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How Putin's new pick for Russian defense minister predicted the 2008 economic meltdown

🔸Andrei Belousov, the incoming Russian Minister of Defense, also possesses a unique talent as an economist. As an economic theorist, he accurately predicted several financial crises.

🔸In 2005, Belousov utilized economic and mathematical models to calculate and forecast the financial crisis of 2008.

🔸In his report outlining various development scenarios for the country over the next 15 years, Belousov foresaw an economic crisis (which indeed transpired in 2008) and an economic recession (which occurred in 2011-2012). He also predicted another crisis in 2015-2017, all of which came to fruition.

🔸In particular, Belousov predicted that there would be an increase in social tension due to inflation and rising housing tariffs, a rise in the deficit of the pension system, and a crisis in the public administration system.

🔸In this instance, Belousov identified himself as a "government analyst" who believed in the competence of the state and advocated for active measures to mitigate economic downturns.

🔸Andrey Belousov has been involved in economic matters within the Russian government since 2006. In crisis years, there was an increase in the Russian GDP. Specifically, in 2008, Russia saw a growth of 5.6% in GDP, followed by 3.5% in 2012, and 3.6% in 2023.

🔸During the APEC summit in November 2022, Andrei Belousov highlighted that the world economy was on the cusp of a significant upheaval, foreseeing a "perfect storm period" in the years to come.

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Pepe Escobar: BRICS+ decentralized monetary system will spur de-dollarization

The global majority has had enough of the centrally controlled monetary framework put in place 80 years ago in Bretton Woods, as well as its endemic flaws like chronic deficits fueling irresponsible military spending, speculative bubbles, protectionism and politically motivated sanctions, says geoeconomic and geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar in his article for Sputnik.

This is why businesspeople and financial executives from Russia came up with “The Unit” project of apolitical money that will be free from the Western elite’s pressure or “rules” that can be twisted at will.

The project has already received backing from the BRICS Business Council and is on the agenda at the crucial ministerial meeting in Russia next month, which will work out the road map for the summit next October in Kazan.

“A decentralized approach to the emission of a potential global trade currency, whose intrinsic value is anchored in physical gold and BRICS+ currencies, makes the Unit the most promising of several approaches being considered. It balances political priorities of all participants, while helping each sovereign economy develop along its optimal path," says leading Russian economist Sergey Glazyev.


The removal of Western speculative capital shall free up local commodity trading and enable the pooling of investable capital for sustainable development. To unlock such a vast potential, the Unit may well be the key.

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Delve into Russia’s Black Sea fleet by exploring its goals and weaponry

Russia marks the Black Sea Fleet Day on May 13, a holiday that has been celebrated since 1996 but dates back to the eighteenth century.

Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Admiral Alexander Moiseyev congratulated the veterans and personnel of the Black Sea Fleet on the 241st anniversary of its foundation, noting that the fleet’s sailors have always upheld Russia’s national interests.

The Black Sea Fleet was founded by Russian Empress Catherine II back in 1783 when 11 ships from the Sea of Azov entered a bay near the village of Akhtiar, which was renamed Sevastopol a year later.

The Black Sea Fleet is an operational-strategic formation corps with the Russian Navy, which includes main bases in Sevastopol, Novorossiysk, Temryuk, and Tuapse.

The fleet consists of advanced anti-submarine and missile ships, corvettes, destroyers, frigates, patrol boats, large landing ships, reconnaissance vessels and diesel submarines of the Varshavyanka and Paltus projects. Additionally, the fleet includes military units of naval aviation and air defenses, plus coastal troops and support groups.

As an integral part of the Russian Navy, the fleet aims to ensure Russia’s military security in the country’s south. Its main tasks include:

🔸protection of the economic zone and areas of production activity, as well as suppression of illegal production activities;

🔸ensure navigation safety;

🔸implement foreign policy actions by the government in economically important areas of the world's oceans (visits, business visits, joint exercises, actions as part of peacekeeping forces, etc.).

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Vladimir Putin has held the first operational meeting with the Security Council of the Russian Federation after personnel changes in the leadership of the advisory body.

