Bottom-line: 재무부장관 옐런은 은행의 예금 보호와 관련하여 하루 전과 달라진 발언을 했음. 그녀가 준비한 발표문에서는 필요할 경우 예금을 보호하기 위한 추가 수단을 준비할 수도 있다함.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told US lawmakers on Thursday that regulators would be prepared for further steps to protect deposits if warranted, in new language that differs from her prepared remarks to the Senate a day earlier. Reading prepared remarks that were almost identical to Wednesday’s, Yellen repeated her comment that the government’s recent actions were “taken to ensure that Americans’ deposits are safe". She followed that with a new line: “Certainly, we would be prepared to take additional actions if warranted.”
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told US lawmakers on Thursday that regulators would be prepared for further steps to protect deposits if warranted, in new language that differs from her prepared remarks to the Senate a day earlier. Reading prepared remarks that were almost identical to Wednesday’s, Yellen repeated her comment that the government’s recent actions were “taken to ensure that Americans’ deposits are safe". She followed that with a new line: “Certainly, we would be prepared to take additional actions if warranted.”
Docent: 불확실성과 변동성이 클 때, 투자자들은 그 속에 진실을 찾고 기회를 얻으려 끊임없는 시도를 함. 이것이 과연 옳은 일인가에 대한 도슨트임. 최근 투자자산 시장의 다양한 일들이 시장 참여자들을 자극하며 무언가 행동하게 만들었지만, 대부분의 결과는 실수로 이어졌을 것임. 은행의 위기 속에서도 S&P 500 지수는 2주 연속 상승했고, 국채 또한 경기침체에서부터 50bp의 금리인상, 다시 금융시스템 위기까지 40년래 가장 높은 변동을 무시했다면 상당한 수익을 거둘 수 있었음. 불확실성이 클 때 귀를 닫고 할 수 있는 공부에 최선을 다하고 성급하게 큰 기회를 잡으려 뛰어들지 말라는 조언이 있음. 제이피모건이 자료에서 블라디미르 레닌을 인용하며 “수십년 간 아무일도 일어나지 않을 수도, 단 몇 주 사이 수십년 간의 일이 일어날 수도 있다.“고 표현한 것처럼, 현재 시장은 엄청난 불협화음 속에 있음. 의견이 엇갈리는 현상이 이 시장의 기본적 특성이지만, 분석가들의 S&P 500 지수의 연말 목표치는 47%의 괴리를 보이며 20년래 최대치를 보이고 있음. 국채 시장 또한 중앙은행의 확고한 발언과 반대로 연말까지 100bp 가량의 금리인하에 돈을 걸고 있음. 이런 잡음 사이에서 최근 11영업일 간 국채 가격은 강세론자와 약세론자 모두에게 피해를 줬음. 현금을 많이 보유한 대형 기술주를 필두로 올해의 자산으로 두각을 드러내고 있는 나스닥 100 지수도 연 초 이후 +17% 가까이 상승했지만, 중요한 점은 최고의 5일을 놓쳤다면 이 수익률은 +1%, 최악의 5일을 피했다면 +28%가 되어 있었을 것임. 우리는 지금, 일어나는 모든 일을 알고 통제하며 그 판에 뛰어들어야 할까?
