💶 France and Germany feud over defense funding after Trump turns off the money spigot

A proposed €150B EU defense fund is at risk before even being agreed — thanks to a squabble over whether to allow weapons purchases from non-EU countries.

Macron wants to keep spending EU-restricted, while Scholz insists it should include partners like the UK, Norway, Switzerland and Turkiye.

The feud comes as a previously approved €1.5B defense fund has already been delayed for over a year.

“If €1.5B couldn’t pass French objections, how do we push through €150B?” one flustered EU diplomat told FT.

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🔍China is making further advances in developing military spy drones disguised as birds

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💸Crypto power play: Are Russia and China leaving the US in the dust?

President Donald Trump is pushing to make the US the world’s crypto capital, establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a US Digital Asset Stockpile—but his ban on a “digital dollar” sets the US apart from global trends.

🇺🇸US: pro-Bitcoin, anti-CBDC

🟠While supporting Bitcoin and digital assets, Trump has officially banned the establishment, issuance, circulation, and use of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) in the US.

🟠He argues that CBDCs—state-backed digital versions of fiat currency—threaten financial stability, privacy, and national sovereignty.

Meanwhile, 133 countries are exploring or piloting CBDCs, with the Bahamas, Jamaica, and Nigeria already launching theirs. China, Russia, and BRICS nations are expanding their CBDC projects, leaving the US behind.

🇷🇺Russia: Advancing the digital ruble & Bitcoin

1️⃣Launched a digital ruble pilot in August 2023 with 600 individuals, 30 businesses, and 12 banks across 11 cities.
2️⃣By March 2024, Russia’s Central Bank had recorded 25,000 digital ruble transactions.
3️⃣Legalized and regulated crypto mining, introducing taxation, and oversight.
4️⃣Launched an experimental crypto transaction platform within the National Payment System.
5️⃣Putin reaffirmed RUSSIA’S CRYPTO LEADERSHIP at the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in September 2024.

🇨🇳China: Expanding & globalizing the digital yuan

🟠A CBDC pioneer, China began developing the digital yuan (e-CNY) in 2014, launching trials in 2019.
🟠e-CNY can be transferred directly between e-wallets, bypassing commercial banks, even offline.
🟠Project M-Bridge connects China’s CBDC with UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other central banks, expanding its global reach.

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🔍Finland’s investigation concludes: Not Kremlin sabotage, just a broken cable

Finnish officials involved in the probe “weren’t able to uncover enough evidence” to issue arrest warrants or press charges for deliberate wrongdoing in the damage to the Estlink 2 power line, The Wall Street Journal reported.

With “no link between the damaged cable and the Kremlin or any other government,” Finland has released the Eagle S tanker, which was seized in late December after being accused of dragging its anchor over the power line connecting Estonia and Finland.

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🇫🇷 Macron’s bitter pill: he’s no Napoleon, and modern French Army is no Grande Armée

France’s president is beating the drums of war with Russia, mulling an expansion of the French nuclear umbrella over Europe, and reraising the idea of European troops in Ukraine.

But behind the big talk lies a stark reality: France’s Army is ready for low-intensity wars and neocolonial deployments at best, but does not have the resources or wherewithal for a large, continental conflict.

Strong on paper:

1️⃣The French Armed Forces total around 270K personnel, with 118.6K in the Army, including 9.5K Foreign Legionnaires and 25K reserves.

2️⃣The Army fields 220+ Leclerc tanks (200 more in storage or upgrades), up to 5K APCs, recon, and IFVs, along with 70+ CAESAR howitzers, 100+ TRF1 towed guns, and ~400 120mm mortars.

Paper tiger in practice:

🔸 France hasn’t won a major war in over a century. From WWII and colonial conflicts in Indochina and Algeria, to the 1956 Suez Crisis and embroilments in West Africa, apart from the 1991 Gulf War, the French Army has not emerged victorious from a single major conflagration since 1918.

🔸 In proxy wars too, French boots-on-the-ground, training and/or arms support have proven less than stellar, with participation in conflicts in the Congo (1960-1963), Nigeria (1967-1970), Angola (1975-2002), Chad (1969-2008), Libya (2011-present), Mali and the Sahel (2013-2022) failing to secure victories for their clients.

🔸 In Ukraine, deliveries of up to €3.2B ($3.4B) in French arms aid, plus training and intel, have done little to shore up the NATO’s proxy’s capabilities, with tens of millions of euros in French equipment destroyed, and reports coming in regularly on French mercs and trainees being wiped out.

