• 올드스쿨의 첫 희생양은 드라기, 이후는 누구일지,

Oil prices are more likely to rise than fall as the tightness in supply outweighs any risks to demand, said the boss of Shell Plc. “Where we are today, there is more upside than downside when it comes to the oil price,” Shell Chief Executive Officer Ben van Beurden said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Thursday. “Demand hasn’t fully recovered yet and supply is definitely tight.” The Shell CEO spoke after the company reported record-breaking profits for a second consecutive quarter due to high oil and gas prices. Even with Brent crude remaining above $100 a barrel there’s little sign of demand destruction, and consumption continues to recover from the pandemic, van Beurden said. There’s limited scope for extra oil supplies from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries or US shale producers, and the full effect of sanctions on Russia’s production may not yet have been felt, Van Beurden said. 

함의: 수요는 여전히 회복 중인데 공급은 한계치에 있어 원유 가격은 하방보다 상방일 가능성이 높다고 봄.

Billionaire Jack Ma plans to relinquish control of Ant Group Co., Dow Jones reported, citing people familiar with the matter said, part of the fintech giant’s effort to appease regulators following a lengthy crackdown. With Ma giving up control, a revival of Ant’s initial public offering could be put back another year or more, Dow Jones reported, citing Chinese securities regulations that require a timeout on public listings for companies that have gone through a change in control. Ma, who doesn’t hold any noscripts at Ant, currently controls 50.52% of voting rights in the company. He could transfer some of his voting power to other Ant officials including Chief Executive Eric Jing, Dow Jones cited the people as saying. Ant told regulators of Ma’s intention to cede control, the people said, adding that regulators didn’t demand the change but have given their blessing. 

함의: 규제당국이 요구한 것은 아니라고 하나 오랜 기간 규제 끝에 마윈은 50.52%의 지분을 다른 그룹 임직원에 나눠주며 통제권을 내려놓기로 했고, 이로 인해 기업공개 또한 연기될 것임.

China’s top leadership gave a downbeat assessment of economic growth but didn’t announce new stimulus policies at a key meeting, calling on officials to ensure that housing projects are completed following a wave of mortgage boycotts. The country should achieve “the best outcome” possible for economic growth this year while sticking to a strict Zero Covid policy, according to a statement after a meeting of the Politburo, which is the Communist Party’s top decision-making body. The leadership urged efforts be made to stabilize employment and prices to keep the economy running in a “reasonable range.”

함의: 중국의 추가 부양책은 없음.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un threatened to “eliminate” South Korea and said he was ready for any battle with the US in a speech to mark the 69th anniversary of the deal that ended fighting in the Korean War. Kim, making his first appearance in public in nearly three weeks, delivered one of his strongest rhetorical attacks against South Korea since conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol took office in May and pledged to take a tough line toward Pyongyang. The North Korean leader said that “US imperialists are pushing the South Korean authorities into a suicidal confrontation” with his country, the state’s official Korean Central News Agency reported Thursday.

함의: 'rhetorical attacks'

German inflation unexpectedly resumed its climb, adding urgency to the European Central Bank’s push to raise interest rates after its first hike in more than a decade last week. Consumer prices in the continent’s biggest economy jumped 8.5% from a year ago in July after edging down to 8.2% last month as a result of temporary government-relief measures. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a deceleration to 8.1%. A big jump in food and energy costs drove the surprise, more than offsetting temporary fuel-tax rebates and subsidized public-transport tickets.

함의: 독일의 물가가 식품 및 에너지를 중심으로 다시 상승해 전년 대비 +8.5%를 기록하며 유럽 중앙은행의 금리인상에 압박을 가하게 됨.

