Wrong place, wrong time: Why Cyprus’ push for NATO membership could destabilize EU and Western bloc

Greek media have reported on Cyprus’ desire to join NATO, with the White House reportedly considering the scenario a “win-win” proposition.

Sputnik asked regional observers to share their views on the matter.

“For the US, Cyprus joining NATO could enhance Western influence in the eastern Mediterranean and provide strategic access to counterbalance Russia’s presence in the region. However, these benefits must be weighed against the risks of exacerbating tensions within NATO itself, particularly given Turkiye’s longstanding disputes with Cyprus,” Venice-based international affairs analyst Dr. Marco Marsili told Sputnik.

“Far from being a ‘win-win’, such a development could deepen existing divisions within the alliance and undermine European cohesion,” Marsili stressed, explaining that while Cyprus “may view NATO membership as a means to gain stronger international recognition and leverage in its long-standing territorial dispute with Turkiye,” the “broader implications are more complex.”

“Cyprus’ membership could escalate tensions between Turkiye and other NATO members, undermining alliance cohesion at a time when unity is critical,” he said.

The view from Turkiye

Cyprus’ NATO aspirations have “been on the agenda for a long time, but the problem is, Cyprus is not recognized by Turkiye as a sovereign state,” Ankara-based security and political analyst Dr. Hasan Selim Ozertem told Sputnik. Turkiye could simply veto Cyprus’ application, he pointed out.

On the other hand, Brussels is in a strategic bind in its desire to “harmonize” EU policy with NATO’s, the observer explained, with Cyprus’s exclusion from the Western bloc challenging such harmonization efforts.

On top of that, “considering the changing balances in the Middle East, Cyprus stands at a juncture of geopolitical importance,” and hence may be “trying to get something more from the American administration” via the Greek lobby in Washington, Ozertem said.

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🇮🇱🇱🇧 The Israeli cabinet is set to vote on a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon on Tuesday, CNN reports citing a spokesperson for Benjamin Netanyahu. A source familiar with the situation revealed that the Israeli prime minister has given preliminary approval to the plan, CNN says.

Netanyahu hinted at his support for the proposed ceasefire with Hezbollah during a security briefing with Israeli officials on Sunday night, the source added.

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Generational conflict triggered by Britain: what’s the beef over Cyprus about?

Geopolitical tensions over Cyprus escalated after Greek media revealed that the country’s president had presented the US with a long-term plan for Cyprus’ NATO membership. Here’s a refresher on the causes of the long-running tensions over the island:

🔸 Situated in the northeastern Mediterranean about 550 km east of the Greek island of Crete and about 65 km south of Turkiye, Cyprus was settled by Greeks in 1100 BC, with large-scale Turkish settlement starting in 1571 after the island’s conquest by the Ottoman Empire.

🔸 Before the escalation of tensions in the second half of the 20th century, Greeks, Turks and other nationalities including Armenians and Maronites proved capable of living peacefully in mixed communities across the island. In 1960, when Cyprus gained independence from Britain (which had taken possession of the island from the Ottomans in 1878), Greek Cypriots made up about 77% of the population, while Turkish Cypriots made up about 18%.

🔸 Greek Cypriots’ burning desire for reunification with Greece during the period of British rule, combined with the conflict-rife administrative system introduced by the British before their departure, became a recipe for an inter-ethnic conflict that turned violent in 1963, after a routine traffic stop by Greek Cypriot police near the Turkish quarter in Nicosia turned deadly, with two Turkish Cypriots killed. The incident sparked a wave of intercommunal violence across the island.

🔸 The crisis came to a head in July 1974, when Turkiye invaded northeastern Cyprus days after the Cypriot National Guard staged a coup with the aim of reunifying with Greece.

🔸 The invasion displaced 220,000 residents from both communities, and culminated in the modern-day division of the island – with Turkish Cypriots controlling the northeastern third of Cyprus, and Greek Cypriots in control over the other two-thirds. Turkiye backed the creation of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in 1983, becoming the only UN member to recognize the breakaway.