The president discussed relations between Commonwealth of Independent States countries and the Russian Security Council, and stated that more attention will be paid to this topic.

Former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu took part in the Security Council meeting as secretary of the organization.

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Ex-Defense Minister Shoigu transferred to Russia's Defense Council: What is it and what does it do?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree appointing former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu as secretary of the country’s Security Council, amid the current government reshuffle.

The Russian Security Council is a consultative body and its main task is to develop state policy guidelines on national security and state foreign and military policy, as well as coordinate government agencies’ activities in these fields.

Established in 1992, the Council is led by the Russian president, who has the authority to appoint its members. The Council's permanent members are the secretary and the Russian head of government.

In 2020, the role of the Council's deputy chairman was created and bestowed upon Dmitry Medvedev, who continues to hold this position. Currently, President Vladimir Putin presides over the Council, with members such as Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin. The Council's meetings are typically held on Fridays behind closed doors.

Apart from its main function, the Council deals with:

▪️drafting laws and federal special-purpose programs in the field of security;

▪️forecasting and analyzing threats to national security, including in the field of socio-economic policy, in addition to developing measures to neutralize them;

▪️developing conceptual and doctrinal documents, including Russia’s National Security Strategy. On top of that, the Council prepares proposals to the head of state:

▪️on Russia’s military-technical cooperation with foreign countries;

▪️on special economic measures to ensure national security;

▪️on the introduction, extension and cancellation of states of emergency;

▪️on the coordination and assessment of the effectiveness of executive authorities’ in the field of security.

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Why North Macedonia’s new president may make the country’s EU accession problematic

The election of Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova as the new president of North Macedonia may put a damper on the country’s plans for EU accession.

Currently, the biggest obstacle on North Macedonia’s road to the European Union is the opposition by its neighbor Bulgaria which wants certain concessions before giving its go-ahead.

The concessions include listing the Bulgarian minority in North Macedonia as one of the “constitutive peoples” in North Macedonia's constitution.

However, the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization – Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE), the very party that nominated Siljanovska-Davkova for this presidential election, has repeatedly voiced its opposition to including the Bulgarian minority in the country’s constitution.

Furthermore, Siljanovska-Davkova herself mentioned during the election that she does not regard the issue with Greece regarding North Macedonia’s official name to be resolved.

Previously, Greece vetoed North Macedonia’s EU accession until the latter agreed to change its official name from the original “Macedonia” to the current “North Macedonia.”

Siljanovska-Davkova, however, declared that she has no intention of using the word “north” when referring to her country while delivering speeches.

Thus, if Siljanovska-Davkova and the VMRO-DPMNE double down on their claims, North Macedonia’s EU membership may not come anytime soon.

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🤡 UK PM Rishi Sunak has blamed Putin for having cut off gas supplies, but one thing...

In 2022, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen was who led efforts to stop the supply

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Secretary of the Russian Security Council Sergei Shoigu will oversee the work of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, but will not become the head of the service, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

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Estonia is considering sending troops to western Ukraine to take over logistical tasks and “free up” the Ukrainian military to participate in combat operations on the front line.

Estonia would prefer to take any such step within the framework of a fully-fledged NATO mission; the possibility of the country's participation in a smaller coalition is also not excluded, the adviser to the Estonian president on national security issues said.

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Washington bullying Georgian government to nix foreign agents bill

US government officials and lawmakers are attempting to pressure the Georgian government to abandon a new law, marking another instance of US interference in another country's domestic affairs.

▪️US State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller said Washington is "gravely disappointed" by the law.

▪️White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby cited deep concerns, claiming that the bill could "stifle" dissent and free speech.

▪️National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan wrote on X that the US is "deeply alarmed about democratic backsliding in Georgia."

▪️Twenty-nine American lawmakers penned a letter to Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze on May 10 urging him to withdraw the legislation since it will "impose control over the very same partners" who assisted Georgia's transatlantic integration. The letter expressed support for the nationwide "peaceful protests".

