Is ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah actually possible?

More than a year since the beginning of the latest escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, and nearly two months since the launch of Tel Aviv's invasion of Lebanon, several media outlets report today that a ceasefire may soon be achieved.

The ceasefire plan, actively pushed by the US and brokered by France, has ostensibly been approved by the Lebanese side and may soon be approved by Tel Aviv, if these reports are to be believed.

While some foreign powers like the US seek to broker a ceasefire and end this conflict, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and the coalition of “neo-Zionist, ultra-right and religious” Israeli parties he represents are not interested in such a deal, warns Tel Aviv-based international relations expert Dr. Simon Tsipis.

According to him, Israel would only agree to a ceasefire if southern Lebanon were to be ceded to Israel.

“The goal is to capture southern Lebanon and to gradually annex it, thus expanding Israel’s borders,” Dr. Tsipis explains. “So in this context, the current [Israeli] government is not interested in any peaceful resolution with Lebanon.”

Though Lebanon already offered a number of concessions to Israel – such as, for example, offering to crack down on Hezbollah and even establishing a buffer zone in southern Lebanese regions – Tsipis suggests that Netanyahu will probably stall the peace process to the last in an effort to gain as many “dividends” as possible from both Lebanon and the US.

Regarding the Biden administration’s efforts to negotiate a ceasefire as soon as possible, Dr. Tsipis argues that the US Democrats are pursuing two goals, one of them being acquiring a reputation of peacemakers for the next presidential election.

The second, much more important goal, he claims, is to make the situation in the Middle East as complicated as possible so that the Trump administration would spend all of its four years in power to “untangle” the ensuing mess.

At the same time, Dr. Tsipis postulates, the Arab Sunni states who looked to normalize their relations with Israel via the Abraham Accords during Trump’s first presidency may not like the idea of Israel normalizing relations with Lebanon, because it may potentially lead to a normalization between Israel and Iran.

As for Netanyahu, Tsipis says that the Israeli prime minister is unwilling to agree to a ceasefire because it would make him appear to be a traitor in the eyes of the Israeli right-wing “radicals” who regard Lebanon as an enemy, and because it would make him look like a weak politician who caved in to the US Democrats’ pressure.

“This treaty, I believe, will not be signed until Trump takes office. And if it does get signed, I suspect that Israel will end up violating it in various ways,” Tsipis remarks, pointing out that a lot depends on whether Netanyahu himself manages to stay in power.

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F-35 is modern Rube Goldberg machine, Musk is right to criticize it – former Pentagon analyst

"The F-35 design was broken at the requirements level because it was required to be too many things to too many people," tweeted Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who was picked by President-elect Donald Trump to co-lead the new Department of Government Efficiency. "Manned fighter jets are obsolete in the age of drones anyway. Will just get pilots killed," he added.

Musk is correct in his assessment of the Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter, retired US Air Force Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski, a former Pentagon analyst, tells Sputnik.

"The F-35 is very nearly a modern Rube Goldberg machine [a contraption that does a very basic job in a complicated way - Sputnik] - with many parts that drive whole new requirements, and new remedies," Kwiatkowski says.

The program will cost more than $2 trillion, becoming one of the most expensive in US history, according to the Government Accountability Office. Despite this, the US military continues to discover new technical risks that cost American taxpayers more money.

"[The F-35] was designed, much as the last tranches of US aid to Ukraine in the Biden administration, more of an exercise in consumption and waste as the current military leadership wonders how to get out of its 60 year productivity and performance rut," Kwiatkowski says.

The F-35 has repeatedly come under heavy criticism:

🔻X influencer Mario Nawfal appears to share Musk's skepticism: "China is building swarm drones," Nawfal tweeted. "Meanwhile some idiots are still building manned fighter jets like the F-35," he quoted Musk

🔻Matt Gaetz, a former US congressman and Trump pick for attorney general, called the F-35 "a $100 million paperweight" earlier this year

🔻Adam Smith, the Democratic chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, dubbed the F-35 a "rathole" in March 2021.

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⚡️ Israeli cabinet approves ceasefire agreement with Lebanon, it will take effect on Wednesday at 8:00 GMT

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How foreign powers meddle in the Israeli-Lebanese peace process

France and Britain have become deeply involved in the current Israeli-Lebanese ceasefire negotiations, says Tel Aviv-based international relations expert Dr. Simon Tsipis.

“All these months, France has been trying to squeeze into the negotiation process between Israel and Lebanon, for obvious reason: Lebanon is a former French colony,” he explains, noting that Paris still has the ability to influence processes in Lebanon, to a degree.

He points out, however, that France adopted a rather strange approach to this matter. While trying to offer itself as an intermediary for the Israeli-Lebanese negotiations, Paris simultaneously bars Israeli weapon manufacturers from participating in a major arms expo in France – a move that is unlikely to endear France to Israel.

Meanwhile, Britain seeks to operate behind the scenes, trying to use the US Democrats and the Biden administration to pressure Israel, Dr. Tsipis notes.

When London’s efforts fail, however, it imposes an arms embargo against Israel to punish Tel Aviv for pursuing a policy that does not take the interests of US Democrats and “Anglo-Saxons” into account.

