Asia’s chip giants are falling behind in a share-price rally staged by their global peers over the past month, and that divergence is unlikely to narrow easily. The region’s dominance in memory chips used for smartphones makes Asian firms particularly vulnerable to weakening global consumption. US-China tensions are also giving firms, especially those in Taiwan, the added complication of navigating a political standoff between the world’s two largest economies. Since the end of June, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -- a majority of which are US firms -- has gained about 16%, bottoming out as extreme fears over the Federal Reserve’s tightening eased. In contrast, the Bloomberg gauge of Asian semiconductor shares has risen just 3.5%, an unusually large performance gap.

함의: 채찍효과의 끝자락에 있는 국가에서 나타나는 일, 다만 확대 된 격차가 지속되는 것은 드문 경우임.

From supply anxiety to inventory overhang: In our research, we noted that investors should mind the bullwhip effects, which can occur given "orders had surged amid anxiety about sourcing product, thus inflating backlogs and setting the scene for a sharper-than-expected short-term unwind, particularly for consumer electronics and segments facing demand destruction risk."

함의: 투자자는 항상 채찍효과를 염두해야 함. (Morgan Stanley - Supply Chain Chokepoint Tracker and Inflection Monitor: Bullwhip Effects Broadening)

Asia’s emerging economies are drawing on large foreign exchange reserves to help prop up their currencies rather than going all-out with interest-rate hikes. India, Thailand and Korea have seen their reserves drop by a combined $115 billion this year as they sold dollars to curb currency declines. While most central banks in Asia are also raising rates, economists see this aimed more at tamping down inflation than narrowing the rate differential with the Federal Reserve.
The hope in the region is that a relatively slow and shallow hiking cycle will be enough to keep a lid on price gains without sending economies into reverse. “Emerging-markets Asia central banks are arguably less willing to indulge in competitive hikes,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore. “The build-up of FX reserves provides some scope for these central banks to exploit this as a means to backstop currencies and contain imported inflation.”

함의: 신흥 아시아 국가들은 금리인상을 통해 선진국과 정책금리 격차를 줄이려는 방법보다 외환보유고를 활용해 자국통화 절하를 방어하고 간접적으로 인플레이션을 완화하는데 활용하고 있음.

Shippers rerouted vessels as China began its most provocative military drills in decades around Taiwan, creating logistical headaches for global supply chains. China’s military kicked off three days of live-fire military exercises around Taiwan in response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit, even as Taipei played down the impact on flights and shipping. Live-fire drills in six areas surrounding the island began as planned at noon Thursday, Chinese state broadcaster China Central Television reported. The PLA’s Eastern Theater Command conducted long-range shooting drills in the Taiwan Strait around 1 p.m. on Thursday, CCTV said, adding that a “precise strike” was carried out in an unspecified area in the eastern part of the Taiwan Strait. It gave no other details.

함의: 십수년만의 실사격 군사훈련이 대만 주변에서 시작되었고, 목표지점이 공개되지 않은 정밀타격도 포함됐음. 광범위한 훈련에 따라 공급망에 지장을 줄 움직임도 보임.

For a group supposedly keen on dialing back forward guidance, Fed officials sure have been doing plenty of guiding this week. A drop in the benchmark Treasury yield toward 2.5% seems to have been the trigger, sparking a rush to the microphones from an array of policy makers amping up the hawkish rhetoric lest we had forgotten their commitment to fight inflation. Fed Bank St. Louis President James l Bullard said he favors a strategy of “front-loading” big interest-rate hikes, while his Richmond and Minneapolis counterparts -- Barkin and Kashkari -- noted the importance of tackling inflation. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly endorsed a half-point September hike, but didn’t rule out a 75-basis-point move. The jaw-jaw has pushed yields back up again, and odds on a three-quarter point rate increase next month have gone up. But investors continue to bet the Fed will be back easing policy next year with between two and three rate cuts still priced in.

함의: 미국 국채 10년물 수익률이 2.5%에 도달하면서 중앙은행 인사들이 통화정책에 강한 의지를 표명했지만, 시장 참여자들은 여전히 내년 2~3차례의 금리인하가 있을 것이란 정책완화 기대를 하고 있음.

