🐳Cryptocurrency Trading Volumes Approaching Year-to-Date Highs🐳
Hello everyone,
The current price of Bitcoin is $3914 (Bitmex pricing), with 24 hour volume leveling at 8.6 billion USD.
Bitcoin is showing off both impressive price action and its sustained volume over the course of the past 48 hours. 🦍🥰
Our bias remains unchanged from Monday. We believe the reversal for $BTC is gaining momentum, which should allow crypto to remain profitable for at least the next 1-2 weeks! 🤑
We are not sure if $BTC will need to cool off here, or if it is ready to attempt $4000-4100 resistance (see chart below).
Ultimately, we think the addressed resistance level will be taken out in the coming days. The volume levels across the market are strong, leading us to our reasoning.
Let’s take a closer look at exactly how much volume has been flowing into crypto since the major price spike on Monday:
The last three days of cryptocurrency trading volume, recorded via coinmarketcap, is the highest three day stretch of volume since late April of 2018, and the second highest stretch in the past 365 days 😲
Volume of this magnitude is nothing short of impressive. With all that has occurred since the last bull market, some incumbents are surprised by what’s happening.
That being said, we are not out of the woods. 2018-2019 lows could still be met. But at this point, we’re confident the market has changed from a distribution phase to an accumulation phase.
We will continue to update you as price action continues to develop.
Hello everyone,
The current price of Bitcoin is $3914 (Bitmex pricing), with 24 hour volume leveling at 8.6 billion USD.
Bitcoin is showing off both impressive price action and its sustained volume over the course of the past 48 hours. 🦍🥰
Our bias remains unchanged from Monday. We believe the reversal for $BTC is gaining momentum, which should allow crypto to remain profitable for at least the next 1-2 weeks! 🤑
We are not sure if $BTC will need to cool off here, or if it is ready to attempt $4000-4100 resistance (see chart below).
Ultimately, we think the addressed resistance level will be taken out in the coming days. The volume levels across the market are strong, leading us to our reasoning.
Let’s take a closer look at exactly how much volume has been flowing into crypto since the major price spike on Monday:
The last three days of cryptocurrency trading volume, recorded via coinmarketcap, is the highest three day stretch of volume since late April of 2018, and the second highest stretch in the past 365 days 😲
Volume of this magnitude is nothing short of impressive. With all that has occurred since the last bull market, some incumbents are surprised by what’s happening.
That being said, we are not out of the woods. 2018-2019 lows could still be met. But at this point, we’re confident the market has changed from a distribution phase to an accumulation phase.
We will continue to update you as price action continues to develop.
🏦$BTC Showing Strength as Crypto Goes Green🏦
Hello everyone,
Bitcoin is now trading at $3825 (Bitmex). Its volume for the day is healthy, leveling at 9.6 billion USD. The market is in an interesting state, providing little technical clarity as to which direction it is headed. However, we are observing key technicals that suggest bulls are at work.
First and foremost, volume has flooded back into the crypto markets. Outside of a 2-week stretch occurring in April and May of last year, volume is experiencing yearly highs 📈.
The price during the aforementioned stretch occurred when $BTC ran from $6k-9k. We are seeing this heightened level of volume while price is still resting near bear market lows. In our opinion, this shows a shift from distribution to accumulation, as buyers have ultimately stepped in to begin increasing their exposure to crypto.
As we have pointed out, we believe it is important for $BTC to maintain the 50DMA as resistance turned to support (see chart below👇). While Bitcoin briefly lost this level yesterday, buyers have stepped in with significant volume to retake the 50DMA 🏦.
A daily close above $3750 would indicate re-established support at that level.
Our team has also noticed great follow through on the weekly MACD. We originally pointed out, to all of you, that we were beginning to notice a bullish crossover on the weekly-MACD in early February. So far, the continuation has been beautiful (see image below 👇). This, along with the histogram reaching highs that haven’t been achieved since January 2018, shows us strong confluence that a shift in market structure could be happening.
We have an extremely comprehensive analysis on this shift in market structure coming in the next few days so; stay tuned!
Hello everyone,
Bitcoin is now trading at $3825 (Bitmex). Its volume for the day is healthy, leveling at 9.6 billion USD. The market is in an interesting state, providing little technical clarity as to which direction it is headed. However, we are observing key technicals that suggest bulls are at work.
First and foremost, volume has flooded back into the crypto markets. Outside of a 2-week stretch occurring in April and May of last year, volume is experiencing yearly highs 📈.
The price during the aforementioned stretch occurred when $BTC ran from $6k-9k. We are seeing this heightened level of volume while price is still resting near bear market lows. In our opinion, this shows a shift from distribution to accumulation, as buyers have ultimately stepped in to begin increasing their exposure to crypto.
As we have pointed out, we believe it is important for $BTC to maintain the 50DMA as resistance turned to support (see chart below👇). While Bitcoin briefly lost this level yesterday, buyers have stepped in with significant volume to retake the 50DMA 🏦.
A daily close above $3750 would indicate re-established support at that level.
Our team has also noticed great follow through on the weekly MACD. We originally pointed out, to all of you, that we were beginning to notice a bullish crossover on the weekly-MACD in early February. So far, the continuation has been beautiful (see image below 👇). This, along with the histogram reaching highs that haven’t been achieved since January 2018, shows us strong confluence that a shift in market structure could be happening.
We have an extremely comprehensive analysis on this shift in market structure coming in the next few days so; stay tuned!
🏌️Bitcoin Swings Low as Most Digital Assets See Red🏌️♀️
After rallying to just about the $9000 mark, Bitcoin is leading a market-wide pullback that’s leaving many digital assets seeing red. Double digital losses against USD appear to be the norm for many of crypto’s most well-known properties including Tezos, Cardano, Cosmos, Ontology, Chainlink, and Bitcoin SV.
As of the time of writing, bitcoin is consolidating around $8400, having bounced off of $8100 with plenty of vigorous volume. Several days worth of incremental gains for many BTC paired alts have been wiped out in one fell swoop, but with the overall positive sentiment resounding market-wide, these losses reflect an emerging opportunity.
Bitcoin has wildly defied expectation in recent weeks, but we are increasingly convinced that a correction period is impending. The question is not if, but when. Confirmation of a correction cycle would depend on BTC breaking below $7900, then facing an $8000 resistance.
Our analysts uncovered that during previous parabolic bull run periods, bitcoin corrected violently – to the tune of 30%–40%. Since 2015, there have been seven instances of such corrections. The current bull run has risen unhindered, and while past performance is not indicative of future results, the likelihood of a correction cycle increases with every additional run up.
After rallying to just about the $9000 mark, Bitcoin is leading a market-wide pullback that’s leaving many digital assets seeing red. Double digital losses against USD appear to be the norm for many of crypto’s most well-known properties including Tezos, Cardano, Cosmos, Ontology, Chainlink, and Bitcoin SV.
As of the time of writing, bitcoin is consolidating around $8400, having bounced off of $8100 with plenty of vigorous volume. Several days worth of incremental gains for many BTC paired alts have been wiped out in one fell swoop, but with the overall positive sentiment resounding market-wide, these losses reflect an emerging opportunity.
Bitcoin has wildly defied expectation in recent weeks, but we are increasingly convinced that a correction period is impending. The question is not if, but when. Confirmation of a correction cycle would depend on BTC breaking below $7900, then facing an $8000 resistance.
Our analysts uncovered that during previous parabolic bull run periods, bitcoin corrected violently – to the tune of 30%–40%. Since 2015, there have been seven instances of such corrections. The current bull run has risen unhindered, and while past performance is not indicative of future results, the likelihood of a correction cycle increases with every additional run up.
Spotlight on IEOs
Welcome to the weekend!
Bitcoin has held on to the mid-$8000s in convincing fashion after properly bouncing up and away from $8100. Volume has remained in place with only a slight decrease from ATH levels being registered up to this point.
Given the looks of the market today, buyers aren’t ready to let a pullback begin in earnest just yet.
Some of the previous days biggest losers, such as EOS, have completely retraced their steps and then some, posting double-digit gains in the process.
As per usual, one obscure coin has vaulted from the darkness. Today, that coin is MonaCoin, a Japanese digital currency riding high on $243.7 million in volume.
As noted in yesterday’s update, we’re expecting a correction cycle that should see BTC retrace up to 40% from recent highs. However, we’re fluid on that point and will move with the market as needed.
Initial Exchange Offerings: The Second Coming of ICOs
The market’s recovery from the painful lows of last year and most of 2019 has everything to do with bitcoin’s rise from the ashes. Nonetheless, digital assets are meshed together by a sprawling tapestry of exchanges and a surplus of pairings that make crypto market dynamics incredibly complex.
Owing to the highly interconnected nature of crypto assets, it’s important to keep an eye on trends that are enabling the profits being poured into, and ultimately fueling, the current BTC bull run. The most notable amongst several potential trends is the IEO.
In 2017, the cryptocurrency market’s parabolic advance was almost singlehandedly shaped by an ICO market that was on fire. For an entire year, it seemed like there was simply no way to lose on an ICO investment, and the gains made by savvy traders helped moon blue chip crypto assets to untold heights.
