🔹India 🇮🇳is considering imposing an export ban on four key metals; lithium, beryllium, niobium, and tantalum because of their importance in powering sectors critical to national security and technological advancements. India’s Parliament also passed the Mines and Minerals Amendment Bill, which will allow commercial mining ⛏in India, of titanium and zirconium addition to the previous mentioned metals. The Bill now awaits the President’s assent.

🔹India discovered a large lithium deposit near Kashmir, this year but is about a decade away from final production. Iran 🇮🇷 discovered its first lithium ore deposit in March, making it the world's 2nd largest reserve. Australia 🇦🇺 has identified at least five mines of of lithium and cobalt for Indian entities to participate in exploration/production. India is discussing the possibility of FTAs with Lithium Triangle countries Peru 🇵🇪 and Chile.

🔹A coalition of US 🇺🇸 tech giants has also protested the abrupt way in which India introduced tech import restrictions this month. The restriction requires Indian companies to get a license before importing PCs, laptops, or servers in hopes of boosting domestic tech production as more countries try to have less dependence on China's 🇨🇳 dominance of critical sectors.

🔹More than 50 companies from around the world are jostling to negotiate lithium deals under the Chilean 🇨🇱 gov't's new plan to have the state take a majority stake in the lithium 🔋industry where the state would take a controlling interest in each partnership. Mexico 🇲🇽 is also reviewing foreign companies that have active mining concessions, with plans to follow in Chile's footsteps.

🔹Saudi Arabia’s 🇸🇦 US Treasury holdings fell to a more than six-year low in June. Saudi Arabia, the largest Middle East holder of US gov't debt, sold more than $3 billion of its shares in June. This brought down Riyadh's total holdings to $108.1 billion, the lowest since December 2016. The Saudi sovereign wealth fund’s disclosed holdings of US 🇺🇸-traded stocks rose almost 10% in value to about $39 billion in the second quarter.

🔹Historically Saudi Arabia used to keep most of its reserves in US Treasuries 💵, but with the country’s diversification strategy Vision 2030 backed by the country’s sovereign wealth fund results in investments being redirected domestically. Oil revenues, are fueling these projects.

🔹Saudi Arabia's cut in oil 🛢 production through OPEC has hindered the US from re-filling its Strategic Petroleum Reserve as oil prices have increased. Closer ties between China and the Middle East have raised concerns in Washington DC 🇺🇸 and European 🇪🇺 capitals after Saudi Arabia signed $10 billion worth of investment agreements with Chinese 🇨🇳companies in June.

🔹The UAE 🇦🇪 offloaded $4 billion worth of US treasury bonds in June, making it the second consecutive month the country sold US government debt. Its holding fell to $65.2 billion from $69 billion in May 2023. Kuwait 🇰🇼 shares of the US debt instrument fell to $40.6 billion in June from $41.4 billion in May. However, much this was off-set by Japan 🇯🇵 increasing US Treasury purchases for June.

🔹China 🇨🇳, the second-biggest holder of US debt, has reduced its stake to the lowest level in more than 14 years. It now holds about $850 billion of US debt, lower than its all-time high of over $1.2 trillion.

Video source - Sean Foo

BRICS Summit highlights. Johannesburg Aug. 22 - 24.

🔹Argentina🇦🇷, Egypt 🇪🇬, the UAE 🇦🇪, Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦, Iran 🇮🇷 and Ethiopia 🇪🇹 will become full-members on Jan. 1, 2024, (the first day of Russia's presidency of BRICS). More than 20 countries have applied to join BRICS as Algeria 🇩🇿 and Indonesia 🇮🇩 are proposed to be the next future members. BRICS will develop a BRICS partner country model for even further expansion.

🔹Member states finance ministries & central banks to consider the possibility of launching national currencies-based payment instruments and platforms. BRICS Payment Task Force to begin study of members cross-border payments systems.

🔹Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development does not expect any "quick breakthroughs" in the creation of a common currency of the BRICS 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦 nations. There could be, agreements on a basket of local currencies and payment systems so BRICS nations can pay each other based on a set of solutions comparing currency rates.

🔹However, the Russian 🇷🇺 Finance Ministry is discussing the possibility of a unit of account for the BRICS member countries. Not a single currency like in the EU but an alternative to the dollar 💵.

