South Korea’s exports extended gains in July, suggesting the global economy remains resilient amid concerns that rapid central bank tightening could tip the world into a recession. Overseas shipments increased 9.4% from a year earlier, the trade ministry said Monday, compared with economists’ forecasts for a 10% gain. Average daily shipments, which take into account one less business day than a year earlier, rose 14.1%, the customs office said. Overall imports advanced 21.8%, resulting in the second-largest trade deficit in figures dating back to 2000, and the fifth time the economy recorded a shortfall in seven months this year.

함의: 한국 수출은 중앙은행의 긴축과 경기침체 우려에도 불구 전년대비 +9.4% 증가했으나 수입이 전년 대비 +21.8% 증가하며 4개월 연속 수지 적자를 기록함.

The Taiwan dollar slid past a key psychological level of 30 per US dollar for the first time since June 2020 amid bleak economic prospects for the island. The currency fell as much as 0.2% to 30.008 per dollar amid foreign outflows that reached $626 million this quarter. Taiwan last week lowered its unofficial economic outlook for the year amid waning global demand for electronics and rising inflation. Asia’s factories continued to report weakening activity in July amid lingering supply chain complications and a slowing global economy. Investor sentiment is also cautious amid geopolitical risks surrounding a potential visit by Nancy Pelosi to the island. Pelosi left Taiwan out of the itinerary in a statement on Sunday announcing the trip, which will also include stops in Japan, South Korea and Malaysia. Yet speculation is still rife that Pelosi would visit Taiwan at some point this week, risking a heavy-handed response from China, which regards the self-governing island as its territory.

함의: 달러 대비 대만 통화가 제조업 둔화와 공급망 이슈, 경기침체 우려 속에 심리적 지지선을 돌파했고, 미국 하원의장의 부인에도 불구 대만 방문 가능에 여전한 의심을 품으며 지정학적 갈등 위험까지 반영하고 있음.

The number of companies that have delayed or canceled financing plans has soared to at least 358 as the global economy continues to battle inflation and energy shortages. The deals, including initial public offerings, bonds, loans and acquisitions, amount to more than $254 billion. The Americas saw the highest number of transactions being postponed or shelved at 184, which was more than double the tally for other regions. The high Americas’ numbers were due to a slowdown in its equity market with 136 IPOs pulled since January, making up two-thirds of total listings shelved for the year globally. In the debt market, borrowers are still facing challenges raising funds, with 103 deals worth at least $64 billion delayed or scrapped globally since the beginning of the year. July also saw the first Schuldschein transaction being postponed due to Europe’s energy crisis.

함의: 세계경제가 인플레이션에 따른 금리인상, 에너지 부족 위기 등을 겪는 동안 358건 2,540억 달러에 달하는 기업공개, 자금조달, 인수 등이 취소되거나 연기되었음. 특히 미국의 경우 358건 중 184건이 해당하면서 가장 큰 비중을 차지함.

Germany’s presidential palace in Berlin is no longer lit at night, the city of Hanover is turning off warm water in the showers of its pools and gyms, and municipalities across the country are preparing heating havens to keep people safe from the cold. And that’s just the beginning of a crisis that will ripple across Europe. It might still be the height of summer, but Germany has little time to lose to avert an energy shortage this winter that would be unprecedented for a developed nation. Much of Europe is feeling the strain from Russia’s squeeze on natural gas deliveries, yet no other country is as exposed as the region’s biggest economy, where nearly half the homes rely on the fuel for heating.

함의: 독일은 겨울 에너지 부족에 대응하여 불필요한 에너지 사용을 줄이는 지침을 시행하기 시작함.

A worsening crisis in China’s real estate sector is dragging industry shares to the lowest in almost five months, with home sales slumping further and setbacks spreading at the nation’s most indebted developer. A Bloomberg Intelligence index of developer stocks dropped as much as 2.3% to the lowest level since March 16. Guangzhou R&F Properties Co. and Country Garden Holdings Co. led the declines, each losing at least 6%. The industry’s outlook turned darker after data showed home sales in the country extended a plunge amid a widening mortgage boycott, while China Evergrande Group failed to unveil a long-promised restructuring framework on time. Investor confidence also weakened on news of a plan mulled by authorities to seize distressed developers’ idle land to help complete stalled projects, a move that could cost creditors access to some of builders’ most valuable assets.

