More bad news for Taiwan:
The Philippines will not allow “any offensive actions” from the bases it has opened to US troops, President Marcos said Monday.

Dr. Mordechai Kedar, one of my favorite experts on Middle East affairs and Islam, published yesterday this article on “Makor Rishon” Hebrew language online newspaper:

An expatriate from the Middle East, a supporter of Israel, who lives in Europe and is in constant contact with people in Iran and Iraq - conveyed to me their assessment that Iran is planning to launch a combined attack on Israel in the foreseeable future that will include all the forces at its disposal in the Arab countries:

In Lebanon - Hezbollah and Hamas with many thousands of missiles and UAVs, some of them accurate.

In Syria - 17 combat units ("militias") armed and ready: Fatimiun, Zinbioun, Nujabaa', Hezbollah, Abu Al-Fachal Brigade, Atsa'ab Ahl al-Haq, Khorsani Brigade, and more. Iran has transferred to Syria a very large number of missiles and UAVs and these are ready to be launched.

In Iraq - dozens of militias, armed with missiles and UAVs.

In Yemen - the Houthis, who have missiles and long-range UAVs that reach Israel.

In Gaza - Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad with missiles capable of disabling the Israel Defense Forces and Air Force bases.

It is likely that Iran will not send anything from its territory to Israel in order not to expose itself to retaliation


So much for the assessment that came from Iraq. Hence my commentary.

Under the pretext of the duty of the Muslim world to save the Al-Aqsa Mosque from the Israeli occupation and oppression, Iran will conduct a staged, comprehensive, integrated and coordinated attack on Israel. The first phase will be a shower of missiles and UAVs from all the aforementioned arenas together, and the Iranian estimate is that the stock of interceptors of the "Iron Dome" will run out within two to three hours from the start of the air attack, after which the Israeli skies will be open and the air force will be damaged and grounded.

The first phase, the air, will be accompanied by a cyber attack on Israeli infrastructure systems. After a full day of a cyber attack and a rain of missiles and UAVs that will hit air force bases, navy bases, army bases, electricity, computing, communication, road and water infrastructures, the second phase will begin: a coordinated ground attack from Lebanon, Syria and Gaza by infantry, mounted forces On dirt bikes and ATVs, equipped with anti-tank weapons, they will cross the obstacles and attack the Israeli ground forces in order to reach Jewish settlements as quickly as possible.

The calculation of the Iranians is that the mobilization of the reserves will take several days and at most will be partial because of the mess that will be created throughout the country. IDF reinforcements will not arrive in time to the various fronts and therefore the regular forces will collapse within hours in the face of the ground attack as happened in the Canal and the Golan during the Yom Kippur war. The invasion of ground forces from Syria, Lebanon and Gaza will focus on Israeli settlements with the aim of demoralizing the Israeli public and forcing the government to surrender in order to save the lives of the many Israelis who will be captured by the Arab and Iranian militias. The Israeli media and especially the social media groups will increase the panic among the Israeli public.

It is not clear what role the Iranians ascribe to the Palestinians in the war. However, it is likely that Hamas and the Palestinian Authority will push them to do everything in their power to harm Israelis, the army, the police and civilians moving on the roads, in addition to attacks on settlements and military bases.

Also, the Iranians expect Arabs in the Galilee and Negev to carry out actions against the IDF and the state such as blocking roads, damaging bridges, spilling oil on roads, blocking intersections, damaging high voltage lines and attacking Jewish settlements.

("Operation Guardian of the Walls times 4") Because the National Guard Not operational yet, these operations will cause great damage to Israel and its ability to withstand the ground attack and on the other hand will charge a very low price to those carrying out these operations.

The international reactions:

Russia and China, Iran's allies, will "call on both sides to cease violence", will support Iran almost openly and provide it with information about what is happening in Israel. Turkey will join the call to cease violent actions but will implicitly support Iran. In the Arab and Islamic world, crowds will come out for demonstrations of support for Iran and its action to eliminate the Zionist entity, similar to the support that the crowds gave to Hassan Nasrallah in the Second Lebanon War, 2006. This time, unlike in 2006, Saudi Arabia will not take a negative position towards the attack on Israel.

The American and European governments will not intervene militarily, but will content themselves with words because no one in the West is looking for another combat arena than the Ukrainian one, which empties NATO's ammunition depots and dries up its leaders' desire to intervene in wars that are not theirs. Some will see the Iranian attack as an opportunity to get rid of the "headache" that Israel It has been a reason for them for years, and this view has intensified in recent months after the internal mess in the State of Israel created for it the image of a conflicted and messy country with a depleted civil force that has lost all will to mobilize and fight, and on the other hand - a directionless, irresponsible, ungovernable and powerless government that cannot adequately treat even blocking roads.

From the point of view of the West, the loss of Israel is not so terrible, because in any case the Middle East turned its back on the West when Saudi Arabia and its Gulf partners - countries much more important than Israel - decided to turn their backs on the weak Western coalition and join the strong and growing Eastern Alliance that includes Russia, China, Iran , North Korea, Venezuela and more.

The Iranian government is very impressed by the continued desire, the American in particular and the West in general, to please Iran, remove the sanctions from it and accept it as a respected member of the family of nations while demonstrably ignoring the Iranian run towards the bomb. This Western behavior instills in the hearts of the decision makers in Iran the feeling that no one in the West will do anything and half anything on the practical military level to stop an air and ground attack on Israel like the one described above.

The American forces present in eastern Syria are meant to protect American interests, not Israeli ones, and Iran has already demonstrated several times that it has no problem attacking these American forces with missiles and drones. The American administration knows the negative attitude of the liberal majority in American Jewry towards Israel, and in particular in the months the latter, and therefore he is not afraid that he will pay too great a public and political price if he lets Israel deal with the Iranian invasion on its own. Biden will of course declare to the cameras that "Israel has the right to defend itself", but he will try not to take any real steps.

A coordinated missile and UAV attack is not a theory; Iran already did such a thing to Saudi Arabia on September 14, 2019, and this attack caused enormous damage to Saudi Arabia's ability to export oil for many months. This was probably the reason for Saudi Arabia's avoidance of joining the Abraham Accords and the factor that pushed Saudi Arabia - together with other parties - to recently abandon the understandings it had with Israel and join the Iranian camp. The US under Trump's presidency and Europe did nothing against Iran following the attack in 2019, so it is certain that today they will do nothing when Biden is the president.