🔹The BRICS Summit declaration states they are in favor of UN 🇺🇳 reform and vow support for the expansion of the developing countries' representation in the UN Security Council. It also cites reforming the WTO and Bretton Woods financial institutions, including the IMF.

🔹India 🇮🇳 offers BRICS countries to establish a space research consortium as they already work on work on a satellite group of BRICS states.

🔹Brazil's 🇧🇷 Treasury Minister Fernando Haddad, confirmed that the Brazilian gov't wants to help Argentina 🇦🇷with exports using the Chinese 🇨🇳Yuan, instead of the dollar for payment. A guarantee, will be activated only if there is a default by the Argentines even in yuan.

🔹The guarantee to be given will be from $100 million to $140 million USD 💵 equivalent, with the conversion (yuan to Brazilian real) made by Banco do Brasil in London. After the exchange, Brazilian exporters will receive payments directly in real.

🔹The proposal is beneficial for Brazilian exporters 🚢, who face difficulties in closing deals with Argentines due to the lack of USD Forex reserves in Argentina which resulted in heavy devaluation of the Argentina Peso. Both countries have said they wanted to "advance discussions on a common South American currency" to be used for financial and trade flows.

🔹Bolivia 🇧🇴 recently started using the Chinese 🇨🇳 yuan to pay for imports and exports with China becoming the third country in South America (after Argentina 🇦🇷 and Brazil 🇧🇷), to do so. The IMF may have to accept the Chinese yuan as a currency for countries to settle their obligations with the IMF following Argentina’s recent debt repayment in yuan, since the yuan is part of the IMF's SDR basket of currencies.

🔹Discussion recently began on the revival of the regional bloc previously known as the Union of South American Nations, or UNASUR. The Southern Common Market (Mercosur), {a customs union comprising of 12 Latin American countries with a free intra-zone trade & a common trade policy} have aired concerns that the South American region is seriously affected by the restrictions and regulations imposed by the US financial system.

Video Source- CanalGov (Treasury Minister Fernando Haddad)

🔹Vietnam will join ASEAN members Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Singapore to establish cross-border payments mechanisms through the Regional Payment Connectivity (RPC) initiative. Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand have agreed to later facilitate cross-border transactions for financial assets like equities and government bonds in local currencies.

🔹These countries have a mandate to include other ASEAN 🇧🇳 🇰🇭 🇮🇩 🇱🇦🇲🇾 🇲🇲 🇵🇭 🇸🇬 🇹🇭 🇻🇳 members in the RPC initiative. Vietnam's financial authority in charge of domestic payment systems is currently in talks with the local industry to agree on a national QR system for 'instant' retail payments.

🔹Last month, Russia 🇷🇺, (meeting with ASEAN) called for starting consultations on the use of national currencies in mutual payments with ASEAN countries to bypass USD 💵 denominated transactions.

🔹ASEAN member Indonesia plan to use local currencies in bilateral trade with India 🇮🇳. In May, South Korea 🇰🇷 and Indonesia 🇮🇩 signed a MoU to cooperate on promoting the use of their currencies for bilateral transactions. The Bank of Indonesia is working on its own domestic card payment system as part of a strategy to reduce dependency on foreign systems and protect transactions from geopolitical fallout.

🔹Last November, an official meeting of all ASEAN nations' Finance Ministers & Central Bank Governors was held to discuss reduced dependence on the US Dollar, Euro, Yen, and British Pound from financial transactions and move to settlements in local currencies.

Video source - Bank Indonesia

🔹 Officers from the Gabonese 🇬🇦 Armed Forces have appointed the chief of the Republican Guard, General Brice Oligui Nguema, as the Central African country’s new ruler following the ouster of President Ali Bongo. Nguema was chosen to lead the former French colony’s transition council. The overthrown president had been placed under house arrest, while his son N. B. Valentin, as well as certain gov't officials, had been arrested for “high treason.”

🔹The military takeover follows August 26th's presidential election which was rigged for the now former President Ali Bongo winning with 64.27% of the vote. When counting of the votes was almost completed, the then Bongo led gov't cut off the country's internet and put a curfew in place citing the risk of violence.

🔹Gabon 🇬🇦 is the world’s second-biggest manganese producer after South Africa, and Comilog (a subsidiary of French owned Eramet) extracts 90% of Gabon’s manganese ⛏. Another subsidiary of the French 🇫🇷 controlled Eramet is Setrag, which operates the Trans-Gabon Railway, the country’s only railway, where the manganese and other raw materials (oil, wood, uranium) are exported out of the country.

