Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have been dropping fast while price holds the $80K–$90K range

Is this the scarcity narrative in real time? Maybe. Price may look flat, but there's less BTC on exchanges. Supply is still a mountain though, it decreasing won't send it on its own

source: @cryptoquant_com

Many choose to launch their tokens with a small circulating supply and a high FDV to avoid early sell pressure and inflation.

But does it actually work?

We analyzed 16 recent token launches that followed the Low Float / High FDV model to understand how this setup impacts price performance over time.

The results show that it doesn’t consistently lead to strong or sustainable performance.

Read the full breakdown, data, and recommendations from the Simplicity Group research team:

https://x.com/SimplicityWeb3/status/1907749603325190611

One of our clients miscalculated slightly.

Instead of $7.7M in revenue per year, they actually were going to make $770k.

Their detailed financials had a slight error - 0.3% transaction fee was denominated as 0.03 instead of 0.003.

Had we not noticed this, the token would have launched with an inflated valuation, nearly 10x above what their buybacks could sustainably support.

We stepped in to:

- Drop the FDV
- Redesign the token emissions
- Reallocate fundraise spend

This is why a good token economist will read every single document the project may have.

RED, the token powering modular oracle infrastructure RedStone, was launched on Binance in February

The circulating supply sits at 24.2%, and while they have an allocation of 51.7% for insiders (investors and team), it's still subject to a 1-year cliff period

🚫 Phrases that recently got banned by our marketing team

(aka the cringe pile we’ll never let near your deck)

"[Random startup] is reimagining the future of Web3"

"...revolutionizing the way you interact with crypto and blockchain!"

"Combining cutting-edge technology with unparalleled expertise"

"At the forefront of the crypto revolution"

"Unlocking real-world investment opportunities"

"Join us today and be part of the future"

"Empowering users through decentralization"

"Seamlessly bridging Web2 and Web3"

"Redefining the [insert industry] landscape"

"Harnessing the power of AI and blockchain"

"Pioneering the next evolution of digital finance"

"Unleashing the potential of the decentralized economy"

"The next-generation platform for..."

"Making Web3 accessible for everyone"

The list goes on infinitely

One of the biggest liquidation events recently hit $ACT

ACT saw $5.28M in long liquidations in one hour, one of the biggest liquidation events

Price collapsed from ~$0.19 to below $0.09 (-52%) shortly after. Here's what the data shows (no speculation, just facts)

Let’s look at ACT. Here’s what the liquidation overview tells us:

In just 1 hour, $ACT saw:

• $5.82M in long liquidations
• $571K in short liquidations
This is a 10:1 Long-to-Short ratio It shows how one-sided the market was before it collapsed

Where did it hit hardest?

• Binance: $3.89M longs liquidated
• Bybit: $785K
• Gate.io: $440K Together, those 3 made up over 85% of total long liquidations, but Binance alone was 67% of it

Liquidations peaked around $0.189, and a whale was liquidated at $0.1877

After that candle? Price dropped over 50%, collapsing below $0.09

💡 VC insight from our latest X spaces worth repeating:

If you can grow a community and get users in a bear market, you're in a strong position. Because when the market sentiment improves, that early traction will multiply, and your audience or user base will be much bigger.

Traction when it’s hard matters, not just when the market’s hot.

Founders who can prove that are a big green flag for investors.

The pump.fun graduation rate has been in freefall since Nov 2024. Less than 1% of tokens now make it

After peaking in Nov 2024, the graduation rate has dropped ~56%. Peak was 1.67%. It’s now 0.74%

Doesn't seem to be short-term, but sustained weekly rate drops

Canton network: the blockchain wall street actually wants

While most smart contract platforms chase retail hype, Canton quietly built something for the institutions that matter.

Their new whitepaper outlines a “network of networks”, combining decentralization with privacy, scalability, and governance flexibility.

From hierarchical smart contracts and app-specific scaling, to a minting model tied to real usage, Canton is built for the future of regulated finance.

Here’s a breakdown of what makes Canton one of the most under-the-radar but institutionally significant blockchain infrastructures to date👇

https://x.com/SimplicityWeb3/status/1909532794977386726

Tune in to hear Simplicity Group’s insights on The Founders Show #37: Demystifying RWA, hosted by YAY Network

🕒 3 PM UTC today

Set a reminder: https://x.com/yaynetwork/status/1909935661831909693

One of our clients sent this to the VC that introduced them to us. We always take pride in our work, and messages like these keep our spirits high in the lowest of markets.

