QCP Asia Colour – 22 Oct 2025

All Eyes on CPI

Markets are treading water as the US government shutdown freezes most official data. The only print that matters this week is Friday’s CPI, the sole release the Fed will see before policy rhetoric resumes.

A 0.2% CPI could re-anchor the soft-landing narrative and support BTC’s upside skew. Meanwhile, gold saw its biggest one-day drop since 2020 as the USD firmed, while BTC briefly spiked to $114k before easing lower.

Tension headlines linger, but Xi–Trump deal talk offers a potential offset.

Will Friday’s CPI reignite the soft-landing trade?

Read the full colour here.

QCP Asia Colour – 27 October 2025

All Eyes on Trump, Xi and the Fed

Crypto staged a modest recovery after constructive US–China trade talks, paving the way for a potential agreement at Thursday’s Trump–Xi meeting. Markets appear to be watching that outcome more closely than Wednesday’s Fed decision, where any sign of ending quantitative tightening early could lend support to risk assets.

BTC remains flat on the month, with Big Tech earnings and the ongoing US data blackout keeping sentiment cautious. A weak equity showing could still break Uptober’s seven-year green streak.

The government shutdown, now in its 26th day, is the second longest in US history and has left the Fed effectively flying blind. BTC and ETH skews have turned neutral, but a move above 116k remains the hurdle for any sustained bullish resumption.

Will Uptober’s streak hold through this week’s triple test from Trump, Xi and the Fed?

Read the full colour here.

QCP Asia Colour – 29 October 2025

FOMC tonight: a cut without conviction. The Fed is set for a 25bp move amid a data blackout, leaving Powell little room for new guidance. Trade tensions linger, though Trump-Xi ties show signs of repair ahead of their meeting.

AI remains the market’s obsession, fueling gains across chipmakers and data centers even as bubble comparisons grow louder. But crypto lags behind, still nursing losses from the October flash crash. With DATs trading below 1 MNAV, could stock buybacks trigger fresh selling?

Read the full colour here.

QCP Asia Colour – 3 November 2025

OG Profit-Taking Weighs on BTC

BTC started November weak, dropping from 110k to 107k as OG holders continued moving coins to exchanges. The data points to sustained legacy selling, likely behind BTC’s first red October since 2018.

Despite subdued leverage and flat funding, BTC remains remarkably resilient, absorbing over 400k BTC in supply without breaching 100k.

Is this the start of a crypto winter, or just the calm before the next leg up?

Read the full colour here.

QCP Asia Colour – 5 November 2025

BTC at the Line in the Sand

Bitcoin slid to test the critical $100k support overnight, dragged lower by a firmer dollar and renewed Fed uncertainty. Outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have flipped from tailwind to headwind, with four straight sessions of ~$1.3bn redemptions adding to pressure.

Forced liquidations topped $1bn at the lows, while dealer short-gamma positioning amplified volatility. The $100k level now defines the market’s next move — will stabilizing ETF flows be enough to turn sentiment around?

Read the full colour here.

QCP Asia Colour – 10 November 2025

Shutdown optimism lifts BTC

BTC reclaimed $106k after several failed breaks below $100k, buoyed by optimism over the U.S. government funding deal. This recovery came despite continued OG selling and persistent ETF outflows.

Options flows remain mixed — Call Fly buyers suggest optimism, while Call Spread sellers cap expectations for new highs this year. Still, BTC’s ability to absorb OG supply pressure mirrors past cycles like Silk Road and Mt. Gox, reflecting stronger market depth today.

While DAT activity has slowed, their influence on sentiment remains critical. BTC’s firm defense of $100k has given treasuries breathing room, but rallies above $118k could attract renewed OG selling.

Will BTC’s resilience above $100k mark the start of a broader recovery?

Read the full colour here.

QCP Asia Colour – 12 November 2025

Will the US shutdown finally end this week?

BTC held steady around 103k in Asia after a volatile US session, as the Senate approved a stopgap bill to reopen the government through Jan 30. Polymarket now sees a 96% chance the shutdown ends by mid-Nov.

Meanwhile, ADP and NFIB data hint at a softening labour market, keeping the Fed on an “easing with caution” path ahead of the Dec FOMC.

With tariff tensions and credit volatility still in play, expect choppy markets through Q4, but potential Fed cuts and solid earnings could keep BTC and risk assets supported into 2026.

Read the full colour here.

QCP Asia Colour – 17 November 2025

Bottom in or end of cycle?

BTC has erased nearly all of this year’s gains, dropping 27% from its highs and closing below $100k for the first time since May. With the 50-week MA now broken and sentiment turning sharply bearish, all eyes are on the 92k support and 88k CME gap for signs of a short-term bounce.

Macro headwinds remain strong as the U.S. government reopens and long-delayed data hits the wires this week. Expect volatility to stay elevated with BTC implied vols above 50 and skew heavily tilted toward Puts.

Is this a cycle reset or just the final shakeout before recovery?

Read the full colour here.

QCP Asia Colour – 19 November 2025

BTC dips below 90K: short-term flush or deeper risk-off?

