Bottom-line: 얼마전까지만도 유럽 중앙은행의 금리인상이 50bp가 될 것이라데 의심의 여지가 없었지만, 실리콘밸리은행과 크레딧스위스 위기로 인해 오늘의 금리결정이 중요한 시사점을 가지게 되었음.
Things looked straight-forward until a few days ago. Officials had all but pre-announced another 50 basis-point interest-rate increase. Inflation data since then only cemented that commitment, and investors had little reason to doubt them. Then Silicon Valley Bank collapsed and Credit Suisse was hit by a confidence crisis, leading to a rapid re-pricing of ECB interest-rate bets and calling into question the outcome of the meeting.
Things looked straight-forward until a few days ago. Officials had all but pre-announced another 50 basis-point interest-rate increase. Inflation data since then only cemented that commitment, and investors had little reason to doubt them. Then Silicon Valley Bank collapsed and Credit Suisse was hit by a confidence crisis, leading to a rapid re-pricing of ECB interest-rate bets and calling into question the outcome of the meeting.
Bottom-line: 유럽 중앙은행의 50bp 금리인상은 금융시장의 변동성보다 인플레이션에 대한 우려가 더 작용한 것임.
We have a half-point hike, in line with earlier guidance. It seems like inflation concerns outweighed the dramatic moves in financial markets.
We have a half-point hike, in line with earlier guidance. It seems like inflation concerns outweighed the dramatic moves in financial markets.
Bottom-line: 성명서의 첫 문구는 명확함. 인플레이션이 너무 오래 너무 높게 유지될 위험이 있음.
The first sentence of the policy statement is very clear: “Inflation is projected to remain too high for too long.”
The first sentence of the policy statement is very clear: “Inflation is projected to remain too high for too long.”
Bottom-line: 다만, 향후 어떤 형태로 정책을 가져갈지에 대한 언급은 없었고, 이는 최근까지의 관행과 다른 형태임.
However, we’re not getting any guidance on the next steps. That’s a departure from recent practice.
However, we’re not getting any guidance on the next steps. That’s a departure from recent practice.
Bottom-line: 향후 어떤 방향으로 움직일 것이란 언급은 없지만, 인플레이션을 잘 통제하겠다는데 목표를 두고 있어 보이며, 연료 및 식품을 제외 한 물가 전망치를 올해 4.6% 상승으로 상향 수정했음.
There is no flagging of future intentions. Worth noting the stress on underlying inflation in the data-dependent approach - and the ECB revised up its 2023 forecast for inflation excluding energy and food to 4.6%.
There is no flagging of future intentions. Worth noting the stress on underlying inflation in the data-dependent approach - and the ECB revised up its 2023 forecast for inflation excluding energy and food to 4.6%.
Market Reaction: 50bp의 금리인상에도 불구하고 유럽 중앙은행의 최종 정책금리에 대한 시장 가격 책정은 성명서 발표 전과 동일한 수준임. 유로화 또한 최저치를 기록 중인데, 정책 입안자들이 잘못 된 정책을 하고 있을 수 있다는 우려를 반영한다고 볼 수 있음.
Despite the half-point move from the ECB, terminal-rate pricing stays close to pre-statement levels, now seen just 11bps higher. Two-year German bond yields erase an advance and trade little changed at 2.42%. The euro hits fresh day low at $1.0551. The fact that the euro fails to rally could be seen as an expression of concern over a policy mistake.
Despite the half-point move from the ECB, terminal-rate pricing stays close to pre-statement levels, now seen just 11bps higher. Two-year German bond yields erase an advance and trade little changed at 2.42%. The euro hits fresh day low at $1.0551. The fact that the euro fails to rally could be seen as an expression of concern over a policy mistake.
Bottom-line: 성명문에는 유동성 관리에 대해서도 언급이 없었고, 금융 시장에 대한 지원을 필요할 경우 하겠다고 밝혔음. 다만, 그러한 지원의 도구나 방법이 무엇이 될지에 대한 치열한 질문을 받게 될 것으로 예상됨.
The ECB didn’t announce any tweaks to its liquidity framework, let alone a new program. Instead, the statement refers to a toolkit that’s “fully equipped” to support the financial system if needed. Lagarde will probably face questions on what measures the central bank would consider in case of stress.
