We run this type of modeling for all our clients before launch


Founders keep overestimating buy pressure, assuming users will magically absorb their emissions, and then act surprised when price collapses. But the math never lied - it just wasn’t modeled.

In this video, Alex breaks down exactly:

Why your token price goes down,

How much you actually earn when selling tokens,

Why liquidity matters more than market cap,

How most FDVs are completely disconnected from reality,

And more.


If you're gearing up for a launch or wondering why your token is not doing well, this is the one you need to watch:

https://youtu.be/qCan7zUcNQ4?si=XHnVtC4b3oTDTjEs

Many founders assume failed TGEs are the result of weak tokenomics or poor marketing.

In reality, the biggest risks to your token happen long before launch.

If you’re preparing to go live, this advice is worth your time

Our co-founder Alex Fatuliaj joined Web3 TV at Coinvesting to talk about how to launch successfully and build sustainable value with your token.

Watch this - it might save you from some costly mistakes.

Binance Alpha for your token launch? You might want to read this first.


- Binance Alpha often requires 4-10% of a token’s supply upfront, which floods the market right at launch.

- Some projects pay six figures to get featured, and later struggle with volatility and weak long-term holding.

- Tokens like Privasea had huge early gains, but most of those gains didn’t last.


If you’re considering Binance Alpha, read our article to understand how it works before jumping in:

https://x.com/SimplicityWeb3/status/1932038096398266503

CEX or DEX? It’s math.


Do you have the liquidity to list on a CEX and not instantly die under your own market cap? No? Stay on DEX.

CEXs will take your money, list your token, give you a banner, and then delist you three months later when it dips 40%.

But if you’re ready, you’ll get volume, marketing, legitimacy.

DEXs are cheaper and safer. But you need to know how to handle your own liquidity and user flow.

What happens when you sell just 1% of your token supply?

Watch the token price drop nearly 20%, even with deep liquidity.

At 5%? You’re down 56%.

This is why token design matters.


🎥 Alex breaks it down in under 70 seconds.

Bubblemaps is a textbook example of how capital quality isn’t everything, and execution still matters more.

They didn’t secure any Tier 1 funds, only a few Tier 2-4 names. The bulk of their cap table came from lower-tier investors, which usually signals a rougher launch: smaller networks, less market-making support, less exchange leverage.

But they flipped the noscript.

They got traction not because of investor prestige, but because they understood distribution.


The full playbook with metrics, analysis, and takeaways is coming soon in our TGE research.

FDV means nothing without liquidity.

Drop liquidity to $1M, sell 5% of supply — price crashes 93%.

Watch Alex explain.

Big congrats to our client World of Dypians 👏

Castrum Capital just doubled down on their investment, a strong vote of confidence in WoD’s post-TGE performance, long-term vision, and dominance in the BNB Chain ecosystem.

They’re also crushing it on the adoption side:

#1 featured dApp on Trust Wallet
Leading the Top Web3 Games of 2025 by active players
#2 most used BNB Chain app overall

Proud to work with such projects and help them level up their game.

Let’s look at Derive.

Less than 5 months post-launch, 79.2% of their supply is already circulating.
That’s not normal, but there’s a reason.

Derive is a rebrand from Lyra, a project that had already launched a token back in 2021. Most of the new DRV tokens were used for a 1:1 migration, and that’s where the problem starts.

71.1% of the supply was unlocked at TGE.

The Airdrop, Circulating & Vested, and Market Maker allocations were all liquid on day one. That’s 690M DRV dumped into the market immediately.

Since LYRA had been performing terribly, most holders were probably just waiting to exit. And they did, fast.

Instead of using the rebrand to rethink supply dynamics, Derive simply carried over the broken model: same circulating ratio, misaligned incentives, same mistakes.


Full analysis coming soon in the TGE report.

DRV price.

Are you launching at a $100M FDV? well, good luck holding the price.

Drop it to $20M and suddenly you’re only down 20% instead of 50%.
Why?

See how the math plays out.

Super excited to announce our strategic advisory role with CLI.AI!

CLI is building permissionless cloud compute and infrastructure for AI and Web3.

We’re diving in to help build a sustainable future for $CMD:

🔹 Solana ecosystem growth through key intros across APAC and Balkan Superteams
🔹 Token flywheel design to help $CMD thrive long-term

Let’s get to work.

Most token launches still optimize for opening day optics.

We analyzed over 40 TGEs in 2025 and found this approach consistently underperforms.

Initial spikes rarely sustain, and when trading volume collapses post-launch, price usually follows.

The data is clear: volume retention after TGE is a leading indicator of resilience.

TGE research is coming soon

We advise because we know.

Simplicity Group a research-driven company led by people who actually understand markets.

Every service we offer is backed by macro and crypto analysis. We publish deep, honest reports to help the space grow, and we do it for free.


Here are a few of our earlier pieces that are worth your time:

– the dollar milkshake theory

– why crypto should embrace its gambling nature

– is inflation actually bad?

– the impact of market makers on crypto projects

– when will crypto grow up?


This is the same thinking we apply when designing economies, fixing token models, or preparing projects for launch.