Bitcoin briefly broke below 90K this week as firmer rate expectations and persistent ETF outflows weighed on sentiment. The move highlights how sensitive BTC has become to shifts in macro tone and liquidity conditions.

Markets have sharply repriced Fed expectations, cutting December rate cut odds from “near certain” to “even.” Equities, supported by strong AI-driven earnings from hyperscalers, have held up better—leaving crypto lagging behind.

With key labour and growth data resuming post-shutdown, investors are watching to see if this is a positioning shakeout or the start of broader risk aversion.

Read the full colour here.

QCP Weekly Wrap: Exclusive to Newsletter Subscribers

Bitcoin’s slide deepened this week, erasing its yearly gains and breaking the 50-week moving average. The charts and macro backdrop have turned more cautious, as firmer rate expectations and persistent ETF outflows weigh on sentiment.

Our Weekly Wrap distills the week’s key moves, what’s driving them, and what to watch next. Delivered every Friday evening, it’s your concise guide to understanding where crypto markets stand and where they might go next.

This week’s edition breaks down:
• How BTC’s decline has shifted the medium-term structure
• Why macro data is keeping “higher-for-longer” alive
• The key levels and catalysts to watch into next week

Stay ahead of the market. Subscribe to the newsletter here.

QCP Asia Colour – 24 November 2025

Has BTC finally found its footing?

After a brutal 30% slide, BTC is showing early signs of recovery as dovish Fed comments lift December rate-cut expectations to 75%. Liquidity tides may be turning — but can this bounce hold?

Derivatives positioning suggests traders aren’t giving up on upside. Year-end call open interest still outweighs puts, with top strikes at 85k, 120k, 130k, 140k, and even 200k. Meanwhile, negative funding rates hint that long leverage has been flushed out, reducing downside risk.

But is this the start of a new trend or just another weekend head fake? With key US data (Retail Sales, Core PCE) due this week and BTC ETF flows turning tentatively positive, the next few days could be pivotal.

Read our full colour here.

QCP Asia Colour – 27 November 2025

BTC steadies… but pressure is building

BTC is holding in the high 80ks as risk sentiment improves and markets lift December rate-cut odds to 85%. But macro signals remain mixed, with inflation still elevated and labour data softening ahead of jobless claims and ADP later this week.

AI credit is flashing caution, with widening CDS and concerns over Nvidia’s rising receivables and inventories. Crypto flows tell a similar story: ETFs continue to see outflows and most products trade below 1 mNAV. Strategy is back under scrutiny as its BTC stack nears break-even and its stock lands on MSCI’s delisting watchlist.

Into year-end, BTC faces heavy downside hedging but still meaningful call OI. We see supply capping moves toward the mid-90ks, while 80–82k remains the key support zone.

Could this stability hold, or is another move brewing?

Read the full colour here.

QCP Asia Colour – 1 December 2025

Why did BTC drop despite bullish macro tailwinds?

BTC opened December under pressure, sliding from 91k to 86k in early Asia hours and wiping out last week’s gains. Two catalysts drove the move:

• Asia macro shocks. Hawkish BOJ comments pushed Japan rate hike odds to 76% and China’s non-manufacturing PMI contracted for the first time in almost three years. Markets are questioning whether global liquidity is truly easing.
• Strategy headlines. CEO Phong Le warned the firm could sell BTC if its stock trades below NAV and funding dries up. This sparked panic, triggering liquidations ahead of Nasdaq’s 12 December index review.

All this contrasts sharply with a supportive backdrop. QT ends today, rate cut odds for December hit 87%, Hassett is 66% likely to be the next Fed Chair, and spot ETF flows have flipped back into net inflows.

BTC had already rebounded 15% off the 81k lows, so a pullback was likely. The key question now: can BTC defend its prior lows as liquidity shifts and Strategy related flows dominate sentiment?

Read the full colour here.

QCP Asia Colour – 3 December 2025

BTC Holds in the 90s While Investors Brace for FOMC

BTC is steady in the mid 90s after a 5% rebound from the 86k lows, while markets sit in wait ahead of a politically charged FOMC next week.

Betting markets now price 85% odds that Kevin Hassett becomes the next Fed Chair, with a rare sequence of leadership changes set to tilt the FOMC more dovish. Futures still point to a 90% chance of a 25bp cut.

Strategy’s 1.4bn dollar equity raise has eased immediate fears, lifting mNAV back to around 1.14, though the 15 January MSCI review remains a key risk.

Is this calm the start of a reset or just the pause before the next move? Read the full colour here.

🎬 In Case You Missed It: Melvin Deng, CEO of QCP on Bloomberg TV

Melvin Deng, our CEO, spoke with Bloomberg today about the BTC rebound, the liquidations that drove price action in recent days, where we are seeing opportunities on the ground, and the key triggers that could shift the crypto landscape in 2026.

Watch it now.

