Shock July Stock Rally Was a Monster the Fed May Regret Seeing. A dynamic in which surging stocks complicate the goal of subduing inflation is one reason giant rallies are rare in times of tightening. While the Fed may be ambivalent about equities in general, the role of markets in mediating a real-world economic lever -- financial conditions -- means they are never completely out of mind. Right now, those conditions are loosening in proportion to the S&P 500’s gains. Could that be a concern for Powell? The Fed chief said Wednesday that policy makers will be monitoring whether financial conditions -- a cross-asset measure of market stress -- are “appropriately tight.” But in the days since the central bank’s second straight 75 basis point hike, the measure is now at a level looser than before the first rate hike in March. “They don’t want easier financial conditions, because they want lower demand,” Bespoke Investment Group global macro strategist George Pearkes said. “Basically, markets are assuming we’ve hit peak hawkishness and we’ll be easing sooner than expected. I’m skeptical the Fed is going to endorse that.”

함의: 수요일 금리인상을 통해 금융시장환경이 충분히 긴축되는지 주시하겠다던 그들에게 3월 첫 금리인상 때보다 완화 된 금융시장환경지표에 무슨 생각을 할지 고민해봐야 함. 이는 인플레이션 억제 시기에 큰 폭의 랠리가 드물었던 이유기도 하다.

The US is tightening restrictions on China’s access to chipmaking gear, according to two major equipment suppliers, underscoring Washington’s accelerating efforts to curb Beijing’s economic ambitions. Washington had banned the sale of most gear that can fabricate chips of 10 nanometers or better to Chinese leader Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. without a license. Now it has expanded that barrier to equipment that can make anything more advanced than 14 nm, Lam Research Corp. Chief Executive Officer Tim Archer told analysts. The moratorium likely extends beyond SMIC and includes other fabrication plants run by contract chipmakers operating in China, including those by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. “We were recently notified that there was to be a broadening of the restrictions of technology shipments to China for fabs that are operating below 14 nanometers,” Archer said on a conference call on Wednesday. “That’s the change, I think, people have been thinking might be coming and we’re prepared to fully comply. We’re working with the US government.”

함의: 14nm 이하 공정에 대한 첨단 기술을 미국의 승인없이 중국(SMIC 등)과 계약하는 것을 금지하는 통보를 받았고, 이들은 이 통보에 충실히 따를 것이라 함.

New York Governor Kathy Hochul declared a disaster emergency due to the spread of monkeypox in the state through Aug. 28. The state is experiencing one of the highest rates of monkeypox transmission in the country with 1,383 reported cases as of Friday, Hochul said in the executive order. The virus was declared an imminent threat to public health by the New York State Commissioner of Health on Thursday. 

함의: 'monkeypox' 재난사태 선포.

Manufacturers across the euro area are getting more worried about the economic outlook. The industrial confidence, a gauge compiled by the European Commission, dropped to a 17-month low this month and fears of energy shortages and never-ending supply chain disruptions are weighing heavily on the sector. Of the major four economies, only the readings for Germany were above the regional print, and looking at the broader 19-member currency area, just another three countries -- Austria, Finland and the Netherlands -- saw managers more upbeat than the euro-zone average. While consumers’ inflation fears are still elevated, selling price expectations at companies declined this month. Manufacturers who since the start of the coronavirus pandemic consistently predicted prices to rise, now say that they will ease over the next few months. 

함의: 유럽 제조업 심리는 에너지 위기와 공급망 병목으로 인해 17개월래 최저를 기록했으며, 인플레이션 우려가 높아짐에도 불구 판매단가는 조만간 낮아질 것으로 보는 등 낙관보다 비관이 더욱 많았음.