As we all know, ICOs faded away big time. By the time the dust had settled and the bear market was thoroughly entrenched, the ICO market lay completely dormant, and most of the talk shifted to STOs (security token offerings). While STO railways like Harbor, Polymath, and Smartlands were built, another phenomenon was quietly taking shape.
Initial exchange offerings allow projects to fundraise directly on an exchange followed by a subsequent listing. There’s no need to wonder about the liquidity of a new project when it’s already been picked up by a major exchange beforehand. This sense of security, along with the project being vetted thoroughly by the exchange running the IEO, has brought investor confidence back to the crowd fundraising model pioneered by cryptocurrency.
We’ve seen spectacular gains made by Binance-backed IEOs in particular. FET, BTT, MATIC, and now ONE have all found themselves skyrocketing atop green candles aimed at the sky. Interestingly, even after decent time has passed, investor interest in IEO projects hasn’t waned – which goes to show that these projects have real staying power.
As such, we aren’t underestimating the sheer potential of the nascent IEO trend. Most IEO platforms like Binance’s Launchpad or KuCoin’s Spotlight have only gone live in recent months. IEOs haven’t hit their stride yet but they’re posting spectacular gains anyway, and are being fueled by a resurgent crypto market.
In 2017’s bull market, ICOs gave many new investors a headstart in the market and made for amazing returns that became the stuff of legend. With the bear market apparently behind us and IEOs throttling the market, we might be cruising into a similar period that is well worth paying attention to.
Welcome to the weekend!
Bitcoin has held on to the mid-$8000s in convincing fashion after properly bouncing up and away from $8100. Volume has remained in place with only a slight decrease from ATH levels being registered up to this point.
Given the looks of the market today, buyers aren’t ready to let a pullback begin in earnest just yet.
Some of the previous days biggest losers, such as EOS, have completely retraced their steps and then some, posting double-digit gains in the process.
As per usual, one obscure coin has vaulted from the darkness. Today, that coin is MonaCoin, a Japanese digital currency riding high on $243.7 million in volume.
As noted in yesterday’s update, we’re expecting a correction cycle that should see BTC retrace up to 40% from recent highs. However, we’re fluid on that point and will move with the market as needed.
Initial Exchange Offerings: The Second Coming of ICOs
The market’s recovery from the painful lows of last year and most of 2019 has everything to do with bitcoin’s rise from the ashes. Nonetheless, digital assets are meshed together by a sprawling tapestry of exchanges and a surplus of pairings that make crypto market dynamics incredibly complex.
Owing to the highly interconnected nature of crypto assets, it’s important to keep an eye on trends that are enabling the profits being poured into, and ultimately fueling, the current BTC bull run. The most notable amongst several potential trends is the IEO.
In 2017, the cryptocurrency market’s parabolic advance was almost singlehandedly shaped by an ICO market that was on fire. For an entire year, it seemed like there was simply no way to lose on an ICO investment, and the gains made by savvy traders helped moon blue chip crypto assets to untold heights.
As we all know, ICOs faded away big time. By the time the dust had settled and the bear market was thoroughly entrenched, the ICO market lay completely dormant, and most of the talk shifted to STOs (security token offerings). While STO railways like Harbor, Polymath, and Smartlands were built, another phenomenon was quietly taking shape.
Initial exchange offerings allow projects to fundraise directly on an exchange followed by a subsequent listing. There’s no need to wonder about the liquidity of a new project when it’s already been picked up by a major exchange beforehand. This sense of security, along with the project being vetted thoroughly by the exchange running the IEO, has brought investor confidence back to the crowd fundraising model pioneered by cryptocurrency.
We’ve seen spectacular gains made by Binance-backed IEOs in particular. FET, BTT, MATIC, and now ONE have all found themselves skyrocketing atop green candles aimed at the sky. Interestingly, even after decent time has passed, investor interest in IEO projects hasn’t waned – which goes to show that these projects have real staying power.
As such, we aren’t underestimating the sheer potential of the nascent IEO trend. Most IEO platforms like Binance’s Launchpad or KuCoin’s Spotlight have only gone live in recent months. IEOs haven’t hit their stride yet but they’re posting spectacular gains anyway, and are being fueled by a resurgent crypto market.
In 2017’s bull market, ICOs gave many new investors a headstart in the market and made for amazing returns that became the stuff of legend. With the bear market apparently behind us and IEOs throttling the market, we might be cruising into a similar period that is well worth paying attention to.
Bitcoin Shows Signs of Exhaustion After Historic Run
After a historic run that took bitcoin from the $3K’s to nearly $9000, the king of crypto is finally running on what seem to be tired legs 💤. Despite appearances, BTC does tend to do the unexpected, so it’s best to keep analyses dynamic and not fall into dogmatic ways of thinking.
Currently, BTC is trading at $7942 as it bounces just above 24-hour lows. Its sudden fall from the heights of the mid $8000 range is a sharp reminder that comfort is a trader’s worst enemy. Becoming complacent is a form of taking excessive risk, and taking excessive risks is a shortcut to getting rekt 🆘.
As bitcoin shot higher and higher, and the market entered a jubilant phase of micro-euphoria, we started looking to take risk off the table. The higher a digital asset climbs over a short timeframe, the greater the likelihood of a strong correction 📉.
We constantly stress the importance of proper risk management as a way to defend against giving hard-won gains back to the market 🛡. Part and parcel of appropriate risk management is skepticism – the more euphoric the retail trading crowd becomes, the greater should be your suspicion towards the continued upside of a given asset or market.
Last week, our analysts revealed a startling trend regarding correction cycles after parabolic bitcoin moves up. During seven previous BTC bull runs, violent corrections of up to 40% occurred just after they topped. As always, past performance is not indicative of future results, but after parsing through the data, we decided that reducing BTC exposure using a hedge short was the right call.
We shared that call along with real-time data and analysis with our private members several days ago. Current strong resistance stands at $8030, and a breakdown + close below the $7903 mark would signal a strong shorting opportunity. Should we break back above the $8030 mark, the chances of retesting the $8400-$8500 region are excellent – however, because there is a rising wedge present with four tests in the books, the odds that a fifth test will hold are low.
Justin Sun Stirs More Controversy
Nobody loves stirring the pot more than Justin Sun. He recently made an announcement within an announcement, a move which defied all logic but hyped his followers up nonetheless. It turns out that the announcement he was teasing was a bid for having lunch with Warren Buffett, which he won for a mere $4.5 million.
The money will go straight to a homeless support charity which is an entirely admirable cause and one that Sun is benefiting greatly with the sheer amount of cash he just dropped – so no qualms can be made about his willingness to give.
It remains to be seen how he will approach Buffett, a man known for his completely inane, illogical, and staunchly critical views of Bitcoin. In a Twitter post, CZ, Binance’s beloved boss, stated that he had been invited to the lunch by Sun but turned it down because it’s “too far.” Regardless of how the lunch turns out, it’ll have been spectacular coverage for Justin and both Tron and BitTorrent – something he’ll be pleased with, no matter the price tag.
After a historic run that took bitcoin from the $3K’s to nearly $9000, the king of crypto is finally running on what seem to be tired legs 💤. Despite appearances, BTC does tend to do the unexpected, so it’s best to keep analyses dynamic and not fall into dogmatic ways of thinking.
Currently, BTC is trading at $7942 as it bounces just above 24-hour lows. Its sudden fall from the heights of the mid $8000 range is a sharp reminder that comfort is a trader’s worst enemy. Becoming complacent is a form of taking excessive risk, and taking excessive risks is a shortcut to getting rekt 🆘.
As bitcoin shot higher and higher, and the market entered a jubilant phase of micro-euphoria, we started looking to take risk off the table. The higher a digital asset climbs over a short timeframe, the greater the likelihood of a strong correction 📉.
We constantly stress the importance of proper risk management as a way to defend against giving hard-won gains back to the market 🛡. Part and parcel of appropriate risk management is skepticism – the more euphoric the retail trading crowd becomes, the greater should be your suspicion towards the continued upside of a given asset or market.
Last week, our analysts revealed a startling trend regarding correction cycles after parabolic bitcoin moves up. During seven previous BTC bull runs, violent corrections of up to 40% occurred just after they topped. As always, past performance is not indicative of future results, but after parsing through the data, we decided that reducing BTC exposure using a hedge short was the right call.
We shared that call along with real-time data and analysis with our private members several days ago. Current strong resistance stands at $8030, and a breakdown + close below the $7903 mark would signal a strong shorting opportunity. Should we break back above the $8030 mark, the chances of retesting the $8400-$8500 region are excellent – however, because there is a rising wedge present with four tests in the books, the odds that a fifth test will hold are low.
Justin Sun Stirs More Controversy
Nobody loves stirring the pot more than Justin Sun. He recently made an announcement within an announcement, a move which defied all logic but hyped his followers up nonetheless. It turns out that the announcement he was teasing was a bid for having lunch with Warren Buffett, which he won for a mere $4.5 million.
The money will go straight to a homeless support charity which is an entirely admirable cause and one that Sun is benefiting greatly with the sheer amount of cash he just dropped – so no qualms can be made about his willingness to give.
