With the S&P 500 on track for the best month since October, volatility traders are showing a growing appetite for protection, just in case. “It shows a lack of trust in the recent rally, or a desire by those who have tiptoed back into long positions to be hedging them,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers LLC. You can “view it through the lens of a bear who didn’t want to miss a rally but is otherwise mistrustful of it.”

함의: 최근 상승에 동의하지 않거나, 상승에 참여해도 신뢰가 부족한 투자자들이 변동성지수 콜옵션을 2020년 이후 최대로 매수함.

Amazon, Apple shrug off macro pressure to beat.

함의: Good!

Apple Inc. reported third-quarter results that narrowly beat Wall Street estimates, easing concerns that supply chain snags and a shaky economy would ravage the tech giant’s sales.  Amazon.com Inc. reported revenue that topped estimates and gave a strong sales forecast for the current quarter, allaying investor concerns about potential belt-tightening by inflation-rattled consumers. Shares jumped more than 12% in extended trading.

함의: 두 기업의 실적을 통해 인플레이션, 수요, 공급망 등의 우려가 모든 기업에 공히 영향을 주지 않음을 알게 함.

Intel Corp., the world’s biggest maker of computer processors, fell far short of analysts’ second-quarter sales and profit estimates and slashed forecasts for the year, weighed down by a drop in demand for data-center chips and a steep decline in PC shipments. Shares tumbled as much as 12% in late trading.

함의: IT 부문 기업의 실적 및 전망 지속 부정적임.

The US House of Representatives passed a bill that includes $52 billion in grants and incentives for domestic semiconductor manufacturing, sending it to President Joe Biden for his signature and delivering a win for his administration more than a year after legislation was first introduced in Congress. “This legislation is a major victory for American families and the American economy,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a statement before the vote. “Once enacted, the Chips and Science Act will bolster our nation’s production of semiconductor chips -- reinvigorating American manufacturing and creating nearly 100,000 good-paying, union jobs.”

함의: 바이든의 책상으로.

Bets against stocks by fast-money traders have largely been removed. Commodity trading advisors that take long and short bets in the futures market rushed to unwind bearish positions they had built over months and now have their overall exposure at neutral for the first time since March, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimates. Short positioning among CTAs helped check equity and bond selloffs throughout the first half, leading them to some of the best performance. That short covering this month has added fuel to the rally, though JPMorgan strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou warned that the support is likely fragile. “While in principle CTAs have room to start building up long positions from here, at the same time we acknowledge that their previous short base has been wiped out,” the strategists wrote in a note. “This implies that if, because of some negative news such as a strong US payroll report that triggers significant repricing of the Fed, momentum turns negative again, there is plenty of room for CTAs to start building up short positions again.” 

함의: 상반기 동안 주식이나 채권에 대한 CTA 포지션 추종은 좋은 성과를 내줬고, 현재 이들의 공매도 포지션은 완전 청산되어 중립 상태에 있음. 이론적으로 현재 상태에서 매수 포지션을 구축할 수도 있으나 부정적 뉴스나 지표에 따라 언제든 다시 공매도 포지션으로 전환 될 수 있음.

Elon Musk says in Twitter posts that inflation might be trending down, noting that more Tesla commodity prices are trending down than up. Musk said last week that he thought inflation would decline towards the end of the year, also citing commodity prices. Musk was separately asked by a Twitter user whether Tesla prices would increase, to which he said “too early to say for sure.”

함의: 근데 너 가격은 계속 올리잖아...

South Korea’s semiconductor stockpiles expanded at the fastest pace in more than six years, adding to concern about the outlook for exports that drive the country’s economic growth. Nationwide inventory soared 79.8% in June from a year earlier, the statistics office said Friday, up from a 53.8% jump in May. At the same time, both production and shipments decelerated, suggesting a slowdown in the nation’s most profitable industry. The result casts a pall over the outlook for an economy where the central bank is in the midst of a yearlong tightening cycle. Memory chips are sold worldwide and underpin the strength of the won, which has been one of Asia’s worst performing currencies this year as trade deficits mount.

함의: 한국 경제성장을 주도하는 반도체의 재고가 6년래 최고 속도로 쌓이고 있으며, 무역적자 및 통화절하에 위협을 더함.

