Bottom-line: Kremlin Chaos.
Vladimir Putin faced the biggest challenge to his two-decade rule with a short-lived mutiny. Wagner mercenary group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin halted his fighters' advance toward Moscow as part of a deal brokered by Belarus President Lukashenko to end the revolt without facing prosecution. Neither Putin nor Prigozhin has reappeared more than 24 hours after the standoff ended.
Vladimir Putin faced the biggest challenge to his two-decade rule with a short-lived mutiny. Wagner mercenary group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin halted his fighters' advance toward Moscow as part of a deal brokered by Belarus President Lukashenko to end the revolt without facing prosecution. Neither Putin nor Prigozhin has reappeared more than 24 hours after the standoff ended.
Micron Technology Inc. (MU) shares rose in the extended session Wednesday after the memory-chip maker's chief executive called the bottom on the sector, and revenue came in slightly higher than expected.
Docent: 로마의 아치를 건축한다면 인력의 투입과 산출에 한계가 있을 것이지만, 자본시장에서 일한다면 한명의 인력이 창출할 수 있는 부가가치의 한계를 가늠할 수 없을 것임. 골드만삭스에서 발간한 보고서는 이처럼 인적자본이 집중 된 산업에 초점을 맞추고 있음. 산업 내 선두에 있는 기업들은 대부분 인적 자본 관리에서 핵심적인 차별점을 만들고 있으며, 연구에 따르면 인적 자본은 기업이 더 큰 이익을 내고, 가치평가에서 동등한 기업보다 할증을 받으며, 주가 수익률 또한 더 우월한데 영향을 미친다고 함. 향후에도 노동시장은 구인이 어려운 상태를 유지할 것이고, 인공지능의 발달은 일자리를 줄이는 것보다 생산성을 높이는 역할을 더 할 것으로 보임. 골드만삭스는 이와 같은 평가 척도 하에서 소프트웨어 기업 중 훌륭하다 평가되는 기업들 목록을 제시함.
We believe human capital is a central differentiator of leading companies, and find it increasingly topical in our investor conversations. In our view, ESG analysis can offer unique insight into human capital practices and potential exposures, including retention, development, inclusion and mobility. We apply our framework to help identify leaders, with a focus on knowledge worker industries, highlighting links to margins, growth and stock performance. Human capital increasingly in focus. Our interview with GS economist Joseph Briggs points to a labor market expected to remain tight, with remote work a permanent feature, a need for below-trend growth to tame labor inflation, and emerging AI technologies that are more likely to enhance productivity than drive job losses. Software industry case study points to positive links to margins, growth and stock performance. A growing body of research links effective management of human capital with superior operating and stock performance. Our own case study of the Software industry shows that human capital leaders tend to see higher margins, greater margin expansion, premium multiples, and stock outperformance. Our interview with US Software lead analyst Kash Rangan underscores a shortage of supply for top Tech talent, the importance of in-person connectivity, and how successful companies are enabling constant learning. Buy-rated companies in the Software industry that both disclose and rank well on our human capital measurables include Adobe, HubSpot, SAP, ServiceNow, Workday and Xero.
We believe human capital is a central differentiator of leading companies, and find it increasingly topical in our investor conversations. In our view, ESG analysis can offer unique insight into human capital practices and potential exposures, including retention, development, inclusion and mobility. We apply our framework to help identify leaders, with a focus on knowledge worker industries, highlighting links to margins, growth and stock performance. Human capital increasingly in focus. Our interview with GS economist Joseph Briggs points to a labor market expected to remain tight, with remote work a permanent feature, a need for below-trend growth to tame labor inflation, and emerging AI technologies that are more likely to enhance productivity than drive job losses. Software industry case study points to positive links to margins, growth and stock performance. A growing body of research links effective management of human capital with superior operating and stock performance. Our own case study of the Software industry shows that human capital leaders tend to see higher margins, greater margin expansion, premium multiples, and stock outperformance. Our interview with US Software lead analyst Kash Rangan underscores a shortage of supply for top Tech talent, the importance of in-person connectivity, and how successful companies are enabling constant learning. Buy-rated companies in the Software industry that both disclose and rank well on our human capital measurables include Adobe, HubSpot, SAP, ServiceNow, Workday and Xero.
Bottom-line: 지난 통화정책회의 의사록 공개에 다음과 같은 점을 핵심으로 볼 수 있음. 금리인상을 일시 중지 한 결정 자체는 만장일치였으나 내부적으로 근거에 대한 주장이 달랐음. 대부분의 인사들은 인플레이션을 제한할 수 있는 영역에 기준금리를 위치 시키길 원하며, 이는 추가 금리인상을 뒷받침 함. 중앙은행 내 경제학자들은 제롬 파월 의장이 주장한 다소 느리지만 성장하는 경제와 달리 연말에 약하지만 침체를 겪을 것으로 전망함.
Here are key takeaways from minutes of the Federal Reserve's June 13-14 meeting, released Wednesday. While the decision to pause interest-rate hikes was unanimous among voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee, the minutes reveal divisions. Fed officials stress the need to maintain a “restrictive stance” of monetary policy; almost all officials flag their projections showing additional rate hikes will likely be warranted. Fed staff economists continued to forecast a “mild recession” starting later this year, at odds with Chair Jerome Powell's expectation for slow growth.
Here are key takeaways from minutes of the Federal Reserve's June 13-14 meeting, released Wednesday. While the decision to pause interest-rate hikes was unanimous among voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee, the minutes reveal divisions. Fed officials stress the need to maintain a “restrictive stance” of monetary policy; almost all officials flag their projections showing additional rate hikes will likely be warranted. Fed staff economists continued to forecast a “mild recession” starting later this year, at odds with Chair Jerome Powell's expectation for slow growth.
