Simplicity Group Alpha – Telegram
Simplicity Group Alpha
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Disclaimer:

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. The information in this channel is provided for education and informational purposes only, without any express or implied warranty of any kind.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SimplicityWeb3
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In 2025, projects that gave a large share of their token supply to the community (e.g. via airdrops, public sales, ecosystem incentives) performed much better after launch.

The top third of projects by community allocation (i.e. those that gave 47% or more of total supply to the community) delivered:

~120% return after 1 week

~350% after 1 month

~200% at the time of analysis


Meanwhile, projects that allocated only 30–47% to the community saw more volatility without consistently better returns.

So basically:
Give the community a lot, or don’t bother.

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Crypto VC funding in Q2 surpassed Q1 by 35% with 25% fewer rounds

From 441 to 330 rounds, and $7.4B to $10B raised in total

BTC hit ATH as Q3 just kicked off… How will funding in Q3 play out?
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Tokens that launch at a lower unit price (specifically, below $0.075) perform better across all timeframes, both short-term and long-term.

Why?

People tend to think a token priced at $0.01 has “more room to grow” than one priced at $1, even if the market caps are the same.

Full report:
https://docsend.com/view/47i874vknexnw5hm
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Why higher initial market caps = weaker token performance?

Here’s the math:
If your token launches with a $1M IMC, it’ll perform ~1.37% better than the same token launched at a $2.7M IMC.

So if you go from $1M to $10M IMC, your early performance could drop by ~4–5% purely because of launch size.

Every extra dollar of IMC adds friction to post-TGE performance.

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Don't over-optimize insider share, other than maybe for optics.

Our report showed that there is no clear correlation between higher or lower insider allocations and token price success.

Learn more
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Your ad copy needs to clearly say what the user gets, why it matters, and what they should do next.

Left example
What’s wrong with it?

- Doesn’t tell the user what you’re offering
- No reason to care
- No clear next step
- Could be literally any project

Right example
Why it works:

- Tells you what you get: staking rewards + early access
- Tells you why it matters: real yield + governance rights
- Tells you what to do next: stake now, and it’s easy

If you need quality ads for your project, dm @Alex_Simplicity
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Free Tokenomics Master Template 🌍

This is the exact tokenomics template we use at Simplicity Group to design the token economy for our clients.

This covers:

Allocations
Vesting schedules
Valuations
Emissions modelling
Investor ROI calculator
22 charts and graphs
V3 (and V2) Liquidity model
TGE Price impact simulations
Financials (PnL)
Equity valuations (for equity rounds)

Get it for free here: https://forms.gle/x1AcgBAabwhbj5XP8
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After building token models for 100+ teams, seeing firsthand what passes for “tokenomics” in this space (and the consequences that follow), we figured it was time to do something about it.

So we’re sharing the exact tokenomics template we use at Simplicity.

It’s the same structure that’s helped founders close $10M+ rounds, design emissions schedules, and pressure-test liquidity assumptions before launch.

Now we’re making it public. Because this space needs better token design and gatekeeping helps no one.

If you're designing your own token, or just want to understand what actually matters in supply-side mechanics, grab the template and check the walkthrough video.

Hope it helps. And if it saves you from one overpriced advisor call, even better 🌍



📍Watch the full video now:

https://youtu.be/RgGBxm7XSvY?si=HbJVqzQ3QdaBxrI3
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Don't confuse supply side 'tokenomics' with the full token economy, this is what (a fraction of) full economy design looks like.

Our template is purely for the supply side.
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Another serious milestone for our client MetaWealth! 🍾

Invited to speak at NASDAQ Trade Talks in New York, on a panel alongside Coinbase, Circle, and Credit Suisse.

Congrats to Darren and the team!
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Your content should match your team's personality

That's what we learned from the best-performing projects in 2025. If the founding team is serious, your Twitter should be serious. If you're degens, lean into it.

Walrus, despite being a heavy infrastructure project with $140M backing, leaned into humour authentically and saw its token jump 357% one month after TGE (still +192% since).

Hyperlane went the other way. Their posts avoided hype and stuck to matter-of-fact updates only, which aligned with their brand the most.

HYPER shot up by 533% in the first week post launch, evidencing that merely posting playful / high energy posts isn’t indicative of community perception of the project’s token.
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Why you shouldn't over-optimize token unlocks

Our research analyzed 40 token launches and tested this hypothesis.

Here’s what we found:

- No statistical relationship between how fast a token unlocks and its price performance.

- Whether a project unlocked more or less than the median, there was no significant difference in returns (p = 0.299).

- Even after removing outliers and using robust regression models, the effect remained statistically irrelevant.

Some fast-unlocking tokens performed better than slow ones but the difference was not reliable or consistent.

What does it mean?
Trying to micromanage unlock schedules for price control is largely pointless.

What drives price is what those tokens represent.

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Despite $13.5B burned since 2021, Ethereum’s supply is still growing at +0.8% per year

The pump and ETH burn has been great, but issuance continues.


ETH is up 40%+ the last month, crossing $3,600 (bullish)

Since 2021, Ethereum has burned 4.6M ETH worth ~$13.5B (extra bullish)

But here’s a core fact that most ignore and is why ETH supply is growing despite the burn:


Scarcity depends on network activity:

→ High fees = deflationary ETH

→ Low fees = supply grows

It’s dynamic, not fixed.


But network activity is high, why aren’t fees high too?

Because of:

→ Dencun upgrade (lowered L1 transaction fees)

→ L2 activity inherently shifting volume (and fees) off the mainnet

This is why ETH isn’t deflationary today, but was in periods of lower activity levels.


→ High activity = more fees burned = deflation

But also consider: high activity = more txns. processed = more validator rewards = more ETH issued


ETH supply growth depends on which side outweighs the other = why supply doesn't automatically shrink just with high activity
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