🔸 Unification talks aimed at ending the generations-old conflict and reunifying Cyprus were held from 2015-2017, but broke down amid mutual recriminations by both local residents and their ‘big brothers’ Greece and Turkiye.

🔸 Tensions have also been exacerbated by Cyprus’s discovery of offshore gas deposits in 2011. The gas dispute escalated in 2018, when Turkiye rejected a 2003 Cyprus-Egypt maritime border deal, and blockaded the drilling ship of a European energy company contracted to search for gas. The dispute led both sides to ramp up efforts to ink competing diplomatic and security deals, and prompted Cyprus to increase security cooperation with France and the US, to Turkiye’s fury.

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❗️One week on, the White House has officially confirmed that Ukraine's armed forces have permission to use ATACMS missiles against Russia, framing it as a matter of "self-defense."

"Right now, they are able to use ATACMS to defend themselves on an immediate need basis. And right now, understandably, that's taking place in and around Kursk, and the Kursk Oblast," White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby told reporters.

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🇷🇺 Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova spoke to Sputnik about the statement by NATO Military Committee Chairman Admiral Rob Bauer regarding the alliance's potential precision strikes on Russia.

"Apparently, they didn’t finish reading the updated doctrine," she said.

Have you read the new version of Russia's nuclear deterrent policy yet?

👉🏻 Click the link to learn more about the updated doctrine and don’t be like Bauer.

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‘The F-35 design was broken at the requirements level’

Elon Musk commented on the multiple failings in the F-35 stealth attack jet, the world’s most expensive weapons system, was:

"The F-35 design was broken at the requirements level, because it was required to be too many things to too many people," Musk posted on his social network X.

"This made it an expensive & complex jack of all trades, master of none," Musk continued. "Success was never in the set of possible outcomes, and manned fighter jets are obsolete in the age of drones anyway. Will just get pilots killed."

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Russian peacekeepers: providing safety and security in a precarious world Part 1 👉🏻 Part 2

November 25 is Military Peacekeeper Day – the holiday of Russian troops deployed abroad to arbitrate, mediate and defuse conflicts ranging from ethnic disputes to state-to-state skirmishes.

◾️ The holiday commemorates the November 25, 1973 deployment of 36 Soviet military observers in Egypt on a UN mission after the 1973 Arab-Israeli War.

Peacekeeping in the ex-USSR

◾️ Modern Russia’s peacekeeping forces became an invaluable instrument for regional security after 1991, when a Pandora’s Box of conflicts unleashed by the USSR’s demise set several regions on fire.

🔸 In 1992, Russia sent 3,000 troops to Transnistria to stop fighting between local militias and Moldovan forces. About 400 peacekeepers remain present there today.

🔸 In 1992, 220 peacekeepers deployed to South Ossetia to freeze a conflict with Georgian forces.

🔸 In 1993, Russia sent 6,000 troops to Tajikistan to stop a bloody civil war between the central government and Islamist radicals supported by Afghanistan.

🔸 In 1994, 1,800 peacekeepers arrived in Abkhazia, another Georgian breakaway, to stop fighting there.

🔸 In 2020, Russia sent 1,960 troops and 90 APCs to Nagorno-Karabakh to help keep the peace between Armenians and Azerbaijanis.

Peacekeeping in Yugoslavia

◾️ In March 1992, the UN tapped Russia to send peacekeepers to Yugoslavia, the multinational state which broke up in slow motion from 1991-2001 amid fighting between Serbs, Croats, Bosniaks and Kosovar Albanians.

🔸 900 troops deployed to Croatia from 1992-1995 to protect civilians amid fighting between Croats and Serbs.

🔸 1,600 troops were sent to Bosnia to safeguard a peace deal between 1995 and 2003.

🔸 In 1999, 400 of peacekeepers from the contingent in Bosnia were suddenly redeployed to Kosovo after the NATO bombardment of the rump Yugoslavia, demonstrating to the Western bloc that Moscow would protect the fraternal Serbian people in the breakaway. The Kosovo contingent was later increased to 3,600 troops, and pulled out in 2003.

