🇺🇸🇮🇷🗣US can’t bully and bomb Iran into submission if its leaders don’t let it - expert

🟠 “It must be understood that Iran is not Venezuela, Iran is not Israel,” Bureau of Military-Political Analysis head Alexander Mikhailov told Sputnik, commenting on the risks Tehran faces negotiating with Washington, given that the US and Israel have attacked twice in the middle of negotiations in less than a year.

🟠 “Iran is a huge country -80 times larger than Israel, with a powerful defense industry. And if Iran’s political elites don’t accept the ‘conciliatory positions’ that the Trump administration has now begun to promote, this campaign could return to the US as a very serious disappointment in its own capabilities,” Mikhailov stressed.

🟠 “A blockade of Iran, or the takeover of political control over that country, would allow the Americans, first, to restrict China from very significant energy resources – up to 20% of its hydrocarbons come from Iran. Second, it would allow them to essentially take control of that region through energy,” Mikhailov warned, arguing that Washington is basically seeking a Venezuela 2.0 scenario in Iran.

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🗣 US-Israeli strikes on Iran throw international law out the window, mark return of law of the jungle - expert

🔊 “When the actual negotiators who were just saying that a deal was close” reverse course and say talks were “uninteresting and that’s why a blow was dealt, this brings us back to the understanding that…even those conditional, conceptual agreements of the collective West on the contours of certain political or diplomatic actions are a thing of the past,” political scientist Alexander Asafov says.

💬 “As is international law,” he added.

🔶 Asafov pointed out that “even the explanation for why strikes were carried out” keeps changing – from Trump’s disappointment with the progress of talks, to renewed claims that Iran is on the brink of a nuclear weapon, to hints that the negotiations were a ruse to buy time for a US-Israeli military buildup.

🔶 The observer attributes the changes to the character of the current US president, which “replaces everything: ethics, diplomacy, politics, negotiations, bargaining, deals” with “unilateral, arbitrary decision-making.”

🔶 It begs the question: “how can decisions be made, or more precisely, what guarantees can be given” in negotiations? Because “if the guarantee doesn’t work even during the course of talks,” if the potential for deception is baked in, “then, of course, there is less faith” in the entire process, Asafov summed up.

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🇺🇸🇮🇱US & Israel's Iran strike delayed by week ‘for operation and intel reasons’ – report

After the second round of US–Iran nuclear talks, “military planners” in America and Israel were preparing to conduct strikes against Iran on February 21, Axios cited senior US and Israeli officials as saying.

However, “the go-ahead never came,” something that could have been caused by bad weather in the region or the US side’s push for better coordination with the Israel Defense Forces, according to the officials.

👉 They argued that the delay opened a window for another round of talks in Geneva, with some insisting that the negotiations were a tactical maneuver to buy more time before the new strike date, keeping Iran believing that diplomacy was still the priority.

Other sources said that the Geneva talks were sincere, offering the possibility of avoiding military action if real progress was made.

The US and Israel started launching strikes on Iran on February 28, even as nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran were underway.

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🗣 Ukraine talks: Russia and US have a long record of striking pragmatic deals – Expert

🔶 The US is very shrewd and focused on making a deal, Bureau of Military-Political Analysis head Alexander Mikhailov told Sputnik while commenting on the US-Russia peace talks on Ukraine.

💬 "The only area where one can currently engage with the Americans is the question of the economic benefits—or lack thereof—of serious military conflicts," Mikhailov notes.

🔶 Asked if Washington is sincere in its talks with Russia after its attack on Iran, the pundit argues there are key differences between the two situations.

💬 "We and the Americans are two strategic nuclear powers that, since the mid-20th century, have divided the world into spheres of influence—and we continue to exist in this framework on a kind of superstructure," Mikhailov says.

🔶 Russia and the US also have a long history of negotiations during Cold War-era conflicts, including those beyond their borders, and reaching agreements.

🔶 But Mikhailov argues that if the US truly wants a quick Ukraine peace deal with Russia, it would have already been done.

💬 "The Americans find it advantageous to keep Ukraine as a factor destabilizing Russia’s borders, and more broadly, as a lever of pressure on Russia," the pundit says.

🔶 Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has previously stressed that Russia values US mediation but it is guided by its own national interests, with all agreements needing legal validation.

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🗣 Prolonged Hormuz Strait closure could unleash a multi-year oil price shock – Energy expert

📍 Closure of the Strait of Hormuz sends shockwaves through markets, with Citi predicting Brent crude could surge to $80 to $90 a barrel this week.

💬 "According to market reports, war risk underwriters began canceling policies for strait transits hours after Operation Epic Fury launched," Dr Tilak Doshi, energy editor at The Daily Sceptic, tells Sputnik.

🔊 "The Financial Times confirmed premiums surging 50%,” he warned. “Vessels linked to American or Israeli interests are becoming uninsurable entirely."

