The Ukrainian Blackout is a Month of Strikes Away
1. Ukrainian energy infrastructure = Soviet infrastructure.
2. Despite its very average current condition, it remains a resilient system.
3. The Russian Army's strikes continue to be very sparing and gradual.
4. That is why b30%, as Zelensky stated recently, has been knocked out. Moreover, some of it has already been restored.
5. The strikes need to continue for weeks more to finally rid Ukraine of its "Russian and Soviet colonial legacy."
— Zapiski Mitchmana Ptichkina
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1. Ukrainian energy infrastructure = Soviet infrastructure.
2. Despite its very average current condition, it remains a resilient system.
3. The Russian Army's strikes continue to be very sparing and gradual.
4. That is why b30%, as Zelensky stated recently, has been knocked out. Moreover, some of it has already been restored.
5. The strikes need to continue for weeks more to finally rid Ukraine of its "Russian and Soviet colonial legacy."
— Zapiski Mitchmana Ptichkina
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Briefly on the front in the Svatovo-Kreminna area. Our troops are actively defending, occasionally counterattacking. Now only Ukrainian observers are sitting in Torskoye and Yampolovka; their main forces (quite large) are behind the reservoir.
Near the village of Makeevka, the Khokhol is trying to cross the river with the strength of 15-20 people every day. Soldiers of the 20th Combined Arms Army kill/disperse them, but the following day the Khokhol tries again and with the same result. Today the Khokhol tried to attack with aviation, one helicopter was shot down by our guys from the 752th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division, and two escaped back.
@vysokygovorit
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Near the village of Makeevka, the Khokhol is trying to cross the river with the strength of 15-20 people every day. Soldiers of the 20th Combined Arms Army kill/disperse them, but the following day the Khokhol tries again and with the same result. Today the Khokhol tried to attack with aviation, one helicopter was shot down by our guys from the 752th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division, and two escaped back.
@vysokygovorit
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Fighting Iranian drones is costing Ukraine more than they are worth - Guardian
Ukraine's Molfar has calculated that all the simple and cheap Iranian drones launched in a month, from September 13 to October 17, cost Russia no more than $18m.
Ukraine, on the other hand, spent more than $28 million to shoot down some of them.
Analysts have not calculated the damage from the drones hitting targets - only the cost of the drones themselves and the cost of shooting them down.
On Wednesday, the Ukrainian Air Force announced that the Ukrainians had allegedly shot down 223 Shahed-136s (Geranium 2) since the start of Iranian drone use, on September 13. But dozens of drones reached their targets.
⚠️They also failed to count the cost of a self-defeated Mi-29 fighter jet damaged by pieces of Geranium 😁
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Ukraine's Molfar has calculated that all the simple and cheap Iranian drones launched in a month, from September 13 to October 17, cost Russia no more than $18m.
Ukraine, on the other hand, spent more than $28 million to shoot down some of them.
Analysts have not calculated the damage from the drones hitting targets - only the cost of the drones themselves and the cost of shooting them down.
On Wednesday, the Ukrainian Air Force announced that the Ukrainians had allegedly shot down 223 Shahed-136s (Geranium 2) since the start of Iranian drone use, on September 13. But dozens of drones reached their targets.
⚠️They also failed to count the cost of a self-defeated Mi-29 fighter jet damaged by pieces of Geranium 😁
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Update on the Ukrainian power supply
The deputy head of the Ukrainian presidential office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, has said that electricity supplies across Ukraine will be restricted tomorrow.
According to him, from 7 a.m. to 11 p.m., it will be necessary to minimize the use of electricity. Also from tomorrow, the use of street lighting will be restricted in Ukrainian cities.
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The deputy head of the Ukrainian presidential office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, has said that electricity supplies across Ukraine will be restricted tomorrow.
According to him, from 7 a.m. to 11 p.m., it will be necessary to minimize the use of electricity. Also from tomorrow, the use of street lighting will be restricted in Ukrainian cities.
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Telegram Advertising is Hell in a Waste Bucket
I often marvel at the circus of Telegram advertising hell:
"The biggest battle in the history of the SMO has begun.
Girkin-Strelkov is conducting a broadcast, in which he has already eliminated two Nazis.
Russian aviation is up in the air, about 100 Iranian mopeds struck directly at AFU columns.
First footage: LINK"
SMHx100500
I often marvel at the circus of Telegram advertising hell:
"The biggest battle in the history of the SMO has begun.
Girkin-Strelkov is conducting a broadcast, in which he has already eliminated two Nazis.
Russian aviation is up in the air, about 100 Iranian mopeds struck directly at AFU columns.
