Demand didn’t just show up—it brought friends: the bid-to-cover climbed to a healthy 2.418, up from 2.365 last month and the strongest since June. The internals were equally well-behaved, with foreign buyers scooping up 66.8% (up from 65.4% in December and comfortably above the six-auction average of 63.7%). Direct bidders took a modest 21.3%, slightly below their recent norm, leaving dealers with just 11.95%—below average and mercifully light on inventory.

Bottom line: a blockbuster auction—and further proof that much of Wall Street still hasn’t read the memo that in the coming Trump-era stagflation, the former “risk-free” asset may now be the riskiest thing on the menu.

The Macro Butler sat down with Steve Yang of Natural Resource Stocks to crack open the Venezuelan Pandora’s box—Fortress America, ripple effects in the Taiwan Strait, and what all this geopolitical theatre really means for your portfolio (it’s not just noise).

So pour yourself a properly overpriced coffee ☕️, get comfortable, and prepare for a calm but unsettling upgrade to your worldview.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-natural-resource-stocks-6e5

Thanks to the shutdown circus, November retail sales only showed up on January 14—fashionably late, but still lively. Sales jumped 0.6%, the biggest gain since July, powered by a rebound in car buying and holiday shoppers who apparently ignored their budgets. Strip out autos and sales still rose 0.5%, with 10 of 13 categories in the green, from sweaters to sporting goods. Gas prices helped, EV incentives stopped hurting, and restaurants enjoyed a 0.6% rebound too.

Once adjusted for the ever-creative CP-Lie, “real” retail sales—helped by the recent cooling in price increases—are only just back to their December 2024 level and remain stuck in economic no man’s land, a place that has historically been a very bad neighborhood for the U.S. economy.

Bottom line: despite affordability angst and job jitters, the consumer is still very much alive—especially the wealthy one, armed with Black Friday deals, Buy Now Pay Later, and zero chill.

After the triumphalist CPI headlines meant to reassure voters that affordability has been heroically restored, U.S. wholesale inflation politely ruined the party by ticking higher in November. The Producer Price Index rose 0.2% month over month, up from 0.1% previously, thanks largely to higher energy costs, while core PPI (excluding food and energy) sat perfectly still—its calmest showing in three months. The message is less “inflation defeated” and more “inflation taking a strategic pause.” Companies appear reluctant to fully pass on higher costs—whether from energy, tariffs, or imports—for fear of crushing already price-sensitive demand, effectively playing margin-defense rather than price offense as consumers are increasingly allergic to higher prices. Beneath the surface, key PPI components that feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE gauge sent mixed signals: portfolio management fees jumped, healthcare costs crept higher, airline fares fell, and services overall refused to cooperate.

Focusing on what actually matters to investors and Corporate America—rather than the headline victory laps—the spread between core CPI and core PPI slipped back into the red in December. Translation: input costs are once again outrunning what companies can charge, a time-tested leading indicator of margin compression and, eventually, an equity market “re-education” on valuations.

In a nutshell: Behind the “inflation is dead” headlines, wholesale prices quietly reaccelerated, margins slipped back into danger territory, and Corporate America was reminded that when costs rise faster than prices, equity valuations eventually get a reality check.

With the rule of law seemingly on extended vacation—domestically and on the global stage after Donald Copperfield’s geopolitically chaotic playbook—nothing says “order” like the U.S. Mint hitting the pause button on silver coin sales. As silver prices blasted past $90 per ounce, the Mint graciously decided it can’t figure out how to price collectible coins anymore and temporarily suspended all silver numismatic product sales while it recalibrates prices.

Two weeks after China tightened the screws on silver exports, the U.S. Mint apparently decided pricing coins was now a contact sport. Starting January 1, 2026, China didn’t ban silver outright, but limited exports to 44 government-approved firms producing at least 80 tonnes annually and jumping through environmental and quality hoops. The effect? Fewer silver leaving China, spot silver hitting record highs, and the Mint waving a white flag. Even a “partial” export rule can wreak global havoc—and apparently, it only takes a bureaucratic hiccup in Shanghai to freeze coin sales in Washington.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-names-companies-allowed-export-silver-over-2026-2027-2025-12-30/

In a nutshell, with China tightening silver exports and prices surging past $90, the U.S. Mint threw up its hands and hit pause on coin sales, proving even Washington can’t price chaos.

