US inflation rises to new 40-year high of 7.9% over the last year. The food-at-home index is up 8.6% from Feb '21. Gasoline prices rose 6.6% last month. Feb was the 21st straight month of MoM increases in consumer prices, with Energy (and Services) at the top. March shelter inflation up @ 4.74% the highest since May 1991. March rent inflation up @ 4.17% the highest since July 2007. Real wages (average hourly earnings) dropped on a YoY basis for the 11th straight month @-2.6%.

European ammonia (NH3) fertilizer companies reducing output due to high natural gas (CH4) prices (CH4 is feedstock for NH3 production). EU NH3 prices are unstoppable in the upwards trend. Norway’s Yara cuts production in Italy & France. Hungarian Nitrogenmuvek halts output, Borealis considering it. Russia and Belarus are top major exporters of potash fertilizers. Russia is a major exporter of NH3 fertilizers (eg. urea) and announce that they are ensuring all domestic fertilizer demands are fulfilled and suspending exports except to 'friendly' nations. Considerations being made as to what Russian commodities (wheat and sugar) will be exported to countries within the EEU (Eurasian Economic Union).

Ukraine's Internet Service Provider Triolan has a 12 hour outage due to a DDOS cyberattack. Same was experienced on Feb 24. Major routers have been disabled and cannot remotely reset so it has to be done physically. Ukraine's monopoly 'Ukrtelecom' telephone company and ISP reported outages earlier today and is now restored.

Russia/Ukraine Intelligence Analysis Day 14.

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The WHO advised The Ukraine to destroy high-threat pathogens housed in the country's public health laboratories to prevent "any potential spills" that would spread disease among the population. The UN Security Council will convene today at Russia's request, to discuss Moscow's evidence of alleged of U.S. "biological activities" in Ukraine. The WHO has warned in a press conference that the war is increasing the causes for infectious diseases being spread across The Ukraine. US Senator Rubio has warned that any future biological/chemical attack in The Ukraine will be done by Russia as a false-flag attack. The US DoD reports that these labs were there since 2005 to destroy Soviet bio-weapons.

Concerns arise that Russia's fertilizer export restrictions will send fertilizer prices "orbitally higher". Western Europe Ammonia price is now at an all-time high of $1300/ ton. US urea traded as high as US$795/ton up 22% from earlier in the month. Russia's reduced exports of nitrogen and potash based fertilizers will greatly affect farmers ability to grow food around the world. Farmers are worried of fertilizer availability in US states such as California being a 100% fertilizer-deficit state. UN FAO warns that this is increasing risks to world-wide food security.

Uranium prices rose 11% Friday, to their highest level since Japan's Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011 following reports that Joe Biden is weighing sanctions against Russia's nuclear power supplier. Rosatom is the world’s biggest supplier of enriched uranium. Russia accounted for 23% of the enriched uranium needed to power the fleet of U.S. commercial nuclear reactors in 2020. Spot uranium prices rose to $60.40 /lb. Rosatom is a delicate target because the company and its subsidiaries account for more than 35% of global uranium enrichment.

UN FAO - “Sudden and steep reduction” in Black Sea grain and sunflower exports in the coming 2022-23 season. Estimated 25-million-ton drop in Ukraine and Russia’s combined wheat and corn exports, and a 3-million-ton drop in oilseeds to the rest of the world. Little effect on Russian grain production, but effects on farm income due to international sanctions unknown. UK National Farmers’ Union has warned of a 50% drop in UK-grown crops in glasshouses, including peppers, cucumbers and aubergines, as it becomes too expensive because of the crippling increase in the cost of the gas they use for heating. World leaders are already blaming Russia for everything from record-high food costs to soaring gas prices.

Global stocks of diesel and other middle distillates have fallen to the lowest seasonal level since 2008. Distillate fuel oil inventories in the United States are 30 million barrels (21%) below the pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average and at the lowest level since 2005. Stocks in Europe are 35 million barrels (8%) below the pre-pandemic five-year average at the lowest level since 2008. There is some scope for refiners to boost distillate output by increasing crude processing back to pre-pandemic rates but that will transform a shortage of distillate into a shortage of crude oil. US average daily input to distillation fell this week by 126,000 barrels from last week to a daily average of 15.7 million barrels.

Reduced exports of sunflowers and its derivatives from Ukraine and Russia, the world's top producers are creating edible oil market panic. They are the source of 90% of India’s sunflower oil imports. India is looking for other sources to import any edible oil. Argentina, the world's 5th biggest sunflower oil exporter could fall below expectations due to lower yields and excess rainfall. Large supermarket chains in Spain have begun to ration sunflower oil. Reports surface of Sunflower oil panic buying in Turkey and rapid price increases. North Macedonia and Serbia have banned exports of cooking oils to preserve domestic supply and rein in price hikes.

