Bottom-line: hawkish pause.
The big surprise is that the median FOMC participant wants two more rate hikes this year.
The big surprise is that the median FOMC participant wants two more rate hikes this year.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행의 경제성장률 예측 변화보다 실업률 예측 변화가 중요한데, 내년도 실업률 예측치 변화(+0.4%p) 규모는 항상 경기침체를 동반하는 수준이기 때문임.
By forecasting a 0.4 ppt rise in the unemployment rate next year, (from 4.1% to 4.5%), the Fed implicitly suggests a significantly high risk of a recession, even though its GDP forecast doesn’t explicitly suggest as much. Since 1970, a rise in joblessness of this magnitude has always been accompanied by a recession.
By forecasting a 0.4 ppt rise in the unemployment rate next year, (from 4.1% to 4.5%), the Fed implicitly suggests a significantly high risk of a recession, even though its GDP forecast doesn’t explicitly suggest as much. Since 1970, a rise in joblessness of this magnitude has always been accompanied by a recession.
Powell: 인플레이션 통제가 최우선 목표임을 강조함.
Powell emphasizes that the inflation fight is still job 1.
Powell emphasizes that the inflation fight is still job 1.
Powell: 대다수 위원들이 올해 더 많은 통화 긴축을 지지했다고 함.
Powell says nearly all the FOMC members expect further tightening this year.
Powell says nearly all the FOMC members expect further tightening this year.
Powell: 2% 수준의 인플레이션까지 가는 길은 아직 멀리 있음.
Powell says the process of getting inflation back to the 2% target “has a long way to go.”
Powell says the process of getting inflation back to the 2% target “has a long way to go.”
Powell: 올해 실업률 전망과 달리 내년도 실업률 전망은 높아진 것을 집으며, 노동시장 약화가 중앙은행의 금리인상에 의해 발생할 것으로 봄.
Powell points out the FOMC is projecting the unemployment rate to rise to 4.5% in 2024. So while unemployment rate forecasts were cut for this year, the FOMC still sees the labor market weakening in response to Fed hikes -- just a lot of this happening next year.
Powell points out the FOMC is projecting the unemployment rate to rise to 4.5% in 2024. So while unemployment rate forecasts were cut for this year, the FOMC still sees the labor market weakening in response to Fed hikes -- just a lot of this happening next year.
Powell: 15개월 전으로 돌아가보면, 금리를 얼마나 빨리 올려야 하냐의 문제에 있었음. 이번 회의의 동결 경우 마찬가지인데, 적정한 수준의 금리인상의 속도 조절 과정에 있는 것이며, 7월 통화정책회의 또한 데이터에 의존하게 될 것(I Do Expect That July Meeting Will Be ‘Live’ Meeting.)임.
* 그렇다면, 7월 통화정책회의가 25bp 인상을 단언하고 있지 않다는 의미임.
Keep in mind, if the July meeting is a “live” decision, that suggests a quarter-point hike isn’t baked in, then.
* 그렇다면, 7월 통화정책회의가 25bp 인상을 단언하고 있지 않다는 의미임.
Keep in mind, if the July meeting is a “live” decision, that suggests a quarter-point hike isn’t baked in, then.
Market Reaction: Stocks are getting closer to breakeven on the day. S&P 500 is down less than 0.1% now.
Powell: 점 도표에서 보여진 강경한 태도와 달리, 파월은 몇 가지 사항에 대해 정해진 바가 없다고 함으로써 주식시장에 탄력을 불어넣음.
The Powell rally is starting. The S&P has recovered most of the lost ground. Powell seems to downplay the dot plot by saying no decision has been made for the next few meetings.
The Powell rally is starting. The S&P has recovered most of the lost ground. Powell seems to downplay the dot plot by saying no decision has been made for the next few meetings.
Powell: 7월 통화정책회의 전에 우리가 볼 수 있는 경제지표가 얼마 없다는 점을 질문 받았는데, 이에 파월은 우리가 이미 본 지표들을 종합해 결론에 도달할 것이라 밝힘.