When the drums of trade war beat loudest, many predicted the Middle Kingdom would stumble. Instead, China bowed politely, kept exporting, and recorded a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025. While tariffs tried to close one gate, factories simply found others—shipping more to Southeast Asia and Europe and climbing quietly up the value chain. As Confucius might note: when the path is blocked, the wise merchant takes another road. The lesson is simple noise is temporary, supply chains are adaptable, and those who underestimate patience often end up surprised.

China built its factories when confidence was high and globalization smiled. Now that confidence frowns at home, those same factories bow deeply and ship goods abroad at almost any price. Exports rise, margins shrink, and tensions grow—such is balance. Shipments to the U.S. fell 20%, yet China simply sells to the rest of the village, for a wise merchant does not rely on one customer. Weak consumption and a troubled property sector mean exports now carry the economy on their back, producing a $1.2 trillion surplus that looks impressive but walks with a limp. As Confucius might say: when capital flees, controls tighten, and exports do all the work, stability is spoken of—but contraction is already clearing its throat while the rise of China is unstoppable as the Middle Kingdom is shaping itself to dominate the world by the next decade as its time is coming.

In a nutshell, as trade-war noise peaked, China quietly rerouted its factories, logged a $1.2 trillion surplus, and proved that when one gate closes the Middle Kingdom simply builds ten more—though exporting strength today may be masking the strains of tomorrow.

The Macro Butler joined Umar Tasleem on Türkiye’s Diplomacy (A-News) for a cordial autopsy of the “Don-Roe Doctrine,” exploring its financial consequences in a world where the rule of law has quietly stepped aside and the rule of the game now seems to be written in social media tweets.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-turkiyes-diplomacy-ec3

The Macro Butler sat down with The Contrarian Capitalist (Robert Smallbone) to calmly dissect a world where the rule of law is no longer the rule of the game—and, with a straight face, discuss how investors might profit from the rising tide of geopolitical chaos heading into 2026.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-the-contrarian-capitalist-2bd

The Macro Butler sat down with Cris Sheridan from Financial Sense to explain why the “Magnificent Seven” already lost their capes to the “Shiny Seven,” as geopolitically induced supply-chain chaos and strategic shortages send investors back to the original superpower: commodities—needed to fuel AI, electrify everything, and help build Fortress America.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-financial-sense-15012026

As the drums of war grow louder and regime-change risk moves from theory to timeline, capital flight has begun in Iran. More than $1.5 billion reportedly flowed to Dubai within 48 hours, much of it via cryptocurrency—a familiar exit route when confidence collapses. According to regional sources, figures close to the regime, including members of the Supreme Leader’s inner circle, are believed to be securing their escape before the door closes.


https://www.iranintl.com/en/202601156396

Moving money offshore may feel clever, but governments have a long memory and even longer reach. The UAE enforces UN sanctions, MLATs turn tax treaties into asset-freezing boomerangs, and crypto—despite the marketing—is about as “off-grid” as a loyalty card.

The moment funds hit Dubai, the blockchain lit up like a Christmas tree, with Washington happily following the trail using tools designed precisely for this purpose.
Governments tolerate crypto the way they tolerate house cats: only if they stay indoors, declawed, and obedient. Tehran’s theatrics and Washington’s dragnet simply confirm the same endgame—sovereignty gone, trust gone, credibility exhausted. When a regime runs out of belief, history shows the countdown doesn’t need a press release.

While Kyiv’s leader rehearses Davos-approved slogans about sacrifice and destiny, reality files for desertion: 200,000 soldiers have gone AWOL—more than the entire UK military. The new defense minister now calmly announces a nationwide manhunt for two million citizens guilty of the ultimate crime in managed democracies: refusing to be mobilized. In this brave new order, slogans march forward, bodies disappear, and arithmetic—not ideology—quietly exposes the lie.



https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/14/world/ukraines-new-defense-chief-reveals-200-000-soldiers-have-gone-awol-and-2-million-are-draft-dodging