Europe’s era of “Germany knows best” is ending. For a decade, Berlin commanded moral and financial authority in the European Union, guiding policy and playing bad cop to the weaker southern economies. The energy crisis has upended that balance. Germany’s reliance on Russia has exposed the flaws of its economic model — high-intensity industry running on cheap gas — and the blindness of its political class to its dependence on the Kremlin. While Berlin is still coming to grips with the shock, Europe’s South is growing assertive. It is not revenge for years of German-led austerity, but a recalibration of forces that may ultimately result in a healthier EU. 

함의: '독일이 가장 잘 알고있다.'의 시대는 러시아의 침공을 계기로 값싼 에너지로 집약적 산업의 러시아 의존적 경제 모델일 뿐이란 한계를 드러냈고, 더는 독일에 따르지 않는 남부의 반항아들을 남기게 됨.

Ah! Technical recession! Two straight quarterly declines.

Technical recession. The US economy contracted an annualized 0.9% in the second quarter, following a decline of 1.6% in the prior period. Consensus was for growth of 0.4%.

With the S&P 500 on track for the best month since October, volatility traders are showing a growing appetite for protection, just in case. “It shows a lack of trust in the recent rally, or a desire by those who have tiptoed back into long positions to be hedging them,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers LLC. You can “view it through the lens of a bear who didn’t want to miss a rally but is otherwise mistrustful of it.”

함의: 최근 상승에 동의하지 않거나, 상승에 참여해도 신뢰가 부족한 투자자들이 변동성지수 콜옵션을 2020년 이후 최대로 매수함.

Amazon, Apple shrug off macro pressure to beat.

함의: Good!

Apple Inc. reported third-quarter results that narrowly beat Wall Street estimates, easing concerns that supply chain snags and a shaky economy would ravage the tech giant’s sales.  Amazon.com Inc. reported revenue that topped estimates and gave a strong sales forecast for the current quarter, allaying investor concerns about potential belt-tightening by inflation-rattled consumers. Shares jumped more than 12% in extended trading.

함의: 두 기업의 실적을 통해 인플레이션, 수요, 공급망 등의 우려가 모든 기업에 공히 영향을 주지 않음을 알게 함.

Intel Corp., the world’s biggest maker of computer processors, fell far short of analysts’ second-quarter sales and profit estimates and slashed forecasts for the year, weighed down by a drop in demand for data-center chips and a steep decline in PC shipments. Shares tumbled as much as 12% in late trading.

함의: IT 부문 기업의 실적 및 전망 지속 부정적임.

The US House of Representatives passed a bill that includes $52 billion in grants and incentives for domestic semiconductor manufacturing, sending it to President Joe Biden for his signature and delivering a win for his administration more than a year after legislation was first introduced in Congress. “This legislation is a major victory for American families and the American economy,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a statement before the vote. “Once enacted, the Chips and Science Act will bolster our nation’s production of semiconductor chips -- reinvigorating American manufacturing and creating nearly 100,000 good-paying, union jobs.”

함의: 바이든의 책상으로.

Bets against stocks by fast-money traders have largely been removed. Commodity trading advisors that take long and short bets in the futures market rushed to unwind bearish positions they had built over months and now have their overall exposure at neutral for the first time since March, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimates. Short positioning among CTAs helped check equity and bond selloffs throughout the first half, leading them to some of the best performance. That short covering this month has added fuel to the rally, though JPMorgan strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou warned that the support is likely fragile. “While in principle CTAs have room to start building up long positions from here, at the same time we acknowledge that their previous short base has been wiped out,” the strategists wrote in a note. “This implies that if, because of some negative news such as a strong US payroll report that triggers significant repricing of the Fed, momentum turns negative again, there is plenty of room for CTAs to start building up short positions again.” 

함의: 상반기 동안 주식이나 채권에 대한 CTA 포지션 추종은 좋은 성과를 내줬고, 현재 이들의 공매도 포지션은 완전 청산되어 중립 상태에 있음. 이론적으로 현재 상태에서 매수 포지션을 구축할 수도 있으나 부정적 뉴스나 지표에 따라 언제든 다시 공매도 포지션으로 전환 될 수 있음.