US President Biden called for an urgent, government-wide focus on R&D into US CBDC. Nine Republican senators have backed legislation aimed at directing US agencies around concerns that China’s CBDC may be used to circumvent sanctions. India plans to launch CBDC-digital rupee by year end. In Jamaica, the first 100,000 citizens to use their new CBDC Jam-Dex, will be given 2500 Jamaican dollars ($16). The Philippine Central Bank intends on rolling out the ‘CBDCPh’ soon and plans on enabling cross-border CBDC interoperability.

Argentina temporarily suspends exports of soybean meal and soybean oil and will raise export taxes from 31% to 33% (the same as soybeans) on soybean crushers. Argentina is the world's largest soybean meal exporter. Last year Argentine exporters and traders saw a 300% increase y-o-y due to low water levels in the Parana River which is used for soybean ship transportation. China, the world's top importer of soybeans, brought in 13.94 million tonnes of the oilseed in the Jan-Feb period, up 4.1% from 2021.

US- The highly infectious strain of avian flu (bird flu) has now been discovered in commercial poultry flocks in 12 states. The USDA stated that state officials had quarantined the affected premises, and birds from the properties will be depopulated. Almost 1 million laying hens killed in Iowa to prevent spread. The chances of humans getting sick from avian flu are low. Reports arise about bird flu cases in Canada too.

Russia now considering a ban on wheat, rye, barley and corn exports from March 15 to June 30. Russia is the world's #1 wheat (20% of global), #6 rye, #9 barley, #11 corn exporter. Nitrogen and potash based fertilizer exports from Russia and Belarus are restricted due to sanctions and farmers around the world and unable to plant acreages as previous years. UK ammonium nitrate is up to £1,000 per tonne compared to £650 a week ago.

Breaking - Reports of cyberattack against government websites in Israel, including the Ministries of Finance & Transportation and the national cyber system. Alleged Iranian-affiliated hacker group Black Shadow claimed responsibility for the attack. According to data from the Internet Association, there is an unusual increase in traffic into http://gov.il through Cellcom (Netvision). This probably indicates a denial of service (DDOS) attack. The bandwidth of the attack is about 15-20 GB. The attack began at 6:15 p.m., and ended at about 7:30 p.m.

Concerns grow over global food security. Europe has seen major increases in natural gas prices, used in nitrogen fertilizer production, resulting in shutdown of fertilizer facilities. Fuel price increases creating budget constraints for farmers to heat barns and run agricultural machinery. Hungary, Indonesia and Argentina have imposed trade barriers on agricultural exports ranging from wheat to cooking oil. Russia and China has placed bans/restrictions on exports of nitrogen fertilizers. President Putin warns that global food security can be negatively affected and result in inflationary pressure increases due to sanctioning Russia.

A new multi-polar world order is in progress. India considering buying Russian crude and commodities at big discounts conducting trade in rubles and rupees as Indian exporters are awaiting payments of about $500 million that have been stuck after the sanctions. Under the proposed mechanism, ruble could be deposited into an Indian bank after converting it into rupee and vice versa. Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in yuan. Russia is working on implementing already developed SWIFT bypasses. The official website of the Eurasian Economic Commission announced that the EAEU and China will develop a draft of an independent international monetary system. This was immediately scrubbed off the website. Kazakhstan's Deputy Prime Minister, Bakhyt Sultanov later denied the announcement.

US Producer Prices Index at double-digits for first time and Feb is the 21st straight month of MoM rising producer prices. Nearly 40 percent of the Feb increase in prices for final demand goods can be attributed to the index for gasoline, which rose 14.8%. Wholesale energy prices were up 33.8% over the past year and food prices 13.7%. Biden’s JCPOA negotiations with Iran to restore Iranian frozen funds, in exchange to drop sanctions on Iran to increase world's oil volumes market availability is being mediated by Russia the JCPOA key broker.

A worsening drought in the southern U.S. Plains is threatening the region's winter wheat crop. U.S. hard red winter wheat represents nearly half of the country's overall wheat production and is milled mainly for bread flour. Russia on Monday temporarily banned grain exports to ex-Soviet countries and most sugar exports. US farmers are looking at over a 300% increase on fertilizer alone this year. Black Sea supply squeeze continues. China’s winter wheat crop could be the worst in history after heavy rainfall delayed planting last fall.

Government's centralised more economic control under the guise of 'sanctions'. The UK's Economic Crime (Transparency and Enforcement) Bill in final stages of approval sets precedents to potentially in the future undermine UK private property rights. European banks will now intensively scrutinize all transactions Russia and Belarusian clients which is based on an ethnicity and nationality. Some ECB supervisory teams, which include staff from the central bank and national authorities, have told banks to tighten control of EU residents too if they come from Russia or Belarus.