The plot twists in markets have lately been riveting. The urge to react has been intense. Doing so has mostly been a mistake. The S&P 500 just capped its second straight up week, and while Treasuries have dealt body blows to short sellers, holding on through the worst volatility in four decades would’ve reaped sizable profits. Closing your ears to cacophony is standard investment advice that is often borne out. “Panicking never pays,” says April LaRusse, head of investment specialists at Insight Investments. “The smartest thing to do when you have a lot of uncertainty is to sit back and gather information and do your analysis and not jump trying to make big changes". “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen,” Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., wrote in a note, alluding to a quotation by Vladimir Lenin. While split opinions are a constant feature in investing, the extent of the divergence has rarely been this broad. In the equity market, the gap between the highest and lowest year-end target for the S&P 500 is 47%, the widest at this time of year in two decades, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Conflict is also on display in fixed income. Even as Powell insisted Wednesday that rate cuts are not his “base case,” bond traders stuck to bets that the central bank will reverse course this year. Swap rates linked to policy meeting dates now show cuts totaling about one percentage point by year-end. Ever-changing views of the economy and Fed have underpinned an almost unprecedented stretch of turbulence in government bonds. For an 11th session through Thursday, two-year Treasury yields moved more than 10 basis points, a run of wild swings not seen since 1981. Among these sessions, seven were up and four down, exerting pain for bulls and bears alike. Amid all the confusion and volatility, the Nasdaq 100 has stood out as one of the best-performing assets this year, thanks to the dominance of cash-rich tech megacaps. While the index is up almost 17%, getting there has been stomach-churning. Bad timing can be punishing: missing the best five days would have left investors with a gain of only 1%. Excluding the worst five days, the Nasdaq 100 would be up 28% this year to date.
The plot twists in markets have lately been riveting. The urge to react has been intense. Doing so has mostly been a mistake. The S&P 500 just capped its second straight up week, and while Treasuries have dealt body blows to short sellers, holding on through the worst volatility in four decades would’ve reaped sizable profits. Closing your ears to cacophony is standard investment advice that is often borne out. “Panicking never pays,” says April LaRusse, head of investment specialists at Insight Investments. “The smartest thing to do when you have a lot of uncertainty is to sit back and gather information and do your analysis and not jump trying to make big changes". “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen,” Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., wrote in a note, alluding to a quotation by Vladimir Lenin. While split opinions are a constant feature in investing, the extent of the divergence has rarely been this broad. In the equity market, the gap between the highest and lowest year-end target for the S&P 500 is 47%, the widest at this time of year in two decades, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Conflict is also on display in fixed income. Even as Powell insisted Wednesday that rate cuts are not his “base case,” bond traders stuck to bets that the central bank will reverse course this year. Swap rates linked to policy meeting dates now show cuts totaling about one percentage point by year-end. Ever-changing views of the economy and Fed have underpinned an almost unprecedented stretch of turbulence in government bonds. For an 11th session through Thursday, two-year Treasury yields moved more than 10 basis points, a run of wild swings not seen since 1981. Among these sessions, seven were up and four down, exerting pain for bulls and bears alike. Amid all the confusion and volatility, the Nasdaq 100 has stood out as one of the best-performing assets this year, thanks to the dominance of cash-rich tech megacaps. While the index is up almost 17%, getting there has been stomach-churning. Bad timing can be punishing: missing the best five days would have left investors with a gain of only 1%. Excluding the worst five days, the Nasdaq 100 would be up 28% this year to date.
First Citizens Bank & Trust agreed to buy all deposits and loans of SVB Financial Group’s Silicon Valley Bank after it was seized by regulators following a run on the lender.
Bottom-line: 신용부도스왑이 현물 주식의 가격을 움직이게 할 뿐 아니라 불안 속에 예금이 유출되도록 하는데 수백만 달러 밖에 들지 않는다는 사실을 감안하면, 전세계 금융 관련 규제 기관에서 이를 면밀히 검토해야 한다는 목소리에 동의할 수 밖에 없음. 금융안정위원회는 그동안 금융 시스템에 대해 규제와 개혁, 다양한 노력을 기울인 것을 헛되게 만들고, 투자자들을 불안에 떨게 만든 사태의 중심에 있는 신용부도스왑을 개선하려고 하고 있음. 이들은 이 상품을 매우 불투명하고, 매우 얕으며, 유동성 또한 부족함에도 불구하고 그 파급력이 너무 크다고 평가하고 있음. 이를 개선시키기 위해 거래를 금지하거나 새로운 규칙을 만드는 최후의 수단보다는 예를 들어, 장외거래가 아닌 중앙 거래소를 통해 결제와 청산이 이루어지도록 하는 등의 방법을 검토 중이라 밝힘.