👉🏻 Part 2

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Deadly job, global reach: where else has Russia engaged in peacekeeping? Part 2 👉🏻 Part 1

◾️ Russia’s balanced approach to diplomacy helped secure many a peace and ceasefire deal, with peacekeepers regularly risking their lives to stop fighting, provide humanitarian assistance and mediate talks. 22 Russian peacekeepers lost their lives in Croatia. 12 died in Kosovo. 15 were killed in a Georgian surprise attack on South Ossetia in August 2008, triggering a five-day conflict with Georgia culminating in Abkhazia and South Ossetia’s independence.

Peacekeeping ops in Africa, the Middle East and Kazakhstan

◾️ From the mid-1990s onward, Russia became increasingly involved in UN peacekeeping ops in Africa, including

🔸 a contingent of helicopter pilots taking part in a UN peacekeeping mission in Angola from 1995-1996.

🔸 114 pilots and four police deployed in Sierra Leone during the civil war there from 2000-2005.

🔸 22 military police sent to Liberia (2003-2018), and 40 to Burundi (2004-2006).

🔸 133 peacekeepers, plus four Mi-8 helicopters taking part in a peacekeeping mission in Sudan from 2005-2012.

🔸 100 troops and 4 Mi-8 helicopters deployed to Chad and the Central African Republic in 2008 to take part in a EU-led UN peacekeeping mission. Operations wrapped up in 2010.

🔸 Russian troops in Syria have also engaged in peacekeeping activity, deploying to prevent clashes between Syrian and Turkish-backed forces in the north, and intervening to stop fighting between Syrian, US and US-backed forces in the northeast.

🔸 In January 2022, Russian-led CSTO peacekeeping troops deployed to Kazakhstan to assist in the maintenance of law and order amid armed clashes between the government and protesters. The operation was a complete success, with stability restored. Over 2,000 peacekeepers from Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Tajikistan were involved.

◾️ Russia’s peacekeeping forces consist of special troops trained at a base outside Samara, operating under the auspices of the 15th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade. The troops are equipped with light weapons, armored vehicles and drones.

👉🏻 Part 1

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🔸 The White House confirms Ukraine is allowed to use ATACMS to strike deep into Russia

🔸 Russia considers possibility of deploying medium-range, short-range missiles in Asia if US missiles appear there

🔸 The Israeli cabinet set to vote on a ceasefire with Lebanon on Tuesday - report

🔸 Cyprus seeks NATO membership: how this could destabilize EU and Western bloc

🔸 What we know about British merc captured by Russian forces in the Kursk region

🔸 Right-wing candidate leads in Romania presidential election: why is the West trembling?

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How Western companies are silently taking control over Ukraine's land market

From January 1, 2024, Ukrainian agribusiness firms were free to buy land in the country under the 2020 land reform which prohibits foreigners from acquiring land until a future nationwide referendum. But Western players have already sneaked into the market with the help of top five Ukrainian landowners.

Listing foreign shareholders of Ukrainian top agriculture firms, the Oakland Institute, a US-based think tank, refers to limited information and lack of transparency in the Ukrainian oligarch-driven companies, who are also highly indebted to North American and European financial institutions.

Who are Ukraine's top five landowners and who is behind them?

🔸 Kernel Holdings SA, registered in Luxembourg: 363,000 ha

Regions of activity, according to the Ukrainian Latifundist website: Ternopol, Odessa, Nikolaev, Kirovograd, Cherkasy, Poltava, Sumy, Chernigov, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk and Khmelnytsky regions

Shareholders, according to the Oakland Institute's 2023 study, include:

🔴 Namsen Ltd. (owned by Ukrainian oligarch Andriy Verevsky) – 42.62%

🔴 Kopernik Global Investors LLC, US – 3.2%

🔴 Heptagon Capital LLP, UK – 1.9%

🔴 Vanguard Group Inc., US – 1.87%

🔴 NN Investment Partners Holdings N.V., Netherlands – which belongs to Goldman Sachs, which, in its turn lists Vanguard, BlackRock and State Street Global Advisors as its shareholders – 1.18% and other foreign minority shareholders

