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THROWBACK: Netanyahu in 2002 urges US to invade Iraq, arguing that bringing down Saddam Hussein will lead to regime change in Iran

"If you take out Saddam, Saddam's regime, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region. And I think that people sitting right next door in Iran, young people and many others, will say the time of such regimes is gone. There is a new age, something new is happening," Netanyahu said.

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Iranian media publish new footage of Iran's preparation of missiles for an attack on Israel.

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What are the economic consequences of the latest Mideast escalation?

A new wave of tensions between Israel and Lebanon, as well as Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel in the aftermath of the IDF’s killing of Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has been taking a toll on global finances.

🔸Oil prices have soared amid investors’ fears that supplies from the world's top producing region would be disrupted. North Sea Brent Crude hit a one-month high of $76.14, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to a two-week peak of $72.48 before retreating.

🔸Hydrocarbon price shock can be tamped down by increasing the input of other oil-producing countries, but OPEC+ has decided not to alter output policy for now.

🔸According to various estimates, the Middle East accounts for more than 30% of global oil output. Russian Deputy PM Alexander Novak, who was previously in charge of the Ministry of Energy, explained that the oil price hike could be higher, but with investors anticipating further Mideast escalation, the prices already reflect the risks.

🔸Gold prices also went up slightly to $2 694,7 for a troy ounce, since this metal is generally viewed as a safe haven in times of economic turmoil.

Earlier, S&P downgraded the Israeli sovereign credit rating from ‘A+’ to ‘A’ due to the negative outlook, citing prospects of retaliatory missile strikes and the likelihood of increased spending on military campaigns. According to the agency, Israeli GDP will stagnate in 2024, while consumer and investor confidence will be undermined. The prospect of a call-up of IDF reservists also hinders economic recovery. Moody’s agency also downgraded the Israeli credit rating.

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❗️The Israeli military has attacked the intelligence headquarters of the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah in Beirut, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said.

"A short while ago, IAF [Israel Air Forces] fighter jets, operating based on IDF intelligence, struck targets belonging to Hezbollah's Intelligence Headquarters in Beirut," including operatives belonging to the unit, intelligence-gathering means, command centers, and additional terrorist infrastructure, the IDF said on Telegram.

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⚡️The Russian Defense Ministry officially announced the liberation of the Ugledar city

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How could Israel respond to Iran's missile strike?

The Israeli government is weighing how to respond to Iran's retaliatory missile attack. Iran fired between 100 and 500 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday, according to various estimates.

Israel claimed that most of the missiles were intercepted, causing only limited damage. But Iran said it hit two Israeli air force bases and the headquarters of the Mossad intelligence agency, and the Iranian IRIB news agency reported that the Islamic Republic used hypersonic Fattah-1 missiles to knock out Israel's Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 anti-ballistic missile systems.

What options does Israel have?

🔸 Possible attacks on Iran's oil infrastructure to cripple its economy are on the table, the Wall Street Journal reports.

🔸 Taking out Iran's air defense systems, according to Axios.

🔸 Clandestine assassination operations are also under consideration, the Times of Israel writes.

🔸 Attacks on nuclear sites. Reuters has named possible targets including two enrichment plants in Natanz, the Fordow enrichment site, the uranium conversion facility and fuel plate fabrication plant in Isfahan, a partially built heavy-water research reactor in Khondab, the Tehran research center and the Bushehr nuclear power plant.

What does the US say?

🔸 US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller signaled that Washington would coordinate with Israel on its response to the Iranian attack.

🔸 The Washington Post quoted US President Joe Biden as being supportive of Israel's plan to respond to Iran, but ruling out attacks on Iran's nuclear sites.

🔸 CNN claims the White House's ability to control Israel's military strategy is "quite limited," quotting US security experts.

When will Israel respond?

🔸 Israeli army spokesperson Daniel Hagari insisted that Israel would respond "wherever, whenever, and however we choose".

🔸 Axios said Israel's decision on how to respond would be made after consultations with the US.

🔸 Israeli UN Envoy Danny Danon told CNN that the retaliation "will be soon."

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Israel's air defense: A high-tech shield that leaks like a sieve

On October 1, Iran fired around 200 ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israel’s killings of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah. Iran claims 90% hit their targets, while Tel Aviv insists their “state-of-the-art” air defense stopped most of them – although evidence on the ground suggests otherwise. How did Israel’s missile defense fare when really put to the test?

🔸 Iron Dome: Designed for short-range threats like rockets and mortars, with a range of 4-70km. Each battery has a radar and launchers with 20 interceptors. But its weakness against mass rocket attacks has been exposed, and at $50,000 per missile it’s not exactly budget-friendly.

🔸 David's Sling: Built for longer-range threats up to 300km, it uses kinetic "hit-to-kill" tech to shoot down ballistic missiles. But it lacks a fragmenting explosive warhead to take out missiles in a near-miss, and like its counterparts it buckles under mass missile attacks.

🔸 The Arrow 2 and 3 systems are built to stop medium and long-range missiles up to 2,400km away and can target 14 missiles at once. But when the skies get busy, accuracy falters and their blind spots for fast-moving threats become a real problem.

🔸 Iron Beam: The new kid on the block – except it’s still not quite ready to play. Touted as a ‘Star Wars’ weapon using lasers to shoot down missiles, the Iron Beam is still in development. For now, it’s nothing more than a promise on paper and Israel remains vulnerable while waiting for this technology to come online.

CNN reported that some Iron Dome batteries would be overwhelmed if Israel launched a full-scale war with Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

Russian military historian Yury Knutov told Sputnik that the Iron Dome is effective only when dealing with a few targets coming from one direction. During last year’s surprise Hamas attack on Israel, a number of rockets launched by the Palestinian militant group penetrated the air defenses and struck Israeli cities.

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