Global financial regulators should take a closer look at credit default swaps after relatively small transactions in the market amplified last week’s banking turmoil, according to the European Central Bank’s top oversight official. The Financial Stability Board, which brings together authorities from around the world, could review “how these markets really work,” said Andrea Enria, who leads the ECB’s Supervisory Board. The collapse of several US banks and rescue of Credit Suisse Group AG earlier this month has investors on edge as they question whether other lenders could suffer from rising rates or other pressures. European regulators have sought to underline that they have a close watch on risks and that their banks are on a sounder footing. “Notwithstanding all the efforts we have made with regulatory reform, we see that there are markets like the single name CDS market which are very opaque, very shallow, very illiquid,” said Enria. “With a few millions, you can move the CDS spreads” of a major bank “and contaminate also stock prices and possibly also deposit outflows,” he said, without naming any banks. Speaking at a conference hosted by German newspaper Handelsblatt, Enria suggested that improving the degree of information on the CDS market may be a better course of action for authorities than prohibitions or new rules. “It’s always the last resort for a supervisor to intervene,” he said. “If you had good transparency, for example having these markets all centrally cleared rather than have OTC (over the counter) opaque transactions where you don’t know who is trading, I think that would be already great progress.”
Global financial regulators should take a closer look at credit default swaps after relatively small transactions in the market amplified last week’s banking turmoil, according to the European Central Bank’s top oversight official. The Financial Stability Board, which brings together authorities from around the world, could review “how these markets really work,” said Andrea Enria, who leads the ECB’s Supervisory Board. The collapse of several US banks and rescue of Credit Suisse Group AG earlier this month has investors on edge as they question whether other lenders could suffer from rising rates or other pressures. European regulators have sought to underline that they have a close watch on risks and that their banks are on a sounder footing. “Notwithstanding all the efforts we have made with regulatory reform, we see that there are markets like the single name CDS market which are very opaque, very shallow, very illiquid,” said Enria. “With a few millions, you can move the CDS spreads” of a major bank “and contaminate also stock prices and possibly also deposit outflows,” he said, without naming any banks. Speaking at a conference hosted by German newspaper Handelsblatt, Enria suggested that improving the degree of information on the CDS market may be a better course of action for authorities than prohibitions or new rules. “It’s always the last resort for a supervisor to intervene,” he said. “If you had good transparency, for example having these markets all centrally cleared rather than have OTC (over the counter) opaque transactions where you don’t know who is trading, I think that would be already great progress.”
Bottom-line: 골드만삭스는 보고서를 통해 현재 성장주를 투자한다면 기업 이익률이 보장되는 성장주를 보유하고, 이익을 내지 못하는 성장주를 피하라고 권고함. 작년 12월 30일부터 2월 1일까지 실질금리가 -44bp 하락하고, 그 이후 3월 8일부터 3월 24일까지 -50bp 추가로 실질금리가 하락했지만, 그 양상은 달랐다는 것임. 특히 현재 주식시장에서는 경제를 자신하고, 채권시장에서는 경제를 비관하고 있기 때문에 이 둘 중 어떤 경우라도 이익률이 좋은 성장주를 보유함이 우세한 전략이란 것임. i) 경제가 좋아서 실질금리가 다시 상승할 경우 수익이 없는 성장주가 가치 할인되어 거래 될 것이며, ii) 경제가 좋지 않을 경우 전통적으로 투자자들은 질적으로 높은 가치를 가지는 주식을 선호했기 때문임. 다만, 이 전략의 가장 큰 위험은 경제가 좋지 않은 가운데 중앙은행이 온건한 통화정책 기조를 유지하는 것임.
