BREAKING: Eye witnesses report that Iran has struck a nuclear facility in Dimona, Israel.
Dow losses hit -900 points on the day as Iran’s retaliation continues.
Dow losses hit -900 points on the day as Iran’s retaliation continues.
It's Wall Street vs Main Street:
Professional investors sold $4.2 billion in US equities last week, according to Bank of America.
Over the last 4 weeks, institutional selling reached $2.0 billion per week on average.
On the other hand, retail investors bought $700 million last week, bringing the 4-week average of purchases to $400 billion.
Over the last 12 weeks, individual investors have purchased $1.6 billion in US stocks on average each week.
As the market rebounded, professional investors dumped stocks while retail bought.
The sentiment gap between institutional and retail investors is historic.
Professional investors sold $4.2 billion in US equities last week, according to Bank of America.
Over the last 4 weeks, institutional selling reached $2.0 billion per week on average.
On the other hand, retail investors bought $700 million last week, bringing the 4-week average of purchases to $400 billion.
Over the last 12 weeks, individual investors have purchased $1.6 billion in US stocks on average each week.
As the market rebounded, professional investors dumped stocks while retail bought.
The sentiment gap between institutional and retail investors is historic.
BREAKING: Senior Iranian Military Officials say the conflict will spread to US military basis in the region in the coming days, per Iran’s Fars News.
This is remarkable:
The global stock market cap to global GDP ratio is now at 117%, the second-highest in history.
This ratio has increased by 27% over the last 5 years and sits only below 2022 levels.
Since2008, global market cap has risen twice as fast as as global GDP.
To put this into perspective, at the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak, this percentage was at 110%.
Meanwhile, the US stock market cap to GDP ratio has reached a massive 201%, just 4 percentage points away from an all-time high.
Valuations are rising far faster than economic growth.
The global stock market cap to global GDP ratio is now at 117%, the second-highest in history.
This ratio has increased by 27% over the last 5 years and sits only below 2022 levels.
Since2008, global market cap has risen twice as fast as as global GDP.
To put this into perspective, at the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak, this percentage was at 110%.
Meanwhile, the US stock market cap to GDP ratio has reached a massive 201%, just 4 percentage points away from an all-time high.
Valuations are rising far faster than economic growth.
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BREAKING: Russia's Foreign Ministry says Russia and the US are in contact about the conflict in the Middle East.
I will be joining CNBC at 4:00 PM ET to give @KobeissiLetter's outlook after another busy week.
Trade deals, jobs data, and next week's Fed meeting are all in the spotlight.
All while the S&P 500 is set for its first 9-day win streak in 20 years.
Tune in LIVE to hear more!
Trade deals, jobs data, and next week's Fed meeting are all in the spotlight.
All while the S&P 500 is set for its first 9-day win streak in 20 years.
Tune in LIVE to hear more!
It's a great day in Miami!
I’m in Miami to speak at @GrantCardone’s Wealth Conference at 11 AM ET today.
Conference attendees will hear about my views on the macroeconomy and some unique @KobeissiLetter insights.
Looking forward to meeting as many of you as possible!
I’m in Miami to speak at @GrantCardone’s Wealth Conference at 11 AM ET today.
Conference attendees will hear about my views on the macroeconomy and some unique @KobeissiLetter insights.
Looking forward to meeting as many of you as possible!
Looking forward to joining Charles Payne, @cvpayne, in studio today at 2:35 PM ET on Fox Business.
Will be discussing @KobeissiLetter's outlook into the June Fed meeting and beyond.
Markets are now less than 2% away from a new all time high.
Tune in LIVE at 2:35 PM ET!
Will be discussing @KobeissiLetter's outlook into the June Fed meeting and beyond.
Markets are now less than 2% away from a new all time high.
Tune in LIVE at 2:35 PM ET!
Shocking stat of the day:
The US Debt-to-GDP ratio could soar to 218% over the next 30 years under the new spending bill (OBBBA).
This would occur if the bill were made permanent and interest rates stayed near current levels, according to CRFB estimates.
That scenario would add a whopping $55 TRILLION to the federal debt by the end of Fiscal Year 2054.
As written, OBBBA is expected to increase the public debt by $15 trillion, pushing the Debt-to-GDP ratio to 172%.
If made permanent, the bill would raise total debt by $31 trillion, driving the ratio to 190%.
The US is on an increasingly unsustainable fiscal path.
The US Debt-to-GDP ratio could soar to 218% over the next 30 years under the new spending bill (OBBBA).
This would occur if the bill were made permanent and interest rates stayed near current levels, according to CRFB estimates.
That scenario would add a whopping $55 TRILLION to the federal debt by the end of Fiscal Year 2054.
As written, OBBBA is expected to increase the public debt by $15 trillion, pushing the Debt-to-GDP ratio to 172%.
