Who’s the Boss: Central Banks or Forward Guidance? As financial markets gird themselves for the first ECB rate hike since 2011, there are still plenty of uncertainties surrounding Thursday’s policy announcement. Will it be 25 bps or 50? The official forward guidance has steered expectations firmly toward a smaller move, but recent press leaks have opened the door for a larger rise in rates. Meanwhile, there have been a few teasers pertaining to the new anti-fragmentation tool, but it’s kind of hard to escape the notion that the ECB is making things up as they go along. Perhaps they ultimately would have been better served keeping quiet until they were ready to act. Indeed, that sentiment holds for pretty much the entirety of central bank policy-making these days, and forward guidance looks like a lot more trouble than it is worth. The very basic foundation of central bank forward guidance is that it is a volatility-suppressing device. By offering up a road map of intended or projected policy action, a monetary institution can significantly reduce uncertainty, allowing investors to anchor their expectations of the future policy landscape. The impact can be profound; for the decade after the Fed first introduced calendar-based forward guidance in 2011, the peak in short-term interest rate volatility wasn’t much above the nadir of the pre-guidance era.

함의: 포워드 가이던스의 역할이 최근 중앙은행의 신뢰상실과 함께 균열되고 있다고 봄.

The S&P 500 pared gains after a report that Google would pause hiring for two weeks. This comes after the company last week said it would decelerate its recruiting efforts. The news coincided with the TICK Index falling to session lows as the largest sell programs of the day rolled through.

함의: 구글이 2주간 고용을 중단하겠다 발표하며 매도가 쏟아졌고, 상승 중이던 지수가 방향을 전환함.

Microsoft Corp. is eliminating many open job listings, including in its Azure cloud business and its security software unit, as the economy continues to weaken. The hiring freezes will continue for the foreseeable future, Microsoft said, while declining to comment further on which departments and businesses are impacted. The company said it is honoring job offers that have already been made for open roles, and will make some exceptions for critical roles. It’s an expansion of a hiring slowdown disclosed in May, which mostly affected its Windows, Office and Teams groups. 

함의: 마이크로소프트가 경기악화를 이유로 구인을 중단하겠다고 한 부문이 공개됨.

"Though we see the same world, we see it through different eyes."

- Virginia Woolf

Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said the electric-vehicle manufacturer has been through “supply chain hell,” but sees commodities prices trending lower and signaled optimism the company can achieve record volume over the rest of the year. The remarks came after the EV market leader reported second-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street estimates, reflecting Tesla’s progress in getting production back on track while tackling supply-chain hurdles and Covid lockdowns at its factory in China. “We have potential for a record-breaking second half of the year,” Musk said Wednesday on a call with analysts, noting strong June production at the company’s factories in California and Shanghai. But he cautioned that the industry has faced severe challenges securing adequate supplies of parts and materials. “It’s kind of been supply chain hell for several years,” Musk said.

함의: 테슬라 실적 발표에서 하반기 높은 생산량을 기대한다한 기저에는 오랜 기간 발목을 잡았던 공급망 병목 해소가 있음.

With recession fears mounting—and inflation, the war in Ukraine and the lingering pandemic taking a toll—many tech companies are rethinking their staffing needs, with some of them instituting hiring freezes, rescinding offers and even starting layoffs. Microsoft Corp., Google and Lyft Inc. are some of the latest companies to pull back. Microsoft said Wednesday it was eliminating many job openings. Google is pausing hiring for the next two weeks, while Lyft is shutting down a division and trimming jobs. Here’s a look at the dozens of companies that are tapping the brakes. Alphabet Inc., Google’s parent company, has been decelerating its recruiting efforts. Amazon.com Inc. said in April that it was overstaffed after ramping up during the pandemic and needed to cut back. Apple Inc. is planning to slow hiring and spending at some divisions next year. Coinbase Global Inc., a cryptocurrency exchange, told employees it was cutting 18% of staff in June to prepare for an economic downturn. Lyft told employees it was reining in hiring in May after its stock dropped precipitously. Meta Platforms Inc., the parent of Facebook, slashed plans to hire engineers by at least 30%. Microsoft told workers in May that it was slowing down hiring in the Windows, Office and Teams groups as it braces for economic volatility. Robinhood Markets Inc., the online brokerage, terminated 9% of its workforce in April. Rivian Automotive Inc. is planning to cut hundreds of non-manufacturing jobs and teams with duplicate functions. Tesla Inc., the electric-vehicle maker, cut 200 autopilot workers as it closed a facility in San Mateo, California, in June.

함의: 고용의 급격한 냉각을 보여주는 리스트.

President Joe Biden says he expects to speak to Chinese leader Xi Jinping “within the next 10 days,” as the US considers whether lifting some tariffs on Chinese imports would help stem rampant inflation. Already-tense relations between the two largest economies have deteriorated over China’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “I think I’ll be talking to President Xi within the next 10 days,” Biden said Wednesday, speaking to reporters after a trip to Massachusetts to discuss his climate agenda. “I expect to.”

