Iran-Israel escalation: is a regional conflict in the Middle East imminent?

Iran’s missile strike on Israel on October 1 has garnered support from the Axis of Resistance, while Tel Aviv has threatened Iran with "consequences."

Who might align with Iran if Israel retaliates?

🔸 Yahya Saria, a spokesman for the Yemeni Shiite group Houthis, stated on October 2 that the group supports Iran’s missile strike and is ready to "join any joint military operations against the Israeli enemy." He also confirmed the Houthis targeted Israeli military positions with three Quds-5 cruise missiles.

🔸 The Palestinian movement Hamas praised the "heroic missile launch" by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and claimed responsibility for the October 1 attack in Jaffa, which resulted in seven deaths and 16 injuries in Israel.

🔸 The Iraqi Resistance Coordination Committee warned via Telegram that if the US assists Israel in attacking Iran, "all American bases and interests in Iraq and the region will be targeted."

🔸 Hezbollah, a Shiite movement, is already engaged in ground clashes with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in southern Lebanon as Israel launched its military operation.

How might Israel respond?

🔸 Israeli officials, quoted by US and Israeli media, indicated that Tel Aviv may strike Iran’s critical infrastructure, including gas and oil facilities, nuclear sites, and air defense systems. Targeted assassinations are also reportedly under consideration.

How have international players reacted?

🔸 The Russian Embassy in Israel stated on October 2 that "it is time to immediately cease military actions."

🔸 The Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed "deep concerns" over the situation, attributing the new escalation to the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

🔸 The G7 condemned Iran’s missile strike on Israel.

🔸 US President Joe Biden emphasized that Israel’s response to Iran should be "proportional" and did not endorse strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites.

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Israeli strikes on central Beirut claim lives of 6 people, injuring 7 - Lebanese Health Ministry

Six people were killed and 7 others were injured in an Israeli air strike on the Bachoura district in central Beirut, the Lebanese Health Ministry's Emergency Situations Center said.

Footage from social media

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🇲🇱 Mali hopes to apply for BRICS membership in ‘near future’ - Foreign Minister

Mali is interested in joining the BRICS group of nations and hopes to apply for membership soon along with other Sahel countries, including Burkina Faso and Niger, Malian Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Abdoulaye Diop told Sputnik.

"Mali is interested. Of course, we have not reached the point to put up an application, but that conversation is going on with our Russian friends but also with some other BRICS members," Diop said in an interview on the margins of the UN General Assembly. "I do hope that in the near future our country collectively with the Confederation of the Sahel States, would approach BRICS for membership."

BRICS represents a model of multilateralism and could make Mali's voice better heard in the international arena, the minister said.

The alliance could also provide additional economic opportunities to the country, like using national currencies in trade and receiving funding from the New Development Bank, Diop added.

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‘New day’ for world as myth of Israeli invincibility shattered – analyst (Part 1 👉 Part 2)

Officials have claimed no fatalities after Iran’s retaliatory strike against Israel Tuesday, but the US ally’s former projection of power and deterrence in the region may prove to be the most significant casualty of the day’s events, according to Beirut-based journalist Esteban Carrillo on Sputnik’s Fault Lines program.

“The Iranians targeted exactly what they wanted to target… multiple air bases, including the one that, apparently, the attack that killed Hezbollah's Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah [was launched from],” he noted. “It's a new day for Israel. It's a new day for Iran, for the US, for the resistance axis, for the entire world.”

“They gave the US time, they gave a chance for a ceasefire in Gaza... But we have seen now for months on end that Israel sabotages these negotiations day in and day out.”

Israel’s regional deterrence has historically rested its Iron Dome and the support it enjoys from the US. But Iran’s use of hypersonic missiles has proven that Tehran has the ability to bypass the defense system and strike any target within Israeli territory. Meanwhile, the US has found itself boxed in by the upcoming presidential election as President Biden works to prevent the outbreak of a regional war that could sink Democrats’ chances in November.

“They are getting cut down [in Lebanon],” Carrillo claimed. “They are getting ambushed. They are getting sent back with their tails between their legs because they do not have the winning hand. So Iran last night warned Israel, ‘Do not miscalculate.’”

👉 Part 2

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After Tuesday’s attack, has Iran eclipsed Israel’s deterrence capacity? (Part 2 👉 Part 1)

Beirut-based journalist Esteban Carrillo claimed the balance of power in the Middle East has changed after Iran’s attack against Israel Tuesday, with Iranian hypersonic capabilities and other events on the ground limiting Israel’s options.

“‘Do not think that you can, at this point, hit us again,’” Carrillo said on Sputnik’s Fault Lines program, summarizing the message sent by Tehran’s attack. “‘Because if you do, if you come and you hit Iran,’ they are saying, ‘you are going to face our wrath. You are going to quickly collapse. This is going to be the end of you.”

Meanwhile, questions have been raised about the United States’ capacity to continue arming its Israeli ally as it faces commitments across the globe.

“How are we now going to supply Israel in another war?” asked host Jamarl Thomas, suggesting the US is being stretched thin by providing arms in various conflicts. “Against what, three states? Four states? Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran? And the Houthis. Five states. How are we going to supply weapons for this larger war while the war in Ukraine also continues at a steady pace?”