🔹The TotalEnergies EP Gabon subsidiary is 58.28% owned by France's 🇫🇷 TotalEnergies SE, 25% by the Gabonese Republic and 16.72% by the public. It's Q2 2023 oil production was 15,700 bpd 🛢 with revenues amounting to $107 million for the quarter. Perenco, headquartered in London & Paris, extracts 65,000 bpd of oil and 680,000m3 of gas per day in Gabon.

🔹The UN 🇺🇳 Secretary General A. Guterres, the US 🇺🇸, Canada 🇨🇦, UK 🇬🇧 and France 🇫🇷 have all condemned the coup, calling for a return to "democratic, civilian-led governance". The EU 🇪🇺 calls for restraint from all parties in Gabon. The African Union’s Peace and Security Council decided to “immediately suspend” Gabon from its activities. The West controlled ECOWAS bloc has also condemned the coup. France has 400 troops based in Gabon.

🔹Oil prices hit 7-month highs amid an expected extension of a voluntary production cut by Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 of 1 million bpd into October and Russia 🇷🇺cutting exports by 300,000 bpd in September, following a 500,000 bpd cut in August. China's 🇨🇳 manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in August.

🔹The price of Russia’s flagship crude grade, Urals, averaged $74 per barrel in August, way above the G7/EU price cap of $60 as Western shippers find alternative shipping insurance providers for Urals cargo and Russia's shadow fleet 🚢 continue to deliver oil bypassing the price cap.

🔹Russia has been exploiting a loophole in the oil price cap by selling their crude to India 🇮🇳 at below the price cap, but overcharged for shipping costs (since shipping costs are not included in this price ceiling).

🔹The oil price cap is evidently failing as President Putin recently signed into law amendments in the tax code in the energy sector which will narrow the discount of Urals crude to Brent to $20 per barrel 🛢 from September from a $25 discount. Russia also raised its oil export levy to $21.40 per ton started on September 1, the highest level this year, with the previous oil export duty being $16.90 per ton.

🔹Moscow is unlikely to give in to the mandate discounted price in the foreseeable future. The EU 🇪🇺 will now be challenged to increase oil imports from countries without discounts, leaving Europe to face the surge in oil prices for the short term at least.

🔹The IEA reported Russia's revenue from oil exports for July hit the highest level 📈 in 2023 (up by $2.5 billion to $15.3 billion). The US's 🇺🇸 Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is still sitting at a near 40-year low of 349.5 million barrels.

🔹EU 🇪🇺 imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) were up 40% between January and July 2023. The EU is set to import record volumes of LNG🚢 from Russia 🇷🇺 this year, despite claims of cutting reliance on Russian energy. In the first 7 months of 2023, Belgium 🇧🇪 and Spain were the second and third-biggest buyers of Russian LNG behind China 🇨🇳. For this period, Russian LNG accounted for 21.6mn cubic metres (cm), or 16%, of the EU’s total 133.5mn cm of LNG imports.

🔹In that period, EU’s purchases of Russian LNG were worth $5.75 billion (5.29 billion euros). Spain is bought up 18% and the EU 52% of Russia’s LNG exports. Spain's 🇪🇸 Energy Minister T. Ribera ironically said Russian LNG should be part of EU talks on sanctions. The jump comes from a low base as the EU did not import significant amounts of LNG before Feb. 2022 due to its reliance on piped gas from Russia.

🔹The EU 🇪🇺 have worked so hard to wean themselves off piped Russian gas only to replace it with more expensive shipped equivalent from the US, Russia and others. EU officials have pointed to an overall effort to phase out Russian fossil fuels by 2027. EU energy ministers plan to ban Russian and Belarusian 🇧🇾 co.' s booking capacity on EU LNG infrastructure in an effort to find a legal way to prevent imports.

🔹The EU also banned Russian entities from storing gas in the bloc and prohibited most new investments in the Russian energy sector. Spot LNG prices have fallen significantly since last summer. As of last month, prices cooled by nearly 83% compared to 2022. The EU's gas storage tanks are nearly 92% full.

🔹However, market uncertainties, including the risk of strikes at LNG hubs in Australia 🇦🇺, or a spike in industrial demand can ignite volatility in European gas markets. A full energy crisis last year was avoided after LNG imports to Europe ballooned from 80 bcm in 2021 to 130 bcm in 2022, more or less replacing all the missing Russian gas.