The decline in bond yields has supported growth stocks YTD but with wide variation. Looking ahead, we recommend investors own high-margin growth stocks and avoid low-margin growth stocks, given the current resilient economic growth pricing within equity markets but pessimistic pricing in rates markets. If the economy avoids recession, real yields are likely to rise and low-margin growth stock valuations are more sensitive to higher yields. If the economy enters recession, equity market pricing of growth will likely deteriorate and history suggests investors will reward "quality" attributes, including high-margin stocks. The key risk to this trade is that current equity market pricing of a contained economic slowdown but a dovish Fed persists.
The decline in bond yields has supported growth stocks YTD but with wide variation. Looking ahead, we recommend investors own high-margin growth stocks and avoid low-margin growth stocks, given the current resilient economic growth pricing within equity markets but pessimistic pricing in rates markets. If the economy avoids recession, real yields are likely to rise and low-margin growth stock valuations are more sensitive to higher yields. If the economy enters recession, equity market pricing of growth will likely deteriorate and history suggests investors will reward "quality" attributes, including high-margin stocks. The key risk to this trade is that current equity market pricing of a contained economic slowdown but a dovish Fed persists.
Bottom-line: 물가가 예상보다 낮아지고 소비도 안정되면서 근래 가장 공격적인 금리인상이 막바지에 왔음을 알리는 신호로 작용함.
A key gauge of US inflation stepped down last month by more than expected and consumer spending stabilized, suggesting the Federal Reserve may be close to ending its most aggressive cycle of interest-rate hikes in decades.
A key gauge of US inflation stepped down last month by more than expected and consumer spending stabilized, suggesting the Federal Reserve may be close to ending its most aggressive cycle of interest-rate hikes in decades.
Bottom-line: 주식 시장은 회의론자, 불신자로 가득 차 있으며, 이것이 주가가 계속 상승하는 이유가 될 수 있음. 투자자들의 주식에 대한 배분은 18년래 최저치를 기록하고, 닷컴 거품 이후 가장 오랜 기간인 15개월 연속 5% 이상의 현금을 보유하고 있으며, 경기침체를 감안한 거래를 이어가고 있음. 하지만 모두가 한 방향을 이야기할 때면 반대 방향으로의 큰 변동이 발생하기 쉬운 법이며, S&P 500 지수가 그것을 보여줬는데, 올해 1분기도 +7% 상승 마감하면서 14번의 약세장 중 단 두 번 있었던(1938년과 1981년) 일을 40년만에 재현했음. 이처럼 주식시장의 상승은 시가총액을 4조 달러 가까이 증가시켰지만 여전히 비관론자들이 많은 상태임. 하지만 주식시장의 상승 기간이 길어지면서, 과연 약세장의 반등 정도에 그치는게 맞는지에 대한 의문이 커지고 있음. 주식시장이 놀라울 정도로 강한 힘을 보여주고 있는데 반해 투자자들의 주식 보유 규모는 턱없이 가벼운 상태에 있고, 투자자들이 움직이기 시작한다면, 그 변화는 매우 빠르게 나타날 수 있을 것임.
Skeptics, cranks, disbelievers. The stock market is overrun with them. It may be one of the reasons equities keep rising. Rarely has the consensus been more uniformly bearish than it is now. Investors are sitting with the lowest allocation to US stocks in almost two decades, have kept cash holdings high for the longest stretch since the dot-com crash and are embracing recession trades more than any time since 2020. But when everyone’s leaning one way, big swings are apt to break out in the other, as the consensus is strained and people give in. Small gains can snowball when the worry is missing out on the next big rally. Lately the concern has been warranted. The S&P 500 just finished the first three months of the year up 7%, rounding out back-to-back quarterly gains. That hasn’t happened during any bear market in the past four decades. Pessimists abound, even after a rally that has added $4 trillion in equity values over nearly six months. The duration of equity strength is getting hard to ignore and calls into question the claim that this rally is nothing but a bear market bounce, a view shared by top-ranked strategists such as Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic. Of the 14 previous bear markets, only two saw the S&P 500 experience back-to-back quarterly gains, in 1981 and 1938. Put another way, history is not on the side of bears when stock momentum is as strong as it has been. “Equities are remarkably resilient. Positioning remains very light,” Reiner wrote in a note. “We all need to ask, is sentiment shifting around the edges? If so, investors need to start making their bets. Real fast.”
