US job growth moderated in October by more than expected and the unemployment rate rose to an almost two-year high, marking
this summer.
a step down from the heated hiring pace
this summer.
Bottom-line: 고용에 대한 경제 지표가 발표 된 뒤, 미국 30년 만기 국채 수익률의 3일 변동이 2020년 바이러스 대확산 이후 가장 큰 폭으로 하락함. 또한 이 지표 발표 전 내년 7월 첫 금리인하를 책정했던 금리선물시장은 현재, 내년 6월에 중앙은행이 첫 금리인하를 시행할 것으로 앞당겨 반영하고 있음.
Treasuries rallied, with 30-year yields heading for their biggest three-day decline since the onset of the pandemic in 2020, as signs of softening US labor data fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve is done hiking interest rates. Interest-rate derivatives show traders see only a 25% chance of another Fed rate hike by January, and
Treasuries rallied, with 30-year yields heading for their biggest three-day decline since the onset of the pandemic in 2020, as signs of softening US labor data fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve is done hiking interest rates. Interest-rate derivatives show traders see only a 25% chance of another Fed rate hike by January, and
have fully priced in a cut by June. Before the job report, traders had expected the first interest-rate cut in July.
South Korea will prohibit stock short-selling from Monday until June 2024 to allow regulators to “actively” improve rules and systems, the Financial Services Commission said Sunday.
자유경제의 자본시장에서 이뤄지는 다양한 정책들을 볼 때, 과거에 나는 무지의 극단을 달리는 사람들이 사회 지도 계층에 있다는 생각에 개탄을 금치 못했었다.
그러나 사법고시, 행정고시를 돌파하고 과거 어려운 시절에 그 모든 수를 동원해 그곳에 올라간 이들이 대중들보다 무지몽매할 것이라 생각치 않는다.
수요가 없는 공급은 없다는 말처럼, 결국 자본시장에 펼쳐지는 다양한 정책들은 그들의 자리를 지키는데 필요한 대중들을 향한다.
그러므로, 이제는 과거와 생각을 달리한다. 사회 지도 계층이 무지몽매한 것이 아니라, 대중들이 아직도 이런 정책들에 투표권을 기울인 다는 것이다.
또한, 이런 것을 스스로 계몽하고 열렬히 전사할 이유도 하등 없다.
그저 그 진실을 알고, 때로는 대중의 환호 속에 동참하여 이득을 취하고, 그 후 안개가 걷힐 때 즈음엔 진실의 길 속에서 이득을 취하면 되기 떄문이다.
그러나 사법고시, 행정고시를 돌파하고 과거 어려운 시절에 그 모든 수를 동원해 그곳에 올라간 이들이 대중들보다 무지몽매할 것이라 생각치 않는다.
수요가 없는 공급은 없다는 말처럼, 결국 자본시장에 펼쳐지는 다양한 정책들은 그들의 자리를 지키는데 필요한 대중들을 향한다.
그러므로, 이제는 과거와 생각을 달리한다. 사회 지도 계층이 무지몽매한 것이 아니라, 대중들이 아직도 이런 정책들에 투표권을 기울인 다는 것이다.
또한, 이런 것을 스스로 계몽하고 열렬히 전사할 이유도 하등 없다.
그저 그 진실을 알고, 때로는 대중의 환호 속에 동참하여 이득을 취하고, 그 후 안개가 걷힐 때 즈음엔 진실의 길 속에서 이득을 취하면 되기 떄문이다.
Bottom-line: 금융위기나 외부충격 없이 이뤄진 공매도 제한으로 인해 한국은 MSCI 선진시장 편입으로부터 멀어졌으며, 외국인 투자자들의 자금도 떠나게 될 것으로 보임.
South Korea’s move to ban stock short-selling even without a financial crisis or external shock will
South Korea’s move to ban stock short-selling even without a financial crisis or external shock will
undermine its bid to seek developed market status from MSCI Inc., and make investors pare positions, according to money managers and strategists.
Stocks Gain for Seventh Straight Day.
A rally in big tech set stocks on their longest winning run in two years, traders dismissing hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials.
A rally in big tech set stocks on their longest winning run in two years, traders dismissing hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials.
The bond market is
since the Federal Reserve and other central banks embarked on a tightening cycle.
betting on a “dovish pivot” for the seventh time
since the Federal Reserve and other central banks embarked on a tightening cycle.
• Bottom-line: 이번 주 금요일은 채권 투자자들이 중앙은행이 금리를 인하하게 될 것이라고 예상을 바꾼지 1년이 되는 날임. 그러나 지난 12개월 간 중앙은행은 150bp의 금리인상을 단행했고, 10년만기 국채 수익률도 40bp 상승하며 그들의 베팅에 상당한 고통을 줌. 종국에 채권 거래자들이 맞을 수 있지만, 이 고통을 감내해야 하는 시간은 예상보다 길어질 수 있음.
The pain trade for bond investors will likely to continue as they hold on to bets on a Fed pivot despite lofty yields. Rates traders are about to mark a perhaps uncomfortable anniversary. Friday will be a year to the day since they switched to pricing in a Federal Reserve pivot to rate cuts within a year. The one-year forward US cash rate dropped to more than 25 basis points below the six-month forward on Nov. 10, 2022 and it has remained at or below that level pretty much ever since. The uncomfortable part is that 10-year Treasury yield have climbed about 40 basis points during the past 12 months, as the Fed hiked rates 150 basis points. The bond market apparently decided that a pivot to rate cuts was inevitable as soon as it became apparent that the Fed would slow the pace of its hikes after delivering a fourth-straight 75 basis point increase last November.
, but the pain trade for bonds remains a stickier tightening cycle than they anticipate.
The pain trade for bond investors will likely to continue as they hold on to bets on a Fed pivot despite lofty yields. Rates traders are about to mark a perhaps uncomfortable anniversary. Friday will be a year to the day since they switched to pricing in a Federal Reserve pivot to rate cuts within a year. The one-year forward US cash rate dropped to more than 25 basis points below the six-month forward on Nov. 10, 2022 and it has remained at or below that level pretty much ever since. The uncomfortable part is that 10-year Treasury yield have climbed about 40 basis points during the past 12 months, as the Fed hiked rates 150 basis points. The bond market apparently decided that a pivot to rate cuts was inevitable as soon as it became apparent that the Fed would slow the pace of its hikes after delivering a fourth-straight 75 basis point increase last November.
At some stage traders are likely to end up being right
, but the pain trade for bonds remains a stickier tightening cycle than they anticipate.
The S&P 500 has inched higher this week and if the index closes up for another day, it would mark the longest winning run since 2004.
Recurring applications for US unemployment benefits rose for a seventh straight week, adding to
evidence that the labor market is cooling.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the US central bank won’t hesitate to tighten policy further if appropriate and reiterated that the central bank isn’t fully confident that it has tightened enough to return inflation to 2%.
Stock futures rose and bond yields fell, with
traders looking past the Federal Reserve’s effortsto downplay the market’s dovish bid ahead of a key reading on consumer sentiment.