The recent brisk rebound in equity markets won’t last as the macroeconomic data continue to deteriorate and earnings forecasts are being slashed, strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Sanford C. Bernstein warn. “Without clear signs of a positive shift in macro momentum, temporary re-risking could actually increase risks of another leg lower in the market rather than signal the end of the bear market,” Goldman strategists led by Cecilia Mariotti wrote in a note dated Aug. 4. With investors once again flocking to equities in recent weeks, Goldman strategists said market positioning has improved from a very bearish level seen in June, and the swing in asset allocation could fuel the rally in the short term. But ultimately, strategists said they’re “not convinced that we are past the ‘true’ trough in positioning just yet, and we think the path from here is likely to become more dependent on macroeconomic data.” Bernstein strategists Sarah McCarthy and Mark Diver said in a note on Thursday that the earnings downgrade cycle is just starting along with outflows from stock funds. While investors have stopped buying equities in the second quarter, funds haven’t yet seen a reversal of the “huge” inflows of $200 billion seen in the first quarter, they said. “We expect another leg down in the market in the short run,” Bernstein strategists wrote.

함의: 곰 두 마리.

BOE Raises Rates by Most Since 1995, Warns of Long Recession. The Bank of England unleashed its biggest interest-rate hike in 27 years as it warned the UK is heading for more than a year of recession under the weight of soaring inflation. The half-point increase to 1.75% was backed by eight of the bank’s nine policy makers, who also kept up a pledge to act forcefully again in the future if needed, potentially putting similar hikes on the table for coming meetings.

함의: 영국 중앙은행은 9명 중 8명 동의로 27년만의 50bp 인상을 함.

BlackRock Inc. is partnering with Coinbase Global Inc. to make it easier for institutional investors to manage and trade Bitcoin, marking a major push into cryptocurrencies for the world’s largest asset manager. Top clients will be able to use BlackRock’s Aladdin investment-management system to oversee their exposure to Bitcoin along with other portfolio assets such as stocks and bonds, and to facilitate financing and trading on Coinbase’s exchange, according to a statement Thursday. The focus of the partnership with Coinbase, the biggest US crypto-trading platform, “will initially be on Bitcoin,” BlackRock said. The move underscores how Wall Street’s traditional financial players are expanding deeper into crypto and related technologies, even after this year’s meltdown in such assets. Bitcoin has lost about half of its value in 2022, while the collapse of the Terra ecosystem and Three Arrows Capital have raised questions about the resilience of the market and prompted increased regulatory scrutiny.

함의: 블랙락은 암호화폐 가격 붕괴 및 각종 논란의 사태에도 불구 전통자산에서 암호화폐로 고객의 포트폴리오를 다각화하기 위해 코인베이스와 협력관계를 맺음.

Since around the mid-2000s, the ETF landscape has become increasingly treacherous. It started with funds that — like the new single-stock ETFs — bet against broad indexes or use borrowed money as leverage to juice their daily returns. Then came volatility funds, structured funds and ever more concentrated baskets of the most speculative stocks. These newer funds flipped the odds — the longer people dabble in them, the worse off they’re likely to be, at least relative to buying the broad market.

함의: 새로운 상장지수펀드(ETF)는 과거와 다르게 보유기간 증가와 비례해 위험해지고 갉아먹히는 구조로 만들어짐.

"Some books are so familiar that reading them is like being home again."

- Louisa May Alcott

China likely fired missiles over Taiwan during military drills on Thursday, Japan said, part of Beijing’s biggest cross-strait exercises in decades after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the self-ruled island. The Ministry of Defense in Tokyo estimated that five ballistic missiles landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone, and four of those probably flew over Taiwan. If confirmed, it would mark a major escalation as it would be the first time China has flown missiles over Taiwan itself. Officials in Taiwan haven’t commented on the specific flight path of the projectiles. The People’s Liberation Army in China fired 11 Dongfeng ballistic missiles into waters north, east and south of Taiwan between 1:56 p.m. and 4 p.m. local time Thursday, the island’s Defense Ministry said in a statement. Sun Li-fang, a ministry spokesman, earlier said missiles had been fired from land, without providing more details.

함의: 중국이 대규모 군사훈련을 실시하고 있는 가운데 지상에서 발사된 것으로 추정되는 탄도 미사일이 대만 상공을 지난 것으로 보이며, 이는 지금까지 없었던 일로 중대한 사항임.