The ECB didn’t announce any tweaks to its liquidity framework, let alone a new program. Instead, the statement refers to a toolkit that’s “fully equipped” to support the financial system if needed. Lagarde will probably face questions on what measures the central bank would consider in case of stress.
The market clearly sees this is as a dovish hike, mainly because of the ECB’s decision to exclude any guidance of further rate hikes.
Bottom-line: 유럽 중앙은행은 작금의 금융기관 위기가 확산되지 않고 해결될 것이라 자신하고 있음. 여전히 높은 인플레이션 때문에 최정 정책금리는 여전히 높다고 할 수 있음. 미국 중앙은행의 금리결정 과정도 유사할 수 있을 것임.
The ECB is confident that the current crisis surrounding Credit Suisse will be resolved without morphing into something of sinister proportions. With inflation this year estimated to be 5.3%, its terminal rate is still higher -- no matter how tenuous that may look against the current macroeconomic backdrop. The read-across is that the Fed may be similarly inclined to raise rates should -- and that’s a big “should” -- the dust settle between now and when it meets. And it’s not just the Fed. We have the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank meeting next week too.
The ECB is confident that the current crisis surrounding Credit Suisse will be resolved without morphing into something of sinister proportions. With inflation this year estimated to be 5.3%, its terminal rate is still higher -- no matter how tenuous that may look against the current macroeconomic backdrop. The read-across is that the Fed may be similarly inclined to raise rates should -- and that’s a big “should” -- the dust settle between now and when it meets. And it’s not just the Fed. We have the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank meeting next week too.
Bottom-line: Avengers Assemble.
The US's biggest banks agreed to deposit $30 billion with First Republic in an effort to stem the market turmoil. JPMorgan, BofA, Citi and Wells Fargo will contribute $5 billion of uninsured deposits each, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley will kick in $2.5 billion apiece. Others will deposit smaller amounts. The news helped First Republic shares rebound from a 36% loss.
The US's biggest banks agreed to deposit $30 billion with First Republic in an effort to stem the market turmoil. JPMorgan, BofA, Citi and Wells Fargo will contribute $5 billion of uninsured deposits each, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley will kick in $2.5 billion apiece. Others will deposit smaller amounts. The news helped First Republic shares rebound from a 36% loss.
Things To Know: 매일 시장 가치로 평가 받지 않는 자산에 대해 그 가치를 더 높게 주고 받았던 시기가 지나고, 이제 초기 거래 시점의 가치로 돌아갈만큼 평가를 상각하는 일이 발생하고 있음. 이는 주로 유동성에 의한 자산가격 팽창이 사그러드는 후기에 나타나는 일임.
Tiger Global Management marked down the investments in its venture funds by about 33% last year, resulting in a $23 billion decline in value, according to a person familiar with the matter. Around $9 billion of the markdown came in the second half of the year, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. A representative for the New York-based firm declined to comment. In late November, Bloomberg reported that Tiger Global, which also manages hedge and long-only funds, had marked down the value of its private funds by almost a quarter. The full-year figures for the venture unit, led by Scott Shleifer, were reported earlier Thursday by the Wall Street Journal.
Tiger Global Management marked down the investments in its venture funds by about 33% last year, resulting in a $23 billion decline in value, according to a person familiar with the matter. Around $9 billion of the markdown came in the second half of the year, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. A representative for the New York-based firm declined to comment. In late November, Bloomberg reported that Tiger Global, which also manages hedge and long-only funds, had marked down the value of its private funds by almost a quarter. The full-year figures for the venture unit, led by Scott Shleifer, were reported earlier Thursday by the Wall Street Journal.
China’s central bank cut the amount of money banks have to keep in reserve in an effort to stimulate the economy. The 0.25 percentage point cut will apply to almost all banks and take effect from March 27, the People’s Bank of China said Friday.
Bottom-line: 미시간 대학의 소비자 조사에 따르면, 소비자들의 물가 기대가 단기와 장기 모두 낮아졌음. 단기의 경우 2년래 최저치인 3.8% 물가 상승 전망, 장기의 경우 6개월래 최저치인 2.8% 물가 상승으로 조사 되었음.
US short-term inflation expectations fell in early March to the lowest level in nearly two years and long-run views also eased, but consumer sentiment still fell due to persistently high prices. Respondents said they expect inflation to rise 3.8% over the next year, the lowest reading since April 2021, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary reading. They expect prices to advance 2.8% over the next five to ten years, the lowest in six months.
