There has never been a serious question as to whether or not Russia could demolish Ukraine militarily and establish dominance in the short-term. Russia, however, does not have the capability to manage an occupation in a country the size of Ukraine, and I believe America is hoping that this will become Russia's Iraq. Putin has made it clear that one of his goals is to install a puppet regime (like the US in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and many, many other places). But the likelihood of the Ukrainian population capitulating to such a puppet regime is low, and the US can certainly guarantee a prolonged insurgency by backing both domestic nationalist groups and a steady supply of mercenaries.
The suggestion that Russia is intent on re-establishing the old Soviet Union is a non-starter -- Russia does not have the capability to do this. An occupation of Ukraine will bleed Russia beyond recovery; forget about opening up new fronts in the former Soviet republics. But the point here is not really Russia or Ukraine, it is Europe. Extracting Russia from the global economy does not seriously impact the United States, but it will be devastating for Europe (as well as many developing nations). This is de-globalisation accelerated; the abandonment of the post-WWII world order; and Europe is going to have to fend for itself -- country by country.
The Ukraine war can be described, quite accurately I believe, as a proxy war by the US against Europe.
The suggestion that Russia is intent on re-establishing the old Soviet Union is a non-starter -- Russia does not have the capability to do this. An occupation of Ukraine will bleed Russia beyond recovery; forget about opening up new fronts in the former Soviet republics. But the point here is not really Russia or Ukraine, it is Europe. Extracting Russia from the global economy does not seriously impact the United States, but it will be devastating for Europe (as well as many developing nations). This is de-globalisation accelerated; the abandonment of the post-WWII world order; and Europe is going to have to fend for itself -- country by country.
The Ukraine war can be described, quite accurately I believe, as a proxy war by the US against Europe.
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A 2014 report by the World Bank evaluates the details of the usefulness of violent conflict for imposing the neoliberal program. The report compares and contrasts the macroeconomic situations in countries with and without violent conflict.
Approximately 20% of the world's poor live in conflict zones, a statistic which already reveals the advantages of violent crisis for neoliberal progress.
The World Bank questioned its collaborators in countries experiencing violent instability and in countries without such conditions. 64% of respondents in conflict zones felt their countries 'were moving in the right direction, only 51% agreed in non-conflict zones'.
World Bank collaborators, what they refer to as "stakeholders", saw greater opportunities for neoliberal conquest in the areas of energy, agriculture, transport, and privatization of state enterprises and assets in countries of violent crisis than in countries without bloody conflict.
Approximately 20% of the world's poor live in conflict zones, a statistic which already reveals the advantages of violent crisis for neoliberal progress.
The World Bank questioned its collaborators in countries experiencing violent instability and in countries without such conditions. 64% of respondents in conflict zones felt their countries 'were moving in the right direction, only 51% agreed in non-conflict zones'.
World Bank collaborators, what they refer to as "stakeholders", saw greater opportunities for neoliberal conquest in the areas of energy, agriculture, transport, and privatization of state enterprises and assets in countries of violent crisis than in countries without bloody conflict.
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Just to clarify; my interest in the Ukraine war is not because I have any particular concern about Ukraine or Russia – overall, this is not a conflict about which Muslims need to feel obliged to take sides. My interest is in the ramifications of the conflict, and what it suggests about the trajectory of Europe and American foreign policy.
Of course, there are indirect consequences to this war that will impact Muslims globally – the rise in the oil price will increase the budgets of Saudi Arabia, UAE, and the Gulf States, which will likely lead to intensification of the war on Yemen, and further expansion of the UAE’s sphere of influence through militarization and regional investment; the price of wheat will increase which will lead to shortages in the Arab world and food inflation (and we know what happened last time this occurred); availability of fertilizers will be reduced, which will harm farming in the Muslim world (particularly in Africa), and there may well be famines as a result; export-led economies like Malaysia will face challenges in their post-Covid recovery plans, and so on. It is not that this conflict does not affect our people, just because it is predominantly a war that does not directly involve us.
But, for me, the most important thing about what is happening is that it signifies an abandonment of the US-sponsored post-WWII world order and an acceleration in the process of de-globalisation. Modern Europe was underwritten by American security over global trade as a strategy for confronting the USSR – those days are over. The US does not appear to regard Europe’s safety or prosperity as a priority anymore, which means that each country on the continent will soon have to fend for itself, and we are likely to see a return to what Europe has historically always been – divided, desperate, and war torn. As power has increasingly transferred to the private sector and multinational (anational) corporations, there is less regard for the wellbeing and stability of states; and Europe will not be spared.
