Doubling down. The Fed raised rates by 75 bps for the second straight month, and while Jerome Powell suggested a similar move was possible in September, he said the paces of increases will slow at some point. The chair also signaled there'll be less forward guidance, saying officials will go back to a meeting-by-meeting basis for its decision. While the statement noted that spending and production have softened, "I do not think the US is currently in a recession," Powell added.

함의: Fed Rally.

The Senate on Wednesday passed legislation that includes $52 billion in grants and incentives for US semiconductor manufacturing, an industry that has steadily lost ground to foreign competitors in recent years. The 64 to 33 vote comes after more than a year of debate and marks a major legislative victory for President Joe Biden, whose agenda has largely stalled in the Senate, where 60 votes are required to pass most legislation. The bill is expected to pass the House later this week and then move to Biden’s desk for his signature. Wall Street is likely to welcome the help. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index fell 30% this year through Tuesday, positioning the gauge for its worst annual performance since 2008.

함의: 60표 이상을 득표해야 통과 가능한 상원에 바이든 정부의 대기 중인 법안이 많은 가운데, 오랜 기간 끌어 온 반도체 기업에 대한 보조금이 64대 33으로 통과했다는데 주목함.

Meta Platforms Inc., which runs Facebook and Instagram, reported its first ever quarterly sales decline, citing advertisers’ shrinking budgets. Meta revenue slipped to $28.8 billion in the second quarter, missing the $28.9 billion average analyst estimate. The company’s forecast for the current quarter also fell short. Shares dropped in late trading. The company’s advertising sales efforts are hitting a number of snags. Marketers are spending less due to various economic pressures, leaving Meta and its peers to compete for the smaller budgets. Apple Inc.’s privacy rules have made ads on Facebook and Instagram less effective. 

함의: 심리가 위축 된 광고주들의 집행 감소와 애플의 개인정보 보호정책으로 인한 광고 효율 악화로 첫 매출 역성장을 기록함.

Apple Inc. has enlisted one of Lamborghini’s top car-development managers in a sign that it’s stepping up work on a self-driving electric vehicle, according to people with knowledge of the situation. The company hired Luigi Taraborrelli, a 20-year veteran of the Italian carmaker, to help lead the design of Apple’s future vehicle, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the matter isn’t public. Taraborrelli was most recently Lamborghini’s head of chassis and vehicle dynamics. The move is another signal that Apple is committed to producing a car following years of setbacks and upheaval. With his experience, Taraborrelli becomes one of the most senior managers on Apple’s EV team and brings some exotic-car panache to the effort. 

함의: 애플은 람보르기니에서 차량역학과 섀시를 담당하던 'Luigi Taraborrelli'를 전기차 부문 고위 관리자로 채용하면서 자동차 산업 진출에 명확한 의지를 보여줌.

Two bond market giants are diverging on whether the Federal Reserve is doing enough to tame inflation in the aftermath of the central bank’s interest-rate increase on Wednesday. In one corner, there’s Scott Minerd, the chief investment officer of Guggenheim Partners, which oversees more than $325 billion. He said the Fed’s guidance that it will likely move more slowly through the rest of the year won’t help bring down price growth. He sees inflation ending at still-hot levels this year at between 5% and 6% -- well above the central bank’s target. DoubleLine Capital CIO Jeffrey Gundlach, by contrast, said this week’s unanimous decision to raise its benchmark lending rate by another 75 basis points means the Fed is no longer “behind the curve.” It all speaks to big market divisions stoking volatility in US Treasuries and across Wall Street.

함의: 채권계의 두 거장은 인플레이션을 중앙은행이 통제할 수 있는가에 대해 극명하게 갈리는데, 스캇 미너드의 경우 연말까지 중앙은행의 목표치보다 높은 5%~6% 물가를 보게 될 것, 제프리 건들락의 경우 이번 금리인상으로 인플레이션에 뒤쳐지지 않는 수준이라 평가함.

Dudley Says Fed Will Hike Much Further Than What Markets Expect. Financial markets are underestimating just how far the Federal Reserve will go to tame a decades-high inflation rate, according to former New York Fed President Bill Dudley. “That’s quite a bit more than what’s priced into the markets today,” Dudley said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “The fact that he came back to the June SEP projections three to four times in his remarks suggests to me that the Fed thinks they’re going to do quite a bit more than what’s priced into the markets today.”. Dudley disagreed with Powell’s assessment that the Fed has already hiked rates to a neutral range. Given the level of uncertainty, “I’d be a bit more skeptical,” Dudley said, adding that the terminal rate is probably closer to 4%.

함의: 뉴욕 연준 총재였던 윌리엄 더들리는 시장이 인플레이션을 통제하기 위한 중앙은행의 행보를 과소평가하고 있다며 최종 정책금리가 4% 수준까지 도달 할 수 있다고 함.

