Are you launching at a $100M FDV? well, good luck holding the price.

Drop it to $20M and suddenly you’re only down 20% instead of 50%.
Why?

See how the math plays out.

Super excited to announce our strategic advisory role with CLI.AI!

CLI is building permissionless cloud compute and infrastructure for AI and Web3.

We’re diving in to help build a sustainable future for $CMD:

🔹 Solana ecosystem growth through key intros across APAC and Balkan Superteams
🔹 Token flywheel design to help $CMD thrive long-term

Let’s get to work.

Most token launches still optimize for opening day optics.

We analyzed over 40 TGEs in 2025 and found this approach consistently underperforms.

Initial spikes rarely sustain, and when trading volume collapses post-launch, price usually follows.

The data is clear: volume retention after TGE is a leading indicator of resilience.

TGE research is coming soon

We advise because we know.

Simplicity Group a research-driven company led by people who actually understand markets.

Every service we offer is backed by macro and crypto analysis. We publish deep, honest reports to help the space grow, and we do it for free.


Here are a few of our earlier pieces that are worth your time:

– the dollar milkshake theory

– why crypto should embrace its gambling nature

– is inflation actually bad?

– the impact of market makers on crypto projects

– when will crypto grow up?


This is the same thinking we apply when designing economies, fixing token models, or preparing projects for launch.

During our TGE research process, we segmented tokens into quartiles based on how much trading volume remained one month post-TGE.

Only one group showed consistent positive performance: the top 25% by volume retention.

The rest saw stagnation or decline, regardless of initial hype.

We always tell our clients and the data proves it: liquidity is the only real sign of market confidence.

Full breakdown in the upcoming TGE report

Our client Autonom is integrating their RWA oracle with Adrena Protocol, currently the third-largest perpetuals DEX on Solana.

This integration makes Adrena the first perps DEX on Solana to offer equities and commodities futures, powered by Autonom’s oracle.

Testing kicks off at the end of June.
Congrats!

Proof of Stake has fundamental issues with decentralisation

1. Given that PoS requires validators to stake coins in order to validate, these coins need to exist before the chain can even go live. Sure, the team and investors that own these initial coins can sell them, or if they’re generous give them away, to the users, but that doesn’t stop a PoS chain from being completely centralised.

2. PoS networks are secured via their own product - the coin. Once someone reaches 51% of the total coin supply, they cannot be dethroned since the consensus mechanism favours those with more coins.

If this entity restakes its earnings, it will keep increasing its share of the total coin supply until it reaches 100% (as per the power-law distribution).

Read more in our research article

Here is one more sneak peek of our upcoming analysis of 40+ recent TGEs.

When we ran correlation tests, we clearly noticed that there’s no strong linear correlation between volume drop and price decline.

But when we looked at rank correlation, a pattern emerged: tokens with higher volume retention consistently ranked better in price performance.

It’s not about launch theatrics or one-time inflows. Sustained volume signals active participants, liquidity depth, and continuous market attention. All critical to price stability post-TGE.

If your tokenomics suck, it doesn’t matter how good your product is.

In this video, Alex is breaking down one of the trickiest parts of token design: fundraising tranches - seed, private, public, and everything in between.

There are 8 interlocking components. Change one, and the rest need to shift.

We walk through each of them with a specific example.
Watch now!

https://youtu.be/-BRrNtzZAJI?si=y9eRNGPTwQsym2Yz

How to have a good token launch - 50,000 data points, 40 top launches of 2025.

We went through all the data to give you the alpha no one in the industry has extracted yet. Some key findings:

🔹 Initial Circulating Supply has absolutely no correlation to token price

🔹 Social media KPIs need to be rethought. Likes, comments, retweets, and engagement have no direct correlation to price


This report gives a real benchmark for our clients and projects to understand what works and what doesn't.

If you’re building, investing, or advising, you must read this:
https://docsend.com/view/khn4nms2ehjjskv3

One of our partners created this legal crypto map (constantly updated). Select what you're looking for, and find the right jurisdiction. Pretty cool.

Message @Alex_Simplicity if you want an intro.

https://cryptomap.io/map/

➡️ Projects that raised $20M didn’t perform better than those that raised $2M.

➡️ Tokens with low launch market caps outperformed, and circulating supply % didn’t matter.

➡️ Only one social media engagement metric came close to predicting price.

We analysed 50,000 data points and 40 token launches from Q1 2025 to understand what actually drives short-term price performance and tested four common assumptions in the space.

Read now:
https://docsend.com/view/khn4nms2ehjjskv3

Does higher social engagement before or during launch lead to better token performance?

Short answer: No.


- Impressions, likes, replies, and reposts were all highly correlated with each other (obviously).

- But none of them showed any statistically significant link to 1-week price performance.

- In fact, higher likes and reposts around launch correlated negatively with returns.


The only signal we found:

Projects with more reposted tweets before the token went live tended to perform better at the 1-month mark.

📊 Full report

Data from our research in which we’ve carefully analyzed 40 tokenomics of projects launched indicates that team allocations are slightly higher than investor allocations in 2025, 18.9% vs 17.9%.

It’s 2025 and most of the projects acclaimed for decentralization are still allocating almost 40% on average for insiders.

Volume retention matters?

True. Tokens that maintained higher trading volume during the first month post-launch tended to perform better. The top 25% by volume retention showed the highest average and median price growth.

Read more

Low float doesn’t matter.
Low IMC - that’s what actually drives price.

We tested whether projects with lower circulating supply % or lower IMC performed better post-launch.

Here’s what the data showed:

📉 There was no statistical link between float % and price action.

📈 The cheaper the initial float (in $ terms), the stronger the returns.

So stop obsessing over how little you unlock.
Start thinking about how affordable your circulating supply actually is.

The full research:
https://docsend.com/view/khn4nms2ehjjskv3

Do tokens with a smaller launch size perform better?

What we found:

- Tokens that launched with a lower market cap (aka cheaper float) tended to go up more. This was true both at 1 week and 1 month after launch.

- It didn’t matter if you unlocked 3% or 30%, what mattered was how valuable that float was.

In this video, we run through an example of how you can tweak your tokenomics to achieve different goals, whether they are:

- Increasing your chances of closing a round
- Raising more money without dumping your chart
- Preventing massive sell pressure at TGE
- Reducing sell pressure over time

Our client World of Dypians has been featured in the latest Binance Research report! This is the 4th time it has happened in the last 9 months.

Happy to work with the best!

Explore the report: https://t.co/fk4FLyMbKx

Does raising more money mean better token performance?
No.

To test this, we analysed the total reported fundraising amounts for the 40 tokens and compared them against each project’s token performance 1 week and 1 month after token launch.

In short, our analysis and data suggest no significant statistical relationship between fundraising size and price returns. Raising more money doesn’t predict either better or worse returns either at the 1 week or 1 month mark.

Why your engagement drops right after TGE?

1. Spending money on likes, followers, and engagement (be that through bots, quests, or airdrops) is arguably futile

2. Holding back optimistic announcements until after you launch (engagement dies once the token is listed)

3. Overzealous content, constant call-to-actions, and oceans of random posts and memes

4. No product content, no announcements and progress.

Read more