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Forwarded from The Horse Hangout

We’re sitting down here chopping in the 80s and there’s not a lot to do besides watch and think, but I keep coming back to one thing. How likely is it that Bitcoin comes this close to Saylor’s cost basis and does not test it.

If you strip away the hype, strip away the doom, and just look at how markets behave, it feels way more normal that we trade through that level than we just politely bounce before it. Markets do not respect famous levels just because everyone can point at them. A lot of the time the opposite happens. The more public something is, the more it becomes a target.

This is one of the most public levels in all of crypto. Everyone knows the number. Everyone talks about it. People anchor to it. People build narratives around it. That’s exactly why it becomes a magnet. Not because it is some magical support, but because it is where the most emotion lives, and where the most orders tend to cluster.

And if you think about how people actually place stops, nobody puts their stop right on the number. They put it just under it. Because they do not want to be the guy holding spot while the biggest bull in the world goes “underwater.” So you end up with a ton of stop loss orders sitting just below the level. That’s liquidity. That’s fuel. That’s the thing a market loves to go grab when it wants to actually turn.

In markets that can be pushed around, there is also incentive to mess with public positioning. If someone is loud, public, and well advertised, the market has a way of testing that. Not because there is some conspiracy, but because the game is about getting other people to do dumb things at predictable moments. Big players want follow on behavior. Retail chases, gets scared, hits stops, sells in a hurry. Then the other side gets filled. This is how it works everywhere, not just in crypto.

The “Saylor number” is also perfect because it is not just a chart level. It is a psychological level. If Bitcoin trades through it, even for a moment, the entire vibe changes. The narrative flips. The headlines get aggressive. People start saying the same tired stuff again, Saylor bought the top, MSTR is doomed, it is all over. None of that has to be true for it to be effective.

And MSTR matters here because it is already acting like the market expects more pain. MSTR is a levered proxy. When Bitcoin is soft, MSTR usually gets hit harder. But the fact it is getting hit this hard while BTC is still above that cost basis tells you what equity people are thinking. Equities de risk faster than crypto natives. When the stock starts to trade poorly, it feeds the fear loop. The story goes from “levered genius” to “solvency risk” talk. Even if that is technically sloppy, it is what the crowd latches onto.

That reflexivity is the real part to watch. When MSTR is flying, the whole “infinite money glitch” narrative is alive. Stock stays strong, they can raise, they can buy more, everyone claps. When MSTR is bleeding, that loop gets questioned. If the market smells that the bid is weaker, people start to ask who steps in. And when that question starts spreading, you can get that last flush.

This is why I think we trade through it. Not because I think Bitcoin is collapsing, and not because I think Saylor is wrong. I just think markets like to test the obvious thing. They like to force the maximum discomfort first. They like to take the loudest, cleanest, most widely watched level and run it, so they can shake out the weak hands, clear leverage, and reset positioning.

Bottoms are not usally polite. They are usually one dirty moment. One wick, one panic candle, one day where everyone posts doom, everyone swears they are done, and the market quietly builds a base while people are still emotional.

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