It remains to be seen how he will approach Buffett, a man known for his completely inane, illogical, and staunchly critical views of Bitcoin. In a Twitter post, CZ, Binance’s beloved boss, stated that he had been invited to the lunch by Sun but turned it down because it’s “too far.” Regardless of how the lunch turns out, it’ll have been spectacular coverage for Justin and both Tron and BitTorrent – something he’ll be pleased with, no matter the price tag.
Indecision Time for Bitcoin
What’s going on?
It’s another day, and with that, we have new opportunities 💸. That’s an attitude we stress as traders – start every day fresh by reminding yourself that with every new day there are ripe opportunities.
Having said that, let’s turn to the market and see what we can make of the action. Bitcoin is making minor adjustments within the $7600 range while 24-hour trading volume continues to dry up. After weeks of posting impressive numbers, overall volume has declined from $32 billion to just half of that, having rounded out at $16 billion overnight.📉
Considering that BTC price is also gently declining, there’s plenty of encouragement to take away from the fact that it isn’t making a high-volume nosedive. However, even if we try to defog our view of the current market, there isn’t an obvious enough line of sight to help with a decision. During such times, it’s best to keep your powder dry, which is exactly what we’re doing (save for a hedge short we called out last week at $8400).
Our analysts have kept an eagle eye on BTC and have identified three scenarios to keep in mind:
1. There’s an overlooked head and shoulders pattern forming. The right shoulder completes the resistance of what we’re terming a ‘consolidation pivot’ – which is the last swing high and low before a pennant, flag, or rising/falling wedge breaks out. It’s aimed at a target just below 5700–5800.
2. If the above fails and price does indeed break out, albeit with slow price action and anemic volume, then we’ll assume a bull trap is in play. That assumption is based on recent price action that occurred with robust volume on moves down and decreasing volume on the way up. Should BTC cruise between $8200 and $8800 in that way, we’ll take a bearish stance and will move on a short setup.
3. A strong move would take us straight to $8600-$8800, an area which we would either consolidate or annihilate by moving directly to new highs. Should the latter be the case, a close above $9400 would suggest $10000 and beyond as the next destination.
Spotlight on Scaling
As the blockchain space matures and finds widespread adoption across most industries imaginable, the question of how to scale to the demand has arrived front and center. As smart contract blockchain platforms roll out, they’re teasing their potential transaction per second speed well before discussing other similarly important qualities.
The pressure to scale up to the demands of impending blockbuster commercial applications is getting so intense that some blockchains, like Zilliqa, are engaging in psychological battles. ZIL founder Max Kantelia recently stated that “…people are starting to mine Zilliqa, we’re beginning to see the network starting to grow and grow, so [competing with VISA] is absolutely within sight, and I would say that it could happen as quickly as the next 12 to 18 months.”
Ethereum’s ETH 2.0 project is promising to bring sharding to the network within the next two years – however, other projects may have the upper hand well before it comes online. Coming to Ethereum’s rescue is the rise of new second-layer scaling projects like Matic and Celer. Using a second-layer scaling solution takes some of the heat off of Ethereum, as they’ll be able to use projects like Matic to scale decentralized applications that want to use the Ethereum network to build and launch.
Regardless of who wins the transaction speed war, the way the question of scaling is solved will determine much of what’s to come in cryptocurrency’s future.
What’s going on?
It’s another day, and with that, we have new opportunities 💸. That’s an attitude we stress as traders – start every day fresh by reminding yourself that with every new day there are ripe opportunities.
Having said that, let’s turn to the market and see what we can make of the action. Bitcoin is making minor adjustments within the $7600 range while 24-hour trading volume continues to dry up. After weeks of posting impressive numbers, overall volume has declined from $32 billion to just half of that, having rounded out at $16 billion overnight.📉
Considering that BTC price is also gently declining, there’s plenty of encouragement to take away from the fact that it isn’t making a high-volume nosedive. However, even if we try to defog our view of the current market, there isn’t an obvious enough line of sight to help with a decision. During such times, it’s best to keep your powder dry, which is exactly what we’re doing (save for a hedge short we called out last week at $8400).
Our analysts have kept an eagle eye on BTC and have identified three scenarios to keep in mind:
1. There’s an overlooked head and shoulders pattern forming. The right shoulder completes the resistance of what we’re terming a ‘consolidation pivot’ – which is the last swing high and low before a pennant, flag, or rising/falling wedge breaks out. It’s aimed at a target just below 5700–5800.
2. If the above fails and price does indeed break out, albeit with slow price action and anemic volume, then we’ll assume a bull trap is in play. That assumption is based on recent price action that occurred with robust volume on moves down and decreasing volume on the way up. Should BTC cruise between $8200 and $8800 in that way, we’ll take a bearish stance and will move on a short setup.
3. A strong move would take us straight to $8600-$8800, an area which we would either consolidate or annihilate by moving directly to new highs. Should the latter be the case, a close above $9400 would suggest $10000 and beyond as the next destination.
Spotlight on Scaling
As the blockchain space matures and finds widespread adoption across most industries imaginable, the question of how to scale to the demand has arrived front and center. As smart contract blockchain platforms roll out, they’re teasing their potential transaction per second speed well before discussing other similarly important qualities.
The pressure to scale up to the demands of impending blockbuster commercial applications is getting so intense that some blockchains, like Zilliqa, are engaging in psychological battles. ZIL founder Max Kantelia recently stated that “…people are starting to mine Zilliqa, we’re beginning to see the network starting to grow and grow, so [competing with VISA] is absolutely within sight, and I would say that it could happen as quickly as the next 12 to 18 months.”
Ethereum’s ETH 2.0 project is promising to bring sharding to the network within the next two years – however, other projects may have the upper hand well before it comes online. Coming to Ethereum’s rescue is the rise of new second-layer scaling projects like Matic and Celer. Using a second-layer scaling solution takes some of the heat off of Ethereum, as they’ll be able to use projects like Matic to scale decentralized applications that want to use the Ethereum network to build and launch.
Regardless of who wins the transaction speed war, the way the question of scaling is solved will determine much of what’s to come in cryptocurrency’s future.
🔥BTC Gaining Strength as Binance Ban Shakes the Market🔥
Have you read the day’s latest?
Binance has formally announced that US customers will be banned from trading on its platform effective September 12, 2019.❌ The news comes just a little over 24 hours after the world’s #1 cryptocurrency exchange dropped the news that it was developing a dedicated exchange for Americans.
The good cop/bad cop routine being played by Binance hasn’t gone over well with the altcoin market 📉. We normally save these news briefings for the end of our updates, but the Binance news is of such importance that it needs to be addressed right off the bat.
Problematically, American customers account for a significant chunk of Binance’s overall clientele and trading volume (at least 30 million visits by US customers in the last 6 months). By removing them from the fold, Binance may be dooming the altcoin market. In Singapore, a similarly regulated market, only BTC and ETH are listed on exchanges.
The odds of Binance.US launching with a mere fraction of the altcoins offered on Binance’s global exchange are quite high given that Binance.US will only list assets that are clearly defined as not being securities. Anything on the fence will be deemed too high risk.👀
An interesting effect of Binance’s policy update has been the flight of value out of alts and straight into BTC. Currently, BTC has reclaimed the $8400 level and is steadily trending up. In our last update, we stated that it was our belief that a gradual rise on low volume would constitute a bull trap for BTC. While that very well may be the case, our view didn’t account for the lousy FA development for alts turning into an awesome reason to hodl BTC.
Because Binance.US will, no doubt, offer BTC, it appears to be one of only a few safe haven cryptocurrencies for US citizens until the dust settles. However, we’re very skeptical about BTC’s lack of volume, which seems to indicate dry demand in higher price ranges 😳.
Given the uncertainty of how the Binance news will play out over a higher time frame, we’re going to take a wait and see approach – allowing the market time to absorb the news and settle down.
Facebook’s GlobalCoin Has Popular Friends
Another day, another news drop for GlobalCoin. This time it appears that Facebook’s “secret” cryptocurrency project has found incredible suitors with deep pockets. Uber, PayPal, and Visa were named as probable backers with stake in the GlobalCoin project 🌏.
Last week, it was reported that GlobalCoin nodes were on sale for $10 million apiece 😲. If some of the world’s biggest brands are, in fact, signed on to ride with the GlobalCoin project, then the odds of its success and adoption fly even higher.
Have you read the day’s latest?
Binance has formally announced that US customers will be banned from trading on its platform effective September 12, 2019.❌ The news comes just a little over 24 hours after the world’s #1 cryptocurrency exchange dropped the news that it was developing a dedicated exchange for Americans.
The good cop/bad cop routine being played by Binance hasn’t gone over well with the altcoin market 📉. We normally save these news briefings for the end of our updates, but the Binance news is of such importance that it needs to be addressed right off the bat.
Problematically, American customers account for a significant chunk of Binance’s overall clientele and trading volume (at least 30 million visits by US customers in the last 6 months). By removing them from the fold, Binance may be dooming the altcoin market. In Singapore, a similarly regulated market, only BTC and ETH are listed on exchanges.
The odds of Binance.US launching with a mere fraction of the altcoins offered on Binance’s global exchange are quite high given that Binance.US will only list assets that are clearly defined as not being securities. Anything on the fence will be deemed too high risk.👀
An interesting effect of Binance’s policy update has been the flight of value out of alts and straight into BTC. Currently, BTC has reclaimed the $8400 level and is steadily trending up. In our last update, we stated that it was our belief that a gradual rise on low volume would constitute a bull trap for BTC. While that very well may be the case, our view didn’t account for the lousy FA development for alts turning into an awesome reason to hodl BTC.