🔹The prices of Vietnam's 🇻🇳 exported rice (the world's third-largest exporter after India and Thailand) remain the highest in the world, with 5% broken rice reaching US$638 per tonne, following India's 🇮🇳 recent ban on its largest rice export category (non-basmati white rice). At the Mekong Delta known as Vietnam's rice bowl, where 90% of the nation’s rice exports are grown, farmers said they can barely keep up with the demand.

🔹 Last month, India has imposed a 20% duty on exports of parboiled rice with immediate effect. Rice prices in key exporting countries have climbed around 20% since India's export ban. They have made an exemption for friendly countries, with export quotas of non-basmati white rice to Bhutan 🇧🇹, Mauritius 🇲🇺and Singapore 🇸🇬.

🔹Rice🌾 prices soared to the highest in almost 15 years in Asia on mounting concerns over global supplies as dry weather (drier conditions with the onset of El Nino) threatens production in Thailand.

🔹Last week, the Philippines 🇵🇭 (world's second-largest rice importer) imposed a price cap on retail rice due to soaring food inflation. Indonesia is looking to import rice from Cambodia 🇰🇭 and Myanmar 🇲🇲 to top up gov't stocks. Myanmar plans to temporarily restrict rice exports to control rising domestic prices. In July, The UAE banned rice exports and re-exports for four months.

🔹Earlier this year, Thailand 🇹🇭 saw strong demand & a strengthening Thai currency has also helped to push up dollar-denominated rice prices. In September 2022, India banned exports of broken rice and imposed a 20% duty on exports of various grades of rice. This came after planting areas of the crop declined by 13% due to heatwaves and drought. China 🇨🇳 is virtually self-sufficient in rice. Imports of rice only account for 3% of the nation's total demand.

Video source - CNA

The de-industrialisation of Germany 🇩🇪- Part 10:

🔹The HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index - which gauges activity in the manufacturing and services sectors -fell to 44.7 in August, from 48.5 in July, the lowest level since May 2020.

🔹German Chamber of Commerce and Industry Survey -
52% of co.'s say the 'green' energy transition has a negative impact on their own business.
32% of industrial co.'s plan relocation of capacities abroad or reduction of production in Germany.

🔹 Mail order retailer 📦, Klingel GmbH (Bell group) declares bankruptcy after 100 years in operation.

🔹German industrial 🏭 production weakened further in July, with energy-intensive industry approaching again the low, set in Dec. 2022.

🔹50,600 businesses closed down in H1 2023, an increase 📈 of 12.4% compared to H1 2022. In balance, there has been an increase in new start-ups. The number of corporate insolvencies rose 23.8% in July compared to July '22.

🔹 The outflow of capital from Germany since 2013 has exceeded $600 billion, with almost half of that happening in the last two years.

🔹Allensbach Survey -
58% of business executives said that Germany has passed its zenith.
76% of managers believe that concerns are justified over de-industrialization.

🔹 The ifo Business Climate Index (July 2023) has fallen 📉 for the third month in a row.

🔹The number of company bankruptcies in EU 🇪🇺 countries in Q2 2023 increased by 8.4% compared to Q1, reaching the highest level measured since 2015, when data began to be collected.

Previous parts on the de-industrialisation of Germany 🇩🇪:

💠 Part 9 - Aug. '23

💠 Part 8 - Jun. '23

💠 Part 7 - May '23

💠 Part 6 - Mar '23

💠 Part 5 - Feb. '23

💠 Part 4 - Jan. '23

💠 Part 2 and Part 3 - Nov. '22

💠 Part 1 - Oct. '22

Video source - AfD Clips

Gold Update:

🔹 China 🇨🇳 added to its gold reserves for a 10th straight month, as it tries to diversify away from the US dollar. The PBOC reserves rose by 930,000 troy oz. in August with total reserves at 2,165 tons officially (True estimates may be closer to 5,029 tonnes). This is the longest buying spree by the PBOC since Sept. 2019 and before that the last wave of inflows was in late 2016.

🔹 Around the world, institutions added 55 tonnes of the yellow metal to their reserves last month. The National Bank of Poland 🇵🇱 in July, purchased 22 tonnes, taking the institution’s total reserves to 299 tonnes. The Central Bank of Türkiye 🇹🇷 also added an extra 17 tonnes of gold to its reserves.

