Despite weaker momentum in China (-2.5%Y) likely reflecting the Covid impact, overall daily exports were supported by a pickup in EU(18.1%Y) and sustained strength in US (19.7%Y). By product, daily exports of petro products (109.7%Y), ships (2.8%Y), and autos (15.0%Y) were relative bright spots.

보고서: 중국 영향에도 불구 유럽과 미국 지역 덕분에 20일 누적 수출은 전년 대비 +14.5% 증가한 것으로 발표 됨. (Morgan Stanely - July First 20 Days Daily Exports Still Healthy)

Crypto Woes Spread as Celsius, Babel Links Hit Another Exchange. Zipmex, a cryptocurrency exchange that operates in Singapore and Thailand, has halted withdrawals as the fallout from a series of defaults spreads further throughout the digital-assets industry. The Asian platform is the latest to succumb to financial difficulties stemming from exposure to troubled crypto lenders Babel Finance and Celsius Network Ltd., according to Zipmex (Thailand) chief executive Akalarp Yimwilai. The exchange is currently in talks with new investors to raise funds for a “bailout,” Akalarp said in a video on the company’s YouTube channel that has since been removed. 

함의: 암호화폐 관련 부실 여파는 진행 중.

ECB to Finally Join Global Rate-Hike Club. The European Central Bank is about to raise interest rates for the first time in 11 years, joining peers around the world in confronting a historic spike in inflation after months of standing on the sidelines. With soaring prices an ever-growing concern for households, companies and governments across the 19-nation euro zone, the ECB may even deviate from guidance by considering a hike of double the planned quarter-point at Thursday’s meeting. News of it discussing such a step prompted ABN Amro to change its prediction to 50 basis points from 25. Money markets put the likelihood of each at 50%.

함의: 유럽 중앙은행은 십여년 넘게 동결했던 금리를 올릴 것으로 예상되며, 시장 예측은 25bp와 50bp 인상에 절반씩 나눠져 있음.

Kuroda says he doesn’t expect global economies to face stagflation or recession at this point, even if there may be risks. Kuroda says BOJ has no plan to raise rates. Kuroda gives confirmation once again, if it was needed, that there are no plans to raise rates or tweak the 0.25% 10-year JGB band.

함의: 갈라파고스.

Prime Minister Mario Draghi told lawmakers that he would meet with the Italian president Thursday morning, when it’s expected he’ll offer his resignation. “Sometimes also central bankers have a heart,” an emotional Draghi told the lower house of parliament. Three of Draghi’s coalition partners withdrew their support Wednesday night after Draghi forced a confidence vote by threatening to quit. And while Draghi didn’t immediately step down after the failed vote, the move effectively ended the unity government he’s been running since February 2021.

함의: 이탈리아 정치 불확실성이 재점화되고 있음.

China’s credit market is now showing stress on an almost daily basis, as a worsening property crisis shatters assumptions about safe borrowers and even Chinese investors turn against troubled debtors. The country’s junk dollar bonds are on the brink of record lows Thursday, as a state-backed developer sought payment delays on $1.6 billion of dollar notes. In other signs of stress, debt of a private builder deemed healthy just months ago has sunk, while creditors spurned a restructuring plan by the parent of BMW AG’s China partner.

함의: 중국 부동산 문제로부터 시작 된 신용위험이 점차 확대되고 있음.

As if the environment weren’t tough enough for one-time stock market high-flyers Tesla Inc., MicroStrategy Inc. and Block Inc., the three companies took an estimated combined hit of $5 billion on their holdings of Bitcoin in the second quarter. The decline in value reflects the 59% plunge in the cryptocurrency’s price in the period ending June 30. Bloomberg calculated the loss based on the companies’ previous disclosures about their Bitcoin stashes. While those are paper losses only for MicroStrategy and Block until they sell, Tesla has locked in some of the drop: The carmaker unloaded the majority of its Bitcoin in the quarter, and an impairment hurt profitability, it said Wednesday.

함의: 지난 2분기 -59% 하락한 비트코인에서 세 회사가 입은 손실은 50억 달러로, 아직 평가손실이지만 테슬라는 일부 손실을 확정하기도 함.

Tesla, the world’s most valuable automaker and the only profitable US EV firm, is outperforming peers this year as investors move away from unprofitable growth companies. Tesla rose in premarket trading after it reported second-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street estimates. Meanwhile, Nikola Corp. and Lucid Group Inc. have plunged about 40% this year and Rivian’s stock has lost more than two-thirds of its value.