First footage: LINK"
SMHx100500
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⚡️ A map of the defensive Wagner Line in Donbass has hit the media.
I'm pretty sure that this is bs because no normal human being would post this publicly. But hey, all for the views, right?
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I'm pretty sure that this is bs because no normal human being would post this publicly. But hey, all for the views, right?
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❗️Berislav Direction
The Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) reports from the front:
The enemy, without removing the bodies of their fallen (although there is an unspoken rule about taking out the dead), is consolidating manpower, and pulling up howitzer artillery. Reconnaissance is being massively conducted with drones.
According to our reconnaissance, 2,000 infantry have already been drawn to the front line.
Our boys are ready.
— Bumazhnaya Zmeya
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The Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) reports from the front:
The enemy, without removing the bodies of their fallen (although there is an unspoken rule about taking out the dead), is consolidating manpower, and pulling up howitzer artillery. Reconnaissance is being massively conducted with drones.
According to our reconnaissance, 2,000 infantry have already been drawn to the front line.
Our boys are ready.
— Bumazhnaya Zmeya
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We are ready and waiting.
We are ready and waiting.
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The DNR's 1st Slavic Brigade storms enemy positions near Avdeevka, Donetsk
Multiple rocket launchers are one of the most effective means of infantry support. In the Avdiivka direction, experienced artillerymen of the 1st "Slavyansk" brigade of the DNR People's Militia accurately hit the enemy's manpower, equipment, and fortifications, ensuring the advance of assault groups.
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Multiple rocket launchers are one of the most effective means of infantry support. In the Avdiivka direction, experienced artillerymen of the 1st "Slavyansk" brigade of the DNR People's Militia accurately hit the enemy's manpower, equipment, and fortifications, ensuring the advance of assault groups.
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Ukraine Fails in Assault Toward Novaya Kamenka-Sukhanovo
The following are the results of today's enemy offensive in the direction of Novaya Kamenka-Sukhanovo, which the enemy launched with two battalions reinforced with tanks, numbering about 50 armoured vehicles in total:
— The enemy suffered losses and retreated to the initial positions. The battle resulted in the destruction of more than 15 tanks and 10 MBMs, with the Russian Army capturing enemy equipment, tanks, and IFVs, as well as prisoners.
— Losses of enemy personnel are estimated at 200 (dead and wounded), and now the enemy is trying to organize their evacuation from the battlefield. What is remarkable is that the attack this time was not an assault, as before, but a systematic deployment into battle formation.
Nevertheless, we should not relax. We believe that the enemy will now engage in combat recovery (replenishing their suicide club) or attempt an offensive from other directions, because the instructions of the Washington grandfather must be obeyed (to the last Ukrainian).
— The Archangel of the Spetsnaz
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The following are the results of today's enemy offensive in the direction of Novaya Kamenka-Sukhanovo, which the enemy launched with two battalions reinforced with tanks, numbering about 50 armoured vehicles in total:
— The enemy suffered losses and retreated to the initial positions. The battle resulted in the destruction of more than 15 tanks and 10 MBMs, with the Russian Army capturing enemy equipment, tanks, and IFVs, as well as prisoners.
— Losses of enemy personnel are estimated at 200 (dead and wounded), and now the enemy is trying to organize their evacuation from the battlefield. What is remarkable is that the attack this time was not an assault, as before, but a systematic deployment into battle formation.
Nevertheless, we should not relax. We believe that the enemy will now engage in combat recovery (replenishing their suicide club) or attempt an offensive from other directions, because the instructions of the Washington grandfather must be obeyed (to the last Ukrainian).
— The Archangel of the Spetsnaz
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❗️ Urgent in Kherson direction
Artillerymen from the 42nd motorized rifle division report from near Davydov Brod:
"There is no withdrawal of artillery equipment to the left bank of the Dnieper! We are still standing near Davydov Brod, we have even improved our positions. Attempts at so-called "breakthroughs" by the Ukrainians end mostly with dead bodies on their side and burnt equipment.
But not always: for example, yesterday brothers from Airborne Troops with our support captured enemy armored vehicles. The motorized vehicles were urgently disassembled, and the parts went for urgent repair of one of our SAU's, which had been terrorizing the Ukrainian army for half a year already. Such things. We are standing firm, the mood is upbeat, and Victory will be ours!
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Artillerymen from the 42nd motorized rifle division report from near Davydov Brod:
"There is no withdrawal of artillery equipment to the left bank of the Dnieper! We are still standing near Davydov Brod, we have even improved our positions. Attempts at so-called "breakthroughs" by the Ukrainians end mostly with dead bodies on their side and burnt equipment.