Powell is asked about the July meeting, as there isn’t a ton of economic data to come out before then. So what will the committee be using to inform their judgement? Powell says you’re adding the data to the other data the Fed has already seen -- i.e. you can draw conclusions from multi-month data.
Powell is asked about the July meeting, as there isn’t a ton of economic data to come out before then. So what will the committee be using to inform their judgement? Powell says you’re adding the data to the other data the Fed has already seen -- i.e. you can draw conclusions from multi-month data.
Powell: 충분히 제한적인 수준의 정책금리는 어디냐는 질문에, 과거와 달리 현재는 너무 낮지도 너무 높지도 않은 균형적인 수준의 정책금리에 근접한 것 같다고 함. 다만, 물가에 대한 위험은 여전하다고 밝힘.
Asked what is “sufficiently restrictive” for the Fed’s key rate, Powell says “we’ve moved much closer to that destination” with the actions taken so far. The risks of overdoing it and underdoing it are now “closer” to being in balance. But risks to inflation are still to the upside, he says.
Asked what is “sufficiently restrictive” for the Fed’s key rate, Powell says “we’ve moved much closer to that destination” with the actions taken so far. The risks of overdoing it and underdoing it are now “closer” to being in balance. But risks to inflation are still to the upside, he says.
이번 통화정책회의에서 금리인상을 잠시 중지한 것은 지난 여름 기간에 긴축의 대부분이 시행(much of the tightening took place last summer)되었기 때문에 그 영향을 지켜보겠다는 뜻( think that some of that may come into effect” going forward)임.
근데, 그 시차가 어떻게 되는지에 대해서는 'Don't know'.
근데, 그 시차가 어떻게 되는지에 대해서는 'Don't know'.
Powell: 일부 경제지표는 방향성을 가지고 있다는 점을 감안할 때, 중앙은행이 원하는 곳으로 가고 있음에도 추가 금리인상을 지지하는 이유에 대한 질문을 받음. 그는 인플레이션의 초기는 유동성이 풍부한 상태에서 상품 수요가 견인한 것이지만, 작금의 노동시장이나 임금과는 큰 관련이 없다는 점을 강조함. 이는 시장 분석가들도 이제는 인플레이션을 낮추기 위해 노동시장 과열이 해소되어야 한다는 것과 궤를 같이 함.
Up next, a question on given that some data trends are in place, why signal additional rate hikes, if things are going in the direction Fed would like to see? Powell says inflation at the beginning of this cycle it was about strong demand for goods at a time when people were sitting at home and had plenty of money in the bank. It wasn’t really related to the labor market or wages, he says. As things go on, though, “many” analysts see the need for the labor market to ease up in order to bring down inflation.
Up next, a question on given that some data trends are in place, why signal additional rate hikes, if things are going in the direction Fed would like to see? Powell says inflation at the beginning of this cycle it was about strong demand for goods at a time when people were sitting at home and had plenty of money in the bank. It wasn’t really related to the labor market or wages, he says. As things go on, though, “many” analysts see the need for the labor market to ease up in order to bring down inflation.
Bottom-line: 이번 유럽 중앙은행의 통화정책회의는 25bp 금리인상으로 결정됐으며, 7월에도 한 차례를 금리인상을 할 것으로 보임. 금리인상 중단에 대해서는 생각치 않으며, 인플레이션은 너무 오래도록 너무 높게 유지 될 위협을 보고 있음.
Lagarde says July rate hike ‘very likely’ after ECB raises forecasts. Says ECB hasn’t started thinking about pausing hikes. ECB says inflation still ‘projected to remain too high for too long’. ECB also confirms end of APP reinvestments in July.
Lagarde says July rate hike ‘very likely’ after ECB raises forecasts. Says ECB hasn’t started thinking about pausing hikes. ECB says inflation still ‘projected to remain too high for too long’. ECB also confirms end of APP reinvestments in July.