 7%.
Prices for Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet watches appreciated by an average of 20% a year since mid-2018, outpacing the S&P 500 Index, as values for pre-owned luxury timepieces surged, a new report shows. The S&P 500 stock index averaged annual returns of 8% from August 2018 to January 2023 while a basket of pre-owned watch models from top Swiss brands grew at more than twice the pace, the report from Boston Consulting Group Inc. and secondary market dealer WatchBox said. That’s despite prices of some pre-owned models, including Rolex Daytonas, Patek Nautilus and AP Royal Oaks, declining by as much as a third since the market peaked in the first quarter of 2022. Prices for a basket of so-called independent brand watches including FP Journe, H. Moser & Cie and De Bethune — a small Swiss producer which is majority owned by WatchBox — returned 15% over the same period. The report touts luxury watches as an alternative asset class to stocks, bonds, art and wine. Over a longer period, stocks outperformed watches as an investment asset. The S&P 500 had a compound annual growth rate of 12% between 2012 and 2022, while Rolex, Patek and AP watches averaged 7%.
Bottom-line: 모하마드 엘 에리안은 실리콘밸리은행이 촉발한 위험이 다른 금융기관으로 전염 될 위험을 일축했음. 전반적인 미국 은행 체제가 견고하기 때문임. 물론 소수의 은행은 이에 포함되지 않을 수 있고, 특히 레버리지를 팽창하던 시기를 지난 후, 금리 및 신용 양쪽 모두에 취약한 은행이 그렇다고 함. 그는 또한 제롬 파월 의장을 비판했는데, 그가 한 발언은 경제와 금융 양쪽 모두가 위험에 처할 수 있는 변동성을 확대시키는 원인을 제공했다고 함.
US banks can contain contagion risk and system stress stemming from the turmoil unleashed by Silicon Valley Bank, Mohamed El-Erian said. “Contagion risk and the systemic threat can be easily contained by careful balance sheet management and avoiding more policy mistakes,” El-Erian, the chairman of Gramercy Funds and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, said in a tweet on Friday. At the same time, while the US banking system “is solid as a whole, and it is, that does not mean that every bank is,” he said. “Due to the volatility in yields after the prior protracted period of leverage-enabling policy, the most vulnerable (banks) currently are those vulnerable to both interest rate and credit risk,” he said. His comments followed this week’s surprise announcement from Santa Clara, California-based SVB that it was issuing $2.25 billion of shares to bolster its capital position after a significant loss on its investment portfolio. El-Erian has been vocal in his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, saying his comments after FOMC meetings have fueled considerable volatility in markets that could risk both economic well-being and financial stability.
US banks can contain contagion risk and system stress stemming from the turmoil unleashed by Silicon Valley Bank, Mohamed El-Erian said. “Contagion risk and the systemic threat can be easily contained by careful balance sheet management and avoiding more policy mistakes,” El-Erian, the chairman of Gramercy Funds and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, said in a tweet on Friday. At the same time, while the US banking system “is solid as a whole, and it is, that does not mean that every bank is,” he said. “Due to the volatility in yields after the prior protracted period of leverage-enabling policy, the most vulnerable (banks) currently are those vulnerable to both interest rate and credit risk,” he said. His comments followed this week’s surprise announcement from Santa Clara, California-based SVB that it was issuing $2.25 billion of shares to bolster its capital position after a significant loss on its investment portfolio. El-Erian has been vocal in his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, saying his comments after FOMC meetings have fueled considerable volatility in markets that could risk both economic well-being and financial stability.
Bottom-line: 골드만삭스는 목요일 은행 주식이 최근 25년간 세번째로 가장 큰 폭의 일일 하락을 보인데 대해 보고서를 작성함. 결론은 소형 은행이 대형 은행으로 위험을 전이시킬 가능성은 낮고, 대량의 매도를 비중 확대 기회로 활용하라 권고함. 이런 주장에는 세 가지 근거가 있는데, i) 지방은행이 투자등급 회사채 시장에서 차지하는 비중은 1.5%에 불과함. ii) 지방은행은 점유율이 낮고 그들 자체도 상당히 분산되어 있음. iii) 금융위기 이후 감독기관에서 시행 된 강력한 규제를 고려할 때, 자산과 부채의 불일치에 따른 자본금이나 유동성 위험을 경험할 가능성은 희박함.
US bank equities came under significant pressure today (Thursday) following reports that a regional lender was taking steps to raise capital in response to large losses on its securities portfolio. This episode has added to mounting concerns over potential profitability headwinds from the deep yield curve inversion. To put things in context, and leaving aside the global financial crisis, today’s move lower in the equity bank sector index is the third largest of the last 25 years, after the 2020 COVID period and August 2011 in the wake of the US government rating downgrade. In the bond market, the reaction has been far more contained. While regional banks underperformed the broader index, large US and Yankee banks were better behaved relative to their equities. We reiterate our overweight recommendation on the sector and would use any large selloff as an opportunity to add risk. Three arguments underpin this view. First, the risk of contagion from small to large banks is remote, considering the low share of regional banks in the IG index. As shown in Exhibit 2, while the banking sector does make up a large share of the USD IG market at 25% of the notional outstanding, regional domestic banks only make up 6% of the banks sector, or about 1.5% of the broader USD IG market. Second, the low share of regional banks is itself also quite diversified, with 15 issuers and no one issuer accounting for more than 20% of the notional outstanding. Lastly, we think the risk that large US or Yankee banks experience a capital or liquidity event driven by assets/liabilities mismatches or concentrated positions on securities portfolios is remote, considering the post-global financial crisis regulatory environment.
US bank equities came under significant pressure today (Thursday) following reports that a regional lender was taking steps to raise capital in response to large losses on its securities portfolio. This episode has added to mounting concerns over potential profitability headwinds from the deep yield curve inversion. To put things in context, and leaving aside the global financial crisis, today’s move lower in the equity bank sector index is the third largest of the last 25 years, after the 2020 COVID period and August 2011 in the wake of the US government rating downgrade. In the bond market, the reaction has been far more contained. While regional banks underperformed the broader index, large US and Yankee banks were better behaved relative to their equities. We reiterate our overweight recommendation on the sector and would use any large selloff as an opportunity to add risk. Three arguments underpin this view. First, the risk of contagion from small to large banks is remote, considering the low share of regional banks in the IG index. As shown in Exhibit 2, while the banking sector does make up a large share of the USD IG market at 25% of the notional outstanding, regional domestic banks only make up 6% of the banks sector, or about 1.5% of the broader USD IG market. Second, the low share of regional banks is itself also quite diversified, with 15 issuers and no one issuer accounting for more than 20% of the notional outstanding. Lastly, we think the risk that large US or Yankee banks experience a capital or liquidity event driven by assets/liabilities mismatches or concentrated positions on securities portfolios is remote, considering the post-global financial crisis regulatory environment.
Bottom-line: Xi Confirmed as Third-Term President.
Chinese lawmakers on Friday unanimously voted to give Xi Jinping a third term as president, completing his quest for continued supreme power to lead the world’s No. 2 economy.
Chinese lawmakers on Friday unanimously voted to give Xi Jinping a third term as president, completing his quest for continued supreme power to lead the world’s No. 2 economy.