Bottom-line: 25세에서 54세 사이의 연령대에서 경제활동 참가율이 증가했는데, 2000년 초 이후 가장 높은 수준인 동시에 근로자를 구하기 어려운 노동시장을 보여주는 지표라 할 수 있음. 반면, 흑인이나 히스패닉의 실업률은 다시 증가했음. 흑인의 실업률은 6%로 백인의 실업률 3.1% 대비 다시 두 배에 달하게 됐음.

The prime-age participation rate, that’s for workers aged 25 to 54, nudged up a bit again. It’s at the highest level since the early 2000s as this tight labor market continues to bring people into jobs. Looks like we got a pretty sharp increase in unemployment for minority workers: the Black unemployment rate jumped to 6% and the Hispanic rate to 4.3%. Black unemployment is again about double that of White workers, which fell to 3.1%.

Market Reaction: 작금의 거시경제 환경에서 가장 중요한 지표 발표라는 점을 감안할 때, 지금과 같이 놀라울 정도의 무반응(너무나 조용한 선물시장 호가)은 전례가 없었다고 할 수 있음.

Stock futures remarkably calm, with contracts on the S&P 500 Index barely changed on the day. This might be the most non-reaction we’ve seen in quite some time. After all, this is effectively the most important single economic indicator on the planet.

Bottom-line: 올해 아시아 주식시장에서 탁월한 성과를 기록한 코스피 지수에 대한 내년 성장률 전망이 순풍으로 작용할 것으로 보임. 블룸버그가 증권사들 추정치를 평균한 결과 코스피 상장기업들의 순이익 총합이 올해 대비 36% 증가하며, 어려운 시기를 보낸 반도체 업종을 중심으로 자동차 제조, 엔터테인먼트 업종이 이익 성장을 견인할 것으로 전망 됨. 투자자들은 이미 올해를 뒤로하고 내년 성장으로 관심을 옮겼기 때문에 추가적인 지수 상승을 기대해 볼 수 있어보임.

South Korea’s equity benchmark, among the best-performing gauges in Asia this year, may see more gains, driven by a strong corporate earnings outlook. Some brokerages estimate Kospi Index members will post record-high net income in 2024. Bloomberg forecasts the gauge’s 12-month forward earnings-per-share to jump 36% next year, off the back of less than 1% growth. Chip stocks are expected to be the biggest drivers after a lackluster 2023, while carmakers, entertainment firms and banks will also likely see earnings growth. That optimism will be a tailwind for the Kospi, which has advanced about 14% so far this year. While there are calls for caution in some sectors, investors are already looking past 2023 and focusing on the 2024 financial outlooks.

Good news! A softer gain than expected, on both headline and core, coming in each at 0.2% on the month.

Whoa! Look at those two-year yields, down more than 9 basis points, from being down just about 3 before the release.

Here’s the graph. The S&P is now soaring even higher roughly two minutes after the CPI release.

In general, there’s no reason to think this changes the outlook for a July rate hike, which has been well signaled. It does have influence in how the Fed will think about September.

The Fed will take some comfort in the fact that core service CPI ex-housing housing has slowed below 4%.

Bottom-line: 5% 미만에 머무르게 된 핵심 물가지표를 활용해 중앙은행의 정책금리를 실질금리로 환산 할 경우, 바이러스 대확산 이후 처음으로 양의 영역에 들어섬.

Using core CPI, which dropped below 5%, the real fed fund rate has now turned positive for the first time in this cycle.

Bottom-line: Welcome Relief.

US inflation slid to the lowest in more than two years in June, signaling a potential turning point for the Fed. Headline CPI eased to 3% year on year — one-third of where it was a year ago — from 4%, while core prices decelerated to 4.8% from 5.3%. Both measures climbed 0.2% from May, below forecasts.

Bank of Korea Leaves Key Interest Rate Unchanged at 3.50%.

Another sign of slowing US inflation.

Bottom-line: 달러 대비 여타 통화의 강세는 높은 물가에 대한 우려가 완화되고, 중앙은행의 최종 정책금리 예상 수준이 낮아짐에 따른 자연스러운 현상임. 다만, 달러 약세는 외환 시장 밖에도 영향을 주는데, i) 달러 약세로 인해 달러 표시 원자재의 상승에 환 효과로 기여하고, ii) 달러로 환산 한 수입품목가를 낮춰주는 효과 덕분에 미국 외 국가에서 수입수요를 키우고 경제 성장에 도움을 주며, iii) 현금성 투자상품에 몰려있는 미국 내 달러 자산이 미국 외 국가의 주식에 투자 할 유인을 제공함. 그러므로 대다수 투자자들은 지금의 달러 약세 추세가 이어지길 응원해야 할 것임.

Weakness in the dollar continues to reverberate across markets, with everything from the pound through the yen tearing higher this week. And while it’s all just a natural consequence of easing inflation and a lower terminal rate in the US, it has very important implications for markets outside FX. First, dollar-priced commodities have rallied, with oil and gold benefitting from the pure currency effect of the change in the unit of measurement. Second, it lowers the cost of imports of dollar-based goods everywhere outside the US, stimulating demand and boosting growth. That growth comes with the added benefit of built-in lower inflation. And third, it encourages investors to pull money out of US money-market funds and put it to better use in international stocks. So, overall, the dollar really feels like the flipside of the everything rally, and just about everyone should cheer this bout of weakness.

Bottom-line: Soft landing glide path?

The US has a better chance of avoiding a recession in the next 12 months — 80% rather than 75% — after recent positive data on activity and inflation, Goldman's Jan Hatzius said. JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic also sees improved odds of dodging a downturn.