🔹Egypt 🇪🇬 ranked fifth in the Arab world after its gold reserves rose by 24% to reach 125.8 tons in first half of 2023. Belarus, under Western sanctions had its gold and foreign currency reserves went up by $17.7 million (or 0.2%) in August.

🔹Both the Iranian 🇮🇷 state and private citizens appear to have been turning to gold recently, after May's demand for gold coins and bars by Iranians had jumped dramatically, with investment soaring to 13 tons over the first months of 2023 – 26 percent more than the 10 ton five-year quarterly average.

🔹 An increasing number of countries are repatriating gold reserves as protection against the sort of sanctions imposed by the West on Russia 🇷🇺. These developments have spooked the West. The IMF recently demanded that the gov't of Ghana 🇬🇭 make full disclosure of it's ongoing gold for oil trade deals if it wants the IMF to fulfil a $3 billion Extended Credit Facility programme.

Video source - GoldSilver

Highlights from the 8th Eastern Economic Forum (EEF), held on 10–13 Sept. 2023 in Vladivostok, Russia 🇷🇺. Delegations from 53 countries along with 300 companies from China attended to strengthen ties and investment opportunities, with a main focus on Russia's Far East.

🔹Foreign Affairs:

Russia pushes for Mongolia 🇲🇳 to become a full-fledged member of the SCO. Laos 🇱🇦 Vice President Pany Yathotou expresses gratitude to Russia for its assistance since 2018 in locating and eliminating unexploded mines left over from the Vietnam War. Russia is working towards abolishing visa requirements for a number of Asian countries. Russia issued more than 600,000 entry visas in the first eight months of 2023, which is twice as many as in the same period of 2022.

🔹Finance/ Economy:

Russia is working on launching MIR payment cards in Thailand 🇹🇭. Projects with investments of more than $2.07 billion USD are planned on Russky Island in Russia’s Primorsky Territory. Payments by small and mid-sized businesses in yuan soared six-fold in the first 7 months of 2023.

🔹Infrastructure/Development:

Russian nuclear Rosatom and China's 🇨🇳 LS Group, will cooperate on a hydrogen plant project in Sakhalin. High-speed motorways will be built via Siberia and the Far East to the Pacific in an integrated 'Russia' transport corridor. Copper concentrate production started at Udokan, Russia's largest undeveloped copper deposit as an EEF milestone.

🔹Trade:

X5 Group to launch a multi-temperature wholesale and distribution logistics hub in Khabarovsk, 30 km from the China–Russia border. Russia Post plans to open a logistics co. in the UAE 🇦🇪. Trade turnover between Russia and the Asia-Pacific region surged 13.7% in 2022 and has jumped another 18.3% to date in 2023.

🔹Lithuania 🇱🇹 will confiscate Russian cars upon entry of it's borders except those using the Kaliningrad transit. Estonia 🇪🇪 is considering a proposal to re-register or confiscate cars with Russian license plates already within its borders. Latvia 🇱🇻 declares it can exercise confiscation of vehicles at the border in some cases.

🔹The European Commission 🇪🇺 issued guidelines to ban (with cases including confiscation) vehicles 🚗 🚛 (both private & commercial) with Russian license plates entering EU member states. The guidelines also include a ban on items such as razor blades, deodorants, soap, clothing etc. , but also items that could have a military application, like pneumatic tires, radio systems and electric generators.

🔹Estonia intends to be the first in the EU 🇪🇺 to 'legalise' the confiscation of sanctioned Russian assets. Despite the EU's ban, Russia will not introduce retaliatory restrictions for EU citizens. The EU is reportedly planning to siphon off profits accrued by more than €200 billion of frozen Russian Central Bank assets.

🔹EU states are considering Italy's anti-mafia type laws as a concept to confiscate sanctioned Russian assets. EU officials are fixed on legalizing illegality by confiscating private property outside the framework of a criminal trial. The EU has been looking into the 'legal' options (non-existent) to confiscate Russia’s 🇷🇺 assets frozen under sanctions.

🔹The EU's action undermines ‘Lex Mercatoria’ (Latin – ‘Merchant Law’). The autonomous legal order ⚖️ of international economic relations for trade & rules for settling disputes. The West has now destroyed, how money & currencies function in relationship to trade & private property rights.

Video- Daniel Ferrie - European Commission spokesperson.