Overall impact of an extended shutdown:

🔸 Immediate/near-term spike:

🟧 80% to 150% rises sending Brent from around $70 to $80 per barrel to $130 to $200, amplified by panic, hoarding and risk premiums

🟧 That matches qualitative analyst warnings of triple-digit oil and potential 1970s-style shocks

The immediate price impact will ease over time, falling to 40% to 70% above the baseline as efficiency gains, fuel switching and non-Gulf supply response kick in, the expert said.

But in the short term, global consumption may fall by about 20 million barrels per day, with disproportionate pain for Asia, which buys an estimated 84% of Gulf oil.

🔸 Broader effects:

🔶 Sharp global inflation surge of two to four per cent

🔶 recessionary GDP drag, with oil shock multipliers typically −0.5 to −1% GDP per 10% price rise in short run, and severe hits to import-dependent economies

💬 "A prolonged Hormuz closure would trigger a massive, multi-year oil price shock – doubling or more initially – rationing around 19% of global supply purely through demand destruction. This underscores the chokepoint’s strategic risk," Doshi says.

🔶 The expert thinks markets "are now pricing in only a short disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, but much depends on how the war is prosecuted going forward."

💬 "With the US midterm elections in sight, the Trump administration will want to ensure that global crude oil prices are brought back down as quickly as possible, so as to put a limit on US gasoline prices," Doshi stresses.

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🇺🇸🇷🇺 The US has an interest in sealing a deal on Ukraine with Russia – expert

Washington is interested in striking a peace deal with Russia rather than escalating the Ukraine conflict, political scientist Alexander Asafov, member of the Russian Association of Political Consultants, tells Sputnik.

Russia has already presented its own proposals:

👉 the objectives of the special military operation must be achieved;

👉 they will be achieved by either military or diplomatic means.

❗️Washington knows that if negotiations fail, Russia will fight on until it achieves the de-militarization and de-Nazification of Ukraine and security for Russia, the pundit points out.

🗣"Those not involved in the negotiations—the Brits, the French, the Germans, the Poles, and others—have an interest in escalating the conflict, each for their own reasons," Asafov says.

💬"As for the actual participants in the talks—why would they shift their positions, and what would they gain?" the expert asks — suggesting that it is not in Washington’s interest to change course at the last minute.

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⚔️ CENTCOM releases footage of strikes on Iranian Navy

US Central Command announced the complete destruction of its surface fleet in the region.

"Two days ago, the Iranian regime had 11 ships in the Gulf of Oman, today they have zero," the statement reads.

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🔥 Gulf war: US and allies burning through missiles fast – military expert

🗣 The US risks running out of air defense missiles, military expert and air defense historian Yury Knutov tells Sputnik.

🔶 A video of a US Patriot battery in action "shows that eight interceptors are initially used against two ballistic missiles, with additional interceptors launched afterward," Knutov notes. "One ballistic missile is intercepted, while the other hits its target. One of the interceptors even veers off course and flies away."

🔶 The expert says the crew acted chaotically — either due to poor training or nerves — despite the fact that systems like the Patriot automate much of the engagement process.

💬 "If Patriot air defense missiles were used, it suggests the operators may have been either highly agitated — leading to numerous mistakes — or acting out of fear," Knutov says. "That fear could have prevented them from properly locking onto targets and engaging them accurately."

🔶 Knutov does not rule out the possibly that the systems were poorly-maintained, or that software errors caused the misses.

💬 "Such a massive expenditure of missiles — when no more than two should be needed per target — suggests that if the US and its allies continue using their missiles this way, their stockpiles could be depleted very quickly."

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⚔️ US evacuates its embassy in Amman

All personnel temporarily departed the compound in Jordanian capital out of "an abundance of caution," the embassy announces.

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🗣 Strongest strikes are yet to come — Rubio

The Secretary of State says US military is currently focused on destroying Iran's ballistic missile stockpiles.

"The next phase will be even more punishing on Iran than it is right now."

Rubio also acknowledges the US might play a role in governing Iran in the future.

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🗣 US testing rapid global strike concept in Iran, military expert Alexander Khrolenko says

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⚔️ US-Israeli bombs hit Iranian state broadcast

Two explosions reported near the headquarters of Iranian television and radio in Tehran following American and Israeli airstrikes.

Programming continued uninterrupted, local media reported.

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💥 Iranian strikes on US forces in Dubai killed over 40 — IRGC

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a combined drone-missile attack on US soldiers in Dubai.

The IRGC stated that more than 160 US troops were present at the target, citing field reports.

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🇶🇦 Qatar denies Patriot missile shortage reports

The Media Office pushes back against Bloomberg's report, insisting air defense capabilities remain fully intact.

"The Qatar Armed Forces have repeatedly demonstrated their capability to defend the nation against external threats and remain at full readiness."

Bloomberg previously reported that Qatar's stock of Patriots would last 4 days at the current rate of use.

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