함의: 중국 경제에는 언제나 회색 코뿔소란 수식어가 함께했음.

With the busiest week of the second-quarter earnings season over, investors are relieved that results are holding up better than feared, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists. Of the 56% of S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far, more than half have beaten analyst estimates -- above the long-term average of 47%, strategists led by David J. Kostin wrote in a note dated July 29. That, combined with “dovish messaging” from the Federal Reserve, has provided a boost to equities, they said. Still, at 52%, the rate of earnings beats is trailing the 62% average pace set in the last five quarters, Kostin said, suggesting that stocks are not out of the woods yet after posting their strongest monthly rally since November 2020. Although investors have been optimistic that corporate profits are proving resilient to the impact of scorching inflation and glum consumer sentiment, strategists are divided on the course for earnings estimates through the second half of the year -- and its impact on equities -- especially against the backdrop of a looming recession.

함의: 미국 기업 실적발표가 집중되었던 지난주 이후 집계 된 결과를 보면 투자자들 우려에 대비해 더 나은 실적을 보인 회사가 많았고, 이를 통해 인플레이션과 수요감소라는 우려스러운 환경에 기업들이 적응하고 있다는 기대를 불어넣음.

European factory activity plunged and Asian manufacturing output continued to weaken in July amid lingering supply-chain complications and a slowing global economy.
Purchasing managers’ indexes for the euro area’s four largest members all indicated contraction, with shrinking confirmed for the region as a whole after an initial estimate on July 22. In Asia, it was China, South Korea and Taiwan that took the biggest hit. The reports reflect the darkening outlook for the world economy that forced the International Monetary Fund to last week lower its global growth forecast for this year and next, warning an outright recession may be just around the corner.

함의: 유럽 4대 경제국의 제조업 지수가 위축국면에 접어들고 아시아에서 중국, 한국, 대만 또한 제조업에 타격을 입으면서 경기침체 그림자가 가까움을 경고한 IMF의 전망이 실재하고 있음.

Investors have lately become strangely optimistic that the Federal Reserve won’t have to tighten monetary policy much further, bidding up stocks and bonds amid hopes that the Federal Reserve will soon get inflation under control. This wishful thinking is both unfounded and counterproductive. The market’s exuberance appears to stem in part from Jerome Powell’s latest news conference, in which the Fed chair observed that growth had slowed, didn’t commit to another 75-basis-point rate increase in September and suggested that monetary tightening might curb excess demand for workers without doing too much harm to those currently employed. This has fueled speculation of a “pivot” to smaller interest-rate increases, with some even arguing that the Fed has done enough already. Don’t be confident about such an outcome. For one, Powell repeatedly referred to Fed officials’ projections from June, which show the federal funds rate reaching 3.8% in 2023 — more than 50 basis points higher than what financial markets currently expect, and difficult to reconcile with the pivot hypothesis.

함의: 그러게, 우리는 왜 뜬금없이 중앙은행이 인플레이션을 통제할 수 있다는 근거없는 믿음을 가지게 됐는가.

China again warned that its military would take action if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi makes a landmark visit to Taiwan, as speculation mounted in Taipei that she could arrive there as soon as Tuesday. The People’s Liberation Army “won’t sit idly by” if Pelosi visited Taiwan, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said Monday, echoing similar comments made by the Defense Ministry last week. “Her stature as the No. 3 US official means a trip would be highly sensitive,” Zhao told a regular press briefing in Beijing. “As to what measures, let’s wait and see whether she insists on this visit.”

함의: 나 가만히 안있을거야(won’t sit idly by)란 말하는 사람치곤... 그렇지만, 지정학적 위험은 높아지고 있음.