The investing outlook for tech startups may be more mottled than a Claude Monet—but Christie’s said it sees a way forward. It’s launching a venture-capital arm. On Monday, the London-based auction house said it is starting its own in-house investing firm, Christie’s Ventures. The entity will aim to supply seed funding to young companies whose technologies could ultimately help collectors buy and sell more art, digital or otherwise. Christie’s move comes as the recent crash in crypto and the broader selloff in tech stocks have compelled traditional venture-capital firms to pull back from risky bets on startups. Funding for startups altogether fell 23%, to $109 billion, in the second quarter compared to the first three months of the year. That’s the second-largest quarterly funding drop in a decade, according to data firm CB Insights. Christie’s, which recently reported strong sales, said it plans to invest at least several million dollars in multiple startups in the coming weeks. The company said it has already invested an undisclosed sum into one Canadian startup, LayerZero Labs, that seeks to help people spend or move their digital assets like cryptocurrency across disparate blockchains. Devang Thakkar, global head of the auction house’s venture, said Christie’s is wading in now to apply its expertise to find companies potentially capable of solving problems that have long bedeviled the art trade. Mr. Thakkar said these could include technologies designed to help resolve authenticity disputes and track and catalog art owners more efficiently. Other tools he’s eyeing include those to more safely store and sell digital assets such as art-carrying NFTs, or nonfungible tokens that act like digital receipts.

함의: 암호화폐 폭락과 기술주 매도 속 십년래 두번째로 큰 폭의 벤처캐피탈 자금 감소가 발생한데 반해, 크리스티는 인하우스 벤처캐피탈을 설립하고 미술품을 사고 파는데 도움을 주고 작품의 진위여부, 소유자 목록화 및 기록, 혹은 대체 불가 토큰 사업 등에 효율을 높이는 회사에 투자할 것이라 밝힘.

The S&P 500 rallied to its highest level since June 7th this week as the busiest week of 2Q earnings season coincided with a busy macro calendar. Dovish messaging from the FOMC and better than feared corporate earnings have supported equities. Despite the idiosyncratic earnings season, the recent rally has been defined by rising stock correlations and falling volatility. S&P 500 return dispersion has therefore dropped to the 20th percentile since 1990 and created a more difficult environment for stock-pickers. We update our dispersion score framework. Comm Services and Consumer Discretionary offer the best stock-picking opportunities.

보고서: 주식시장은 시장 주도주의 실적발표와 중요 경제 이벤트가 동시하는 중에 랠리가 나왔고, 예상보다 나은 실적과 예상보다 덜한 중앙은행의 태도가 이를 이끌었음. 다만, 최근 주식 간 상관관계는 높아지고 변동성은 낮아지며 액티브 매니저들에게 더 어려운 환경이 되었음. (Goldman Sachs - A stock-picker’s guide to a macro-driven market)

Dennis Levitt got his first Tesla, a blue Model S, in 2013, and loved it. “It was so much better than any car I've ever driven,” the 73-year-old self-storage company executive says. He bought into the brand as well as Elon Musk, Tesla Inc.’s charismatic chief executive officer, purchasing another Model S the following year and driving the first one across the country. In 2016, he stood in line at a showroom near his suburban Los Angeles home to be one of the first to order two Model 3s — one for himself, the other for his wife. “I was a total Musk fanboy,” Levitt says. Was, because while Levitt still loves his Teslas, he’s soured on Musk. “Over time, his public statements have really come to bother me,” Levitt said, citing the CEO’s spats with US President Joe Biden, among others. “He acts like a seven-year-old.”. Before it was reported Musk had an affair with Sergey Brin’s wife, which he’s denied; before his slipshod deal, then no-deal, to acquire Twitter Inc.; before the revelation he fathered twins with an executive at his brain-interface startup Neuralink; before SpaceX fired employees who called him “a frequent source of distraction and embarrassment”; before his daughter changed her name and legal gender after his history of mocking pronouns; before an article said SpaceX paid an employee $250,000 to settle a claim he sexually harassed her, allegations he’s called untrue; Musk’s behavior was putting off prospective customers and perturbing some Tesla owners.