“Don't forget about Taiwan too,” Carrillo noted, “this planned escalation against China which is also in the wings, which is also something that the US hasn't given up on… Diplomacy is a foreign word for [the US government]... a dirty word even… US officials seem really just hellbent on lining their pockets with money from the weapons companies because at the end of the day, war is just a money-laundering machine.”

👉 Part 1

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🇲🇱 Mali’s probe into Ukraine’s ties to terrorists should not take long - Foreign Minister

Mali's investigation into Ukraine's involvement with terrorists in Africa should not take long since Kiev has already publicly acknowledged such cooperation, Malian Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Abdoulaye Diop told Sputnik.

"This investigation has just been opened a few days ago, but I don't think there is much to do, because Ukrainian officials themselves proclaim openly on record their implication and their involvement with terrorist networks in providing them with intelligence, equipment, and even claiming that additional things will happen," Diop said.

The results of the investigation will be published by the Malian authorities in due course, the minister added.

The UN Security Council "remains silent" on the compliant Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger sent in August in connection with Ukraine's support for terrorists, Diop said.

"So far the Council remains silent. We don't know what is the reason," Diop noted.

On July 30, the Senenews news outlet reported that Mali and Mauritania were investigating the involvement of Ukrainian military instructors in the years-long conflict in Mali on the side of the terrorists.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said earlier that the fact Ukraine was cooperating with terrorists from the Sahel region was not surprising and Moscow had been actively drawing the attention of the international community to those actions.

In early August, nine Senegalese public organizations said that a video published by Ukrainian defense intelligence spokesperson Andriy Yusov confirming Kiev's involvement in the attack on the Wagner Group in Mali, was additional evidence of Ukraine’s support for armed groups in that country.

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❗️Russian air defense systems intercepted and destroyed 113 Ukrainian drones overnight, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

During the night, Ukrainian drones were destroyed over 4 Russian regions: 73 drones were intercepted over the Belgorod region and 25 over Voronezh, 14 drones were destroyed over Kursk and one over the Bryansk region, the Russian Defense Ministry added.

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'Biden administration has consistently enabled Israel's aggressions and criminality' - journalist

The US government quietly backed Israel’s military attack on Lebanon, The New Republic wrote, with US officials telling Israel that the US would support their decision to bomb Hezbollah targets, even with US President Joe Biden urging a ceasefire in the region as soon as Monday.

"[The US] justified what Israel did, the killing of Nasrallah, even though it obliterated hundreds of innocent Lebanese civilians - and laid waste to multiple apartment blocks,” said Dimitri Lascaris, a lawyer and journalist based in Montreal, Canada and Kalamata, Greece, on Sputnik’s The Critical Hour program.

The report names presidential adviser Amos Hochstein and White House coordinator for the Middle East Brett McGurk, who told Israeli officials that the US supported their strategy to launch military attacks on Lebanon. At the same time some officials in the State Department and the Department of Defense cautioned that backing Israel could pull the US further into war in the region.

“We should first of all acknowledge that this is retaliatory,” the analyst added. “What Iran did was the result of an accumulation of aggressions, including the destruction of its consulate in Damascus months ago, the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran when he was there for the inauguration of the new president, the killing of Iranian military officers and a lower-level military personnel in Syria again and again and again.”

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The IDF reported the first casualties of the ground operation in Lebanon among the Israeli military – eight soldiers were killed in the south of the country, the Times of Israel writes.

Earlier, Israeli army said it had launched “limited, localized and targeted raids against Hezbollah” in the South Lebanon border area.

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🇷🇺🇨🇳Russia and China are intensively developing military and military-technical cooperation - Russian FM

"The high level of mutual trust makes it possible to intensively develop military and military-technical cooperation, conduct joint military exercises, organize air and sea patrols, and carry out friendly cooperation in the area of the common border," Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov wrote in his article for the Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper, dedicated to the 75th anniversary since establishment of Russia-China diplomatic relations.

Lavrov also noted that despite various restrictive measures imposed by the United States and its satellites, the economies of Russia and China have continued to develop dynamically.

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Russia and China will constantly strengthen and improve cooperation mechanisms at all levels and in all areas, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi wrote in an article for Renmin Ribao.

"Both sides will fully implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of states and firmly support each other on issues affecting each other's sovereignty, security and development, as well as other core interests," Wang Yi said.

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Israel discusses with US possibility of strike against IRGC in Syria or Yemen — report

Israel, as a response to rocket fire from Iran, may strike at the forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria or Yemen, media reported, citing sources in the US administration.

Earlier, US President Joe Biden said that he did not support Israel's strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, and also voiced the position of the G7 countries, which claimed Israel has the right to respond to a strike from Iran, but that this response must be proportionate. According to the report, this shows the limited capabilities of the United States in preventing "extreme steps" on the part of the Israeli leadership, and a "full-scale war" in the Middle East.

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Yemeni Houthis said they attacked an "important target" in the Israeli Tel Aviv area with drones. The operation was "successful.”

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