Middle East Spectator — MES – Telegram
Middle East Spectator — MES
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News & Analysis on Middle East

Independent, but not unbiased, striving for a multipolar world. Mainly focused on Iran & Resistance Axis.

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Owner: @Hajj_Khomeini

Introduction: https://news.1rj.ru/str/Middle_East_Spectator/4

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❗️🇮🇷/🇺🇸 Senior advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Shamkhani:

'In the early days of the 12-Day War, when many of the commanders had been assassinated by Israel, there was a substantial vacuum in military leadership.

In these crucial hours, many orders to the Armed Forces were issued directly by the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, and he took control of the battle until new commanders assumed their positions.'

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🇮🇷/🇷🇺 NEW: Russian-made 'Spartak' MRAPs, in service of NOPO (Iran's special anti-terrorism units) during last month's pro-Islamic Republic demonstrations in Tehran

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❗️🇮🇷/🇺🇸/🇮🇱 Senior advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Shamkhani: 'If the U.S. attacks Iran, we will automatically consider Israel as a co-conspirator, and an appropriate response will take place in Tel Aviv'

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❗️🇺🇦/🇮🇷 NEW: President Volodymyr Zelensky announces that Ukraine has designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization

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Middle East Spectator — MES
❗️🇺🇦/🇮🇷 NEW: President Volodymyr Zelensky announces that Ukraine has designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization @Middle_East_Spectator
❗️🇺🇦/🇮🇷 BREAKING: Iran will designate the Armed Forces of Ukraine as a terrorist organization and expel the Ukrainian ambassador from Tehran

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🇺🇦/🇮🇷 Iran's ambassador to Ukraine:

'Zelensky, who has just designated a part of our national military as a terrorist organization, is the one who has been oppressing part of his own people, simply for the crime of speaking Russian.

Furthermore, it is Zelensky and his European masters which have have no problem targeting Russian civilians and refusing to end a war that has devasted the Ukrainian youth and deprived them of their future.'

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🇺🇦/🇮🇷 Zelenskyy on X:

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(Kiev is currently being struck by a large wave of missiles and drones)
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🇮🇷 NOTE: All the news about Iran agreeing to ship the uranium to Russia is false.

Ali Shamkhani, one of those supervising the negotiation process, said in an interview tonight with Al-Mayadeen that the enriched uranium will not leave Iran no matter what.

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🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Ali Bagheri Kani, Iran's SNSC Deputy for Foreign Policy:

'Iran has no intention of transferring enriched uranium to any country, and the negotiations are not evolving around such a matter at all.'

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🇺🇸 Correspondence between Epstein and Elon Musk in 2013:

Epstein: 'Any plans for NYC? The opening of the [UN] General Assembly has many interesting people coming to the house.'

Musk: 'I run and lead product design/engineering for two complicated companies. Moreover, SpaceX is about to launch what is arguably the most advanced rocket in history. Flying to NYC to see UN diplomats do nothing would be an unwise use of time.'

Epstein: 'Do you think I am retarded? I was just kidding. There is no one over 25, and they're all very cute.'

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🇫🇷/🇮🇱 NEW: French authorities have issued arrest warrants for two French-Israeli 'activists,' Nili Kupfer-Naouri and Rachel T., on charges of complicity in genocide

Both 'activists' played an instrumental role in blocking humanitarian assistance to Palestinians during the genocide in Gaza.

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The gift that keeps on giving
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I'm going to ask Khamenei if Polymarket is halal, because I would legit bet all my savings that there won't be a nuclear deal

Easiest money ever made.
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The chance, in my opinion, is AT BEST 20%, and that can only happen if the U.S. and Iran both make a major concession (which is impossible at the current stage)
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🇮🇷 NEW: Iranian sources report that Iran's position on a nuclear deal is 'unchanged' and the same as before the 12-Day War

Iran is willing to accept a deal where it is allowed to enrich uranium on Iranian soil up to 3.67% purity—far from the 60% needed for the most primitive nuclear weapons.

All of the current 408 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium would stay in Iran, but Iran is willing to commit to IAEA supervision (i.e. inspections) on these stockpiles—IF a fair and equitable deal is reached.

Any such deal, from Iran's perspective, should include the lifting of all U.S. sanctions on Iran's economy, reconnection to the SWIFT payment system, the release of frozen Iranian assets abroad, and guarantees that the U.S. won't pull out of the Nuclear Deal like President Trump did back in 2018.

Ballistic missile program is absolutely non-negotiable and Khamenei has BANNED any discussions on this topic even taking place.

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Middle East Spectator — MES
🇮🇷 NEW: Iranian sources report that Iran's position on a nuclear deal is 'unchanged' and the same as before the 12-Day War Iran is willing to accept a deal where it is allowed to enrich uranium on Iranian soil up to 3.67% purity—far from the 60% needed…
🇺🇸/🇮🇷 The current American demands for a deal are very far from what Iran is willing to accept

The U.S. position rests on 3 main points:

1. No enrichment on Iranian soil
2. Removal of all enriched uranium
3. Restrictions on the missile program

From these points, 2. is by far the most important. Iran's 408 kilograms of 60% HEU poses the most immediate threat in terms of nuclear breakout capability, and the Trump administration either wants it removed from Iran or fully destroyed. Best case scenario they would MAYBE consider accepting is diluting the current stockpile to 20% and putting it under IAEA + American supervision, and even that would be hard to accept.

Regarding 1. I think Trump won't show any flexibility. The U.S. doesn't want Iran to enrich at all on Iranian soil. Not because 3.67% enriched uranium (needed for reactors) poses a threat, but because enrichment requires active enrichment centers, meaning operational centrifuges. And those centrifuges could rapidly switch to enriching far beyond 3.67%, which is what America sees as a threat. There have been proposals about a regional 'enrichment consortium' or enriching on a Persian Gulf Island under U.S. supervision, but this seems unrealistic.

Regarding 3. I think this is not a serious U.S. demand as they know it's not rational and Iran will never agree; ballistic missiles guarantee Iran's survival, and limiting the missile program would be tantamount to complete surrender. Limiting the missile program is mainly an Israeli demand, which they've pushed the Americans to hold onto.

All in all, there's extremely little wiggle room, and I'm pessimistic about the chances of success, unless one side makes a major concession, which I don't see Iran doing. Some in the Iranian leadership even think a small conflict with the U.S. or Israel is necessary to re-establish deterrence, appetite for a deal is generally low.

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Apparently Qatar is considering offering Iran billions of dollars to sign a nuclear deal. And wants to be a guarantor, just like in Gaza, alongside Turkey and possibly Pakistan.
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🇮🇷/🇪🇬/🏳️‍🌈 NEW: After pressure from Iran and Egypt, FIFA guaranteed that there won't be any gay symbols on the players match kits, including the captain's armband, at the 'LGBTQ+ Pride' World Cup match in Seattle

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