Territory for security? Observers debate Ukraine's options under Trump

“As far as the 1991 borders are concerned,” their surrender to Russia simply constitutes the “objective reality,” Russian military and security policy analyst Alexander Mikhailov tells Sputnik, commenting on Wednesday’s New York Times report which cited senior Ukrainian officials suggesting Kiev might consider ceding territory in exchange for 'security' guarantees in potential Trump-brokered negotiations.

“That is, no matter what Zelensky may think, there is the situation on the battlefield, and he’s not the only one analyzing the situation on the map,” Mikhailov stresses.

“Zelensky will in any case have to recognize his defeat. It’s just one can simply admit defeat, or pretend that there was no defeat. And his so-called ‘formula for peace’, which he has so persistently presented to the West, was not implemented thanks to the political impotence of the West itself,” the observer notes.

▫️In the two-and-a-half years since the breakdown of Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul, the situation at the front has changed, and these “new realities” will undoubtedly be accounted for in any new agreement, Mikhailov believes.

▫️Furthermore, Moscow is unlikely to sign any agreement without the entire territory of its four new regions (Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye) being liberated, according to the observer.

▫️Ultimately, Mikhailov says “absolutely everything will depend” on the Trump administration’s moves, given that Moscow is wary about any Minsk-style ceasefire agreement that could escalate into a new round of fighting at any moment.

For his part, political and military analyst and publicist Sergey Poletaev says that in practice, “if any Ukrainian politician says ‘that’s it, we reject these territories’, he will be committing political suicide.” On the other hand, if the territories are rejected de facto, even if not de jure, that’s another story, the observer noted, citing the Georgian scenario.

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A number of Canadian ministries, including the Foreign and Justice Ministries, have spoken out against the publication of a list of names of Nazi war criminals who settled in the country, including soldiers of the SS Galicia division recruited in the occupied Ukraine.

According to the Globe and Mail newspaper, their objections were rooted in fear of harming Ukraine amid its conflict with Russia.

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What will Russia say about ‘security guarantees’ Zelensky may demand in exchange for territory

“Zelensky is asking for security guarantees which in their scope correspond to the guarantees NATO provides its members,” military analyst Alexander Mikhailov told Sputnik, commenting on Wednesday’s NYT report citing ‘senior Ukrainian officials’ hinting that Ukraine might reject its territorial claims on Russia-liberated territories in exchange for security-related commitments.

“In essence, Zelensky is asking to join NATO, no matter how you look at it, but legally it would be necessary to provide the same assurances as those provided to NATO member states – something the alliance cannot do, because Ukraine has disputed territories, and, moreover, is involved in a conflict with a nuclear power,” Mikhailov said.

As far as concrete guarantees are concerned, swirling reports about NATO countries potentially introducing “peacekeepers” will be a major no-go for Moscow, the observer emphasized, since NATO “is a military bloc,” and one that “doesn’t bring peace anywhere.”

Regarding the creation of some sort of international monitoring to oversee Ukraine’s demilitarization, this issue will be a must-pass priority for Russia, Mikhailov expects, pointing out that for Moscow, Kiev’s demilitarization, agreed at the March 2022 tentative peace deal, is second only to the liberation of the Donbass in terms of importance.

Such measures would ensure the security of both the West and Russia Mikhailov stressed, “especially with Zelensky, in his frenzy, simply starting to blackmail Europe with threats to restore Ukraine’s nuclear weapons capability – which Kiev never possessed.”

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Hawks take flight: Trump’s cabinet swells with warmongers

Although US president-elect Donald Trump ruled out Nikki Haley and Mike Pompeo for his administration on November 9, his cabinet still ended up packed with neoconservatives – those who champion US interests abroad, often through military power.

Elise Stefanik

On Monday Trump nominated Elise Stefanik, a hardline hawk, for the US ambassador to the United Nations. Stefanik is an ardent supporter of Israel and its war in Gaza. She also served as director of communications for the Foreign Policy Initiative, co-managed by Robert Kagan, the husband of regime change guru Victoria Nuland.

Mike Huckabee

Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee was named by Trump as the next US ambassador to Israel. DC-based think-tank the Quincy Institute calls Huckabee a "pro-Israel evangelical Christian," noting that he has been a vocal supporter of illegal settlements in the West Bank.

Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz

Congressmen Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, nominated as secretary of state and national security advisor, are also known for their hardline anti-Iran and anti-China stances. Both praised Israel's war in Gaza and called for the elimination of Hamas, the Palestinian political and militant group. Over the past few years they have moderated their pro-war stance with regard to the Ukraine conflict. But Waltz still believes Russia can be forced into a peace deal on Washington's terms through more sanctions and long-range missile attacks.