But not always: for example, yesterday brothers from Airborne Troops with our support captured enemy armored vehicles. The motorized vehicles were urgently disassembled, and the parts went for urgent repair of one of our SAU's, which had been terrorizing the Ukrainian army for half a year already. Such things. We are standing firm, the mood is upbeat, and Victory will be ours!
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⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️ Explosions and shooting in Kiev
Ukrainian sources
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Ukrainian sources
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Seems those electricity restrictions will last longer. Enjoy the magic of Winter ❄️
Seems those electricity restrictions will last longer. Enjoy the magic of Winter ❄️
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Poland and Germany failed to agree on supplying Warsaw with German tanks instead of those transferred to Ukraine, Gazeta reports. pl
Poland has already donated over 200 T-72 tanks to Kiev but has yet to receive German Leopards to replenish resources.
Polish Deputy Defence Minister Marcin Osiyepa told Gazeta. pl, that talks with Berlin have been suspended. "The German offer that came to us was unsatisfactory: it concerned the transfer of a small number of tanks and was very time-consuming," the politician said.
Warsaw was unable to receive 40 tanks from Germany, with 14 Leopards and one Bergepanzer 3 Büffel rescue vehicle to be delivered to the Czech army.
Poland has been waiting for German Leopards for a long time, but the start of deliveries was postponed until spring 2023. Warsaw speaks of "deceptive maneuvers".
You don't say...
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Poland has already donated over 200 T-72 tanks to Kiev but has yet to receive German Leopards to replenish resources.
Polish Deputy Defence Minister Marcin Osiyepa told Gazeta. pl, that talks with Berlin have been suspended. "The German offer that came to us was unsatisfactory: it concerned the transfer of a small number of tanks and was very time-consuming," the politician said.
Warsaw was unable to receive 40 tanks from Germany, with 14 Leopards and one Bergepanzer 3 Büffel rescue vehicle to be delivered to the Czech army.
Poland has been waiting for German Leopards for a long time, but the start of deliveries was postponed until spring 2023. Warsaw speaks of "deceptive maneuvers".
You don't say...
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The destruction of an American M777 howitzer by the AFU in the Kharkiv region, which was shelling the Belgorod region, by servicemen of the 3rd Motorised Rifle Division.
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Ramzan Kadyrov has reported on the capture of a farm in a special military operation zone by fighters from Chechnya, which they have been unable to recapture from Ukrainian formations since 2014.
"It took only six Chechen fighters to take control of this point from the enemy," Kadyrov said.
I love that guy. Yes, he is a little bit overwhelming but troll of the A class. Congrats, anyway.
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"It took only six Chechen fighters to take control of this point from the enemy," Kadyrov said.
I love that guy. Yes, he is a little bit overwhelming but troll of the A class. Congrats, anyway.
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❗The President of Madagascar fired his foreign minister for supporting an anti-Russian resolution at the UN General Assembly condemning referendums in the DPR, LPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.
In Madagascar, they understand that it is impossible to quarrel with Russia ...
-Ukraina_ru
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In Madagascar, they understand that it is impossible to quarrel with Russia ...
-Ukraina_ru
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Methodical strikes on Ukraine's energy system have been taking place for more than a week. How is our adversary tolerating them?
Despite the Ukrainian authorities' claims that up to 30% of all power plants were damaged, there is no talk of any noticeable slump in electricity generation or consumption. According to Ukrenergo, electricity generation on "peaceful" Tuesday, October 5 (12.07 gigawatts) exceeds that on the 18th (11.13 gigawatts) by just 9%. Despite periodic rolling blackouts, Ukrainians have kept the grid relatively stable so far.
The problem is not the inefficiency of the strikes, but the huge spare capacity that Ukraine has. Due to the almost complete shutdown of industry and electricity exports to the EU, less than 50% of Ukraine's power generation capacity is now in use. First and foremost, I am talking about TPPs and CHPPs, which now operate at just a fraction of their maximum capacity.
Does this mean that it is impossible to paralyze the Ukrainian energy system with the means available to the RF Armed Forces? NO!
More than 50% of the generation (~6 GW) is now done by nuclear power plants (Rivne, Khmelnitsky, and Southern Ukraine). Despite the huge capacity of TPPs, Ukraine does not have sufficient fuel reserves for them.
Of course, suggesting that the MoD should be like the Ukrainians and start shelling nuclear power plants is foolish. But there is another solution: to attack the outdoor switchgear of the substations to which the NPPs are connected, namely their transformers.
First of all, we are talking about 750kV substations - if all transformers at these substations are destroyed, the flow of power from the NPPs to the Ukrainian energy system will stop. What would it mean for Ukrainian power engineers?