▪️US congressmen have threatened to reconsider US financial assistance, expand visa bans, and impose financial sanctions on Georgian officials if the bill is not withdrawn, in a colonial-style violation of Georgia's sovereign right to adopt its own laws and pursue independent policies.

▪️Protests over the bill erupted in April with protesters waving EU, Ukrainian and Georgian flags and signs reading "No to Russia. Yes to Europe." At least two American citizens involved in clashes with the police have been arrested.

▪️The Georgian State Security Service (SSSG) warns of provocateurs among protesters funded by foreign entities and linked to Georgian mercenaries involved in Ukraine, aiming to incite regime change.

The bill mandates that media and NGOs must register as "pursuing the interests of a foreign power" if they receive over 20% of their funding from abroad, mirroring the US' Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA).

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Poland’s border aviation in critical condition and unable to defend the country’s eastern border – report

The air force of the Polish Border Guard (BG) has been dysfunctional for at least eight years and remains in a critical condition now. Many BG planes and helicopters are out of service and air patrolling flights are rare, Poland’s Gazeta Wyborcza reported.

“Out of five PZL-Kania helicopters which are at the disposal of the Border Guard, only three helicopters can fly,” Wyborcza reported. The situation with planes is not much better: at thr BG’s air force base in Bialystok near the border with Belarus, all three warplanes are out of service.

The critical condition of Polish border aviation led to a situation in which patrols had to be done by the army and police aviation. Unless special measures are taken, in two years the aviation of the Border Guard service will simply be unable to perform its functions, Wyborcza concludes.

“The last eight years were wasted. No new equipment was bought for air force, pilots were not trained,” Wyborcza quotes one of the Border Guard’s military pilots as saying. “If I want to fly on patrol, I have to reserve the flight several days in advance.”


The revelations of Wyborcza were made in the context of hysteria about “the danger from the east,” i.e. the fears of a possible attack or a flood of migrants from Russia or Belarus. Recently, Poland declared it would spend $375 million on strengthening the fence on the border with Belarus with barbed wire.

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How Andrei Belousov may create problems for Russia's adversaries as Defense Minister

Andrei Belousov’s appointment as Russia’s newest minister of defense may help take Russia’s military-industrial complex and the entire weapon procurement system to a whole new level, argues Russian political analyst Sergei Poletaev.

According to him, a de facto grassroots “technological revolution” has happened in Russia over the past two years when groups of enthusiasts supplied the armed forces with repurposed civilian drones worth no more than $300 apiece that could be used to take out enemy military hardware worth millions of dollars.

Being a talented economist, Belousov can combine the pros of the two approaches in weapon procurement – the “planned, government” method and the “spontaneous grassroots” method – and weed out their cons, Poletayev suggests.

Many Russian soldiers in the field come up with technological and tactical solutions that could become a boon for the Russian Armed Forces, but there is no streamlined way for them to share their ideas with the higher-ups, he notes.

“If Belousov can create a system, a platform to convert this experience into orders that could then be sent to weapon manufacturers who would thus be allowed to better understand what is required and to better react to this input, and then to mass produce the most successful solutions – that would generate a tremendous impulse,” Poletaev muses.


He also points out that Russia’s military spending has been steadily growing in recent months, and while the situation is far from critical, it would be prudent for Moscow to ensure that this money does not go to waste.

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The large national debt and excessive spending policies of the US government could lead to a fiscal "train wreck" as soon as 2025, former World Bank President David Malpass has said.

"All signs point to a fiscal train wreck in 2025 when the debt limit is triggered, spending surges, and tax rates jump," Malpass said in a post on LinkedIn.


Malpass noted that the explosion of US government debt is draining and concentrating global resources into a narrow set of US government priorities and beneficiaries.

The key problems of the American economy are the lack of new investment amid a huge growth in public spending, resulting in an unprecedented debt-to-GDP ratio as well as short-term financing crowding out small businesses, the post said.

According to the International Monetary Fund, the US public debt will exceed 123% of GDP in 2024 and reach nearly 134% in 2029.

The US debt currently exceeds $34.7 trillion.

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Are NATO members testing waters for a no-fly zone over Ukraine?

