Vladimir Putin said Russia’s fleet would soon be fitted with powerful “Zircon” hypersonic cruise missiles, which can fly at five times the speed of sound. He signed a new naval doctrine and vowed to respond “with lightning speed to anyone who decides to encroach on our sovereignty and freedom.”. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged civilians in the Donetsk region to evacuate to protect themselves from Russian attacks in what’s become a lengthy ground battle. A Ukrainian grain magnate was killed by Russian shelling in Mykolaiv. Russia’s defense ministry said it had invited experts from the United Nations and the Red Cross to investigate the deaths of Ukrainian POWs in the Olenivka detention center in occupied Donetsk.

함의: 러시아의 포격에 우크라이나 곡물 거부가 사망한데 이어 마하5의 초음속 크루즈 미사일을 해군이 장착하도록 서명하며 전쟁의 규모를 키우려고 함.

US shale drillers are expected to post record second-quarter profits in coming days, reversing nearly a decade of debt-fueled losses. The top 28 publicly traded US independent oil producers generated $25.5 billion in free cash flow in the three months to June 30, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. In that space of time they’ll have made enough cash to erase one-fourth of what they lost over the previous decade. Fracking revolutionized global energy markets by enabling American drillers to harvest shale resources that had previously been untouchable. In the space of just over 10 years, the US went from a declining crude producer to the world’s dominant oil and gas source, but at an astronomical cost: the 28 companies lost about $115 billion in the decade leading up to the Covid-19 pandemic.

함의: 수평시추와 수압파쇄를 통한 셰일혁명은 미국을 원유 및 가스 생산자로 만들었지만 천문학적 비용을 감당케 했는데, 최근 이 업체들은 2분기에만 지난 10년 손실의 25% 규모에 해당하는 현금흐름을 창출한 것으로 추정됨.

The last time inflation burned hot, consumers could put money in the bank and watch it grow like the prices on store shelves, easing much of the pain. Not this time -- and that’s stoking profits for US lenders. The gap between what banks pay depositors and what they earn from lending money to borrowers hasn’t been so wide in the past half-century, with the average savings account paying a skimpy 0.06%. Many banks are telling shareholders that so-called deposit betas — measuring how quickly deposit rates rise in the wake of Fed hikes — will remain advantageous for banks in the months ahead, as they’re not yet feeling much pressure to pay savers more. Betas are now the buzziest bit of jargon across the financial industry. The phrase was invoked more times during Bank of America Corp.’s analyst briefings in the past two months than in the prior two years combined. This month, the lender’s executives predicted interest income may climb by as much as $1 billion in the third quarter from the second as they stay “disciplined” in what they pay customers. “Our consumer-banking segment continues to see good momentum,” Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan told analysts July 18. “We grew loans at the fastest quarterly pace in nearly three years.”

함의: 과거 인플레이션 시기에 예금을 통해 소비자는 적당한 만족을 얻을 수 있었지만, 최근 대출금리와 예금금리 간 차이가 크게 벌어지며 인플레이션은 은행에게만 커다란 이익을 줄 것으로 예상됨.

We do not see lower US rates on any incremental Fed dovishness as a threat to the dollar amid rising recession risks. USD has historically always risen in recessions even as the Fed cuts aggressively and is principally rooted in economic weakness outside the US that is largely Fed invariant, and shows few signs of abating. Business surveys are sliding in Europe, and are coupled with another sharp rise in natural gas prices. In China, the Politburo meeting disappointed hopes of big bang policy stimulus. Stay defensive.

보고서: 중앙은행의 금리인상에 대한 기대가 낮아지면서 달러의 강세가 완화될 것으로 기대하는 쪽이 있지만, 경기가 침체에 도달할 수록, 그리고 비미국 국가의 경제가 미국 대비 더 약할 때라면, 중앙은행이 금리를 인하해도 달러는 강세를 보였다는 것을 알아야 함. (J.P.Morgan - Tactics vs. strategy around the dollar)

"Roots are not in landscape or a country, or a people, they are inside you."

- Isabel Allende

Will she or won't she? Nancy Pelosi departed for Asia with no official sign that Taiwan is on her itinerary. China, which has warned of consequences including the possible use of military force if the House speaker visits the island, held live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait on Saturday. Pelosi's office said her delegation will visit Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia, with a focus on security, economic partnership and democratic governance.

힘의: 갈 것인가, 안 갈 것인가?

