➡️ Projects that raised $20M didn’t perform better than those that raised $2M.

➡️ Tokens with low launch market caps outperformed, and circulating supply % didn’t matter.

➡️ Only one social media engagement metric came close to predicting price.

We analysed 50,000 data points and 40 token launches from Q1 2025 to understand what actually drives short-term price performance and tested four common assumptions in the space.

Read now:
https://docsend.com/view/khn4nms2ehjjskv3

Does higher social engagement before or during launch lead to better token performance?

Short answer: No.


- Impressions, likes, replies, and reposts were all highly correlated with each other (obviously).

- But none of them showed any statistically significant link to 1-week price performance.

- In fact, higher likes and reposts around launch correlated negatively with returns.


The only signal we found:

Projects with more reposted tweets before the token went live tended to perform better at the 1-month mark.

📊 Full report

Data from our research in which we’ve carefully analyzed 40 tokenomics of projects launched indicates that team allocations are slightly higher than investor allocations in 2025, 18.9% vs 17.9%.

It’s 2025 and most of the projects acclaimed for decentralization are still allocating almost 40% on average for insiders.

Volume retention matters?

True. Tokens that maintained higher trading volume during the first month post-launch tended to perform better. The top 25% by volume retention showed the highest average and median price growth.

Read more

Low float doesn’t matter.
Low IMC - that’s what actually drives price.

We tested whether projects with lower circulating supply % or lower IMC performed better post-launch.

Here’s what the data showed:

📉 There was no statistical link between float % and price action.

📈 The cheaper the initial float (in $ terms), the stronger the returns.

So stop obsessing over how little you unlock.
Start thinking about how affordable your circulating supply actually is.

The full research:
https://docsend.com/view/khn4nms2ehjjskv3

Do tokens with a smaller launch size perform better?

What we found:

- Tokens that launched with a lower market cap (aka cheaper float) tended to go up more. This was true both at 1 week and 1 month after launch.

- It didn’t matter if you unlocked 3% or 30%, what mattered was how valuable that float was.

In this video, we run through an example of how you can tweak your tokenomics to achieve different goals, whether they are:

- Increasing your chances of closing a round
- Raising more money without dumping your chart
- Preventing massive sell pressure at TGE
- Reducing sell pressure over time

Our client World of Dypians has been featured in the latest Binance Research report! This is the 4th time it has happened in the last 9 months.

Happy to work with the best!

Explore the report: https://t.co/fk4FLyMbKx

Does raising more money mean better token performance?
No.

To test this, we analysed the total reported fundraising amounts for the 40 tokens and compared them against each project’s token performance 1 week and 1 month after token launch.

In short, our analysis and data suggest no significant statistical relationship between fundraising size and price returns. Raising more money doesn’t predict either better or worse returns either at the 1 week or 1 month mark.

Why your engagement drops right after TGE?

1. Spending money on likes, followers, and engagement (be that through bots, quests, or airdrops) is arguably futile

2. Holding back optimistic announcements until after you launch (engagement dies once the token is listed)

3. Overzealous content, constant call-to-actions, and oceans of random posts and memes

4. No product content, no announcements and progress.

Read more

Here we run through an example of why IMC matters more than people think. Typically, it's between 2-25% of FDV, but:

- Lower IMC → easier to pump, but it pumps to an unsustainable level and crashes back down

- Higher IMC → more sell pressure on launch

It’s a balancing act between hype and stability.

How did the most successful token launches use content, timing, tone, and messaging strategy effectively?

1. Strong content comes from strong products. Bubblemaps and Kaito products naturally generated content that people cared about.

2. Tone needs to match the product.
Elixir kept things dry and technical, and lost attention. Powerloom tried to go full meme-mode for a serious infra project and failed.

3. More posts ≠ more results.
Projects like GoPlus and SonicSVM posted often but had poor engagement. Nothing they shared gave people a reason to care.

Read the full analysis

Almost 2 out of 5 tokens go to insiders

Our research data shows that in 2025, “decentralized” projects are still handing out ~40% to teams and investors (18.9% to teams, 17.9% to investors on average).

Your raise gave you capital. We’ll help you turn it into value.

- Tokenomics audit
- Token Modelling
- Introductions
- Advisory
- Ecosystem expansion

Why Simplicity?

✔️ $1.8Bn FDV and $1.2Bn MC for projects we've worked with - Pyth, Superverse, WoD, etc.
✔️eOracle, Uprising, Portal to Bitcoin, Folks Finance, and many more gearing up for launch.
✔️ Research-first, data-driven approach
✔️ 120+ companies serviced
✔️ $160M+ raised by our clients

Need help or advice? Book a call or message @Alex_Simplicity

We loved this breakdown by the Head of Growth at Ten Protocol on why CT is completely off when it comes to token launches.

She pulled insights from our latest Token Launch Strategy Report, where we analysed 50,000+ data points across 40 token launches this year. The piece adds valuable context and a solid broader interpretation of how launches in 2025 should actually be done.

Read here

Why Equity and Token are not the same?

In crypto, we took SAFEs and turned them into SAFTs.

We took equity and started raising with tokens. But this came with legal troubles.

So, to bypass regulators, projects focus hard on ensuring their tokens are “utility tokens” instead of “security tokens”.
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But these tokens are needed to be utilised in the ecosystem: it’s similar to investors investing into Starbucks coffee beans instead of Starbucks Inc.
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Investors should exit their positions because the projects’ users need them to utilise the ecosystem...
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Equity and tokens might sound similar but they play by completely different rules.

👉 Dive into the full breakdown in our research article

Most people still don’t understand how token valuations kill launches.

In this 1-min clip, we explain exactly what a good valuation structure looks like 👇