If made permanent, the bill would raise total debt by $31 trillion, driving the ratio to 190%.
The US is on an increasingly unsustainable fiscal path.
BREAKING: Retail investors purchased a net $3.2 billion of stocks in the five days through Wednesday.
This is a sharp reversal from the prior week's muted activity, according to JPMorgan data.
Individual investors favored ETFs over single stocks, pouring money into broad market, gold, and energy equity funds.
Interestingly, retail interest in Magnificent 7 remains dull, accounting for just 2% of retail's portfolio allocations.
Retail investors are diversifying.
This is a sharp reversal from the prior week's muted activity, according to JPMorgan data.
Individual investors favored ETFs over single stocks, pouring money into broad market, gold, and energy equity funds.
Interestingly, retail interest in Magnificent 7 remains dull, accounting for just 2% of retail's portfolio allocations.
Retail investors are diversifying.
The Kobeissi Letter for the week of June 30th has been published and may be viewed through the link below:
bit.ly/TheKobeissiLet…
The Chart of the Week for the week of June 30th has been published. View or sign up for FREE through the link below:
bit.ly/TheKobeissiLet…
The Chart of the Week for the week of June 30th has been published. View or sign up for FREE through the link below:
Looking forward to joining Charles Payne, @cvpayne, in studio today at 2:35 PM ET on Fox Business.
Will be discussing @KobeissiLetter's outlook into the June Fed meeting and beyond.
Markets are now less than 2% away from a new all time high.
Tune in LIVE at 2:35 PM ET!
Will be discussing @KobeissiLetter's outlook into the June Fed meeting and beyond.
Markets are now less than 2% away from a new all time high.
Tune in LIVE at 2:35 PM ET!
I will be joining Charles Payne, @cvpayne, in studio today at 2:35 PM ET on Fox Business.
Looking forward to providing @KobeissiLetter's outlook on stocks and commodities.
Our view of the S&P 500 hitting a record came to fruition, but what's next?
Tune in LIVE at 2:35 PM ET!
Looking forward to providing @KobeissiLetter's outlook on stocks and commodities.
Our view of the S&P 500 hitting a record came to fruition, but what's next?
Tune in LIVE at 2:35 PM ET!
Today's jobs report was pivotal.
There are 2 ways to get the Fed to cut interest rates:
1. Lower inflation
2. Weaker labor market
-258,000 jobs were just revised down from the May and June jobs report.
Unemployment rose to 4.2% and July missed expectations.
As we at @KobeissiLetter have been highlighting for the last couple of months, the labor market has been weakening under the surface.
Inflation is clearly not heading to 2% in the near future, and if Trump wants cuts, it will take a weaker job market.
Today's headline numbers are shifting attention from inflation to the weakening labor market, which Trump will blame on Powell as he continues to call for rate cuts.
Powell will continue to lean on the inflation/tariff narrative until the labor market becomes too weak to ignore.
Keep watching the labor market.
There are 2 ways to get the Fed to cut interest rates:
1. Lower inflation
2. Weaker labor market
-258,000 jobs were just revised down from the May and June jobs report.
Unemployment rose to 4.2% and July missed expectations.
As we at @KobeissiLetter have been highlighting for the last couple of months, the labor market has been weakening under the surface.
Inflation is clearly not heading to 2% in the near future, and if Trump wants cuts, it will take a weaker job market.
Today's headline numbers are shifting attention from inflation to the weakening labor market, which Trump will blame on Powell as he continues to call for rate cuts.
Powell will continue to lean on the inflation/tariff narrative until the labor market becomes too weak to ignore.
Keep watching the labor market.
BREAKING: Fed Governor Kugler has submitted a letter resigning from her position as a member of the Federal Reserve Board.
President Trump has said he is “happy” that he will have a position to fill on the Fed board.
President Trump has said he is “happy” that he will have a position to fill on the Fed board.
BREAKING: Indian officials say India will buy Russian oil despite President Trump’s threats.
China’s real estate downturn is worsening:
New-home sales by China’s 100 largest developers fell -24% YoY in July, the largest decline in 10 months.
Month-over-month sales fell -38%, marking the steepest monthly drop this year.
This comes after June marked the biggest monthly decline in prices of new homes in 8 months.
Meanwhile, demand for new homes in cities is estimated to stay ~75% below its 2017 peak levels over the next several years, according to Goldman Sachs.
China's 2008 is happening now.
New-home sales by China’s 100 largest developers fell -24% YoY in July, the largest decline in 10 months.
Month-over-month sales fell -38%, marking the steepest monthly drop this year.
This comes after June marked the biggest monthly decline in prices of new homes in 8 months.
Meanwhile, demand for new homes in cities is estimated to stay ~75% below its 2017 peak levels over the next several years, according to Goldman Sachs.
China's 2008 is happening now.