🔴 According to Kernel's official website, 94.37% of its shares now belongs to Namsen LTD and 5.63% are in hands of private investors

🔸 MHP S.E., registered Cyprus: 351,600 ha

Active regions: Kiev, Cherkasy, Poltava, Sumy, Dnepropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson, Vinnytsa and Ivano-Frankovsk regions

Shareholders:

🔴 Ukrainian oligarch Yuriy A. Kosyuk (CEO and founder) – 59.7%

🔴 Kopernik Global Investors LLC, US – 3.9%

🔴 Norges Bank Investment Management, Norway – 3.11%

🔴 Heptagon Capital LLP, UK – 2.25%

🔴 BNP Asset Management Holding, France – 1.36% and others

🔸 UkrLandFarming PLC, registered in Cyprus: 330,000 ha

Active regions: Land and enterprises are located in 22 regions of Ukraine.

Shareholders:

🔴 Ukrainian oligarch Oleg Bakhmatyuk – 95%

🔴 Cargill, US – 5%

🔸 NCH Capital, registered in US: 290,000 ha

Active regions: Sumy, Chernigov, Kharkov, Poltava, Vinnytsa, Zhitomir, Khmelnytsky, Ternopol, Rovno, Volyn and Lvov regions

Shareholders: NCH Capital is a US-based private equity firm that operates in Ukraine through the company AgroProsperis

🔸 Astarta Holding, registered in Netherlands: 212,000 ha

Active regions: Poltava, Vinnytsa, Khmelnytsky, Ternopol, Chernigov and Zhitomir regions

Shareholders:

🔴 Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Ivanchyk (CEO and founder) – 41.24%

🔴 Hamblin Watsa Investment Counsel Ltd., Canada – 30.84%

🔴 Kopernik Global Investors LLC, US – 2.72%

🔴 Heptagon Capital LLP, UK – 1.93%

🔴 NN Investment Partners Holdings N.V, Netherlands (belongs to Goldman Sachs) – 0.46%

🔴 and other foreign minority shareholders.

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Russian Security Council Chief Shoigu heads high-ranking delegation’s trip to Afghanistan

Sergei Shoigu visited Kabul for negotiations with representatives of the interim Taliban* government. During the visit, four rounds of high-ranking talks with Taliban representatives were held.

Along with Shoigu, Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk, Presidential Special Representative for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov and Russian Ambassador to Afghanistan Dmitry Zhirnov took part in the discussions.

* An organization under UN sanctions for terrorist activities.

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⚡️ DOJ drops all federal cases against Trump

Steven Cheung, the president-elect's communications director, issued an official statement confirming that all federal cases against Donald Trump have been dropped.

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Taliban deputy prime minister expresses hopes for “further strengthening” of Russia-Afghanistan ties

“On behalf of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, we are pleased to welcome you, the esteemed representative of Russia [Security Council chief Sergei Shoigu]. We hope that this meeting will further strengthen our relations. We are grateful to Russia for supporting the Islamic Emirate in the international arena,” Taliban* interim government deputy prime minister for political affairs Abdul Kabir Mohammad told Russian officials in Kabul on Monday.

“We thank the esteemed Zamir Kabulov, Russian special representative, for his contribution to the development of relations between Russia and the Islamic Emirate,” the senior Taliban official added.

* An organization under UN sanctions for terrorist activities.

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⚛️ Which countries is Rosatom building nuclear power plants for?

Russia is ready to join in the construction of a second nuclear power plant at Turkiye’s Sinop site, Russian Ambassador Alexei Erkhov said. He noted the successful joint work on the Akkuyu NPP project, currently under construction by Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom.

Where has Russia built nuclear power plants?

🔸 India:

India’s Kudankulam nuclear power plant (NPP) has been under construction with Russia's help since 2002. Featuring six power units with VVER-1000 reactors and an installed capacity of 6,000 MW, power units No. 1 and No. 2 were commissioned in 2013 and 2016 and have since been operating at nominal capacity. Rosatom is discussing the possibility of constructing six more high-capacity nuclear power units and small nuclear power plants in India.