This should be an impetus for the Muslim world to develop a revived and reformed concept of the old non-aligned movement of the Cold War era, and pursue a union of Muslim states to create a trade corridor across the Muslim world, independent of the West or global North, including the facilitation of travel, capital flows, and preferential investment agreements. I say “Muslim union” and not “Islamic union” deliberately, because unity and cohesion cannot feasibly be achieved across the Muslim world on the basis of any particular definition of what constitutes “Islamic”, but may be feasible on the basis of fundamental brotherhood.
Ukraine is the canary in the mine shaft, Europe is moving towards catastrophic decline, and our nations must prepare for a future in which we can create prosperity and political independence for our Ummah. This is why I am interested in what is happening in Ukraine.
Of course, there are indirect consequences to this war that will impact Muslims globally – the rise in the oil price will increase the budgets of Saudi Arabia, UAE, and the Gulf States, which will likely lead to intensification of the war on Yemen, and further expansion of the UAE’s sphere of influence through militarization and regional investment; the price of wheat will increase which will lead to shortages in the Arab world and food inflation (and we know what happened last time this occurred); availability of fertilizers will be reduced, which will harm farming in the Muslim world (particularly in Africa), and there may well be famines as a result; export-led economies like Malaysia will face challenges in their post-Covid recovery plans, and so on. It is not that this conflict does not affect our people, just because it is predominantly a war that does not directly involve us.
But, for me, the most important thing about what is happening is that it signifies an abandonment of the US-sponsored post-WWII world order and an acceleration in the process of de-globalisation. Modern Europe was underwritten by American security over global trade as a strategy for confronting the USSR – those days are over. The US does not appear to regard Europe’s safety or prosperity as a priority anymore, which means that each country on the continent will soon have to fend for itself, and we are likely to see a return to what Europe has historically always been – divided, desperate, and war torn. As power has increasingly transferred to the private sector and multinational (anational) corporations, there is less regard for the wellbeing and stability of states; and Europe will not be spared.
This should be an impetus for the Muslim world to develop a revived and reformed concept of the old non-aligned movement of the Cold War era, and pursue a union of Muslim states to create a trade corridor across the Muslim world, independent of the West or global North, including the facilitation of travel, capital flows, and preferential investment agreements. I say “Muslim union” and not “Islamic union” deliberately, because unity and cohesion cannot feasibly be achieved across the Muslim world on the basis of any particular definition of what constitutes “Islamic”, but may be feasible on the basis of fundamental brotherhood.
Ukraine is the canary in the mine shaft, Europe is moving towards catastrophic decline, and our nations must prepare for a future in which we can create prosperity and political independence for our Ummah. This is why I am interested in what is happening in Ukraine.
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How or why it escapes the attention of many people that the United States has arguably not engaged in a serious military conflict in at least 30-40 years that was not undertaken for the purpose of destabilisation, I do not know. America does not engage in wars to win them anymore, they engage in wars for their own sake – to destroy, destabilise, and to profit; that is all.
Ukraine is not a vital national interest of the United States, not even remotely. Whatever function Ukraine has in the global economy, it would continue to fulfil whether independent, or annexed by Russia. The outcome of the war is irrelevant to America, all that is sought is the devastating consequences of the war; on Ukraine, on Russia, and on Europe. Asking “will Ukraine or Russia win?” is to miss the point entirely. The purpose is destabilisation, no more, no less.
Ukraine is not a vital national interest of the United States, not even remotely. Whatever function Ukraine has in the global economy, it would continue to fulfil whether independent, or annexed by Russia. The outcome of the war is irrelevant to America, all that is sought is the devastating consequences of the war; on Ukraine, on Russia, and on Europe. Asking “will Ukraine or Russia win?” is to miss the point entirely. The purpose is destabilisation, no more, no less.
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The disconnect of Muslims in North American and Europe from the broader Muslim world has become conspicuous in their respective reactions to the war in Ukraine. While Muslims in Western countries appear to fully embrace the anti-Russian, pro-Ukrainian narrative of their countries' media and governments; Muslim populations in the Arab world, Africa and Asia have largely adopted a much more ambivalent, if not bluntly skeptical attitude. There is a quiet consensus among Muslims outside the West that America is up to its familiar duplicitous games regarding Ukraine and Russia, and this sentiment has been reflected in the notably muted response of their governments.