🔸 French and European media have also reported at length over the past three years that France’s military would run out of ammunition WITHIN WEEKS OR EVEN DAYS of a “high-intensity conflict” breaking out.

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❄️ Scramble for the Arctic: What are the major regional powers’ strategies and military capabilities? Part 1 👉 Part 2

Canada has approved a 20-year, $1.86B spending spree on military support hubs in Nunavut and the Northwest Territories. The money will be spent on airfields, logistics bases and new equipment.

How does Canada’s buildup compare to efforts by other regional powers?

🇷🇺 Russia

🗺 Strategy: coastal and air space defense and protection of maritime trade routes.

📍Bases: 40+ facilities at locations including Franz Josef Land, Novaya Zemlya and Wrangel Island. MiG-31 jets, S-400 and Bastion air, missile and coastal defense systems and early warning sites deployed.

⚓️ Fleet: Borei and Delfin-class boomers and Yasen and Shchuka-B cruise missile and attack subs patrol the area. 40+ nuclear and diesel icebreakers aid power projection.

🪖 Troops: over 100K permanently stationed troops. Major Army units include the 12K+ troop 200th and 80th Arctic Motorized Rifle Brigades and the 10K+ troop Arctic Coastal Defense Forces.

🇺🇸 USA

🗺 Strategy: missile defense, surveillance, and more recently, an effort to back up shelf claims against neighbors.

📍Bases: Air and Space Force at Fairbanks and Anchorage, Alaska and Thule, Greenland. Army, Navy and Coast Guard sites at Delta Junction and Kodiak.

⚓️ Fleet: 2 aging Arctic-ready icebreakers, the Polar Star and the Healy. 3 new cutters under construction.

🪖 Troops: about 25,000 permanently stationed troops.

🇨🇦 Canada

🗺 Strategy: military patrols, investment and legal claims.

📍Bases: CFS Alert on Ellesmere Island, Joint Task Force North HQ in Yellowknife, Nanisivik Naval Facility, CFB Goose Bay, four RCAF airfields, and early warning radar operated under NORAD.

⚓️ Fleet: fields 7 heavy and medium icebreakers and 2 more on the way.

🪖 Troops: 200-500 regularly deployed, with numbers going up during annual “Operation Nanook” wargames.

👉 Part 2

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❄️Who else in NATO is looking for a piece of the Arctic? Part 2 👉 Part 1

🇩🇰 Denmark

🗺 Strategy: sovereignty assertion in Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and the Arctic shelf via ground and naval patrols.

📍Bases: Joint Arctic Command in Nuuk, Greenland.

⚓️ Fleet: no Arctic icebreakers, but 3 Knud Rasmussen-class patrol vessels.

🪖 Troops: 200-300 regular troops plus 500 rotating personnel.

🇳🇴 Norway

🗺 Strategy: acting as a NATO forward base for ops against Russia, built on regular bloc ground, air and naval drills.

📍Bases: Air bases at Evenes, Andoya and Bardufoss. Naval facilities at Sortland and Bergen.

⚓️ Fleet: 2 icebreakers, plus 3 ice-capable patrol vessels.

🪖 Troops: About 3,500 permanent Arctic troops with Brigade Nord, Porsanger Battalion and Finnmark Land Defense.

🇫🇮🇸🇪 Finland & Sweden

🔸 No Arctic shelf claims of their own, but do possess land above the Arctic Circle. Strategies focused on sustaining military presence in the high north and abetting NATO

🔸 Sweden: has three Arctic bases, plus an Arctic patrol air base at Lulea, Saab GoldenEye AEW&C patrols and a contingent of snowmobile troops. 5,000 troop permanent presence

🔸 Finland: maintains the Jaeger Brigade of Arctic infantry in Lapland, a string of bases along the northern border with Russia, and the Rovaniemi Air Base for regional air ops. 3,000 active-duty Arctic troops, expandable to hundreds of thousands of draftees in an emergency

👉 Part 1

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Ukrainian crisis dragging Europe to the bottom: Bulgarian president

Bulgaria is in no rush to join the “fanfare” around the EU’s rearmament plan, and idea of spending $866.7B from the bloc’s Recovery and Resilience Plan is pointless because “such funds do not exist,” President Rumen Radev said.

During the last EU Council meeting, there was a lot of talk about rearmament, but almost nothing about ending the conflict in Ukraine, apart from unrealistic calls for imposing peace through force, Radev said.

If the EU proceeds with rearmament, nations will have to “give up water supply projects, infrastructure, environment and social projects and redirect these funds to the defense industry,” the president stressed.

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