US companies added almost half a million jobs in June, the most in over a year and underscoring the ongoing strength of the labor market.
Bottom-line: 예상보다 적은 고용을 창출했지만 실업률 하락은 여전함. 시간당 임금이 예상보다 증가한 것은 중앙은행이 원치 않았던 그림임. 평균 근로시간 또한 소폭 증가했는데, 일반적으로 해고가 늘어나기 시작할 때 징조로 근로시간이 줄어든다는 점을 감안하면, 대량의 해고와 같은 우려는 아직 불필요하다 할 수 있음. 전기차 및 배터리 공장에 대한 활황을 보여줄 수 있는 제조업 부문의 고용 증가도 흥미로운 지점임.
Fewer jobs added than projected but unemployment falls. Bigger than expected bump in hourly earnings, not what the Fed wanted to see. The average workweek lengthened just a bit, to 34.4 hours. That’s reduces concern that there’s a major inflection point there — with employers slashing hours as a prelude to layoffs. That scenario is a little less likely now, based on this report. Interestingly, there was a pickup in manufacturing employment, maybe reflecting all the spending on EVs and battery plants.
Fewer jobs added than projected but unemployment falls. Bigger than expected bump in hourly earnings, not what the Fed wanted to see. The average workweek lengthened just a bit, to 34.4 hours. That’s reduces concern that there’s a major inflection point there — with employers slashing hours as a prelude to layoffs. That scenario is a little less likely now, based on this report. Interestingly, there was a pickup in manufacturing employment, maybe reflecting all the spending on EVs and battery plants.
Bottom-line: 25세에서 54세 사이의 연령대에서 경제활동 참가율이 증가했는데, 2000년 초 이후 가장 높은 수준인 동시에 근로자를 구하기 어려운 노동시장을 보여주는 지표라 할 수 있음. 반면, 흑인이나 히스패닉의 실업률은 다시 증가했음. 흑인의 실업률은 6%로 백인의 실업률 3.1% 대비 다시 두 배에 달하게 됐음.
The prime-age participation rate, that’s for workers aged 25 to 54, nudged up a bit again. It’s at the highest level since the early 2000s as this tight labor market continues to bring people into jobs. Looks like we got a pretty sharp increase in unemployment for minority workers: the Black unemployment rate jumped to 6% and the Hispanic rate to 4.3%. Black unemployment is again about double that of White workers, which fell to 3.1%.
The prime-age participation rate, that’s for workers aged 25 to 54, nudged up a bit again. It’s at the highest level since the early 2000s as this tight labor market continues to bring people into jobs. Looks like we got a pretty sharp increase in unemployment for minority workers: the Black unemployment rate jumped to 6% and the Hispanic rate to 4.3%. Black unemployment is again about double that of White workers, which fell to 3.1%.
Market Reaction: 작금의 거시경제 환경에서 가장 중요한 지표 발표라는 점을 감안할 때, 지금과 같이 놀라울 정도의 무반응(너무나 조용한 선물시장 호가)은 전례가 없었다고 할 수 있음.
Stock futures remarkably calm, with contracts on the S&P 500 Index barely changed on the day. This might be the most non-reaction we’ve seen in quite some time. After all, this is effectively the most important single economic indicator on the planet.
Stock futures remarkably calm, with contracts on the S&P 500 Index barely changed on the day. This might be the most non-reaction we’ve seen in quite some time. After all, this is effectively the most important single economic indicator on the planet.
Bottom-line: 올해 아시아 주식시장에서 탁월한 성과를 기록한 코스피 지수에 대한 내년 성장률 전망이 순풍으로 작용할 것으로 보임. 블룸버그가 증권사들 추정치를 평균한 결과 코스피 상장기업들의 순이익 총합이 올해 대비 36% 증가하며, 어려운 시기를 보낸 반도체 업종을 중심으로 자동차 제조, 엔터테인먼트 업종이 이익 성장을 견인할 것으로 전망 됨. 투자자들은 이미 올해를 뒤로하고 내년 성장으로 관심을 옮겼기 때문에 추가적인 지수 상승을 기대해 볼 수 있어보임.
South Korea’s equity benchmark, among the best-performing gauges in Asia this year, may see more gains, driven by a strong corporate earnings outlook. Some brokerages estimate Kospi Index members will post record-high net income in 2024. Bloomberg forecasts the gauge’s 12-month forward earnings-per-share to jump 36% next year, off the back of less than 1% growth. Chip stocks are expected to be the biggest drivers after a lackluster 2023, while carmakers, entertainment firms and banks will also likely see earnings growth. That optimism will be a tailwind for the Kospi, which has advanced about 14% so far this year. While there are calls for caution in some sectors, investors are already looking past 2023 and focusing on the 2024 financial outlooks.
South Korea’s equity benchmark, among the best-performing gauges in Asia this year, may see more gains, driven by a strong corporate earnings outlook. Some brokerages estimate Kospi Index members will post record-high net income in 2024. Bloomberg forecasts the gauge’s 12-month forward earnings-per-share to jump 36% next year, off the back of less than 1% growth. Chip stocks are expected to be the biggest drivers after a lackluster 2023, while carmakers, entertainment firms and banks will also likely see earnings growth. That optimism will be a tailwind for the Kospi, which has advanced about 14% so far this year. While there are calls for caution in some sectors, investors are already looking past 2023 and focusing on the 2024 financial outlooks.