🔹 Japan 🇯🇵 - The yen's significant devaluation against the US dollar 💵 is eroding the purchasing power of Japanese residents, pushing them to invest in gold. Buying of yen-denominated gold at the nation’s largest dealer has driven the price of the yellow metal above the ¥10,000 per gram level. Gold prices have shot up 📈 about 70% over the past three and a half years from under ¥5,900 yen in January 2020.

🔹 This reflects the dramatic collapse in the value of the yen 💴, which recently passed ¥147 against the US dollar. The BoJ bought a record 135 trillion yen ($1 trillion) in gov't bonds in fiscal 2022 as it tried to keep interest rates low. Still, interest rates continued to rise, forcing the BOJ to raise the target ceiling for the yield on 10-year gov't bonds. Investors sold government bonds, leading to a spike in interest rates.

🔹 The BOJ owned more than 50% of outstanding Japanese gov't bonds as of the end of 2022. In a strange twist, Japanese investors bought the most overseas bonds since March 2020, in early September 2023. Maybe Japanese banks bought U.S. 🇺🇸 long-term treasuries amid the idea that rate rises are close to over?

🔹 The BoJ's ultra-low interest rate policy has failed to boost the world’s third-largest economy in a sustainable way, sending inflation toward a 40-year high. Japanese investors sold a record amount of overseas debt last year as local yields rose on speculation that the BOJ would normalize policy.

🔹The IMF proposed to the BoJ to allow for more flexibility in long-term Japanese gov't bond yields that have been kept at depressed levels amid the "costly" side-effects of prolonged monetary easing. In Jan. 2023, the 🇯🇵 BOJ made massive unscheduled bond purchases after it announced a widening of the range in which the 10-year yield can trade to about 0.5% from 0.25%.

Video source - Sean Foo

🔹Director of the Office of China's 🇨🇳 Foreign Affairs Commission and Foreign Minister (FM) Wang Yi visited Russia during Sept. 18-21 on invitation from the Russian Security Council Secretary N. Patrushev. He is taking part in the 18th round of Russian-Chinese strategic security consultations. Secretary of the Mongolian 🇲🇳 National Security Council J. Enkhbayar was also present at one of the consultations.

🔹Russian 🇷🇺 FM S. Lavrov informed his visiting Chinese counterpart, about the results of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s visit to Russia. Minister Yi informed his Russian counterpart, about topics talked with US 🇺🇸National Security Adviser J. Sullivan. Russia's Security Council and FM Yi exchanged views about Washington's creation of new blocs and dividing lines in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as the strengthening of NATO's presence in Asia and the Pacific, which is aimed at undermining the established security system in the region.

🔹Russian President V. Putin will visit China in October for the Belt and Road Forum. China and Russia will strengthen security cooperation in response to the current challenges. Russia hopes for coordinated efforts by both countries at the upcoming Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Both countries have already achieved positive results from successfully coordinating policies with the states of the Global South.

🔹Beijing and Moscow are pursuing an independent foreign policy and their cooperation is not aimed against other countries. According to Prof. Guo Xinning, China 🇨🇳and Russia 🇷🇺may promote closer cooperation between the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

🔹Ukraine 🇺🇦 filed a complaint at the World Trade Organization against Hungary 🇭🇺, Poland 🇵🇱and Slovakia 🇸🇰 who is keeping their borders closed to importing Ukrainian grain after an EU 🇪🇺 restriction expired on Sept. 15 which previously allowed these countries to ban domestic sales of Ukrainian wheat, maize, rapeseed and sunflower seeds. They however are allowing transit of Ukrainian grain.

🔹Previously, Poland, Bulgaria 🇧🇬, Hungary, Romania 🇷🇴 and Slovakia had signed off on a joint declaration regarding the ban’s extension until at least the end of 2023. Post Sept. 15th, Bulgaria and Romania is allowing Ukrainian grain imports again due to Kiev's plan to start “legal measures” such as a 30-day licensing system, to avoid new surges in grain exports.

🔹Now, Croatia 🇭🇷 has joined Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, with PM Andrej Plenkovic referring to importing Ukrainian grain: "is cheaper than ours, which would mean our farmers are in trouble”. Slovakia's agriculture minister, Jozef Bires, said Ukraine had “no legal basis” for the WTO complaint. Poland’s minister for European Union affairs, Szymon Szynkowski vel Sek, said Ukraine was hurting itself with the WTO move. Ukraine threatens to consider retaliatory trade restrictions.