USD/JPY is extending early softness, falling as much as 0.6% in the last 30 minutes to a fresh 6-week low around 133.50/USD. There hasn’t been any obvious trigger for this latest down leg -- the move is most likely a result of firmer US futures and some sell-stops.

함의: Unwinding.

The “troubling triad” of rising rates, recession risk and dollar strength continues to dominate the macro landscape. We have pared our US growth expectations and now expect a technical recession in Europe. The market has moved towards pricing recession risk in its growth and inflation outlook, but a sustained and meaningful reduction in US inflation will likely be needed to prove the market correct in its expectation that Fed policy tightening will peak in December at 3.3% and drop 50 bp in 2023. This may require a more pronounced growth slowdown than markets expect. With another 50bp Fed hike in September and two 25bp hikes in November and December in store, the twin challenges of tightening monetary policy and slowing growth are likely to remain headwinds for equities in coming months. Within Asia, our economists have generally cut our GDP growth forecasts, raised CPI inflation forecasts and increased the expected level of policy rate tightening, indicating that the growth/rate pincers are in place domestically and not just in the US and Euro Area. Considering intrinsic resilience to interest rate and US macro risks as well as recent performance relative to key macro factors, ASEAN markets and financials appear better placed within the region.

보고서: 아시아 거시경제에는 금리상승, 경기침체 위험, 달러 강세라는 역풍이 동시에 존재하고 있기에 성장률 전망은 낮추고 물가 전망은 높였음. 시장이 바라는 미국 중앙은행의 통화정책 정점이 맞으려면 물가는 더 내려가고 성장 또한 더 둔화되어야 할 것임. (Goldman Sachs - Steering through summer snags)

Inflation is so first half, as least as far as bond investors are concerned. Global bonds are headed for the biggest monthly gain since November 2020 -- with a Bloomberg index surging 1.8% -- as the market’s focus switches to a fear of recession amid rapid Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. That’s a far cry from the previous six months, when the strongest inflation prints for a generation drove the gauge to a cumulative 14% loss. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s signal Wednesday that tightening may slow depending on economic data only added to the rebound. A report the following day showing the US economy shrank for a second quarter looks to have all but confirmed a global contraction as the new base case for investors, one that’s expected to curtail the uptrend in consumer prices.

함의: 상반기 -14% 손실을 기록한 채권지수는 투자자들이 침체를 기본 가정으로 삼고 금리인상 속도 둔화에 비중을 두기 시작하면서 +1.8% 상승함.

The US approved a sale of up to $8.4 billion in weapons to Germany, including Lockheed Martin-made F-35 fighter planes, emphasizing its ally's role as "an important force for political and economic stability in Europe." Ukrainian ships loaded with grain are ready to leave Odesa but are awaiting procedures to depart, the UN said. Russia is asking customers of the Sakhalin-2 LNG plant to make payments through a Russian bank.

함의: Could an F-14D beat an F-35C in a dogfight?

The more hawkish central banks become, the better for bonds. That’s the bottom line from a global ranking of government bond performance in July.

The powerful rally in stocks this month has put the S&P 500 and the Stoxx 600 on course for their biggest monthly gains since November 2020, as investors bet that most of the negative news has been priced in and as corporate earnings have been robust so far. Weaker economic data in the US have been feeding into expectations that the Fed could become less aggressive in tightening monetary policy. But Bank of America’s Hartnett said it’s “too early to reposition for a ‘Fed pivot’ bull trade.” The catalyst for a “final bear move” would be a deeper-than-expected recession in the next 12 months, caused by factors including higher-than-expected inflation, fresh geopolitical policy mistakes or new highs in oil and a European stagflation or energy crisis, the strategist said.

함의: 투자자들은 중앙은행의 기세가 눌리고 기업 이익이 견조함에 따라 강한 매수세를 이어갔지만, 예상을 뛰어넘는 물가나 지정학적 갈등, 그리고 에너지 위기나 스태그플레이션 등의 이슈로 1년래 최종 약세장의 움직임이 나타날 수 있어 적극적 비중 확대는 이르다고 함.

The International Monetary Fund said this week that Germany, Europe’s No. 1 economy, is set to be the worst performer in the Group of Seven nations in 2022 due to the reliance of its outsized industrial sector on Russian natural gas.

함의: 우월하다 여겼던 혈통이 크렘린에 의해 졸지에 가장 열위에 놓임.