Our US inflation-risk model predicts inflation topped out at 9.1% year over year in June and will fall back to 7% by the first quarter of 2023. A gradual slowdown toward 5% may follow later next year.

함의: 인플레이션은 내년 말이 되서야 5%에 닿을 것임.

Some global money managers betting on China stocks are taking July’s selloff in their stride, keeping the faith that Beijing will pull out all the stops to boost the economy. Fidelity International Ltd., abrdn plc and GAM Investment Management are among those expecting China to outperform global equities in the second half as recession fears grip major markets. For heavyweight tech firms traded in Hong Kong, Federated Hermes Inc. and Brandes Investment Partners LP say the worst of the crackdown is priced in. China and Hong Kong shares have seen their world-beating rebound fizzle out in July as rising virus cases, mortgage boycotts and fresh regulatory action on internet giants triggered knee-jerk selling. But to bulls, a gradual reopening from lockdowns, wrapping up of the regulatory probe into Didi Global Inc. and hopes of market-friendly measures leading up to the all-important National Party Congress are reasons to be optimistic.

함의: 7월 매도에 의한 낙폭에도 불구 경제활동 정상화, 기술 기업 규제의 마무리 국면, 전당대회에 대한 기대 등을 이유로 일부 투자자들은 여전히 중국이 하반기 가장 우월한 성과를 낼 지역으로 보고 있음.

British satellite firm OneWeb is nearing a deal to combine with France’s Eutelsat Communications SA in a transaction that would create a pan-European operator that could better compete with Elon Musk’s Starlink project, according to people familiar with the matter. OneWeb and Eutelsat could reach an agreement as soon as next week, the people said, asking not to be identified because the discussions are private. OneWeb, in which the UK government has a minority stake, would be valued at about $3 billion or more, the people said. Musk’s Starlink fleet of more than 1,500 satellites launched in the past three years by SpaceX has created an unprecedented challenge for rivals, leading to a wave of consolidation in the sector.

함의: Space X가 쏘아올린 1,500여개의 위성은 동종 업계에 위협이 되었고, 전통 기업들은 합병을 통해 스타링크와의 경쟁에 대응코자 함.

Russia attacked Odesa’s sea port with cruise missiles on Saturday, less than 24 hours after signing an agreement aimed at restarting Ukrainian grain exports from Odesa and two other Black Sea locations. Two Kalibr missiles hit the port’s infrastructure and two were shot down by Ukraine’s air defense, Serhiy Bratchuk, adviser to the head of the Odesa regional military administration, said on Telegram. The extent of damage to grain loading facilities was unclear. A large plume of smoke was visible across the city after the strikes. 

함의: 러시아는 오데사와 다른 두 지역에서 곡물 수출을 할 수 있도록 한 협정 24시간도 지나지 오데사 항구를 공격, 곡물 적재소의 피해는 불명확하나 미사일 2기는 격추되고 2기는 피해를 입혔음.

WHO Declares Monkeypox Outbreak an International Emergency.

The bond market wants to believe that Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell will succeed in getting inflation under control. It’s unclear just when the economy might witness an actual slowdown in consumer-price gains, which are presently running at the fastest pace in four decades. But as investors brace for the Fed’s next hike on Wednesday, bond-market measures suggest the traders’ outlook for inflation has been tempered and is back where it was in February, before the Russia-Ukraine war turbocharged commodity prices and exacerbated global supply-chain problems. That’s also encouraged investors to bet the Fed may end interest-rate increases earlier and at a lower level than previously thought. A key gauge of investors’ inflation expectations, known as the five-year, five-year forward breakeven rate, on Thursday fell to 2.02%, just beneath where it stood on Feb. 18 and the lowest closing level since early 2021. And while it rose Friday, the rate is well below the 2.57% mark hit back in April and much closer to the rate of 2% that the US central bank tries to anchor policy around.

함의: 채권시장은 파월이 인플레이션 통제를 성공하길 바라는 눈치로, 어느새 물가기대가 2월 18일 수준인 2.02%로 하락하며 중앙은행의 목표치인 2%에 근접함. 다만, 채권시장에는 중앙은행이 금리를 올린 뒤 당초보다 빨리 인하 사이클로 돌아설 것이란 베팅도 녹아있음.

The world’s largest economy remained in a precarious position in the second quarter, a government report is projected to show, adding to mounting recessionary angst just as the Federal Reserve leans in harder against inflation. US gross domestic product -- the sum of goods and services produced -- is forecast to have risen an annualized 0.5% during the April-June period, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Following the 1.6% rate of decline in the prior quarter, the economy’s first-half performance would be the worst of the pandemic recovery. Their challenge in tightening policy is to avoid overdoing it and nudging the economy into a downturn. A number of economists, in addition to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate, forecast a second quarterly decline in GDP that would fit the technical definition of a recession. 

함의: 미국 2분기 경제성장률은 연환산 0.5%로 예상되며, 1분기 1.6% 성장에 이어 대확산 이후 최악의 지표로 기술적 경기침체에 해당함.