Skeptics, cranks, disbelievers. The stock market is overrun with them. It may be one of the reasons equities keep rising. Rarely has the consensus been more uniformly bearish than it is now. Investors are sitting with the lowest allocation to US stocks in almost two decades, have kept cash holdings high for the longest stretch since the dot-com crash and are embracing recession trades more than any time since 2020. But when everyone’s leaning one way, big swings are apt to break out in the other, as the consensus is strained and people give in. Small gains can snowball when the worry is missing out on the next big rally. Lately the concern has been warranted. The S&P 500 just finished the first three months of the year up 7%, rounding out back-to-back quarterly gains. That hasn’t happened during any bear market in the past four decades. Pessimists abound, even after a rally that has added $4 trillion in equity values over nearly six months. The duration of equity strength is getting hard to ignore and calls into question the claim that this rally is nothing but a bear market bounce, a view shared by top-ranked strategists such as Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic. Of the 14 previous bear markets, only two saw the S&P 500 experience back-to-back quarterly gains, in 1981 and 1938. Put another way, history is not on the side of bears when stock momentum is as strong as it has been. “Equities are remarkably resilient. Positioning remains very light,” Reiner wrote in a note. “We all need to ask, is sentiment shifting around the edges? If so, investors need to start making their bets. Real fast.”
Bottom-line: 크리스찬 디올의 가을 패션쇼가 지난 3월 30일 인도 뭄바이에서 열렸고, 당일 지배회사인 LVMH의 주가가 새로운 고점을 갱신함. 디올의 패션쇼에 인도를 추가하는 결정을 내린데는 부상하는 국가의 부와 그에 따른 소비여력이 충분한 소비자에 있다고 볼 수 있는데, 조사에 따르면 인도는 119명의 억만장자가 있고, 2018년부터 2022년 사이 매일 70명의 백만장자가 탄생했다고 함. 인구 14억에 이르는 이 국가는 부와 소비를 위한 충분한 성장 잠재력을 가지고 있음에도 불구하고 개척되지 않은 시장이라는 점을 주목하고 있음.
Christian Dior Couture showcased its Fall 2023 collection in Mumbai on March 30, becoming the first fashion house to unveil the latest lines in India as luxury brands tap new markets in a hunt for their next billions. Everything from sari-inspired skirts to boleros to vibrantly colored outfits in silks, including those in an Indian pink, were on display, with the Gateway of India as the backdrop in the show led by Dior’s first female creative director, Maria Grazia Chiuri. Parent group LVMH’s shares rose as much as 1% to 838.7 euros ($913), touching a record high during market hours on Friday. Dior, the second-biggest brand of billionaire Bernard Arnault’s French luxury behemoth LVMH, and the decision to add India to its seasonal schedule shows a rising interest to tap the nation’s rising wealth. India currently has 119 billionaires, according to Oxfam, with the country estimated to produce 70 new millionaires every day between 2018 and 2022. It also points to Dior’s ability to bring entry-level buyers into the LVMH realm — a rising group of spenders, especially in the country of 1.4 billion people, through its cosmetics to perfumes to bags offerings. “It’s a hugely untapped market with middle class on the rise and lots more and lots more, by the year, millionaires,” says Deborah Aitken, senior analyst for luxury goods at Bloomberg Intelligence. “It’s vibrant, it’s new design, new color, new technologies into the luxury space, which is hugely needed“.