Because Binance.US will, no doubt, offer BTC, it appears to be one of only a few safe haven cryptocurrencies for US citizens until the dust settles. However, we’re very skeptical about BTC’s lack of volume, which seems to indicate dry demand in higher price ranges 😳.
Given the uncertainty of how the Binance news will play out over a higher time frame, we’re going to take a wait and see approach – allowing the market time to absorb the news and settle down.
Facebook’s GlobalCoin Has Popular Friends
Another day, another news drop for GlobalCoin. This time it appears that Facebook’s “secret” cryptocurrency project has found incredible suitors with deep pockets. Uber, PayPal, and Visa were named as probable backers with stake in the GlobalCoin project 🌏.
Last week, it was reported that GlobalCoin nodes were on sale for $10 million apiece 😲. If some of the world’s biggest brands are, in fact, signed on to ride with the GlobalCoin project, then the odds of its success and adoption fly even higher.
Binanceʼs Hits Pause on American Crypto Trading –ButIsItaBadThing?
In what seems like a huge blow to American traders and the cryptocurrency market as a whole, Binance changed its terms of use to reflect that as of September 12th, 2019, US-based customers will no longer have access to trading on its exchange. The crypto market immediately responded to the news with deep red candles for altcoins and an assured rise for BTC.
To understand the full effect of Binanceʼs policy change, one need only consider the sheer volume attributed to American traders. In September 2018, Americans accounted for up to 30% of Binanceʼs traffic. By early this year, that number had halved to 15%. While that isnʼt the lionʼs share of Binanceʼs traffic, 15% is still not a number to sneeze at, and it certainly doesnʼt account for savvy Americans already using VPNs to conceal their location.
Now, despite appearances, this is, ahem, ultimately a good thing for Bitcoin and crypto in general.
Hold on a moment and let us explain...
VPNs and Binance DEX
On September 12th, US traders will be blocked from using Binance CEX (centralized exchange). For a while now, Binance boss and crypto stalwart CZ has been pushing for the adoption of decentralized exchanges. He firmly believes that they are the future and endgame of digital asset exchange. At the same time, heʼs head of the worldʼs largest centralized cryptocurrency exchange.
What to do in a conundrum like that?
CZ built Binance DEX (decentralized exchange) at Binance.org – the web interface for the DEX. Binance.org also has a policy stating that users from 29 countries, including the US, are prohibited from using it. However, CZ has made it clear that the DEX blockchain canʼt geoblock anyone, and that several wallets, including Trust Wallet, allow users access to the blockchain without passing through Binance.org at all. Additionally, all you need to do to get past Binance.orgʼs geoblock is use a VPN.
So, despite the talk of geoblocks and bans, business will continue at Binance DEX as normal – and once people realize that they can walk around the whole issue by just using one of Binanceʼs trusted wallets, theyʼll simply adopt those and keep trading.
Thatʼs great for Binance – and us – as theyʼre necessarily pushing people toward blockchain connected wallets rather than blockable/controllable web interfaces. Binanceʼs policy change is gently corraling people toward adopting blockchain as a solution to bannable centralized technology – and thatʼs a win.
Binance CEX Pause Is Healthy for Competition
All well and good for decentralized exchanges, but what about Binanceʼs centralized exchange ban? Binance is the biggest fish in the exchange market. OK, itʼs more like a shark, or a whale, or a whale shark. Itʼs a whale shark. While Binance operates as usual, all the other exchanges swim in its shadow like fearful fish.
However, Binance pausing service on an undisclosed-yet-surely- significant-portion of its clientele means that the other exchanges finally sense its time to swim out from under Binanceʼs shadow and reclaim some market share for themselves. Binance has other exchanges on the ropes, going from strength to strength while its native token, BNB, has risen to become one of cryptoʼs most valuable assets.
The current – shall we say, FUD? – surrounding Binance marks an opportune moment for other exchanges to claw back clientele by expanding their offerings and catering specifically to US-based customers. Binance, as the crypto exchange incumbent, has finally shown a moment of weakness that should inspire other exchanges to seize the opportunity – which again, should be a win for all of us.
In what seems like a huge blow to American traders and the cryptocurrency market as a whole, Binance changed its terms of use to reflect that as of September 12th, 2019, US-based customers will no longer have access to trading on its exchange. The crypto market immediately responded to the news with deep red candles for altcoins and an assured rise for BTC.
To understand the full effect of Binanceʼs policy change, one need only consider the sheer volume attributed to American traders. In September 2018, Americans accounted for up to 30% of Binanceʼs traffic. By early this year, that number had halved to 15%. While that isnʼt the lionʼs share of Binanceʼs traffic, 15% is still not a number to sneeze at, and it certainly doesnʼt account for savvy Americans already using VPNs to conceal their location.
Now, despite appearances, this is, ahem, ultimately a good thing for Bitcoin and crypto in general.
Hold on a moment and let us explain...
VPNs and Binance DEX
On September 12th, US traders will be blocked from using Binance CEX (centralized exchange). For a while now, Binance boss and crypto stalwart CZ has been pushing for the adoption of decentralized exchanges. He firmly believes that they are the future and endgame of digital asset exchange. At the same time, heʼs head of the worldʼs largest centralized cryptocurrency exchange.
What to do in a conundrum like that?
CZ built Binance DEX (decentralized exchange) at Binance.org – the web interface for the DEX. Binance.org also has a policy stating that users from 29 countries, including the US, are prohibited from using it. However, CZ has made it clear that the DEX blockchain canʼt geoblock anyone, and that several wallets, including Trust Wallet, allow users access to the blockchain without passing through Binance.org at all. Additionally, all you need to do to get past Binance.orgʼs geoblock is use a VPN.
So, despite the talk of geoblocks and bans, business will continue at Binance DEX as normal – and once people realize that they can walk around the whole issue by just using one of Binanceʼs trusted wallets, theyʼll simply adopt those and keep trading.
Thatʼs great for Binance – and us – as theyʼre necessarily pushing people toward blockchain connected wallets rather than blockable/controllable web interfaces. Binanceʼs policy change is gently corraling people toward adopting blockchain as a solution to bannable centralized technology – and thatʼs a win.
Binance CEX Pause Is Healthy for Competition
All well and good for decentralized exchanges, but what about Binanceʼs centralized exchange ban? Binance is the biggest fish in the exchange market. OK, itʼs more like a shark, or a whale, or a whale shark. Itʼs a whale shark. While Binance operates as usual, all the other exchanges swim in its shadow like fearful fish.
However, Binance pausing service on an undisclosed-yet-surely- significant-portion of its clientele means that the other exchanges finally sense its time to swim out from under Binanceʼs shadow and reclaim some market share for themselves. Binance has other exchanges on the ropes, going from strength to strength while its native token, BNB, has risen to become one of cryptoʼs most valuable assets.
The current – shall we say, FUD? – surrounding Binance marks an opportune moment for other exchanges to claw back clientele by expanding their offerings and catering specifically to US-based customers. Binance, as the crypto exchange incumbent, has finally shown a moment of weakness that should inspire other exchanges to seize the opportunity – which again, should be a win for all of us.
To make up for its ban on US customers, Binance is launching an American fiat to crypto exchange called Binance.US. Theyʼve launched similar services in the UK, Singapore, and Uganda. In each instance, the exchange was restricted to just a few assets, with BTC and ETH being the obvious listings. Itʼs likely that Binance.US will launch with a similarly restricted set of offerings, but itʼs worth noting that it may retain a somewhat extensive list of assets.
Below is a list of assets that may feature on Binance.Us (in purple) based on those assets already being offered on other US-regulated exchanges:
Credit: Goomba
If Binance.US does come forward with at least the assets listed inpurple, then theyʼll have no advantage (other than the UI preferences of users) over other digital asset exchanges like Coinbase, Bittrex, and Kraken. Despite not having a big advantage in the American market over the competition, Binance should still enjoy plenty of traffic based on name recognition alone – and anyone looking to play altcoin roulette with lower market cap coins can simply go to their DEX behind a VPN.
Finally, there is a small loophole that will probably satisfy a large portion of retail traders. You can sign up for a Binance account without KYC as long as youʼre OK with a 2 BTC withdrawal limit per 24 hours. A non-KYC Binance account + VPN means you can trade away, just donʼt count on withdrawing all of your winnings in one shot.
So, How Is This a Good Thing?
Hopefully, weʼve made clear how this ban isnʼt so dramatic after all. Of course, in the short term, altcoins are likely to feel some pain as the situation reverberates amongst traders. But, even if the ban isnʼt dramatic, weʼve yet to clarify how itʼs good for crypto.
Hereʼs the thing: We all want adoption, donʼt we? We all want to see BTC, ETH, or even a completely gambly rank #491 CMC coin accepted on Amazon. Itʼs important to realize that adoption on that level is literally never going to happen without cryptocurrency infrastructure becoming compliant with the regulations of the countries theyʼre trading in.