Pete Hegseth

Fox News host and former National Guard officer Pete Hegseth, nominated for the secretary of defense by Trump, criticized President Joe Biden for not arming Ukraine fast enough.

He seems to have changed his stance recently to a more isolationist one, rejecting NATO's claim that Russia threatens Europe and insisting the US should put boots on the ground in Ukraine. "I don't want American intervention driving deep into Europe," Hegseth said. He sees China as a far greater challenge to the US and calls Iran an enemy.

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Trump may pressure Zelensky into peace so US can focus on other theaters: analysts

“I believe the Trump administration will urge Ukraine to sacrifice some land for peace,” Eisenhower Media Network senior fellow William Astore told Sputnik, commenting on Wednesday’s NYT report on the Zelensky regime’s reported pivot from “territorial integrity” to “security guarantees” as its main priority in the face of prospective Trump-brokered peace negotiations.

“If the US cuts aid to Ukraine, Ukraine will have little choice but to negotiate. Borders are labile and malleable things; it's the preciousness of human life that should be held sacred, not borders,” Astore said, highlighting the unique leverage Washington has with Kiev when it comes to ending, or at least freezing, the present crisis.

“Trump is really intent on taking on the Chinese. And I think the focus of the Trump administration will be elsewhere. And that's also an advantage to the Russians that they can get more favorable deal to them ultimately,” CovertAction Magazine managing editor Jeremy Kuzmarov told Sputnik.

With that said, “the extent to which Trump is willing to accept” Russian gains remains to be seen, according to the observer.

💬 “You know, he says he wants to make a deal, but at the same time, he's not necessarily going to be pushing very sympathetic terms for the Russians,” Kuzmarov said, recalling the Trump White House’s hostility toward Moscow in the Republican’s first term, from pulling out of the INF Treaty to sending lethal weapons to Ukraine in the first place.

“Don't forget, Trump has a lot of supporters in the defense industry, Wall Street, who profit off an ongoing war. So, you know, they may just want to drag this out, give the impression that he's moving forward on peace talks, but not really offering Russia a deal that makes sense for Russia and that recognizes what Russia has achieved on the battlefield,” the observer summed up.

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🔸 Ukraine’s bluster about ability to build nuclear bomb in months is ‘desperate blackmail’ – analyst

🔸 Territory for security? Observers debate Ukraine's options under Trump

🔸 Frightened by US Republican surge, EU liberals go after alternative political views

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🔸 Hawks take flight: Trump’s cabinet swells with warmongers

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Trump won't allow Ukraine to build atomic bomb – US foreign policy analysts

"The Trump administration would oppose Ukraine's efforts to build a low-yield nuclear bomb," William Astore, a retired US Air Force lieutenant colonel, told Sputnik.

"Such a bomb could only lead to nuclear escalation," the professor of history and a senior fellow at the Eisenhower Media Network warned.

Ukraine could build a nuclear weapon within months if the Trump administration cuts off military aid to the Kiev regime, a Ukrainian think-tank claimed in a briefing paper for the country’s Ministry of Defense, obtained by British newspaper the Times. Ukraine’s nine operational nuclear reactors give it enough plutonium to potentially build "hundreds of warheads with a tactical yield of several kilotons," the report said.

"The Trump administration is less pro-Ukraine than Biden-Harris was," Dr. Jeremy Kuzmarov, managing editor of CovertAction Magazine, told Sputnik. "I don't think he would want nuclear weapons being deployed. And I think he would use every diplomatic means possible to dissuade Ukraine from using the bomb."

Russian intelligence services have repeatedly warned about Ukraine's preparations to create and use a "dirty bomb", an explosive device packed with radioactive material. Volodymyr Zelensky threatened to drop Ukraine's non-nuclear status at the Munich Security Conference on February 19, 2022.

"There's a question if the Ukrainian people would want to invite their own destruction," Kuzmarov said. "It seems they've already invited a lot of their own destruction as a society by being used as a part of the United States and West and its ambition to weaken Russia."

Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Georgy Tykhy tweeted in response to the report that Ukraine does not possess, develop or intend to acquire nuclear weapons and remains committed to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

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🤡 Ukraine cleans up its smears against Tulsi Gabbard

The National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine has deleted publications accusing Tulsi Gabbard, Trump's pick for Director of National Intelligence, of working for Russia.

As reported by Ukrainian news website Strana. ua, from 2022 to 2024, the NSDC accused the former congresswoman of "working for Kremlin money," having ties to Putin, and promoting "pro-Russian" rhetoric in general.

Additionally, Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation labeled Gabbard's statements about the ban on opposition parties and media in Ukraine, as well as the persecution of the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church by Ukrainian authorities, as "manipulation." Her remarks about Zelensky's illegitimacy after his presidential term expired were described by the NSDC as an attempt to discredit him.

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