“It is the policy of ultra-right radicals, Zionists, who try to capture and annex land,” Tsipis elaborates. “They don’t even try to hide it. Thy declare that next year they are going to annex territories where Palestinians currently live.”

Such annexation, he notes, would further exacerbate the refugee crisis and create new problems for the UK with its sizeable Muslim society.

Therefore, Tsipis says, all of the foreign parties he mentioned – France, Britain and the US – would like to have Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ousted as soon as possible whereas the latter knows it and actively resists their efforts to topple him.

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Israeli security minister: Ceasefire with Lebanon is a 'historic mistake'

Itamar Ben-Gvir has described a ceasefire agreement with Lebanon as a "historic mistake" that fails to achieve a key goal of the war in the north - the return of tens of thousands of evacuated residents to their homes.

"In order to leave Lebanon, we must have our own security belt. We have already seen it, that we must not trust anyone but ourselves. Otherwise, the missiles will be launched at Manara, Avivim, Kiryat Shmona, the entire north and the entire State of Israel, and finally we will have to return to Lebanon again," he added.

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Meanwhile, Israel and Hezbollah continue to exchange rocket attacks

The Israeli Air Force carried out several strikes on targets in Beirut. Sputnik's correspondent captured a moment when a missile hit an exchange office.

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Biden delivers remarks on Israel-Lebanon ceasefire

The governments of Israel and Lebanon have accepted the US proposal to end the conflict, the US President announced in his statement. Here are the main points of his speech:

🔸 The agreement, effective at 4 am local time on Wednesday, will end the fighting across the border.

🔸 Over 60 days, the Israeli army will gradually withdraw its forces from Lebanon. The Lebanese army will regain control of the southern border.

🔸 Hezbollah will not be allowed to rebuild its infrastructure. Israel retains its right to self-defense "consistent with international law".

🔸 US will make another push to reach a ceasefire deal in Gaza, together with Turkey, Egypt, Qatar and Israel.


Meanwhile, Rep. Mike Waltz claimed that the ceasefire deal was possible because of Donald Trump.

"Everyone is coming to the table because of President Trump. His resounding victory sent a clear message to the rest of the world that chaos won’t be tolerated. I’m glad to see concrete steps towards deescalation in the Middle East," he wrote on X.

A White House official speaking to reporters denied Trump's involvement in drafting the ceasefire agreement, but said he had briefed President-elect Trump's senior national security team on the terms of the deal.

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Trump, Biden sign memorandum to begin official transition process

President-elect Donald Trump has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Joe Biden administration to begin official transition preparations, incoming Chief of Staff Susie Wiles said Tuesday.

"This engagement allows our intended Cabinet nominees to begin critical preparations, including the deployment of landing teams to every department and agency, and complete the orderly transition of power," Wiles said in a statement.

The statement emphasized that the transition team will save taxpayer money by not using the budget option and instead operating on donations, in line with Trump's previous pledge.

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US has no claims over Turkiye's use of S-400s - Defense Minister

Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler said that the United States has no remaining complaints against Ankara over the use of Russian S-400 air defense systems.

"All the points are defined, everything is ready for us to use the S-400. All it takes is an order from us and the system will be moved to a certain region, in 12 hours the entire system will be fully installed, we will use it, and the air defense will be at the highest level," he said in a statement to parliament.

In 2017, Turkiye signed a contract with Russia for the delivery of a regimental set of S-400s. At the same time, the US demanded to abandon the Russian systems in favor of Patriot, but Ankara did not agree to this. As punishment, the US excluded Turkiye from the F-35 delivery program and imposed sanctions on the country's military-industrial complex.

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Pentagon didn't fully analyze ATACMS missile use in Russia - Hersh

The Pentagon hasn't analyzed the consequences of letting Ukraine use US-made ATACMS missiles and land mines, says investigative journalist Seymour Hersh.

"I have been told that the strategic implications of the president's escalation — both [US President Joe] Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have nuclear bombs at their fingertips — had not been fully analyzed inside the Pentagon, and that some important offices, sure to have different views about escalation, were never asked for their input," Hersh wrote on his Substack blog.

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Terrorists in Mali receive white phosphorus ammunition from Ukraine - reports

Ukraine supplies terrorist groups in Mali with white phosphorus ammunition banned by international law, aBamako portal reported, citing a statement by a captured militant.

“This evening, a captured militant said that his group received from Ukraine shells with white phosphorus of 120 millimeters caliber for Soviet 2B11 mortars,” the portal said Tuesday.

According to the portal, images of these munitions and the consequences of their use were published by resources close to the al-Qaeda* terrorist group.

*terrorist organization banned in Russia

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"We don't know what he's going to say!": CBS shies away from interviewing Musk

In the fall of 2023, CBS executives turned down an opportunity to interview Elon Musk live, because they wanted to have the ability to edit the final product viewers would see, according to Catherine Herridge.

"Isn't that the point of journalism? You don't know what the person's going to say," Herridge noted.

The story also drew comment from Elon Musk:

"Only DNC-approved news allowed on CBS 😂"

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