At the same time, we canʼt hand everyoneʼs private keys over to government agencies and blockchain analytics firms, either, so itʼs a fine line weʼre walking. The SEC is currently going after KIK for itʼs $100 million ICO in which it alleges the project sold unregistered securities to investors. That case should bring plenty of clarity for the regulatory environment around crypto, however, its contentiousness goes a long way in highlighting just how murky crypto regulation is in not only the US but most countries.
When the largest cryptocurrency exchange puts trading for the most economically powerful country in the world on hold, the takeaway should be that those at the helm of the crypto industry are taking serious steps toward making digital assets adoptable in a permanent way. Crypto is here to stay, and that scares regulators who want to maintain the status quo. They donʼt understand Bitcoin, but thatʼs OK – they donʼt need to.
If thereʼs enough regulatory push back, people will simply move to DEXs, which benefits the global crypto economy and its users. The tech to make them scale is coming into maturity now as well, with networks like Celer and Matic launching their mainnets next month.
In the short term, expect to see heavy volatility around alts, but donʼt count them out. The fog surrounding this issue will clear, and, just like after the China FUD in September 2017 (when China banned crypto trading), the market always finds a way to bounce back.
Below is a list of assets that may feature on Binance.Us (in purple) based on those assets already being offered on other US-regulated exchanges:
Credit: Goomba
If Binance.US does come forward with at least the assets listed inpurple, then theyʼll have no advantage (other than the UI preferences of users) over other digital asset exchanges like Coinbase, Bittrex, and Kraken. Despite not having a big advantage in the American market over the competition, Binance should still enjoy plenty of traffic based on name recognition alone – and anyone looking to play altcoin roulette with lower market cap coins can simply go to their DEX behind a VPN.
Finally, there is a small loophole that will probably satisfy a large portion of retail traders. You can sign up for a Binance account without KYC as long as youʼre OK with a 2 BTC withdrawal limit per 24 hours. A non-KYC Binance account + VPN means you can trade away, just donʼt count on withdrawing all of your winnings in one shot.
So, How Is This a Good Thing?
Hopefully, weʼve made clear how this ban isnʼt so dramatic after all. Of course, in the short term, altcoins are likely to feel some pain as the situation reverberates amongst traders. But, even if the ban isnʼt dramatic, weʼve yet to clarify how itʼs good for crypto.
Hereʼs the thing: We all want adoption, donʼt we? We all want to see BTC, ETH, or even a completely gambly rank #491 CMC coin accepted on Amazon. Itʼs important to realize that adoption on that level is literally never going to happen without cryptocurrency infrastructure becoming compliant with the regulations of the countries theyʼre trading in.
At the same time, we canʼt hand everyoneʼs private keys over to government agencies and blockchain analytics firms, either, so itʼs a fine line weʼre walking. The SEC is currently going after KIK for itʼs $100 million ICO in which it alleges the project sold unregistered securities to investors. That case should bring plenty of clarity for the regulatory environment around crypto, however, its contentiousness goes a long way in highlighting just how murky crypto regulation is in not only the US but most countries.
When the largest cryptocurrency exchange puts trading for the most economically powerful country in the world on hold, the takeaway should be that those at the helm of the crypto industry are taking serious steps toward making digital assets adoptable in a permanent way. Crypto is here to stay, and that scares regulators who want to maintain the status quo. They donʼt understand Bitcoin, but thatʼs OK – they donʼt need to.
If thereʼs enough regulatory push back, people will simply move to DEXs, which benefits the global crypto economy and its users. The tech to make them scale is coming into maturity now as well, with networks like Celer and Matic launching their mainnets next month.
In the short term, expect to see heavy volatility around alts, but donʼt count them out. The fog surrounding this issue will clear, and, just like after the China FUD in September 2017 (when China banned crypto trading), the market always finds a way to bounce back.
🗞$10K Bitcoin? Did Someone say $10K Bitcoin?🗞
• Everyone: $3400 BTC, it’s all over, time to buy some Netflix
stocks.
• BTC: Hold my beer
What can we say? We’ve long maintained that BTC was going for the $10K mark, but there was no way to know it would run for it this quickly. Bitcoin is currently in full-blown take-no-prisoners mode.
It’s not often we say this, but seriously: short the corn at your own peril.
In a show of strength, BTC has seen tiny pullbacks with each timezone waking and coming to grips with the price action, but on each occasion, it has rocked back to daily highs. We quietly anticipated the current move when our Lunar Trend Bot went long at $9350 🎉, but we didn’t expect to find ourselves orbiting the moon this soon.
With RSI maintaining right around the overbought zone in the days leading up to today’s surge, it was clear that bulls had the upper hand and were salivating over reaching the golden $10,000 psychological resistance. What is it about $10K that makes for Lambo dreams when BTC is below it, and nightmares of lifelong wage slavery when BTC breaks below?
As far as psychological resistances go, $10,000 is our current $100,000 – breaking it will be a major milestone, and from its heights, the $20,000 mountaintop will be clearly in view. While that’s great and all for BTC, what about the alt market?
As we’ve mentioned several times recently, we’re less enthusiastic about the short-term prospects of most alts. With so much attention on BTC and Facebook’s Libra, the stakes in the crypto game have been raised. Moreover, Binance and Bittrex are two major exchanges that will restrict altcoin trading access for Americans in the months to come.
The convergence of BTC mooning, bad exchange news for alts, and the game-changing entrance of Libra into the crypto landscape all bode poorly for the altcoin market.
Tokens like ICON’s ICX are capitulating beneath bear market lows, while others, like AION, WTC, VET, and NEO are already swimming with the fishes. From a fundamental perspective, all of the aforementioned projects are solid, but grabbing at them here reminds us of something someone said about catching a falling knife.
Perhaps you know the saying.
• Everyone: $3400 BTC, it’s all over, time to buy some Netflix
stocks.
• BTC: Hold my beer
What can we say? We’ve long maintained that BTC was going for the $10K mark, but there was no way to know it would run for it this quickly. Bitcoin is currently in full-blown take-no-prisoners mode.
It’s not often we say this, but seriously: short the corn at your own peril.
In a show of strength, BTC has seen tiny pullbacks with each timezone waking and coming to grips with the price action, but on each occasion, it has rocked back to daily highs. We quietly anticipated the current move when our Lunar Trend Bot went long at $9350 🎉, but we didn’t expect to find ourselves orbiting the moon this soon.
With RSI maintaining right around the overbought zone in the days leading up to today’s surge, it was clear that bulls had the upper hand and were salivating over reaching the golden $10,000 psychological resistance. What is it about $10K that makes for Lambo dreams when BTC is below it, and nightmares of lifelong wage slavery when BTC breaks below?
As far as psychological resistances go, $10,000 is our current $100,000 – breaking it will be a major milestone, and from its heights, the $20,000 mountaintop will be clearly in view. While that’s great and all for BTC, what about the alt market?
As we’ve mentioned several times recently, we’re less enthusiastic about the short-term prospects of most alts. With so much attention on BTC and Facebook’s Libra, the stakes in the crypto game have been raised. Moreover, Binance and Bittrex are two major exchanges that will restrict altcoin trading access for Americans in the months to come.
The convergence of BTC mooning, bad exchange news for alts, and the game-changing entrance of Libra into the crypto landscape all bode poorly for the altcoin market.
Tokens like ICON’s ICX are capitulating beneath bear market lows, while others, like AION, WTC, VET, and NEO are already swimming with the fishes. From a fundamental perspective, all of the aforementioned projects are solid, but grabbing at them here reminds us of something someone said about catching a falling knife.
Perhaps you know the saying.
One Small Step For…$50K?
Fifty years ago, Neil Armstrong became the first human being to walk on the moon. Today, it’s us cryptonauts who are strapped onto an entirely different rocket, and we’re holding fast for that lunar rock in the sky – or bust.
Yes, it’s a pullback. We’ve been in a solid downtrend since the end of June, making lower highs and lower lows with each mini-cycle.
Are we going to create new lows? If you’ve been following our updates over these last weeks, then you’ll recall that we believe there is a high likelihood of revisiting the $8K region, but not lower than that.
One thing to keep in mind is that just because a bearish bias exists, doesn’t mean that the market itself is in a lasting bear market, or that the downtrend will resemble that of 2018 (and much of this year). When we refer to having a bearish bias, it means that, given a certain timeframe, we believe there is more downside opportunity than upside.
Sticking to your bias in the face of contradictory evidence, however, is pure folly, and should be avoided. Always remain open to your bias being invalidated, and make sure to set conditions for what that invalidation would require.
To invalidate our current bearish outlook, BTC will need to reclaim (and hold) the $11K mark.
Justin Sun Delays $4 Million Lunch – but Why?
Imagine the crypto world’s surprise at hearing the news that Justin Sun’s hotly-anticipated lunch with trading legend Warren Buffett was being delayed over health issues. The timing of the announcement was not only inconvenient but, to some, a bit suspect.
According to a CoinDesk report that’s hot off the press, the suspect turns out to be Sun himself. As it so happens, Sun may be barred from leaving China due to an emerging investigation against him by the Chinese government.
In a surprising turn of events, it looks like Sun’s often touted Tron-based gambling DApps have landed him in hot water. Ever the social media first responder, Sun took to Twitter to respond to the illegal fundraising allegations against him, stating that they are “wrong.”