함의: I think I’ll be, I expect...

The Bank of Japan left its rock-bottom interest rates unchanged Thursday as it put concern over the economy ahead of any potential implications for the yen for now, further cementing its outlier stance compared with inflation-fighting central banks overseas. Supporting its view that the sputtering economy needs continued support even as the impact of the pandemic softens, the BOJ lowered its economic growth forecast for this year. The downgrade follows lockdowns in China and a jump in Covid cases at home since the last quarterly projections. The global outlook has also darkened as inflation abroad fuels recession fears exacerbated by the continued war in Ukraine.

함의: 일본 중앙은행은 경제성장률 전망을 낮추며 지속적인 완화의 일환으로 현재 금리를 유지함.

Despite weaker momentum in China (-2.5%Y) likely reflecting the Covid impact, overall daily exports were supported by a pickup in EU(18.1%Y) and sustained strength in US (19.7%Y). By product, daily exports of petro products (109.7%Y), ships (2.8%Y), and autos (15.0%Y) were relative bright spots.

보고서: 중국 영향에도 불구 유럽과 미국 지역 덕분에 20일 누적 수출은 전년 대비 +14.5% 증가한 것으로 발표 됨. (Morgan Stanely - July First 20 Days Daily Exports Still Healthy)

Crypto Woes Spread as Celsius, Babel Links Hit Another Exchange. Zipmex, a cryptocurrency exchange that operates in Singapore and Thailand, has halted withdrawals as the fallout from a series of defaults spreads further throughout the digital-assets industry. The Asian platform is the latest to succumb to financial difficulties stemming from exposure to troubled crypto lenders Babel Finance and Celsius Network Ltd., according to Zipmex (Thailand) chief executive Akalarp Yimwilai. The exchange is currently in talks with new investors to raise funds for a “bailout,” Akalarp said in a video on the company’s YouTube channel that has since been removed. 

함의: 암호화폐 관련 부실 여파는 진행 중.

ECB to Finally Join Global Rate-Hike Club. The European Central Bank is about to raise interest rates for the first time in 11 years, joining peers around the world in confronting a historic spike in inflation after months of standing on the sidelines. With soaring prices an ever-growing concern for households, companies and governments across the 19-nation euro zone, the ECB may even deviate from guidance by considering a hike of double the planned quarter-point at Thursday’s meeting. News of it discussing such a step prompted ABN Amro to change its prediction to 50 basis points from 25. Money markets put the likelihood of each at 50%.

함의: 유럽 중앙은행은 십여년 넘게 동결했던 금리를 올릴 것으로 예상되며, 시장 예측은 25bp와 50bp 인상에 절반씩 나눠져 있음.

Kuroda says he doesn’t expect global economies to face stagflation or recession at this point, even if there may be risks. Kuroda says BOJ has no plan to raise rates. Kuroda gives confirmation once again, if it was needed, that there are no plans to raise rates or tweak the 0.25% 10-year JGB band.

함의: 갈라파고스.

Prime Minister Mario Draghi told lawmakers that he would meet with the Italian president Thursday morning, when it’s expected he’ll offer his resignation. “Sometimes also central bankers have a heart,” an emotional Draghi told the lower house of parliament. Three of Draghi’s coalition partners withdrew their support Wednesday night after Draghi forced a confidence vote by threatening to quit. And while Draghi didn’t immediately step down after the failed vote, the move effectively ended the unity government he’s been running since February 2021.

함의: 이탈리아 정치 불확실성이 재점화되고 있음.

China’s credit market is now showing stress on an almost daily basis, as a worsening property crisis shatters assumptions about safe borrowers and even Chinese investors turn against troubled debtors. The country’s junk dollar bonds are on the brink of record lows Thursday, as a state-backed developer sought payment delays on $1.6 billion of dollar notes. In other signs of stress, debt of a private builder deemed healthy just months ago has sunk, while creditors spurned a restructuring plan by the parent of BMW AG’s China partner.

함의: 중국 부동산 문제로부터 시작 된 신용위험이 점차 확대되고 있음.

As if the environment weren’t tough enough for one-time stock market high-flyers Tesla Inc., MicroStrategy Inc. and Block Inc., the three companies took an estimated combined hit of $5 billion on their holdings of Bitcoin in the second quarter. The decline in value reflects the 59% plunge in the cryptocurrency’s price in the period ending June 30. Bloomberg calculated the loss based on the companies’ previous disclosures about their Bitcoin stashes. While those are paper losses only for MicroStrategy and Block until they sell, Tesla has locked in some of the drop: The carmaker unloaded the majority of its Bitcoin in the quarter, and an impairment hurt profitability, it said Wednesday.

함의: 지난 2분기 -59% 하락한 비트코인에서 세 회사가 입은 손실은 50억 달러로, 아직 평가손실이지만 테슬라는 일부 손실을 확정하기도 함.