In the past two weeks, Peter Brotman found himself evaluating two multimillion-dollar car collections offered for private sale. Each collection—one with more than a dozen significant Porsches, the other featuring a cache of heavy hitter Ferraris—represents a massive potential transaction on an ultra-rare group of cars that were so undercover that until recently, even Brotman himself wasn’t sure they existed. But if you ask the Philadelphia- and Los Angeles-based specialist whether he worries that the sales’ timing coincide with some precipitous drops in the stock market, he’ll smile. “These are not people who make decisions based on the stock market,” he says. Proverbial wisdom dictates that as market values tank, many investors seek the perceived stability of such commodities as gold. But many of the world’s wealthiest choose instead to sink money into tangibles, including cars. “Historically, when markets are down, that tends to be when money starts to flow into alternative assets, such as collector cars,” says Michael Caimano, a car specialist with RM Sotheby’s. “People see the disappointing performance of the stock market as a reason—or an excuse—to pour more money into cars,” wrote John Wiley, a Hagerty spokesperson, last month. There are levels to this mentality, though. Values are starting to plateau for the sub-million-dollar vintage sports cars that enjoyed a sales bonanza during the novel coronavirus pandemic, when records for both pricing and volume were set on such online platforms as Bring a Trailer and Market by Bonhams. But people shopping for blue chip items such as 1950s Ferraris, Mercedes-Benz Gullwings, and race cars from Jaguar and Porsche exist blissfully outside that field. They are simply not susceptible to market volatility. “In cars under a quarter of a million dollars, that's starting to correct a little bit. The COVID bump, if you will, has come off a little bit,” says Stephen Serio, a Boston-based broker of rare European vehicles. “But the markets don't mean a thing to anybody that can stroke a check for a $5 million or $10 million car.”

함의: 역사적으로 불황에 접어들 때 시장 하락에 전혀 영향을 받지 않는 막대한 부를 소유한 사람들은 희소한 가치를 지닌 올드카 수집에 더 많은 돈을 투입함.

This 1937 Mercedes-Benz 540 K Special Roadster—to be offered by RM Sotheby’s in Monterey, Calif., in August—is expected to be worth up to $12 million. 

The pandemic has put unprecedented strain on global supply chains -– and also on the workers who’ve kept those systems running under tough conditions. It looks like many of them have had enough. A surge in strikes and other labor protests is threatening industries all over the world, and especially the ones that involve moving goods, people and energy around. From railway and port workers in the US to natural-gas fields in Australia and truck drivers in Peru, employees are demanding a better deal as inflation eats into their wages. Precisely because their work is so crucial to the world economy right now –- with supply chains still fragile and job markets tight –- those workers have leverage at the bargaining table. Any disruptions caused by labor disputes could add to the shortages and soaring prices that threaten to trigger recessions.

함의: 인플레이션이 잠식해버린 임금으로 인해 더 나은 조건을 요구하는 노동자들의 파업과 시위가 증가하고 있으며, 이런 일련의 움직임이 침체를 더 가속화 시킬 수 있음.

China issued strong private warnings to the US government about a planned trip to Taiwan by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, which included a possible military response, the Financial Times reported. The warnings were much stronger than those made previously when China wasn’t pleased with US policies and actions related to Taipei, the paper said, citing unidentified people familiar with the issue. China’s foreign ministry earlier this week officially vowed to take a “resolute and strong” response to any Taiwan visit by Pelosi, which was reported to be next month. Her trip would be the first by a House speaker to Taipei since 1997. Pelosi’s office didn’t respond to a request from the Financial Times for comment about whether she might abandon her trip. Beijing routinely responds angrily to countries that deal directly with Taiwan, which China claims as part of its territory. President Joe Biden also raised doubts about whether the visit would go ahead, saying Wednesday that the military thinks it’s “not a good idea right now.”

함의: 1997년 이후 미국 하원 의장의 대만 첫 방문이 다음 달로 예정, 중국은 군사적 대응을 포함할 수 있다며 강력한 반발을 했음.

Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has reached the five-month mark. Outrage was swift after Moscow struck Odesa’s seaport on Saturday, less than 24 hours after signing an agreement to guarantee the safe transit of Ukrainian grain exports. In its first response, Russia said the strike had targeted “military infrastructure.” The US said the cruise-missile strike “casts serious doubt” on Russia’s commitment to the accord it co-signed, a deal that was brokered by Turkey and the UN after two months of talks. UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said the “appalling” strike showed the need for “a better way” of getting grain out of Ukraine. 

함의: 두 달간의 노력 끝에 맺은 협정을 24시간도 되지 않아 깬 러시아의 회신은, 군사 시설만 타겟으로 했다는 것임.

Relief, but still not clearly out of the FCI loop. For much of this year, the key dynamic in markets has been the relentless tightening in financial conditions – delivered either through higher rates as the market focused on the inflation overshoot, or through lower equities/wider spreads as recession risks built, and sometimes both. Periods of relief in growth or financial conditions have essentially sowed the seeds of their own demise, given the ongoing challenge of bringing inflation lower. While that basic picture has not changed much, market focus over the past six weeks shifted more squarely from inflation to growth risk as we previewed in our last Market Views: cyclical equities and currencies have moved lower, the Dollar has surged stronger and market inflation pricing has dropped sharply along with lower oil prices. As a result, the near-term asymmetry has shifted towards pricing relief from imminent recession risk, a process that has already begun over the last week. The recent drop in energy prices, and signs that some broader goods price relief may lie ahead, are providing welcome positive news on the supply side at least for now. Although we think the market has swung too hard towards imminent recession fears, we think relief from those fears will eventually set the stage for a return to higher yields and commodity prices. To move out of the FCI loop that has defined the last six months and achieve a sustained trough in risk assets will probably require more convincing evidence of a peak in underlying inflation that allows the market to be confident about the limits of the Fed hiking cycle.

보고서: 투자자들의 우려는 물가 공포에서 성장 공포로 가파르게 이동했고, 금융환경지표가 악화 상태에서 벗어나려면, 적어도 인플레이션 완화에 따른 중앙은행의 감속이 확인되어야 할 것임. (Goldman Sachs - Relief, but no green light)

"The best preparation for tomorrow is doing your best today."

- H Jackson Brown Jr