New Model Predicts Nearly 90,000 COVID-19 Deaths in Brazil

In its first forecasts for COVID-19 deaths outside North America and Europe, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington is projecting nearly 90,000 deaths in Brazil through early August.

"IHME's new forecasts for a growing number of countries around the world demonstrate the wide range of responses policymakers and health officials have had to the pandemic," said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray. "We aim to inform their decisions on how best to manage and mobilize for COVID-19."

IHME's current forecasting lasts through August 4 and, as Murray noted, the Institute's projections will change as new data are acquired and analyzed. Fluctuations are to be expected.

Brazil: 88,305 deaths projected through August 4, with a range of 30,302 to 193,786

Mexico: 6,859 deaths projected through August 4, with a range of 3,578 to 16,795

Ecuador: 5,215 deaths projected through August 4, with a range of 4,844 to 6,052

Peru: 6,428 deaths projected through August 4, with a range of 2,731 to 21,724

Egypt: 2,047 deaths projected through August 4, with a range of 805 to 6,059

Philippines: 1,735 deaths projected through August 4, with a range of 1,094 to 3,972

South Korea: 346 deaths projected through August 4, with a range of 262 to 755

Sweden: 5,760 deaths projected through August 4, with a range of 4,426 to 9,089

Israel: 272 deaths projected through August 4, with a range of 266 to 279

UK: 43,479 deaths projected through August 4, with a range of 40,110 to 50,128

US: 147,040 deaths projected through August 4, with a range of 113,182 to 226,971

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-ihme-covid-19-projections-brazil-could-see-nearly-90-000-deaths-301058113.html

🦠@COVID19report

Deaths per 1 M population

786 | 🇧🇪 Belgium
594 | 🇪🇸 Spain
532 | 🇮🇹 Italy
521 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom
429 | 🇫🇷 France
371 | 🇸🇪 Sweden
334 | 🇳🇱 Netherlands
317 | 🇮🇪 Ireland
281 | 🇺🇸 United States
219 | 🇨🇭 Switzerland
161 | 🇪🇨 Ecuador
157 | 🇨🇦 Canada
122 | 🇵🇹 Portugal
98 | 🇩🇪 Germany
95 | 🇩🇰 Denmark
89 | 🇵🇪 Peru
85 | 🇮🇷 Iran
82 | 🇧🇷 Brazil
70 | 🇦🇹 Austria
54 | 🇫🇮 Finland
50 | 🇹🇷 Turkey
43 | 🇳🇴 Norway
41.5| 🇺🇳 World
41 | 🇲🇽 Mexico
32 | 🇮🇱 Israel
25 | 🇵🇱 Poland
19 | 🇷🇺 Russia
13 | 🇺🇦 Ukraine
9 | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
8 | 🇦🇷 Argentina
6 | 🇯🇵 Japan
5 | 🇰🇷 South Corea
3 | 🇨🇳 China
2 | 🇮🇳 India

Source: WorldOmeter

Les comparto el ensayo «La nueva política económica en los tiempos del coronavirus».

Video: https://youtu.be/snwnxgYCIos

Ensayo: https://bit.ly/EnsayoNuevaPolitica

🧬New peer-reviewed lab studies in Boston, Massachusetts show that antibodies created in response to COVID-19 provide temporary immunity from SARS-CoV-2 in monkeys. SOURCE @COVID19Up

🇧🇷 JUST IN: Brazil reports a daily record of 19,951 new cases of coronavirus. @COVID19Up

🇨🇳 On Wednesday, the Chinese mainland reported:

- No new COVID-19 deaths
- 1 new domestic case in Shanghai
- 1 more imported case in Guangdong Province
- 31 asymptomatic cases
- 84 active cases in total, including 8 in critical condition

🇺🇸 US coronavirus deaths rise by 1,561 in 24 hours. @COVID19Up

🇷🇺 A female nurse at a hospital in Tula, central Russia became an online sensation overnight after she turned up to work wearing nothing but underwear beneath a see-through protective suit, gloves and goggles.