🔹Logistical bottlenecks mean large quantities of Ukrainian grains 🌾, have ended up in central European states, hitting prices and sales of local farmers 🚜. The termination of the Black Sea grain deal increases the pressure on the land transport of agricultural products in Europe and can aggravate tension between Ukraine and its neighbours.

Video Source - TVS News Poland

🔹Russia 🇷🇺 (the world’s single biggest seaborne exporter of diesel-type fuel for 2023) temporarily banned exports of diesel in a bid to stabilize domestic supplies, driving European prices higher in already tight global fuel markets. The country shipped more than 1 million barrels a day during January to mid-September, with Türkiye 🇹🇷, Brazil 🇧🇷 and Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 being among the main destinations.

🔹Diesel ⛽️prices in Europe jumped on concern the measure will aggravate global shortages. The global refining system will struggle to replace those lost Russian volumes at a time when global diesel inventories are already at low levels. Despite the US & EU ban on importing Russian diesel directly, any shrinking in global oil supply, absent demand shrinking too, will drive energy prices up.

🔹Rising diesel prices coinciding with a rally in oil prices, is fanning fears that inflation could surge again in Europe, US and UK. In northwest Europe, the premium of benchmark diesel futures to crude oil, (ICE Gasoil crack) climbed 4.51% higher on the day of the announcement.

🔹Kremlin spokesperson D. Peskov said, "It was necessary to regulate this market against the background of harvesting work 🚜, agricultural processes... the ordinary consumer, not only the wholesale, but also the retail market". As for gasoline, exchange prices for Ai-92 grade in the European part of Russia have fallen by more than🔻20% since Sept. 18 and prices for AI-95 by 🔻22%.

🔹There are a number of factors behind this diesel market supply tightness, including OPEC+ 🛢supply cuts, recovering air travel, limited refining 🏭 capacity growth, and in Europe, the struggle of being able to fully replace Russian middle distillates after the EU ban came into effect in February.

Photo sources: Commodity Insights Oil & Bloomberg

Copper Update: (N.B. Correlation sign between copper price fall and weakening economic activity world-wide).

🔹Declining prices in the spot market for copper have pushed the spread between the spot price and the price of futures traded on the London Metals Exchange (LME) 🇬🇧 for delivery three months out to its widest level since 1994 (photo). Inventories have piled up at LME warehouses around the world due to falling demand in the Chinese 🇨🇳 economy and a rising USD 💵 index (since July). Prices are around $8,102 a metric ton, the lowest since May.

(Reference note: In June 2023, copper available to the market in LME approved warehouses fell to the lowest 📉 level since October 2021.)

🔹Commodity trader Glencore bought at least 5,000 metric tons of Russian copper routed through Türkiye to Italy 🇮🇹 in July without breaching sanctions. UK and EU 🇪🇺 sanctions were placed on executives of the Russian 🇷🇺 copper co. UMMC but not the company itself. After Glencore's trade in July, the US 🇺🇸 has now sanctioned UMMC. Imports of Russian copper by Türkiye 🇹🇷has nearly tripled in the first 7 months of 2023.

🔹Output from the world’s biggest copper supplier 🇵🇪 after Chile this year jumped 20% through July from the same period in 2022 as mines recovered from blockades. Peru’s recovery from protests triggered by last year’s ouster of former President Pedro Castillo is helping replenish global stockpiles of the metal.

🔹Fraudsters have robbed Europe’s largest copper producer of €185 million worth of the metal. Germany’s 🇩🇪Aurubis found that it had paid inflated invoices for shipments of scrap metal and other inputs, based on samples that had been manipulated to show a much higher copper content than turned out to be the case.

🔹Panama’s 🇵🇦 construction workers’ union blocked highways yesterday to demand that lawmakers reject a copper mining contract with a Canadian 🇨🇦 miner. Workers claim the contract grants the co. control of land, air and maritime space.

🔹Indonesia 🇮🇩 has launched a National Task Force to promote local-currency transactions (LCT). "Bank Indonesia is confident that the National LCT Task Force will be an effective coordination forum to strengthen policy synergy between government ministries and agencies in an effort to increase the use of local currencies in bilateral transactions between Indonesia and major trading partners," ——Governor of Bank Indonesia, Perry Warjiyo.