Samsung Electronics Co.’s quarterly profit missed estimates after cooling demand for consumer gadgets hit its chip division, spurring concerns about the outlook for Big Tech in 2022. The world’s largest producer of smartphones and displays reported a less-than-expected 16% rise in net income, reflecting how it’s still navigating rising uncertainty around a potential global recession. Revenue from its semiconductor division, which as the world’s largest producer of memory is an indicator of electronics demand, missed analysts’ estimates by about 22%. Apple Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Microsoft Corp., which are all major buyers of chips, are reining in budgets for next year and, in turn, denting chipmakers’ capacity expansion plans, adding to tepid consumer demand. Samsung rival SK Hynix Inc. warned of waning memory growth and rising inventories, becoming the latest tech giant to sound the alarm over global economic uncertainty.

함의: 전자제품의 수요를 알려주는 메모리 부문에서 예상치를 -22% 하회, 수요 둔화로 순이익 -16% 하회함.

Chinese banks are rushing to boost capital as they prepare for a potential spike in bad loans due to the economic slowdown and spreading housing crisis. A record amount of fresh money has come from financial markets, with banks selling 29% more bonds in the first half of the year compared to last year to replenish capital and cover credit losses. Local authorities also provided funds from government bond sales to help cash-strapped regional lenders. China’s economy grew at the weakest pace in more than two years in the second quarter due to Covid lockdowns and a protracted housing market downturn, stoking worries about an increase in companies and individuals who cannot repay loans. Those fears deepened recently when hundreds of thousands of home owners said they would stop paying the mortgage on houses that aren’t built yet, raising the pressure on developers, who may face more difficulty selling projects and also have to repay banks loans. “We believe that asset quality is worsening due to Covid-related lockdowns, the property slump, the risks associated with small and micro loans, and the general economic slowdown in China,” said Harry Hu, a senior director at S&P Global Ratings. The capital injections from the government “will help those small regional banks with large bad loan burdens to clean up their books and support the local economies.” 

함의: 중국의 바이러스 대응 봉쇄정책, 부동산 침체, 경기둔화로 인해 발생 가능한 부실 대출 사고에 대비해 은행들이 자본을 빠르게 축적하고 있음.

The greenback now stands at an all-time high, according to some gauges. It's up 15% against a basket of currencies since mid-2021. And with the Fed determined to keep driving rates up to quell inflation — even if it means sinking the US and global economies into recession — there’s little that most long-time currency watchers see to brake the dollar’s climb. It’s all a bit reminiscent of the Fed’s Paul Volcker-led anti-inflation campaign in the early 1980s. Which is why chatter is growing about the possibility of a redux of the Plaza Accord, the agreement that international policy makers cut to artificially rein in the dollar back then. A similar deal may look like a long shot right now, but with some market metrics suggesting the dollar could easily climb the same amount again — gains that would convulse the global financial system and trigger all sorts of additional pain — it’s likely only a matter of time before that talk heats up.

함의: 산정 방법과 기간에 따라 그 폭은 다르지만 공히 달러 강세를 보여주는데, 오래 된 달러 지표로 볼 경우 폴 볼커 시대의 환생을 보는 듯한 통화정책에 머지 않아 플라자 합의가 떠오를지도 모르는 일.

Summer Just Began But Gas Buyers Are Already Rushing for Winter. Natural gas prices are headed for a historic rally as the world’s top importers rush to secure fuel for winter, when demand for the heating fuel peaks. Europe and Asia are locked in intense competition for liquefied natural gas shipments in order to refill inventories before temperatures fall, with prices in both regions already trading at a seasonal high. Russia’s move to curb pipeline gas to Europe forced the continent to turn to seaborne LNG as an alternative. UK physical gas forward prices for this winter surged to an all-time high on Wednesday, and are trading at a hefty premium to gas for prompt delivery. That indicates traders are already shifting focus to the winter.

함의: Winter Is Coming.

• 올드스쿨의 첫 희생양은 드라기, 이후는 누구일지,

Oil prices are more likely to rise than fall as the tightness in supply outweighs any risks to demand, said the boss of Shell Plc. “Where we are today, there is more upside than downside when it comes to the oil price,” Shell Chief Executive Officer Ben van Beurden said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Thursday. “Demand hasn’t fully recovered yet and supply is definitely tight.” The Shell CEO spoke after the company reported record-breaking profits for a second consecutive quarter due to high oil and gas prices. Even with Brent crude remaining above $100 a barrel there’s little sign of demand destruction, and consumption continues to recover from the pandemic, van Beurden said. There’s limited scope for extra oil supplies from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries or US shale producers, and the full effect of sanctions on Russia’s production may not yet have been felt, Van Beurden said. 

함의: 수요는 여전히 회복 중인데 공급은 한계치에 있어 원유 가격은 하방보다 상방일 가능성이 높다고 봄.