He did not, however, clarify his whereabouts or give further details about the reported ailment that is keeping him from the luncheon with Buffett.
Fifty years ago, Neil Armstrong became the first human being to walk on the moon. Today, it’s us cryptonauts who are strapped onto an entirely different rocket, and we’re holding fast for that lunar rock in the sky – or bust.
Yes, it’s a pullback. We’ve been in a solid downtrend since the end of June, making lower highs and lower lows with each mini-cycle.
Are we going to create new lows? If you’ve been following our updates over these last weeks, then you’ll recall that we believe there is a high likelihood of revisiting the $8K region, but not lower than that.
One thing to keep in mind is that just because a bearish bias exists, doesn’t mean that the market itself is in a lasting bear market, or that the downtrend will resemble that of 2018 (and much of this year). When we refer to having a bearish bias, it means that, given a certain timeframe, we believe there is more downside opportunity than upside.
Sticking to your bias in the face of contradictory evidence, however, is pure folly, and should be avoided. Always remain open to your bias being invalidated, and make sure to set conditions for what that invalidation would require.
To invalidate our current bearish outlook, BTC will need to reclaim (and hold) the $11K mark.
Justin Sun Delays $4 Million Lunch – but Why?
Imagine the crypto world’s surprise at hearing the news that Justin Sun’s hotly-anticipated lunch with trading legend Warren Buffett was being delayed over health issues. The timing of the announcement was not only inconvenient but, to some, a bit suspect.
According to a CoinDesk report that’s hot off the press, the suspect turns out to be Sun himself. As it so happens, Sun may be barred from leaving China due to an emerging investigation against him by the Chinese government.
In a surprising turn of events, it looks like Sun’s often touted Tron-based gambling DApps have landed him in hot water. Ever the social media first responder, Sun took to Twitter to respond to the illegal fundraising allegations against him, stating that they are “wrong.”
He did not, however, clarify his whereabouts or give further details about the reported ailment that is keeping him from the luncheon with Buffett.
A Bull or a Bear Case for Bitcoin?
If anything is clear about BTC amidst all the recent market chop, it’s that the king of crypto is locked in a downtrend. Since the beginning of the month, Bitcoin has been posting lower highs and printing lower lows at a barely perceptible rate, making it easy to be blind to the danger if you’re waiting for a turnaround.
Historically, the cryptocurrency market enjoys a strong spring performance before neutralizing its gains for the duration of the summer. This year appears to be no different. Around the world, summer kicked off later than usual with the clouds finally ebbing in recent weeks. However, the brighter the sun gets, the more crypto’s once green candles shrink away from the light, turning red in the process.
On the whole, our analysts are bearish on BTC’s short term prospects. A revisit to the $8K range seems most likely, with a specific target of $8.2K. In the bearish Gann square chart below, we’ve outlined four areas where we expect to see price action in the coming weeks. As you can see, the $6.6K to $9K range is projected to be a busy one PA wise, whereas the odds of getting up and over $11K are diminishing.
Also of note is the degree to which daily trading volume across all major crypto markets has dried up. During the last two years $14 billion in daily trading volume was a significant win for BTC – these days, it represents a drop in the bucket. A positive takeaway is that this chop and drop period for Bitcoin isn’t happening on high volume, which would signal a dump. Instead, we take it as a signal that buyer interest at higher prices is waning in the face of exhaustion after a parabolic bull run that lasted for several months.
If anything is clear about BTC amidst all the recent market chop, it’s that the king of crypto is locked in a downtrend. Since the beginning of the month, Bitcoin has been posting lower highs and printing lower lows at a barely perceptible rate, making it easy to be blind to the danger if you’re waiting for a turnaround.
Historically, the cryptocurrency market enjoys a strong spring performance before neutralizing its gains for the duration of the summer. This year appears to be no different. Around the world, summer kicked off later than usual with the clouds finally ebbing in recent weeks. However, the brighter the sun gets, the more crypto’s once green candles shrink away from the light, turning red in the process.
On the whole, our analysts are bearish on BTC’s short term prospects. A revisit to the $8K range seems most likely, with a specific target of $8.2K. In the bearish Gann square chart below, we’ve outlined four areas where we expect to see price action in the coming weeks. As you can see, the $6.6K to $9K range is projected to be a busy one PA wise, whereas the odds of getting up and over $11K are diminishing.
Also of note is the degree to which daily trading volume across all major crypto markets has dried up. During the last two years $14 billion in daily trading volume was a significant win for BTC – these days, it represents a drop in the bucket. A positive takeaway is that this chop and drop period for Bitcoin isn’t happening on high volume, which would signal a dump. Instead, we take it as a signal that buyer interest at higher prices is waning in the face of exhaustion after a parabolic bull run that lasted for several months.
How Low Can You Go?
After wicking to just over $10,000 on Friday, BTC provided us with another reliably volatile drop to $9,100. The whole play was done and dusted within 48 hours, and most certainly took no one by surprise. The first rule of BTC is that prolific price swings are a fact of life, so itʼs best to do two things:
1. Accept that they happen
2. Profit from them
We previously called your attention to the $9,500 mark as a battleground for the short term fortunes of BTC. A drop below meant that the likelihood of heading for the $8K region became greater while maintenance above signaled a modicum of strength.
Bulls have admirably defended the short term hopes of BTC, but, unfortunately, appear to be undergoing a slow-motion rout from the battlefield. Bitcoinʼs repeated forays below $9,500 have shown that the bears clearly have the upper hand.
Considering that weʼre currently experiencing yet another test of $9K- $9.5K, one has to wonder how much longer it can hold. Below youʼll find an updated Gann Square which gives a neat and easy to understand visual analysis of BTCʼs likely targets. A huge chunk of real estate belongs to the region between $6,600-$9,000.
Within that region, there is a large confluence of support between $8.2K-$8.8K, and yet again from $7K-$7.4K. These are crucial levels that will tell about the depth of the current market reversal and whether bulls are in for a long hibernation.
Ethereum ($ETH) Price Analysis
Ethereum hasnʼt played up to expectations this year and has lagged behind BTCʼs performance on several occasions. After running up to $350, ETH was strongly rejected and has since dropped by over 50%. ETH has tested $195 and found support there. However, should it fail on a retest, weʼll likely land between $157-$170.
With the bulk of Ethereumʼs fundamentals a long way off, there isnʼt much to look forward to in the short term. ETH 2.0, the next milestone upgrade for the network, hasnʼt been given a clear release schedule. Conflicting estimates from Ethereum developers have alternately given late 2020 and as late as 2022 as potential debut dates.
IRS Sending Letters to Crypto Owners
In a scare tactic that warrants a class-action lawsuit, the IRS has begun sending letters to US taxpayers. The agency has stated that itʼs targeting 10,000 taxpayers with the first round of letters, and that, according to IRS Commissioner Chuck Rettig, they should “take these letters very seriously.”
Several users on /r/bitcoin as well as /r/cryptocurrency have posted pictures of the letters they received from the IRS. While short on details, the letters essentially say that the agency is aware that the recipient has transacted “virtual currencies” and that they “may not have met U.S. tax filing and reporting requirements” regarding them.
Weʼll keep you updated on the story as it develops.
After wicking to just over $10,000 on Friday, BTC provided us with another reliably volatile drop to $9,100. The whole play was done and dusted within 48 hours, and most certainly took no one by surprise. The first rule of BTC is that prolific price swings are a fact of life, so itʼs best to do two things:
1. Accept that they happen
2. Profit from them
We previously called your attention to the $9,500 mark as a battleground for the short term fortunes of BTC. A drop below meant that the likelihood of heading for the $8K region became greater while maintenance above signaled a modicum of strength.
Bulls have admirably defended the short term hopes of BTC, but, unfortunately, appear to be undergoing a slow-motion rout from the battlefield. Bitcoinʼs repeated forays below $9,500 have shown that the bears clearly have the upper hand.
Considering that weʼre currently experiencing yet another test of $9K- $9.5K, one has to wonder how much longer it can hold. Below youʼll find an updated Gann Square which gives a neat and easy to understand visual analysis of BTCʼs likely targets. A huge chunk of real estate belongs to the region between $6,600-$9,000.
Within that region, there is a large confluence of support between $8.2K-$8.8K, and yet again from $7K-$7.4K. These are crucial levels that will tell about the depth of the current market reversal and whether bulls are in for a long hibernation.
Ethereum ($ETH) Price Analysis
Ethereum hasnʼt played up to expectations this year and has lagged behind BTCʼs performance on several occasions. After running up to $350, ETH was strongly rejected and has since dropped by over 50%. ETH has tested $195 and found support there. However, should it fail on a retest, weʼll likely land between $157-$170.
With the bulk of Ethereumʼs fundamentals a long way off, there isnʼt much to look forward to in the short term. ETH 2.0, the next milestone upgrade for the network, hasnʼt been given a clear release schedule. Conflicting estimates from Ethereum developers have alternately given late 2020 and as late as 2022 as potential debut dates.