Firstly, the Ukrainian NPP would repeat the fate of ZNPP and would be shut down because of its inability to "recycle" the electricity it produces. Restarting a nuclear power plant is a labor-intensive and long process. With cold weather looming, a sudden shutdown of all NPPs could have catastrophic consequences.
Second, although we mentioned earlier that Ukraine has a huge reserve of TPPs and cogeneration plants, it will not be possible to just use them to generate electricity. The problem is a shortage of fuel, especially coal. Fuel supplies from the West look unrealistic, given the gravest energy crisis in the EU. Even if the Europeans can allocate some resources to Ukraine, the question of logistics remains. Again, no one prevents the Russian Armed Forces from continuing strikes on other targets.
It is important to note that since the beginning of massive strikes on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure on October 10 and up until the 17th, no strikes on 750 kV substations have been recorded. This may have been due to the MOE's inherent humanism, but on the 17th several such substations were hit at once: Severo-Ukrainskaya, Dniprovskaya, and Vinnitskaya. The damage to transformers at these substations immediately caused rolling blackouts in Kharkov and Dnipropetrovsk.
Time will tell if such strikes are a one-off action or just the first swallows of a change in the MoD's approach to the destruction of Ukraine's strategic infrastructure.
The coordinates of all 750kV substations are available, and all of them are within the range of our weaponry. The only question is whether a decision will be made to destroy them or not.
It will not be easy to achieve the deterioration of the Ukrainian energy system by shelling only the rank-and-file CHPs. As always, a methodical approach to the task always yields great results.
By Redovka
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Despite the Ukrainian authorities' claims that up to 30% of all power plants were damaged, there is no talk of any noticeable slump in electricity generation or consumption. According to Ukrenergo, electricity generation on "peaceful" Tuesday, October 5 (12.07 gigawatts) exceeds that on the 18th (11.13 gigawatts) by just 9%. Despite periodic rolling blackouts, Ukrainians have kept the grid relatively stable so far.
The problem is not the inefficiency of the strikes, but the huge spare capacity that Ukraine has. Due to the almost complete shutdown of industry and electricity exports to the EU, less than 50% of Ukraine's power generation capacity is now in use. First and foremost, I am talking about TPPs and CHPPs, which now operate at just a fraction of their maximum capacity.
Does this mean that it is impossible to paralyze the Ukrainian energy system with the means available to the RF Armed Forces? NO!
More than 50% of the generation (~6 GW) is now done by nuclear power plants (Rivne, Khmelnitsky, and Southern Ukraine). Despite the huge capacity of TPPs, Ukraine does not have sufficient fuel reserves for them.
Of course, suggesting that the MoD should be like the Ukrainians and start shelling nuclear power plants is foolish. But there is another solution: to attack the outdoor switchgear of the substations to which the NPPs are connected, namely their transformers.
First of all, we are talking about 750kV substations - if all transformers at these substations are destroyed, the flow of power from the NPPs to the Ukrainian energy system will stop. What would it mean for Ukrainian power engineers?
Firstly, the Ukrainian NPP would repeat the fate of ZNPP and would be shut down because of its inability to "recycle" the electricity it produces. Restarting a nuclear power plant is a labor-intensive and long process. With cold weather looming, a sudden shutdown of all NPPs could have catastrophic consequences.
Second, although we mentioned earlier that Ukraine has a huge reserve of TPPs and cogeneration plants, it will not be possible to just use them to generate electricity. The problem is a shortage of fuel, especially coal. Fuel supplies from the West look unrealistic, given the gravest energy crisis in the EU. Even if the Europeans can allocate some resources to Ukraine, the question of logistics remains. Again, no one prevents the Russian Armed Forces from continuing strikes on other targets.
It is important to note that since the beginning of massive strikes on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure on October 10 and up until the 17th, no strikes on 750 kV substations have been recorded. This may have been due to the MOE's inherent humanism, but on the 17th several such substations were hit at once: Severo-Ukrainskaya, Dniprovskaya, and Vinnitskaya. The damage to transformers at these substations immediately caused rolling blackouts in Kharkov and Dnipropetrovsk.
Time will tell if such strikes are a one-off action or just the first swallows of a change in the MoD's approach to the destruction of Ukraine's strategic infrastructure.
The coordinates of all 750kV substations are available, and all of them are within the range of our weaponry. The only question is whether a decision will be made to destroy them or not.
It will not be easy to achieve the deterioration of the Ukrainian energy system by shelling only the rank-and-file CHPs. As always, a methodical approach to the task always yields great results.
By Redovka
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