A photo of the nurse, clad in a sheer plastic protective suit and carrying a tray full of medication she was about to administer to her ailing patients, went viral after it was first reported by Tulskie Novosti late Tuesday. 

The picture was reportedly taken at a regional hospital for infectious diseases in Tula, the largest city of Tula Region, 193 kilometers (120 miles) south of Moscow - RT @COVID19Up

Mexico Exceeds 2,000 COVID-19 Cases in 24 Hours for the First Time

With the Juarez Hospital near capacity, Mexico has reported its largest one-day rise in COVID-19 cases. It was the first time the number of new cases in Mexico has exceeded 2,000 in one day.

Mexico is seeing the worst of the pandemic at this point.

Based on information from 13 funerals homes in the capital, the excess mortality rate in the first week of May could be at least two and a half times higher than the government's official coronavirus tally during that period.

The findings suggest that official statistics in Mexico may be far underestimating the true death toll from COVID-19.

https://www.kgns.tv/content/news/Mexico-COVID-19-cases-exceed-2000-in-one-day--570675441.html

🦠@COVID19report

Notimex.- El Instituto de Biotecnología de Beijing y la compañía Cansino Biologics anunciaron los resultados de la fase 1 de la primera vacuna contra Covid-19 que se pone en marcha en el país asiático.

De acuerdo con un artículo publicado en la revista The Lancet, los 108 voluntarios que participaron en el experimento toleraron la vacuna, por lo que resultó segura, ademas de que permitió que crearan anticuerpos tipo T.

Los síntomas adversos que los participantes presentaron fueron dolor en el lugar de la inyección, fiebre, fatiga, dolor de cabeza y dolor muscular, pero en todos los casos, fue de gravedad leve o moderada.

Distintos tipos de anticuerpos aumentaron significativamente junto con la respuesta específica de las célula T, lo que significa que se crearon mecanismos de defensa ante la presencia de virus.

Notimex.- The Beijing Biotechnology Institute and the Cansino Biologics company announced the results of phase 1 of the first vaccine against Covid-19 that is launched in the Asian country. According to an article published in The Lancet, the 108 volunteers who participated in the experiment tolerated the vaccine, making it safe, in addition to controlling that they create type T antibodies. Adverse symptoms that patients experienced were pain at the injection site, fever, fatigue, headache, and muscle pain, but in all cases it was mild or moderate. Different types of antibodies increased significantly along with the specific response of T cells, which means that they will be created in defense mechanisms against the presence of viruses.

Vacuna china contra Covid-19 resulta exitosa en primeras pruebas https://www.forbes.com.mx/mundo-vacuna-china-covid-19-exitosa-primeras-pruebas/

Youyang Gu, un científico de datos independiente que estudió en el Instituto Tecnológico de Massachusetts (MIT) se ha vuelto una referencia para quienes quieren saber cuánto pueden aumentar las muertes con la vuelta a las actividades cotidianas.

Sus análisis en el sitio covid19-projections.com son citados por los Centros de Control de Enfermedades (CDC) en Estados Unidos y que coinciden con las proyecciones que se hacen desde la Casa Blanca. De entre 10 modelos de proyecciones de muertes por COVID-19 hechas por institutos y universidades estadounidenses, el de Gu es el que tiene el menor margen de error desde que empezó a hacer las estimaciones en marzo de este año.


¿Y cuántos calcula para México?

Además de Estados Unidos, Gu también aplica su modelo a escala internacional, pero hace una aclaración importante: no está optimizado para otros países, así que recomienda precaución con estas proyecciones.

Para nuestro país, asumiendo que la vuelta a las actividades no esenciales empezará el 1 de junio, pasaría de 5,666 muertes reportadas el 19 de mayo a 73,910 para el 4 de agosto. Es un incremento exponencial de decesos pero, reiteramos, el modelo de Gu no está optimizado para otros países, por lo que hay que tomar esta cifra con precaución.

En los últimos días, las autoridades de salud han reportado un incremento continuo de casos confirmados y de decesos por COVID-19.

Revista cientifica Entrepreneur.