Christian Dior Couture showcased its Fall 2023 collection in Mumbai on March 30, becoming the first fashion house to unveil the latest lines in India as luxury brands tap new markets in a hunt for their next billions. Everything from sari-inspired skirts to boleros to vibrantly colored outfits in silks, including those in an Indian pink, were on display, with the Gateway of India as the backdrop in the show led by Dior’s first female creative director, Maria Grazia Chiuri. Parent group LVMH’s shares rose as much as 1% to 838.7 euros ($913), touching a record high during market hours on Friday. Dior, the second-biggest brand of billionaire Bernard Arnault’s French luxury behemoth LVMH, and the decision to add India to its seasonal schedule shows a rising interest to tap the nation’s rising wealth. India currently has 119 billionaires, according to Oxfam, with the country estimated to produce 70 new millionaires every day between 2018 and 2022. It also points to Dior’s ability to bring entry-level buyers into the LVMH realm — a rising group of spenders, especially in the country of 1.4 billion people, through its cosmetics to perfumes to bags offerings. “It’s a hugely untapped market with middle class on the rise and lots more and lots more, by the year, millionaires,” says Deborah Aitken, senior analyst for luxury goods at Bloomberg Intelligence. “It’s vibrant, it’s new design, new color, new technologies into the luxury space, which is hugely needed“.
Bottom-line: 단기에 금리가 상승하면서 기업들이 가능한 최대로 대출을 통해 자금을 조달하는 것을 피하고 있음. 자금조달 시장은 지난 1분기 4,930억 달러로 전년 대비 -43% 감소한 실적을 냈고, 이는 2010년 이후 최저 수준의 신디케이트론 실적임. 특히 다수 은행의 부실 이후 은행도 대출 태도가 급격하게 악화되었고, 최근 악화 된 경제환경에 따라 기업이 자금을 차입하는 동인 중 하나인 인수합병 거래도 큰 폭으로 감소했음. 전문가는 2분기 이후 조달 시장이 활력을 찾길 기대하지만 이 또한 경제 상황과 투자자들의 심리에 달려있음.
Faced with soaring interest rates and market whiplash, companies are turning away from the loan market in a way that hasn’t been seen this decade. Companies are delaying borrowing if they can, given how quickly rates have climbed in recent months, analysts say. Global sales of syndicated loans fell 43% in the first quarter to $493 billion, the lowest since 2010. “The new issue loan market was previously a Scoobie Doo ghost town, especially after the bank failures,” said Scott Macklin, director of leveraged loans at AllianceBernstein. “Now loan buyers are returning in droves, though there are few new loans available". What’s more, several banks organizing corporate financing withdrew plans to bring loans to market last month and M&A activity, a big driver of loan sales, has slowed dramatically. It’s not clear how long the trend will last. Loan deals could pick up in the second quarter, as market risk-on sentiment returns as worries surrounding the bank sector fade. The US leveraged loan market has multiple deals with commitments due this week, three of them that emerged on Monday. “M&A may be a use of built-up corporate cash balances, we believe, though a souring economic outlook could temper appetite for deals,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Neil Sipes and Alison Williams wrote in a note on Monday.
Faced with soaring interest rates and market whiplash, companies are turning away from the loan market in a way that hasn’t been seen this decade. Companies are delaying borrowing if they can, given how quickly rates have climbed in recent months, analysts say. Global sales of syndicated loans fell 43% in the first quarter to $493 billion, the lowest since 2010. “The new issue loan market was previously a Scoobie Doo ghost town, especially after the bank failures,” said Scott Macklin, director of leveraged loans at AllianceBernstein. “Now loan buyers are returning in droves, though there are few new loans available". What’s more, several banks organizing corporate financing withdrew plans to bring loans to market last month and M&A activity, a big driver of loan sales, has slowed dramatically. It’s not clear how long the trend will last. Loan deals could pick up in the second quarter, as market risk-on sentiment returns as worries surrounding the bank sector fade. The US leveraged loan market has multiple deals with commitments due this week, three of them that emerged on Monday. “M&A may be a use of built-up corporate cash balances, we believe, though a souring economic outlook could temper appetite for deals,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Neil Sipes and Alison Williams wrote in a note on Monday.