🔹Indonesia's confidence in the National LCT Task Force isn’t just about currency; it’s about forging stronger, more independent bilateral ties with global trading partners. The gov't and Bank Negara Malaysia 🇲🇾 will continue to expand the Local Currency Settlement Framework (LCSF) cooperation with Indonesia.

🔹Meanwhile, new revelations reveal that the US's 🇺🇸 National Endowment for Democracy (NED), a notorious CIA front, is laying the foundations for a color revolution in Indonesia 🇮🇩under the aegis of “democracy promotion.” The NED is covertly encouraging and bankrolling the activism of opposition parties and trade unions while cementing its graduates of NED training programs ahead of the Feb. 2024 presidential elections. Some of the same tactics the NED employed in Ukraine's 🇺🇦 Maidan 2014 coup.

🔹Last month, Vietnam 🇻🇳 joined ASEAN members Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand 🇹🇭, the Philippines 🇵🇭 and Singapore 🇸🇬 to establish cross-border payments mechanisms through the Regional Payment Connectivity initiative.

🔹Indonesia plans to use local currencies in bilateral trade with India 🇮🇳. In May, South Korea 🇰🇷 and Indonesia signed a MoU to cooperate on promoting the use of their currencies for bilateral transactions. The Bank of Indonesia is working on its own domestic card payment system as part of a strategy to reduce dependency on foreign systems and protect transactions from geopolitical fallout.

Video source - SEA Today News

🔹State-run China 🇨🇳 National Petroleum Corp., is negotiating with Russia 🇷🇺 to finalise the price of gas supply under the proposed Power of Siberia-2 pipeline amid expectations that a deal could emerge as early as this year if the parties agree. This year, Russia expects to sell gas to China at an average of $297.3 per 1,000 cubic meters, while the remaining clients in Europe 🇪🇺 and Türkiye 🇹🇷 will pay an average of $500.6.

🔹The heads of Russian energy giants Gazprom and Rosneft, Alexei Miller and Igor Sechin, will accompany President Vladimir Putin to China next month. The Power of Siberia-2 pipeline, would traverse Mongolia 🇲🇳 and have an annual capacity of 50 bcm.

🔹The delivered cost of Power of Siberia 2 is expected to be cheaper than most new LNG imports in the northern and central coastal demand centers in China. From Russia's side, Western Siberia gas is already developed with low breakeven cost to Gazprom and a shorter route via Mongolia that lower the project cost.

🔹Russian companies supplied 3.27 billion cubic meters of gas to China via pipelines and in LNG 🚢 form in July 2023, setting an all-time record for trade between the two countries. Gazprom supplied nearly 2 bcm of gas to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline, and LNG exports added another 1.3 bcm via around 15 consignments.

🔹China's natural gas demand this year is expected to grow by 8% from 2022. Imports of Russian piped gas had jumped 54% over the course of 2022, as Russia continues to make deliveries through the Power of Siberia which is expected to reach full capacity of 38 bcm annually by 2027.

🔹The billionaire chair and founder of China’s 🇨🇳 Evergrande Group is being investigated and under police surveillance over suspected “illegal crimes,”. Trading of Evergrande shares were halted on the Hong Kong 🇭🇰 Stock Exchange today, 26th Sept., amid mounting concern over the company's plan to restructure and fend off the looming specter of liquidation. Last week, police detained staff of Evergrande’s wealth management unit after the co. failed to repay investors.

🔹It marks another low for the firm which was declared to be in default in 2021 after missing a crucial repayment deadline, triggering China's current real estate 🏢 market crisis. With more than $300 billion in liabilities - roughly the size of Finland's GDP- Evergrande is the face of a debt crisis in China's property sector.

🔹In 2020, Beijing 🇨🇳 brought in new rules to control the amount owed by big real estate developers. The new measures led Evergrande to offer its properties at major discounts to ensure money was coming in to keep the business afloat. Now it is struggling to meet the interest payments on its debts. This uncertainty has seen Evergrande's shares lose more than 🔻99% of their value in the past three years.

There are several reasons why Evergrande's problems are serious.

🔸Many people bought property from Evergrande even before building work began. They have paid deposits and could potentially lose that money if it goes bust.

🔸Firms doing business with Evergrande, including construction and design firms and materials suppliers are at risk of incurring major losses, which could force them into bankruptcy.

🔸If Evergrande defaults, banks and other lenders may be forced to lend less, which can lead to a credit crunch.

Video source - Reuters