For carry traders battered by the dollar’s rally and higher US borrowing costs, the euro’s worst plunge since 2005 couldn’t have come one moment sooner. Investing in emerging-market currencies with borrowed euros is raking profits of as much as 29% this year depending on the choice of the higher-yielding currency, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The gains are being driven by the euro’s 10% drop against the dollar, which took the cross to parity for the first time in two decades. Those who funded the same carry positions with the greenback had much less lucrative results: not only the overall strategy is failing for a third successive year, but most individual emerging-market currencies are also producing losses. Even in Latin America, profits have stalled after a stellar start. Needless to say, traders are switching. “Funding carry trades by selling euro is becoming more common,” said Brendan McKenna, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York. “The European Union looks more likely to fall into recession and geopolitical developments should weigh on the currency, making emerging-market carry trades funded by the euro an interesting option.”

함의: 신흥국에 투자하는 달러 캐리 트레이드가 올해 뿐 아니라 3년간 손실을 본데 반해 유로 캐리 트레이드는 유로가 패리티까지 하락하며 올해 +29% 수익을 기록, 유럽의 침체가 가시화되면서 캐리 트레이더들에게 유로화가 좋은 수단이 되고 있음.

China’s banks face mortgage losses of $350 billion in a worst-case scenario as confidence plunges in the nation’s property market and authorities struggle to contain deepening turmoil. A spiraling crisis of stalled projects has dented the confidence of hundreds of thousands of homebuyers, triggering a mortgage boycott across more than 90 cities and warnings of broader systemic risks. The big question now is not if, but how much it will batter the nation’s $56 trillion banking system. In a worst-case scenario, S&P Global Ratings estimated that 2.4 trillion yuan ($356 billion), or 6.4% of mortgages, are at risk while Deutsche Bank AG is warning that at least 7% of home loans are in danger. So far, listed banks have reported just 2.1 billion yuan in delinquent mortgages as directly affected by the boycotts. 

함의: 중국의 부동산 보이콧이 확산될 경우 현재 3.1억 달러에 불과한 모기지 관련 은행 부실이 최악의 시나리오에서는 전체 모기지론의 6.4%인 3,560억 달러에 이를 수도 있다고 경고함.

South Korea’s exports extended gains in July, suggesting the global economy remains resilient amid concerns that rapid central bank tightening could tip the world into a recession. Overseas shipments increased 9.4% from a year earlier, the trade ministry said Monday, compared with economists’ forecasts for a 10% gain. Average daily shipments, which take into account one less business day than a year earlier, rose 14.1%, the customs office said. Overall imports advanced 21.8%, resulting in the second-largest trade deficit in figures dating back to 2000, and the fifth time the economy recorded a shortfall in seven months this year.

함의: 한국 수출은 중앙은행의 긴축과 경기침체 우려에도 불구 전년대비 +9.4% 증가했으나 수입이 전년 대비 +21.8% 증가하며 4개월 연속 수지 적자를 기록함.

The Taiwan dollar slid past a key psychological level of 30 per US dollar for the first time since June 2020 amid bleak economic prospects for the island. The currency fell as much as 0.2% to 30.008 per dollar amid foreign outflows that reached $626 million this quarter. Taiwan last week lowered its unofficial economic outlook for the year amid waning global demand for electronics and rising inflation. Asia’s factories continued to report weakening activity in July amid lingering supply chain complications and a slowing global economy. Investor sentiment is also cautious amid geopolitical risks surrounding a potential visit by Nancy Pelosi to the island. Pelosi left Taiwan out of the itinerary in a statement on Sunday announcing the trip, which will also include stops in Japan, South Korea and Malaysia. Yet speculation is still rife that Pelosi would visit Taiwan at some point this week, risking a heavy-handed response from China, which regards the self-governing island as its territory.

함의: 달러 대비 대만 통화가 제조업 둔화와 공급망 이슈, 경기침체 우려 속에 심리적 지지선을 돌파했고, 미국 하원의장의 부인에도 불구 대만 방문 가능에 여전한 의심을 품으며 지정학적 갈등 위험까지 반영하고 있음.

The number of companies that have delayed or canceled financing plans has soared to at least 358 as the global economy continues to battle inflation and energy shortages. The deals, including initial public offerings, bonds, loans and acquisitions, amount to more than $254 billion. The Americas saw the highest number of transactions being postponed or shelved at 184, which was more than double the tally for other regions. The high Americas’ numbers were due to a slowdown in its equity market with 136 IPOs pulled since January, making up two-thirds of total listings shelved for the year globally. In the debt market, borrowers are still facing challenges raising funds, with 103 deals worth at least $64 billion delayed or scrapped globally since the beginning of the year. July also saw the first Schuldschein transaction being postponed due to Europe’s energy crisis.

함의: 세계경제가 인플레이션에 따른 금리인상, 에너지 부족 위기 등을 겪는 동안 358건 2,540억 달러에 달하는 기업공개, 자금조달, 인수 등이 취소되거나 연기되었음. 특히 미국의 경우 358건 중 184건이 해당하면서 가장 큰 비중을 차지함.