IRS Sending Letters to Crypto Owners
In a scare tactic that warrants a class-action lawsuit, the IRS has begun sending letters to US taxpayers. The agency has stated that itʼs targeting 10,000 taxpayers with the first round of letters, and that, according to IRS Commissioner Chuck Rettig, they should “take these letters very seriously.”
Several users on /r/bitcoin as well as /r/cryptocurrency have posted pictures of the letters they received from the IRS. While short on details, the letters essentially say that the agency is aware that the recipient has transacted “virtual currencies” and that they “may not have met U.S. tax filing and reporting requirements” regarding them.
Weʼll keep you updated on the story as it develops.
Will a Recession Sink the Cryptocurrency Market?
In a tumultuous day of trading, the Dow crashed by 800 points, yesterday, as an ominous recession indicator came to life. For the first time since 2007, 10-year bond yields dipped below 2-year bond yields 😵.
For the record, every time that happened in the last 50 years, a recession followed 📉. We’re the first ones to say that past performance doesn’t indicate future results, but hey, you’ve got to admit that’s a pretty rockin’ track record.
It isn’t just the US standing on the cusp of what seems like an impending recession. Bloomberg had this to say in wrapping up the world’s financial woes:
“China reported the weakest growth in industrial output since 2002. Germany’s economy shrank as exports slumped, and euro-area production plunged the most in more than three years as the overall expansion cooled.”
So, yeah, not looking too hot out there. What does it mean for the cryptocurrency market? Yesterday, BTC dropped below $10,200 while ETH, XRP, EOS, TRX, XTZ, and several other blue chips fell off the proverbial cliff. For anyone who is keen to think that crypto markets are decoupled from traditional markets – think again 😳.
At a very fundamental level, the fortunes of all markets are tied together by whichever is the true hegemonic power. While we love crypto, it would be an outright lie for us to claim that digital assets assume more importance, economically speaking, than traditional global markets. With a total market cap that is less than Amazon’s, the cryptocurrency market pales in comparison to global stock markets, which are valued somewhere north of $60 trillion.
Bitcoin is just a drop in the bucket compared to the squidzillions at play in the bigger picture around the world. For those of you who, like us, are living and breathing crypto every day, this may be a hard fact to accept. However, being aware of it will strengthen your position and keep your hand steady. There is nothing financially worse than being caught by surprise.
BTC may act as a store of value during a recession
Bitcoin was born along with the last global recession back in 2008. Satoshi understood the ill effects of centralized finance and knew that bankers were sending the world economy straight for the dumpster.
While the Great Recession hit hard in countries around the world, BTC gained notoriety at first, and then real value right around 2013, when signs of relief from the recession first flickered. The rest of the digital asset market as we know it today emerged during a period of economic expansion and rebuilding in the US, Asia, and many European countries.
As such, the cryptocurrency market hasn’t faced a real recession, so predicting how it will react to a global economic downturn is more or less impossible. However, without recession fears at hand for last year and most of this one, altcoins have performed dismally. It’s highly doubtful that a downturn of the kind anticipated will help matters on that score.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, may perform better than expected. Safe-haven assets like gold and bonds have rallied in recent days. In 2008, the USD jumped nearly 20% against other currencies. Can Bitcoin make a safe-haven case? 🤔
Well…“Bitcoin is a remarkably stable and reliable store of value” said no one ever. With all due respect to Anthony Pompliano, it’s possible to be bullish on both Bitcoin and reality.
Look, we definitely puff puff pass the crypto hopium 🙏. But believing that people everywhere will suddenly flee for safety into an asset class based on bleeding edge tech defies reason. Then again, if Bitcoin has done anything well over the last decade, it’s defy reason.
Bitcoin’s drop yesterday was understandable. If someone says recession, everyone jumps back. The coming weeks and months will be crucial, though. Do we trend higher as hopes for the global economy sink further? That’s for time to tell.
In a tumultuous day of trading, the Dow crashed by 800 points, yesterday, as an ominous recession indicator came to life. For the first time since 2007, 10-year bond yields dipped below 2-year bond yields 😵.
For the record, every time that happened in the last 50 years, a recession followed 📉. We’re the first ones to say that past performance doesn’t indicate future results, but hey, you’ve got to admit that’s a pretty rockin’ track record.
It isn’t just the US standing on the cusp of what seems like an impending recession. Bloomberg had this to say in wrapping up the world’s financial woes:
“China reported the weakest growth in industrial output since 2002. Germany’s economy shrank as exports slumped, and euro-area production plunged the most in more than three years as the overall expansion cooled.”
So, yeah, not looking too hot out there. What does it mean for the cryptocurrency market? Yesterday, BTC dropped below $10,200 while ETH, XRP, EOS, TRX, XTZ, and several other blue chips fell off the proverbial cliff. For anyone who is keen to think that crypto markets are decoupled from traditional markets – think again 😳.
At a very fundamental level, the fortunes of all markets are tied together by whichever is the true hegemonic power. While we love crypto, it would be an outright lie for us to claim that digital assets assume more importance, economically speaking, than traditional global markets. With a total market cap that is less than Amazon’s, the cryptocurrency market pales in comparison to global stock markets, which are valued somewhere north of $60 trillion.
Bitcoin is just a drop in the bucket compared to the squidzillions at play in the bigger picture around the world. For those of you who, like us, are living and breathing crypto every day, this may be a hard fact to accept. However, being aware of it will strengthen your position and keep your hand steady. There is nothing financially worse than being caught by surprise.
BTC may act as a store of value during a recession
Bitcoin was born along with the last global recession back in 2008. Satoshi understood the ill effects of centralized finance and knew that bankers were sending the world economy straight for the dumpster.
While the Great Recession hit hard in countries around the world, BTC gained notoriety at first, and then real value right around 2013, when signs of relief from the recession first flickered. The rest of the digital asset market as we know it today emerged during a period of economic expansion and rebuilding in the US, Asia, and many European countries.
As such, the cryptocurrency market hasn’t faced a real recession, so predicting how it will react to a global economic downturn is more or less impossible. However, without recession fears at hand for last year and most of this one, altcoins have performed dismally. It’s highly doubtful that a downturn of the kind anticipated will help matters on that score.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, may perform better than expected. Safe-haven assets like gold and bonds have rallied in recent days. In 2008, the USD jumped nearly 20% against other currencies. Can Bitcoin make a safe-haven case? 🤔
Well…“Bitcoin is a remarkably stable and reliable store of value” said no one ever. With all due respect to Anthony Pompliano, it’s possible to be bullish on both Bitcoin and reality.
Look, we definitely puff puff pass the crypto hopium 🙏. But believing that people everywhere will suddenly flee for safety into an asset class based on bleeding edge tech defies reason. Then again, if Bitcoin has done anything well over the last decade, it’s defy reason.
Bitcoin’s drop yesterday was understandable. If someone says recession, everyone jumps back. The coming weeks and months will be crucial, though. Do we trend higher as hopes for the global economy sink further? That’s for time to tell.
Bakkt in Business
Regarding the noscript of this update…well, sorry, we just couldn’t help ourselves. Glad to have you with us on this fine Monday afternoon, morning, night, or hell, maybe it’s even Tuesday where you are.
Yesterday, Bakkt announced it would open physically-settled futures trading on September 23. That’s only about a year later than anticipated, but better late than never, right? Now, the skeptics out there are saying (with a smug smile, no doubt) that since Bakkt already delayed several times, nothing is keeping them from doing so again.
After all, this isn’t the first (or second) time Bakkt has hit us with a date for release. However, optimists that we are, we think it’s different this time.
Bakkt is a Big Deal
Bakkt is bringing two massive infrastructural changes to the crypto table. On their own, each would be a big deal, but together – well, that’s what really gets us excited.
1. Bitcoin Warehousing: Institutions want to buy Bitcoin, but they have no idea how to store it. Even if they did, they want someone else to be responsible for it in case something happens. Typical, but understandable. Bakkt is providing warehousing for physically-settled Bitcoin futures for exactly that reason, and it should be the icing on the cake for institutions who have been sitting on the sidelines so far.
2. Physically-settled futures: Back in 2017, everyone got super excited about CBOE futures, only to realize way too late (see: after the dump) that these futures had almost nothing to do with actual BTC. Physically-settled futures change all that. Instead of being settled in cash, these BTC futures actually deal in the asset itself – it needs to be held as part of the futures contract.
In this one-two setup, we’ve got a reason and way for institutions to buy BTC, even if for purely speculative purposes, and we’ve got qualified custodianship in the warehouse. The whole thing is such an obvious win for the crypto space.
We said that Bakkt dropping a date is different this time. Why is that, you ask? Because before, Bakkt waited for the CFTC to drop in and approve the custodianship angle, but after waiting and waiting, it never materialized.
So, Bakkt changed tack and went after the New York State Department of Financial Services for the green light. The September 23 live date is a result of that shift, and New York’s willingness to get the job done.
You can read Bakkt’s official statement about it all here: https://medium.com/bakkt-blog/cleared-to-launch–8dfc3e6f9ed0
Who Says Altcoins Aren’t Getting Adopted?
Altcoins have (understandably) been taking a lot of heat from HODLers. After doing nothing but lose sat value for the better part of 1.5 years, it’s tricky to stay upbeat about them.
