(#) Fighterbomber reports that Russian forces have lost 6 helicopters (3x Mi-8mtpr, 1x Mi-8, 1x Ka-52, 1x Mi-35) and 1 fixed wing asset (IL-22M) so far today.

t.me/fighter_bomber…

(#) Images of part of the Wagner convoy outside of Voronezh earlier today, with a few thoughts.

- T-72B3 on a heavy equipment transporter, with the crew riding in the tank, theoretically they could roll off very quickly or even engage a target from the transporter.

(#) Wagner infantry using a conventional trailer for transport, makes Russian target discrimination near impossible.

(#) One thing I have noticed, while Wagner is hauling a company-size formation of tanks to Moscow, lightly armed Russian Rosgvardiya forces have been unable to put any heavy armor on the streets in Moscow.

Seen below, a checkpoint south of Moscow with a single BTR-80.
OSINTtechnical: Images of part of the Wagner convoy outside of Voronezh earlier today, with a few thoughts.

- T-72B3 on a heavy equipment transporter, with the crew riding in the tank, theoretically they could roll off very quickly or even engage a target from the transporter.

(#) And why should they? Rosgvardiya is a light paramilitary force, dealing with tanks is for the Russian Army. The Russian army isn’t in Moscow though.

(#) Prigozhin announces that he is standing down
Dmitri: Prigozhin says it's over:

"They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood may spill. That’s why, understanding the responsibility for spilling Russian blood on one of the sides, we are turning back our convoys and going back to field camps according to the plan."

Audio: https://t.co/bkjoDaZr8Z

(#)
Eliot Higgins: This is like living through the last season of Game of Thrones.

(#) Still immensity hilarious that Wagner forces managed a near unopposed road march of over 800km in 18 hours, nearly reaching Moscow, downing multiple Russian helicopters and an extremely valuable fixed wing platform, all while only losing a single truck in the process.

(#) Not sure if Prigozhin is actually going to get what he wants in the deal, but Putin’s position (and arguably the entire Russian government) has absolutely been weakened.

(#) Not a Russia analyst, so I’m not going to make any long term predictions, but Putin called Prigozhin a traitor only a few hours ago, and said those responsible for the coup would face justice. Now presumably Prigozhin walks away with his wishes, including what should be effective Wagner immunity and a major shakeup in the Russian MOD.

(#) I’ll leave at this before I finally get some sleep, Prigozhin probably cashed out at his strongest point. I’m not exactly sure what Wagner would have done once they reached Moscow, but the chances of actually capturing any significant Russian leadership was basically zero.

(#) Scenes of Wagner’s departure from Rostov.

(#) Prigozhin apparently stopped to greet people as he was leaving the city

​(#) Great thread from my colleague (who is an actual Russia expert) on the current situation and future ramifications.
Samuel Bendett: 1/ A few quick thoughts about Prigozhin's seemingly momentous "March of 10,000" that was stopped today. These are very preliminary thoughts, and much can change in the coming days as this situation settles down one way or another. nytimes.com/live/2023/06/2…

(#) Definitely something indicative about the general Russian populace’s feelings for the Russian government and especially the MOD/Army as the people of Rostov cheer and celebrate Wagner as they leave.

(#) And just a reminder, Wagner managed to down 7 Russian aircraft today.
OSINTtechnical: Fighterbomber reports that Russian forces have lost 6 helicopters (3x Mi-8mtpr, 1x Mi-8, 1x Ka-52, 1x Mi-35) and 1 fixed wing asset (IL-22M) so far today.

t.me/fighter_bomber…

(#) Wagner, and especially Prigozhin, agree with the invasion, they object to the way that the Russian Army (more specifically senior leadership) handled it. Their view is compatible with most of the pro-war base in Russia. The big change over the last 24 hours is that they objected to Putin as well.

(#) Switching back to eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian counterbattery fire continues to be extremely effective.

In the center of Donetsk city, Ukrainian forces from the 110th Mechanized Brigade hit a trio of Russian Bm-21 Grads with drone-spotted counterbattery fire.

(#) And another strike on a lone Grad in Zemlianky