QCP Asia Colour – 8 December 2025

BTC Whipsaws as Liquidity Falls to Year-End Lows

BTC swung between 88k and 92k on Sunday, with ETH jumping from 2,910 to 3,150 as thinning liquidity made markets highly sensitive to even small flows. Despite the sharp moves, liquidations remained modest, reflecting how positioning and participation have continued to decline through the quarter. Perp OI for both majors is now down 40–50% from October highs as retail interest collapses back to bear-market levels.

Beneath the quiet surface, supply is tightening. Around 25,000 BTC has been withdrawn from exchanges over the past two weeks, pushing ETF and corporate holdings above exchange balances for the first time. ETH is following the same trajectory, with exchange reserves at decade lows, indicating accumulation even as retail interest fades.

Attention now turns to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. A 25bp cut is expected, but balance-sheet guidance will determine how risk assets trade into year-end. With BTC still trapped between 84k and 100k and market depth deteriorating, a clean break on either side could define the next major trend as holiday liquidity thins further.

Read the full colour here:
https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/asia-colour-179/

QCP Asia Colour – 10 December 2025

Markets Stabilise but Caution Dominates

BTC holds near 92k this morning as selling pressure finally cools, though sentiment remains cautious. ETF inflows improved slightly to 56.5M USD after heavy November redemptions, and derivatives markets continue to show hesitation, keeping crypto in a clear holding pattern.

Focus now shifts to tonight’s FOMC. The decision is largely priced, but Powell’s tone will dictate near-term risk appetite, especially with limited new data and key releases still ahead. Markets continue to embed expectations of a more dovish 2026 policy path despite the uncertainty.

Attention then turns to Japan. The 19 December BOJ meeting has become the next major catalyst as JGB yields reach multi-decade highs and officials express discomfort with the speed of the move. With USDJPY carry positioning stretched, any policy surprise could trigger broader volatility.

For crypto, stability masks underlying fragility. BTC is essentially flat on the year, trading in a tight 90k–93k band despite earlier swings. After peaking above 123k in mid-2025, it now sits slightly lower YTD, with corporate-treasury demand providing steady support.

Read the full colour here.

QCP Asia Colour – 18 December 2025

Markets End 2025 on a Knife Edge

Markets are closing the year with a fragile balance between confidence and caution. The Fed delivered a hawkish-tilted cut with a dovish undertone, signaling support for the labor market while keeping inflation firmly in focus. The dot plot points to a flatter rate path, with markets now pricing around 2.3 cuts over the next year.

Equities remain the key macro swing factor. Capital continues to pour into AI infrastructure, but monetization is lagging. If revenues fail to catch up with investment, the risk extends beyond AI toward a broader equity re-rating in 2026.

Crypto remains under pressure as MSCI reviews index eligibility for digital-asset treasury firms. Potential passive outflows of up to USD 2.8 billion could add strain to an already fragile market, even as regulatory developments in Japan turn incrementally more constructive.

Markets are holding together for now. But is resilience masking a thinner margin for error as we head into 2026?

Read the full colour here.

QCP US Colour, 23 December 2025

All I Want for Christmas Is Liquidity

BTC remains range-bound into Christmas as liquidity thins and traders de-risk ahead of year-end. Perpetual open interest has fallen sharply, with BTC and ETH OI declining by roughly $3bn and $2bn respectively, reducing leverage but leaving markets more vulnerable to outsized moves in either direction.

This vulnerability is heightened by Friday’s record Boxing Day options expiry, which represents over 50% of Deribit’s total open interest. While downside positioning has eased, with open interest in 85k Puts drifting lower, the persistence of 100k Calls suggests residual, if tentative, optimism for a Santa rally. Risk reversals have also softened, pointing to easing bearish sentiment as spot consolidates.

Beyond options, tax-loss harvesting ahead of 31 December could add to short-term volatility, particularly in thin markets. That said, holiday-driven moves have historically tended to mean-revert, with price action often fading as liquidity returns in January. Absent a decisive break, crypto is likely to remain range-bound into year-end.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/us-colour-2/

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During routine monitoring, we identified brand impersonation involving messaging accounts and an unofficial website, which has since been taken down. There is no impact to QCP’s systems or operations, but please note that QCP will never request transactions, credentials, or sensitive information via unofficial websites, social platforms, or unsolicited messages.

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Thank you for helping us maintain a secure and trusted operating environment.

QCP Asia Colour, 29 December 2025

New Year, Old Range

BTC rose around 2.6% in early Asia, but holiday-thin liquidity continues to distort price action. With less than $40m in long liquidations, the move appears driven by spot and perpetual buying rather than forced covering, potentially supported by renewed corporate demand.

Post-expiry positioning has shifted. BTC perpetual funding on Deribit has jumped above 30%, signalling dealers are now short gamma to the upside. This dynamic was evident as spot pushed through 90k, triggering hedging flows into perpetuals and near-dated calls. A sustained move above 94k could amplify this effect.

Downside hedging has eased after the December 85k Put was not rolled, but with open interest down roughly 50% post-expiry, conviction remains limited. Capital is sidelined, and direction likely waits for liquidity to return.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/asia-colour-182/