And yet, there’s a delicate balance to maintain between becoming jaded and going overly optimistic. Zcoin is a perfect example of the benefits of keeping an eye on the right projects. Two days ago, the Zcoin team announced a major partnership with Satang App, a Thai payment app with five million merchants already on board.
The result of the partnership is that XZC is now spendable with those millions of merchants by Satang App’s estimated 50 million person userbase. Had you completely checked out of the crypto news cycle, you’d have easily missed this, despite potentially maintaining that no one uses crypto.
It’s the little things that count – they add up and make the big picture even sweeter.
Regarding the noscript of this update…well, sorry, we just couldn’t help ourselves. Glad to have you with us on this fine Monday afternoon, morning, night, or hell, maybe it’s even Tuesday where you are.
Yesterday, Bakkt announced it would open physically-settled futures trading on September 23. That’s only about a year later than anticipated, but better late than never, right? Now, the skeptics out there are saying (with a smug smile, no doubt) that since Bakkt already delayed several times, nothing is keeping them from doing so again.
After all, this isn’t the first (or second) time Bakkt has hit us with a date for release. However, optimists that we are, we think it’s different this time.
Bakkt is a Big Deal
Bakkt is bringing two massive infrastructural changes to the crypto table. On their own, each would be a big deal, but together – well, that’s what really gets us excited.
1. Bitcoin Warehousing: Institutions want to buy Bitcoin, but they have no idea how to store it. Even if they did, they want someone else to be responsible for it in case something happens. Typical, but understandable. Bakkt is providing warehousing for physically-settled Bitcoin futures for exactly that reason, and it should be the icing on the cake for institutions who have been sitting on the sidelines so far.
2. Physically-settled futures: Back in 2017, everyone got super excited about CBOE futures, only to realize way too late (see: after the dump) that these futures had almost nothing to do with actual BTC. Physically-settled futures change all that. Instead of being settled in cash, these BTC futures actually deal in the asset itself – it needs to be held as part of the futures contract.
In this one-two setup, we’ve got a reason and way for institutions to buy BTC, even if for purely speculative purposes, and we’ve got qualified custodianship in the warehouse. The whole thing is such an obvious win for the crypto space.
We said that Bakkt dropping a date is different this time. Why is that, you ask? Because before, Bakkt waited for the CFTC to drop in and approve the custodianship angle, but after waiting and waiting, it never materialized.
So, Bakkt changed tack and went after the New York State Department of Financial Services for the green light. The September 23 live date is a result of that shift, and New York’s willingness to get the job done.
You can read Bakkt’s official statement about it all here: https://medium.com/bakkt-blog/cleared-to-launch–8dfc3e6f9ed0
Who Says Altcoins Aren’t Getting Adopted?
Altcoins have (understandably) been taking a lot of heat from HODLers. After doing nothing but lose sat value for the better part of 1.5 years, it’s tricky to stay upbeat about them.
And yet, there’s a delicate balance to maintain between becoming jaded and going overly optimistic. Zcoin is a perfect example of the benefits of keeping an eye on the right projects. Two days ago, the Zcoin team announced a major partnership with Satang App, a Thai payment app with five million merchants already on board.
The result of the partnership is that XZC is now spendable with those millions of merchants by Satang App’s estimated 50 million person userbase. Had you completely checked out of the crypto news cycle, you’d have easily missed this, despite potentially maintaining that no one uses crypto.
It’s the little things that count – they add up and make the big picture even sweeter.
Like a wearying prizefighter, BTC is doggedly remaining in the ring despite appearances of fading energy.
BTC is currently trading at just a touch above $10,053. It fell abruptly to this level after a swift rejection during its pursuit of $11K zone. That attempt, though promising, was done on unconvincing volume.
Even now, volume remains shallow, signaling disinterest around current prices. However, despite this interruption of BTC’s march toward the moon, like Agent Mulder in the X-Files, we want to believe.
Bitcoin’s narrative, which has been lacking in recent weeks, is beginning to regain strength as Bakkt comes into the frame along with an ETF decision looming on the horizon. Bakkt’s physically-settled bitcoin futures are due to go live on September 23, and shortly after, on October 19, is the SEC’s final deadline for ruling on the VanEck/SolidX Bitcoin ETF.
Of the various proposals delivered to the SEC, the VanEck/SolidX ETF is roundly believed to have the best odds for approval. Market sentiment needs a narrative. Without an objective on the horizon, even if it’s a source of insecurity (such as the ETF, which hinges on a yes or no answer), sentiment falls away along with interest.
To see how much interest has waned since BTC fell away from its parabolic advance, check the Google Trend chart at the bottom of this post.
However, Bitcoin values may stabilize in time based on an often-overlooked aspect of the cryptocurrency financial ecosystem: cryptocurrency loans.
Crypto Loan Industry Hitting All-Time Highs
Crypto-collateralized loans are going from peak to peak as they lock-in value in the crypto-financial ecosystem. Graychain, the world’s first crypto credit bureau, recently released a report detailing the estimated $5 billion crypto loans that have gone out to borrowers up to now.
The way crypto collateralized loans work is simple. Say you want to take out a loan – you choose a lender like Celsius, Nexo, Unchained, or the various other companies available, then deposit your crypto on the platform. You’ll need to deposit crypto worth roughly 2x the loan amount (i.e., for a loan of $10,000 you’ll need to deposit $20,000 worth of collateral).
Part of the appeal behind crypto loans is that you don’t need to worry about credit or employment checks – the only thing that matters is that you’ve got the crypto to back the loan. Even if you don’t, there are some companies, like Salt Lending, who let you get away with riskier loan terms.
What all this means for the crypto ecosystem is that more and more people are locking in BTC, ETH, LTC, XRP, BCH, and other leading digital currencies for the duration of a loan term. Loan terms are commonly between 12 and 36 months.
It’s not only borrowers who are improving the HODL ratio of crypto. Lenders are enjoying the benefits of loaning their crypto on platforms like ETHLend, Dharma, and Compound at rates between 6–11% annual interest. To loan crypto and accrue interest, the process is roughly the same as borrowing – just lock it into a wallet on the platform of your choice.
The emergence of cryptocurrency lending also means that there is less incentive for selling crypto to fiat. Doing so is not only a taxable event, but it also means you’ll miss out on potential future gains. Instead of selling, cryptocurrency investors now have the option of leveraging their holdings.
Doing so not only keeps investors in the game but also holds value where it belongs – on the blockchain.
BTC is currently trading at just a touch above $10,053. It fell abruptly to this level after a swift rejection during its pursuit of $11K zone. That attempt, though promising, was done on unconvincing volume.
Even now, volume remains shallow, signaling disinterest around current prices. However, despite this interruption of BTC’s march toward the moon, like Agent Mulder in the X-Files, we want to believe.
Bitcoin’s narrative, which has been lacking in recent weeks, is beginning to regain strength as Bakkt comes into the frame along with an ETF decision looming on the horizon. Bakkt’s physically-settled bitcoin futures are due to go live on September 23, and shortly after, on October 19, is the SEC’s final deadline for ruling on the VanEck/SolidX Bitcoin ETF.
Of the various proposals delivered to the SEC, the VanEck/SolidX ETF is roundly believed to have the best odds for approval. Market sentiment needs a narrative. Without an objective on the horizon, even if it’s a source of insecurity (such as the ETF, which hinges on a yes or no answer), sentiment falls away along with interest.
To see how much interest has waned since BTC fell away from its parabolic advance, check the Google Trend chart at the bottom of this post.
However, Bitcoin values may stabilize in time based on an often-overlooked aspect of the cryptocurrency financial ecosystem: cryptocurrency loans.
Crypto Loan Industry Hitting All-Time Highs
Crypto-collateralized loans are going from peak to peak as they lock-in value in the crypto-financial ecosystem. Graychain, the world’s first crypto credit bureau, recently released a report detailing the estimated $5 billion crypto loans that have gone out to borrowers up to now.
The way crypto collateralized loans work is simple. Say you want to take out a loan – you choose a lender like Celsius, Nexo, Unchained, or the various other companies available, then deposit your crypto on the platform. You’ll need to deposit crypto worth roughly 2x the loan amount (i.e., for a loan of $10,000 you’ll need to deposit $20,000 worth of collateral).
Part of the appeal behind crypto loans is that you don’t need to worry about credit or employment checks – the only thing that matters is that you’ve got the crypto to back the loan. Even if you don’t, there are some companies, like Salt Lending, who let you get away with riskier loan terms.
What all this means for the crypto ecosystem is that more and more people are locking in BTC, ETH, LTC, XRP, BCH, and other leading digital currencies for the duration of a loan term. Loan terms are commonly between 12 and 36 months.
It’s not only borrowers who are improving the HODL ratio of crypto. Lenders are enjoying the benefits of loaning their crypto on platforms like ETHLend, Dharma, and Compound at rates between 6–11% annual interest. To loan crypto and accrue interest, the process is roughly the same as borrowing – just lock it into a wallet on the platform of your choice.
The emergence of cryptocurrency lending also means that there is less incentive for selling crypto to fiat. Doing so is not only a taxable event, but it also means you’ll miss out on potential future gains. Instead of selling, cryptocurrency investors now have the option of leveraging their holdings.
Doing so not only keeps investors in the game but also holds value where it belongs – on the blockchain.