Euro-zone inflation climbed to another all-time high, supporting calls for the European Central Bank to follow up its first interest-rate hike since 2011 with another big move. Consumer prices jumped 8.9% from a year earlier in July -- up from 8.6% last month and driven once again by soaring energy and food costs. The number overshot the expectations of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, who saw a gain of 8.7%.

함의: 물가상승의 정점을 지속 갱신함.

The collapse in cryptocurrencies is easing supply of the most sought after watches on the second-hand market, depressing prices for hard-to get-Patek Philippe and Rolex models. The supply of trophy watches such as the Rolex Daytona or Patek Nautilus 5711A “is now much larger,” online-watch trading platform Chrono24 said in an emailed statement. The recent swoon in cryptocurrency valuations “has directly impacted pricing of luxury watches from brands like Rolex and Patek Philippe,” said the company, which is based in Karlsruhe, Germany, and has more than half a million watches listed for sale on its website.

함의: 암호화폐 하락이 커지면서 중고시계 시장에 좀처럼 보기 힘들었던 데이토나, 노틸러스 5711A 모델이 쏟아지며 시세를 낮추고 있음.

Pershing Square founder Bill Ackman says workers are “watching their real purchasing power dwindle,” leading him to believe the “wage price spiral is well underway.” Ackman made his comments in a Twitter thread while isolating following his Covid-19 diagnosis. This week two of the Big Four accounting firms proposed a 6% increase in their annual audit contracts for a company we know well, 1% for scope changes and 5% for ‘inflation’. The Big Four are not directly exposed to gas or food inflation. Their primary costs are rent and wages. Office rents are not inflating in the new WFH world so the primary inflation they are experiencing is in wages to retain and recruit talent. Read the conf call trannoscripts of $CMG and other restaurant companies. They are raising prices to cover the increased wages they must pay. Note the striking activity in the rails and growing union movements around the country. Workers are watching their real purchasing power dwindle and demanding more so they can live. The wage price spiral is well under way. Why am I tweeting so much lately? I finally got Covid and I am isolating, with Twitter keeping me company.

함의: 비용은 임대료와 임금이 대부분인 4대 회계법인이 6%의 연간 감사 비용 인상을 제안했고, 이 중 인플레이션 명목이 5%였음. 본격적인 임금으로 인한 인플레이션이 시작될 것임.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said the US economy was “a ways” from entering a recession and the central bank had further to go in raising interest rates to get inflation under control. “I don’t think the country is in a recession,” he said Friday in an interview on National Public Radio, though he said it was clear that a lot of people were hurting in the current conditions. “Because of that we really need to address the high levels of inflation and get this economy back into a more stable and sustainable situation.” The Atlanta Fed president was the first central banker to speak publicly since the Fed on Wednesday raised interest rates by 75 basis points for the second straight month, delivering the most aggressive back-to-back increases in more than a generation to tackle rampant inflation.

함의: 중앙은행의 금리인상 후 첫 공식 석상의 발언은 경기침체에 접어들지 않았기 때문에 금리를 수단으로 인플레이션을 더욱 통제해야 한다는 것임.

Fed rates are "not close" to neutral, Bill Ackman said, and need to reach 4% or more. A neutral level of 2.25%-2.5% only makes sense in a world with 2% stable inflation, not in one with 9%, 6% or even 4%, he tweeted.

Meta shares closed down 5.2% on Thursday, pushing the social media company out of the 10 largest companies by market value in the US. The Facebook owner is now down nearly 60% from its peak in September 2021, when it ranked fifth in the list. The market capitalization loss from record levels would in itself make it the sixth biggest company in the US, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Should the stock end lower in July, that would make for its fourth straight monthly decline, its longest such streak since 2018.

함의: Metaworse.

The surprisingly high employment cost index (ECI), the Fed’s preferred wage gauge, means the central bank’s struggle with inflation is far from over, and bets on a “Fed put” for the market are clearly premature. Contrary to the expectation of markets -- and Bloomberg Economics -- wage growth shows signs of re-accelerating. Today’s data point has increased the risk that the Fed will have to go for another “unusually large” rate hike when it meets next in September.

함의: 중앙은행이 주시하는 임금 지표의 놀라운 상승은 'Fed Put'에 대한 기대가 시기상조임을 알려줌.