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Israelis are among the many foreign fighters flocking to Ukraine to defend the Zelensky government against the Russian invasion; which is interesting since Volodymyr Zelensky (who is Jewish) is also being backed by the openly neo-Nazi Azov Brigades who refer to Jews as sub-humans. But even more interesting is the fact that the Azov Brigades were largely funded by Jewish-Ukrainian oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky. After the overthrow of Ukraine’s democratically elected president, Viktor Yanukovych; Kolomoisky backed Zelensky – whose comedy TV series aired on Kolomoisky’s channel. In Ukraine, Zelensky was known at the time as Kolomoisky’s puppet, and during his presidency, the Azov Brigades were integrated into Ukraine’s military.
For the Israelis, war in Ukraine is likely to mean a boost in Jewish immigration to Israel to the tune of tens of thousands. Prior to the Russian invasion, both the World Jewish Congress and the Simon Wiesenthal Center expressed alarm at the rise in antisemitism and Nazism in Ukraine, following the invasion, those statements have been deleted.
It may be worth mentioning that the New Zealand mass shooter at the Christchurch mosque trained with the Azov Brigades.
For the Israelis, war in Ukraine is likely to mean a boost in Jewish immigration to Israel to the tune of tens of thousands. Prior to the Russian invasion, both the World Jewish Congress and the Simon Wiesenthal Center expressed alarm at the rise in antisemitism and Nazism in Ukraine, following the invasion, those statements have been deleted.
It may be worth mentioning that the New Zealand mass shooter at the Christchurch mosque trained with the Azov Brigades.
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Not sure if I mentioned this before, but Middle Nation does have a mirror channel on Odysee
https://odysee.com/@MiddleNation:6
https://odysee.com/@MiddleNation:6
Odysee
Middle Nation
Welcome to the Middle Nation channel, the new incarnation of the former Qawwamun channel. Here we will broaden our discussion of issues relevant to the Muslim Ummah beyond the scope of our previous f...
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Now, this deserves some comment. The International Energy Agency has proposed a 10-point plan for reducing oil consumption. Now, first of all, this serves to reiterate what I have already mentioned in a recent podcast; namely, that cutting Europe off from Russian oil is being used as an impetus for pushing already existing plans for reducing fossil fuel usage – there is no serious plan for replacing Russian oil, but rather, only a plan for acclimating the public to foregoing oil altogether. This plan basically entails various forms of imposed discipline on the population’s energy consumption, and that is what the 10-point plan covers…how YOU can stop polluting the planet with your dirty fuel.
So, let’s just point something out here; the single biggest consumer of oil in the world is the US military, and roughly 70% of carbon emissions are caused by industry, only a couple dozen companies, in fact. And between 15% to 20% of emissions are related to multinational corporations offshoring manufacturing and maintaining sprawling supply chains. The average billionaire has a carbon footprint roughly 1,100 times greater than the average normal person – your carbon footprint is approximately 7 metric tonnes of CO2 per year, a billionaire’s is around 8,300 tonnes.
Energy discipline is not being imposed upon these climate change offenders, which means that you are being disciplined precisely to that they won’t be. You will bear the brunt of energy shortages, the military won’t, industry won’t, multinational corporations won’t, and billionaires won’t. Why not? Because it has nothing to do with saving the environment, and everything to do with Austerity and social control.
So, let’s just point something out here; the single biggest consumer of oil in the world is the US military, and roughly 70% of carbon emissions are caused by industry, only a couple dozen companies, in fact. And between 15% to 20% of emissions are related to multinational corporations offshoring manufacturing and maintaining sprawling supply chains. The average billionaire has a carbon footprint roughly 1,100 times greater than the average normal person – your carbon footprint is approximately 7 metric tonnes of CO2 per year, a billionaire’s is around 8,300 tonnes.
Energy discipline is not being imposed upon these climate change offenders, which means that you are being disciplined precisely to that they won’t be. You will bear the brunt of energy shortages, the military won’t, industry won’t, multinational corporations won’t, and billionaires won’t. Why not? Because it has nothing to do with saving the environment, and everything to do with Austerity and social control.
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