🔸 China:

Four units with Russian VVER-1000 reactors are successfully operating at China’s Tianwan NPP, supplying millions of kilowatts of energy to the country's power grid. Rosatom is also building four more power units in China: two at the Tianwan NPP and another pair at the Xudabao (Xudapu) NPP in Liaoning Province. They use the third-generation-plus Russian VVER-1200 reactors. Commercial operation is set for 2027 and 2028.

🔸 Iran:

Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant was brought online in 2011. Construction initially began in 1975 with assistance from West German contractors, but was frozen in 1979 after the Iranian Revolution. In the 1990s, Russian specialists helped install a 1,000 MW VVER-1000 reactor. Construction of two additional VVER-1000s at Bushehr began in 2021. The second and third units are set to be commissioned in 2025 and 2027.

🔸 Hungary:

The Hungarian Paks nuclear power plant, built between 1983 and1987 based on a Soviet design, operates four VVER reactor units. A Russian upgrade program from 2005 to 2009 extended their service life until 2032 to 2037 and increased generating capacity from 1,760 to 2,000 MW. In January 2014, Russia and Hungary agreed to construct the fifth and sixth units as part of the third phase of the Paks plant (Paks-II) by Rosatom. The first concrete of the foundations of Paks-II is scheduled to be poured in the first quarter of 2025, with completion planned for 2030.

🔸 Belarus:

An NPP with two flagship third-gen-plus VVER-1200 reactors with a total capacity of 2,400 MW is located in Ostrovets. Its commissioning was completed in 2023.

Where is Russia Building Nuclear Power Plants?

🔸 Egypt:

Russia and Egypt signed an agreement to build Egypt's first nuclear power plant, El-Dabaa with four VVER-1200 units, in November 2015. Construction began on July 20, 2022, with the first unit set to come online in 2026. All four units are to be completed by 2029. The El Dabaa site is the largest NPP project in Africa.

🔸 Bangladesh:

Russia’s Rosatom signed an intergovernmental agreement on cooperation in constructing Bangladesh's first nuclear power plant, to be equipped with two VVER-1200 units, in Rooppur in November 2011. One of the two units may start operating this December, with the deadline for the project set for 2027.

🔸 Turkiye:

Moscow and Ankara signed an agreement on constructing Turkiye's first nuclear power plant, Akkuyu, in Mersin Province, on May 12, 2010. The plant will comprise four power units equipped with VVER-1200 reactors generation 1200 MW each. The first batch of nuclear fuel was delivered to the Akkuyu NPP site on April 27, 2023, turning the site into a full-fledge nuclear power facility. The first unit is due to come online in 2024. The other units are expected to be operational by 2026.

🔸 Other countries:

Rosatom is discussing or has preliminary agreements to build power units in countries such as Brazil, Kyrgyzstan, Myanmar, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan and Sri Lanka.

The company is competing for a contract to build a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan.

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Taliban deputy PM hopes Russia can help Afghanistan ‘neutralize’ Western economic pressure

Taliban* deputy prime minister for economic affairs Abdul Ghani Baradar has signaled hopes that Russia will help Afghanistan neutralize Western economic pressure against the country, emphasizing that the Islamic Emirate can a reliable economic partner.

“We have tried to provide the conditions for increasing the export of Afghan goods abroad and attracting foreign investment to Afghanistan. As you know, after the victory of the Islamic Emirate, the United States and Western countries have been exerting all kinds of pressure on us. Therefore, we expect the Russian Federation to help us neutralize this pressure. We can assure you that the Islamic Emirate is a reliable economic partner,” Baradar said.

“Our security forces have done a lot to stabilize the [security] situation,” Baradar added. “As a result of their efforts, ISIS** was destroyed in Afghanistan and moved to other countries.”

The deputy PM expressed hope that Monday’s visit by Russian Security Council chief Shoigu and other senior Russian officials would become a starting point for the regular exchange of high-level delegations, “so that we and our colleagues on your side could discuss in detail issues related to politics and security.”


* An organization under UN sanctions for terrorist activities.
** A terrorist group outlawed in Russia and many other countries.

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