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said he was concerned the Federal Reserve is still engaging in “wishful thinking” about how much it will take to bring inflation down from four-decade highs. “Jay Powell said things that, to be blunt, were analytically indefensible,” Summers said on Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week” with David Westin. “There is no conceivable way that a 2.5% interest rate, in an economy inflating like this, is anywhere near neutral.”

함의: 현재의 인플레이션 수준에서 2.5%를 중립금리에 근접하다 말하는 것은 지나친 낙관이라 지적함.

Shock July Stock Rally Was a Monster the Fed May Regret Seeing. A dynamic in which surging stocks complicate the goal of subduing inflation is one reason giant rallies are rare in times of tightening. While the Fed may be ambivalent about equities in general, the role of markets in mediating a real-world economic lever -- financial conditions -- means they are never completely out of mind. Right now, those conditions are loosening in proportion to the S&P 500’s gains. Could that be a concern for Powell? The Fed chief said Wednesday that policy makers will be monitoring whether financial conditions -- a cross-asset measure of market stress -- are “appropriately tight.” But in the days since the central bank’s second straight 75 basis point hike, the measure is now at a level looser than before the first rate hike in March. “They don’t want easier financial conditions, because they want lower demand,” Bespoke Investment Group global macro strategist George Pearkes said. “Basically, markets are assuming we’ve hit peak hawkishness and we’ll be easing sooner than expected. I’m skeptical the Fed is going to endorse that.”

함의: 수요일 금리인상을 통해 금융시장환경이 충분히 긴축되는지 주시하겠다던 그들에게 3월 첫 금리인상 때보다 완화 된 금융시장환경지표에 무슨 생각을 할지 고민해봐야 함. 이는 인플레이션 억제 시기에 큰 폭의 랠리가 드물었던 이유기도 하다.

The US is tightening restrictions on China’s access to chipmaking gear, according to two major equipment suppliers, underscoring Washington’s accelerating efforts to curb Beijing’s economic ambitions. Washington had banned the sale of most gear that can fabricate chips of 10 nanometers or better to Chinese leader Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. without a license. Now it has expanded that barrier to equipment that can make anything more advanced than 14 nm, Lam Research Corp. Chief Executive Officer Tim Archer told analysts. The moratorium likely extends beyond SMIC and includes other fabrication plants run by contract chipmakers operating in China, including those by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. “We were recently notified that there was to be a broadening of the restrictions of technology shipments to China for fabs that are operating below 14 nanometers,” Archer said on a conference call on Wednesday. “That’s the change, I think, people have been thinking might be coming and we’re prepared to fully comply. We’re working with the US government.”

함의: 14nm 이하 공정에 대한 첨단 기술을 미국의 승인없이 중국(SMIC 등)과 계약하는 것을 금지하는 통보를 받았고, 이들은 이 통보에 충실히 따를 것이라 함.

New York Governor Kathy Hochul declared a disaster emergency due to the spread of monkeypox in the state through Aug. 28. The state is experiencing one of the highest rates of monkeypox transmission in the country with 1,383 reported cases as of Friday, Hochul said in the executive order. The virus was declared an imminent threat to public health by the New York State Commissioner of Health on Thursday. 

함의: 'monkeypox' 재난사태 선포.

Manufacturers across the euro area are getting more worried about the economic outlook. The industrial confidence, a gauge compiled by the European Commission, dropped to a 17-month low this month and fears of energy shortages and never-ending supply chain disruptions are weighing heavily on the sector. Of the major four economies, only the readings for Germany were above the regional print, and looking at the broader 19-member currency area, just another three countries -- Austria, Finland and the Netherlands -- saw managers more upbeat than the euro-zone average. While consumers’ inflation fears are still elevated, selling price expectations at companies declined this month. Manufacturers who since the start of the coronavirus pandemic consistently predicted prices to rise, now say that they will ease over the next few months. 

함의: 유럽 제조업 심리는 에너지 위기와 공급망 병목으로 인해 17개월래 최저를 기록했으며, 인플레이션 우려가 높아짐에도 불구 판매단가는 조만간 낮아질 것으로 보는 등 낙관보다 비관이 더욱 많았음.