US short-term inflation expectations fell in early March to the lowest level in nearly two years and long-run views also eased, but consumer sentiment still fell due to persistently high prices. Respondents said they expect inflation to rise 3.8% over the next year, the lowest reading since April 2021, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary reading. They expect prices to advance 2.8% over the next five to ten years, the lowest in six months.
Life & Arts: Why children can be better than adults at spotting misinformation.
어린 아이들이 성인보다 잘못 된 정보를 더 잘 발견할 수 있다는 주장이 놀라운 파이낸셜 타임즈의 내용임. 유년 시절 산타클로스와 루돌프의 이야기를 믿는 아이들이 어른보다 나을 것이라 믿기 어려울 수 있지만, 현재 세상에 유포되고 있는 수 많은 거짓과 음모론의 근본은 아무것도 믿지 않는 것(because they start by trusting nothing.)에서 시작된다는 것을 생각해 볼 필요가 있음. 이 글에서 사람들에게 세상을 이해할 때 세 가지 'C'를 강조하는데, 차분함(Calm), 맥락(Context), 호기심(Curiosity)임. 감정적인 반응을 제거하고, 맥락이 없는 숫자를 버리고, 이해하고 싶어하는 호기심이 중요하다는 뜻임. 아이들은 어떨까? 아이들에게 맥락을 기대하긴 어렵지만, 성인보다 덜 논쟁하고 감정을 소모하지 않기 때문에 차분할 수 있으며, 놀라울 정도로 호기심이 깊음. 우리는 종종 호기심의 가치를 과소평가 함(We adults underrate the value of this curiosity.). 우리의 무지의 근원을 생각해보면, 답을 알고 싶어 질문하는 호기심이 사라져 있기 때문(we don’t ask questions because we don’t care to know the answers.)일 수도 있음. 어린 아이들은 호기심을 가지고 진실을 탐정처럼 찾고자 하는 열망이 있기 때문에 잘못 된 정보를 발견하는데 더 적합하다는 주장임. 무언가를 탐색하는 것이 우리가 누릴 수 있는 기쁨 중 하나라는 사실(The sleuthing is part of the joy.)을 잊지 말았으면 함. 세상을 이해하려는 노력과 호기심을 성인들은 잊어버리곤 하기 때문에, 언제나 스스로를 되돌아 볼 필요가 있음.
어린 아이들이 성인보다 잘못 된 정보를 더 잘 발견할 수 있다는 주장이 놀라운 파이낸셜 타임즈의 내용임. 유년 시절 산타클로스와 루돌프의 이야기를 믿는 아이들이 어른보다 나을 것이라 믿기 어려울 수 있지만, 현재 세상에 유포되고 있는 수 많은 거짓과 음모론의 근본은 아무것도 믿지 않는 것(because they start by trusting nothing.)에서 시작된다는 것을 생각해 볼 필요가 있음. 이 글에서 사람들에게 세상을 이해할 때 세 가지 'C'를 강조하는데, 차분함(Calm), 맥락(Context), 호기심(Curiosity)임. 감정적인 반응을 제거하고, 맥락이 없는 숫자를 버리고, 이해하고 싶어하는 호기심이 중요하다는 뜻임. 아이들은 어떨까? 아이들에게 맥락을 기대하긴 어렵지만, 성인보다 덜 논쟁하고 감정을 소모하지 않기 때문에 차분할 수 있으며, 놀라울 정도로 호기심이 깊음. 우리는 종종 호기심의 가치를 과소평가 함(We adults underrate the value of this curiosity.). 우리의 무지의 근원을 생각해보면, 답을 알고 싶어 질문하는 호기심이 사라져 있기 때문(we don’t ask questions because we don’t care to know the answers.)일 수도 있음. 어린 아이들은 호기심을 가지고 진실을 탐정처럼 찾고자 하는 열망이 있기 때문에 잘못 된 정보를 발견하는데 더 적합하다는 주장임. 무언가를 탐색하는 것이 우리가 누릴 수 있는 기쁨 중 하나라는 사실(The sleuthing is part of the joy.)을 잊지 말았으면 함. 세상을 이해하려는 노력과 호기심을 성인들은 잊어버리곤 하기 때문에, 언제나 스스로를 되돌아 볼 필요가 있음.