함의: 한 기업을 이끄는 수장의 일곱 살 아이 같은 대외 언행들이 맹목적일 정도의 제품 구매자, 그리고 주식 보유자들조차 등을 돌리게 할 수 있음.

Whatever else is on Americans’ minds — and that’s a long list right now — the state of the economy looms large in any US election. That spells big trouble for Democrats in November’s midterm vote. A new study by Bloomberg Economics takes one gauge with a knack of predicting ballot outcomes — the misery index, calculated by adding up the inflation and unemployment rates — and projects it forward through election day. The result: Based on past voting patterns, President Joe Biden’s party can expect to lose 30 to 40 seats in the House and a few in the Senate too, easily wiping out razor-thin Democratic majorities.
Of course, economics is only one part of the calculation that voters make. Democrats will be hoping that anger over abortion and gun laws and the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol by a right-wing mob will energize their supporters.

함의: 선거는 결국 유권자들의 실제 삶이 어떤지에 따라 결과가 나오며, 과거 선거 결과를 기반으로 한 모델이 산정한 바에 따르면 바이든 진영은 하원에서 30~40석, 상원에서도 몇 석을 잃으며 지배력을 상실할 위험이 있음.

Revenge of Old World Economy as Big Oil’s Cash Flow Rivals Tech. Exxon Mobil Corp.’s cash haul overtook that of Alphabet Inc. for the first time since 2018, proving the oil giant is back in the big league just a year after suffering one of the biggest activist shareholder upsets in corporate history. Exxon, which lost money for the first time in its history during the pandemic, now ranks as the S&P 500 Index’s third-largest generator of free cash flow, behind only Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In another sign of oil’s resurgence, Chevron Corp. jumped up in the ranks with a cash inflow that surprised analysts who were already expecting a record quarter. It’s a trend that Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s chief commodity strategist, calls the “revenge of the old economy.” Though accelerated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the seeds of current energy rally were sewn by the investor preference for tech-stocks over commodities in the past decade, Currie says, leading to anemic investment in hard energy assets like mines, oil fields, and refineries. 

함의: 지난 10년간 기술주로 쏠려간 투자에 소외되었던 구경제 기업들의 본격적인 반전 결과로 엑슨모빌이 S&P 500 지수 내에서 세번째로 큰 잉여현금흐름을 발생시키는 기업이 됨.

Job openings are near record highs in the US and unemployment is close to a generational low. But one category faces a tougher labor market than average: Young college graduates. Since the start of 2021, the unemployment rate for those age 22 to 27 with a bachelor’s degree or higher has surpassed the national average every single month, according to data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Friday. Last month, the gap stood at 0.6 percentage point. The pandemic era exacerbated a trend that started in mid-2018, when the advantage new graduates had enjoyed for almost three decades on the labor market reversed. From 1990 to 2018, they had a better chance of finding a job compared with other workers, the data show.

함의: 1990년부터 2018년까지 다른 구직자 대비 우월한 위치였던 대학 졸업생이 넘치는 일자리, 낮은 실업률에서 되려 구직난을 겪고 있음.

President Joe Biden tested positive again for Covid-19 in a so-called “rebound” case seen in people who take the antiviral drug Paxlovid. Biden, 79, isn’t experiencing symptoms after getting a positive rapid test on Saturday morning, but will resume isolation at the White House, his physician Kevin O’Connor said in a letter released by the White House. The test once again disrupted Biden’s schedule after he resumed in-person events this week. Trips on Sunday to his hometown of Wilmington, Delaware, and on Tuesday to Michigan to celebrate the passage of a bill to subsidize US semiconductor production were canceled, according to the White House.

함의: 바이든은 경구용 치료제 팍스로비드를 처방 받은 환자들에게 나타나는 재양성 반응으로 인해 다시 격리를 시작했고, 미시간에서 예정이던 반도체 보조금 법안 통과를 축하하는 일정이 취소됨.