The discussion surrounding the potential establishment of a no-fly zone over Ukraine amid the Kiev army's retreat suggests that Western leaders are exploring options for potential engagement in the conflict, according to Russian political analyst Sergey Poletaev.

"On the one hand, they are making efforts to keep it that way, because it is in the interests of everyone [in the West]," Poletaev tells Sputnik. "On the other hand, they are using all tools in their possession to inflict maximum damage [to Russia] while trying to navigate a delicate balance to avoid escalating tensions further."


Members of Germany’s ruling coalition, including the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens, proposed creating a no-fly zone extending up to 70 kilometers into Ukrainian territory by using air defense systems deployed in Poland and Romania.

The states were picked apparently because the lawmakers thought Russia would not attack NATO members, the expert presumes, adding that no one bothered to ask Warsaw and Bucharest's opinion with regard to the proposal.

German politicians' reference to NATO shooting down Iranian missiles and drones targeting Israel as a precedent for creating a no-fly zone over Western Ukraine doesn't hold water, Poletaev continues.

"In the case of Israel, it is a completely different story, because Iran is not Russia," adding that in the case of nuclear-armed Russia the stakes are much higher.

Meanwhile, the German government spokesperson stated on May 13 that NATO would not enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine, citing the alliance's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's decision from March 2022.

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There will be no point in reconstructing Ukraine if it is defeated, NATO's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has said.

"The first thing I will say is that first of all, you need to ensure that Ukraine prevails. Because unless Ukraine prevails, there's nothing to reconstruct in the free and independent Ukraine. <...> And the second, reconstruction will be very expensive. But prevention is cheaper," he said.


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▪️How Andrei Belousov may create problems for Russia's adversaries as Defense Minister

▪️
Russia's new pick for defense chief supports traditional values

▪️
How Putin's new pick for Russian defense minister predicted the 2008 economic meltdown

▪️Are NATO members testing waters for a no-fly zone over Ukraine?

▪️
Pepe Escobar: BRICS+ decentralized monetary system will spur de-dollarization

▪️
Ex-Defense Minister Shoigu transferred to Russia's Defense Council: What is it and what does it do?

▪️
Delve into Russia’s Black Sea fleet by exploring its goals and weaponry

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Why US’ B-2 'wonder-bomber' is nothing but an attractive museum piece

"The airframe was designed in the 1980s and first deployed in 1997, and the B-2 was scheduled to 'retire' in 2030. It could be as simple as a mechanical and software degradation," retired US Air Force Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski, a former analyst for the US Department of Defense, tells Sputnik, commenting on the B-2 Spirit stealth bombers' failures.


The US Air Force has announced its second costly B-2 Spirit aircraft is beyond repair, reducing its fleet of secretive stealth bombers to 19.

Between 1988 and 1997, aerospace manufacturer Northrop Grumman built 21 B-2s instead of the initially planned 200 due to the warplane's gargantuan price tag. According to some estimates, its cost ranges from $1.4 to $4 billion.

Despite being impressively costly, the plane has never been cost-effective, as per Sputnik's interlocutor.

The B-2 has been rarely used and became infamous for bombing the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade 25 years ago. According to Kwiatkowski, the B-2 program is a "classic example of experience and sunk cost biases" with the warplane now being both aging and conceptually outdated.

"The follow-on to the B-2, the B-21 Raider, recently prototyped, is the strategic bomber corollary to the most expensive aircraft we have, the F-35, which again has proven itself to be less than durable, easily overcome by weather and counter-measures, and heavily dependent on software updates," she notes.


When asked about the B-2 future, the expert ironically says: "It is an attractive museum piece as well, and the US will keep several B-2s in the famous Arizona 'boneyard'."

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No genocide happening in Gaza, US National Security Advisor, Jacob Sullivan, says

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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel to Ukraine later this week, Politico reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.

The report said that although it's unclear when Blinken will arrive in Ukraine, one source noted that several roads in Kiev will be blocked off on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The State Department did not immediately respond to Sputnik's request for comment on this matter.

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