함의: 투자자들이 꿈만 있고 이익은 없는 성장주에서 멀어지면서 테슬라를 제외 한 전기차 업체의 주가는 올 한 해 -40%에서 최대 2/3 손실을 입음.

Sinking Estimates Are Music to Ears of S&P Bulls. “A reset of earnings expectations could be taken as a positive as investors stop seeing estimates/guidance as being behind the curve,” JPMorgan strategists including Marko Kolanovic wrote in a note this week. Stocks have tended to “trough ahead of the earnings trough, and weaker guidance could open the doors for the Fed to pivot and tempt investors to step in the market, looking for the inflection point.”

함의: 주가의 저점이 이익 예상치의 저점보다 먼저 나오는 경향이 있으므로 중앙은행의 태도만 뒷받침 될 경우 긍정적이라 함.

The ECB delivered a surprise 50 bp hike, its first in 11 years and ending the era of negative rates. It unveiled a much-debated tool to contain debt-market jitters, called the Transmission Protection Instrument. More details will come later. Traders are now betting on 60 bps of increases in September. The euro rose and yields gained. Christine Lagarde speaks at 8:45 a.m. ET.

함의: 유럽 중앙은행은 11년만의 마이너스 금리 시대를 끝내며 50bp를 인상했으며, 투자자들의 포지션은 9월 50bp 이상을 인상할 것으로 나타나고 있음.

It's a big day for the euro as the ECB raises rates for the first time in more than a decade. Along with many of its G-10 peers, the currency has staged a strong rebound, leading some to ask whether the dollar has peaked. It's not the first time that discussion has made the rounds this year as the pullbacks in May and June after fresh cycle highs sparked similar comments. As things stand, there isn't really much evidence the dollar is past its apogee and the only way forward leads downhill.

함의: 유럽 중앙은행의 금리인상으로 달러 대비 주요 통화가 강세를 보이며, 달러가 정점을 지났는가에 대한 의견이 있으나 그런 판단을 할 증거는 불충분함.

Factor Quants Ride Out the Stock Crash in Biggest Win Since 2013. After cratering in the bull market era, a once-hot systematic trade is mounting its biggest comeback in nearly a decade. Factor investors -- who dissect shares based on quantifiable characteristics like the degree to which a company appears cheap or profitable -- are shorting some of the biggest losers in this year’s crushing selloff, while broad market conditions are proving more conducive to this breed of active trader. The systematic style has posted its best performance for two consecutive quarters since 2013 in a Bloomberg GSAM index that replicates a strategy with both long and short positions. Popular trades betting on value, quality, size, momentum and low volatility have all made money this year through end-June for the first time since 2006, per market-neutral indexes tracked by S&P Dow Jones Indices. Factor investing has a long way to go to win back fans after underperforming in recent years and notching billions of dollars in outflows. But something in 2022 is working. 

함의: 떠나버린 투자자들을 돌리기엔 역부족이지만, 멀티 팩터 시스템 투자가 2개 분기 연속 훌륭한 성과를 내며 귀환함.

First the Fed guided the market very specifically to a 50-bp hike and then delivered 75. Now, the ECB, after guiding to 25 bps, has delivered 50. And in both cases, they only avoided surprising the market via leaks to the press. This is not how forward guidance is supposed to work. Forward guidance is effectively over. The result will be more front-running of rate policy and a loss of control of longer-term yields. Even before the first rate hike it was clear that once you lift off zero, the forward guidance game was over. Like the Fed, the ECB will have to demonstrate through actual hikes, not forward guidance, that it is determined to deal with inflation.

함의: 포워드 가이던스가 더는 작동하지 않고 무용하다 봐야 하며, 때문에 시중금리 레벨 및 정책금리 시기의 통제력을 상실했고, 이제 중앙은행은 말이 아닌 실행으로 인플레이션을 억제해야 하는 상황임.

AT&T Inc. fell the most in 20 years after saying some customers are starting to put off paying their phone bills, which contributed to the wireless carrier cutting its forecast for free cash flow this year by $2 billion. The emerging economic strain on consumers is adding to pressure the company had already been facing from deep discounts on new phones and higher spending on network equipment. AT&T shares fell as much as 11%, their biggest slide since 2002. The rout erased the stock’s gain for the year and sent phone company peers Verizon Communications Inc. and T-Mobile US Inc. lower.

함의: 가계 재정 상태가 심각하게 위축되며 통신비조차 지불불능, 동사는 20년래 일간 최대 낙폭을 기록함.