Message us if you want your tokenomics audited.

March crypto fundraising saw $5B+, the highest monthly total since June 2022

Interestingly, despite the surge in capital, the number of deals was lower than February, from 145 to 137

Selective investors? No. $3.5B came from just 2 deals:

• Binance ($2B)
• NinjaTrader ($1.5B)

According to data from the VC Printer dashboard (June), the median VC unrealized ROI is just 3x.

A sharp drop from 563x in the last cycle.

What’s going on?

We’ve seen projects launch at $1B valuations and now sit at $50M - without shipping anything meaningful. Meanwhile, teams and early investors already made bank by selling tokens OTC and padding their treasuries.

This is where trust breaks:
When the team profits first, before a product, before users, before value.

The most common mistake founders make?
They catch FOMO on their own project.

Instead of hyping how it’s “the best product ever” or shilling the token, focus on two things:

1️⃣ Prove you can execute in any market. Bull or bear, traction matters. Most founders disappear when things get tough.

2️⃣ Focus on product over token. There are 11M+ tokens on CoinMarketCap - no one cares unless there’s real utility.

But not everyone agrees.

Some say it’s 50% product, 50% marketing.

Right now, investors do look at how well a founder can sell the token and build mindshare.

As institutional capital comes in, product-market fit will matter more - but valuations need to reflect that.

Full VC alpha here:
https://x.com/SimplicityWeb3/status/1907448382982877396

Crypto Funding in March saw 138 rounds in total. a16z joined 11 of the deals, and led 2 of them

But when it comes to leading rounds, DragonFly Capital led 4 of its 6 deals, the highest leading ratio

Most VCs didn’t lead. They just followed Being active is easy. Leading isn’t.

Source: CryptoRank

Tokens as a growth hack vs. tokens as a sustainable value layer

One of the most formidable challenges faced by new businesses is acquiring users.

In Web3, tokens offer a powerful and relatively “free” way to bootstrap early traction and network effects. With the right strategy, a new player can challenge even the biggest incumbents.

Look at Blur vs. Opensea. Blur used a smart airdrop campaign to pull users from Opensea, rapidly gaining market share. Opensea, without a native token, had no way to compete on the same level, and Blur won that round.

But this playbook only works if your product is actually better.

Blur delivered. Most don’t.

Many teams throw tokens at users, hoping for adoption, but end up with worthless coins, failed experiments, and burned treasuries.

If you’re using your token as bait, not a long-term value layer, you’re on a timer.

Fundraising is only the beginning. If you’re not using those funds to make smart, strategic decisions, statistically speaking, you’re setting your project up to fail.

Read more: https://www.simplicitygroup.xyz/blog/how-to-research-tokens-as-retail

$TRUMP has a huge unlock coming.

Currently there's 200M circulating, with an extra 40M unlocked on 18th April - valued at current prices at $320M.

This 40M and all remaining unvested tokens - in total 80% of the supply - are owned by CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC - both entities owned by Trump.

Since its a memecoin slow rug, these tokens are going to be dumped.

There is substantial liquidity in the market - around $30-40M on DEXs, probably double that on CEXs. But it's nowhere near enough able to absorb $320M worth of selling from this unlock and the $Bns subsequent unlocks.

Selling will be slow and via the MM, unless the morons full clip and nuke the chart in one 🥴

Mantra collapses. Down to $2.4Bn FDV in 30 minutes. The crypto market never fails to be anything but entertaining.

happy Monday

time to work on your tokenomics so your token can survive longer than your last relationship

https://calendly.com/enquiries-simplicity/tokenomics

Alex, our co-founder & COO, breaks down one of the most misunderstood plays in crypto:

"High FDV Extract Game" is not about listing at high valuations and exiting onto retail.

It's about pumping the valuations to exit OTC.

Watch now, and don’t beg for more exciting alpha videos. Alex is busy cooking up elite tokenomics for our clients.

Gunzilla built a AAA Web3 game with $100M+ raised and industry veterans behind it, yet the price is down by ~50% since launch

What’s the issue? Tokenomics

A 37.8% investor allocation, just 10% for players. This is what happens when you build a great game but forget your users

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Research is coming soon