Black Sea research firm SovEcon expects Ukraine's 2022 corn harvest to plunge 35% to 27.7 million tons this year based on if farmers start planting on time in April. Ukraine and Russia accounts for more than a quarter of global wheat trade & about a fifth of global corn trade. Ukraine has enforced protectionist measures of banning wheat and other commodities exports. In South Korea, Asia's 4th largest economy, import prices of corn surged 40% y-o-y to $335 last month, which was up 63% from the same month in 2020. EU -In order to prevent animal feed shortages, the European Commission agreed to allow a temporary lifting of corn import restrictions for EU member states in order to allow imports from Latin America which was restricted due to pesticide residues.

Swedish farmers may be forced to reduce their harvests by as much as half due to a shortage of manure and fertilizers. Russia supplies Sweden with up to 20% of its manure and also supplies of phosphorus and potassium fertilizers. Swedish farmers are seeing massive increases in fertilizer costs from other sources. Swedish government announces €1.32 billion subsidy package to help Swedes cope with soaring fuel/energy prices. Last month Swedish farmers got a one billion-kronor ($106 million) government compensation package for a surge in costs for electricity, fuel and fertilizers. Next door, the Finnish government is about to enact a $331 million subsidy to farmers facing an "acute liquidity crisis" caused by high inflation and rising energy prices.

CBDC news this week- The Bank of Canada will work closely with MIT Media Lab’s Digital Currency Initiative team to explore distributed ledger technology and how it would impact the potential design of a CBDC. India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), has dismissed all speculations that the government plans to issue a cryptocurrency that would be regulated by RBI, instead looking to CBDC as a digital equivalent to the rupee. Ghana’s central bank is deploying hardware wallets (smartcard, key fob, wrist watch/band) for its CBDC. This is how a cashless society—easily monitored, controlled, manipulated, weaponized and locked down—plays right into the hands of the government (and its corporate partners).

Brazil is one of the most foreign fertilizer reliant countries in the world that imports more than 85% of its total fertilizer demand. Russia, Canada & Belarus are Brazil’s top suppliers and sanctions on Russia are creating fertilizer supply chain issues. This has led urea fertilizer importers to push the Brazilian gov’t to negotiate a bartering deal (food for fertilizer) with Iran who is also under US sanctions. Brazil is a leading exporter of coffee, sugar, soybeans, manioc, rice, maize, cotton, edible beans, and wheat. Brazil announces a National Fertilizer Plan with goals for 2030 and 2050 to modernize, reactivate and expand existing fertilizer plants; improve the business environment to attract investments in the fertilizer production chain and promote competitive advantages in the national fertilizer production chain, to name a few.

Nickel markets correcting - The London Metal Exchange’s embarrassing weeklong suspension of nickel trading is an example of the volatility particularly difficult to navigate because some moves appear to defy fundamentals, with hedge funds exiting long-term bullish bets just as supply looks the tightest in years. The LME suspended trading as prices surged 250% to a record, canceling almost $4 billion of transactions. The illiquidity is a worry for consumers who use nickel in stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries.

Cyberattack - Credit score reporting company TransUnion South Africa is hacked by a group of hackers demanding a ransom of $ 15 million (R225 million) for over 4 TB of personal data on 54 million South Africans. Data includes credit rating scores, financial institution facts, and ID quantities. South African Banking Risk Information Centre (SABRIC), said it has engaged with TransUnion “with the aim to coordinate the banking industry’s efforts to secure bank customers’ profiles against abuse”.

Hundreds of Greek farmers, some on tractors, protested in Athens, demanding more tax cuts and subsidies to combat high fuel and fertilizer prices. The farmers say their costs are so high they will be forced to produce less and also raise prices for consumers. Greek farmers are impacted by the low availability of nitrogen and potash based fertilizers imported from Russia. Farming associations say they were largely left out of a $1.21 billion financial support package announced earlier this week to help consumers and business to cope with surging energy costs. Benchmark wholesale European gas prices surged by more than 300% last year, pushing up the cost of electricity in Greece.

Spain's farmers are considering giving animal herds less feed and may eventually be forced to slaughter some of the animals to keep farms going due to imported grains supply shortages. Spain has the largest livestock herd in the EU with about 58.8 million head covering pigs, cows, sheep and goats. Feed stocks have become depleted in Spain, a major customer of corn from Ukraine. This week, Spanish truck drivers protested high fuel prices. Today, thousands of demonstrators hit the streets across Spain to protest the soaring cost of food, light and fuel.

The pace of petrodollar developments is reminiscent of late 2017 USD attacks pointed to in this YouTube video.
This week -Saudi Arabia is in talks with China to sell oil for CNY. China is maybe preparing for possible US sanctions. China and Saudi Arabia have been talking about yuan-based oil contracts for six years. China ranks as the biggest foreign holder of US debt. The main hurdle is the yuan’s limited convertibility and that it is still tightly managed by China. The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is progressively interconnecting with the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative. Half of Russia’s gold and foreign reserves have been frozen by unilateral sanctions.

Canadian Pacific Railway (CPR) trains were halted this morning, stalling global shipments of key commodities like fertilizers, after an impasse in contract negotiations between the company and more than 3,000 conductors, engineers and yard workers. Businesses/politicians publicly urge the Canadian parliament to introduce back-to-work legislation that would force striking workers to return to their jobs. CPR is the sixth-largest freight railway in North America. Nutrien, the world’s largest potash & major nitrogen fertilizer producer sends most potash production from its Saskatchewan mines via CPR to ships for exporting. Manitoba farmers worry as they use CPR to transport grains & oilseeds. 75% of all fertilizer in Canada is moved by rail. Farmers concerned if fertilizers will arrive on time for fertilizing window in spring.

Breaking - Saudi Arabia alleges Iran-aligned Houthi group launched four attacks on the kingdom that targeted a water desalination plant in the city of Al-Shaqeeq, an Aramco facility in Jizan, a power station in the southern Dhahran al Janub city, and a gas facility in Khamis Mushait. Firefighters have the fire under control at the Aramco facility at the present time as shown in video with footage of the strike earlier in the day.

Oil prices rise this morning in Asia markets. Uncertainty after attack on Saudi Arabia Aramco facility and sanctions on Russia has pushed oil futures market bidding higher. OPEC+, showed some producers are still falling short of their agreed supply quotas.
Japan urges the United Arab Emirates to pump more oil to calm markets. Oil futures remain in backwardation, a bullish pattern marked by near-term prices commanding a premium to those further out.

Saudi Arabia has announced that they bear “no responsibility” for any shortages in the global supply of oil in the wake of attacks on Aramco facilities yesterday by Yemeni forces. Oil prices continue to climb. Saudi Arabia’s illegitimate sea and air blockade around Yemen has pushed millions to the brink of famine in the Yemen. Gulf Arab oil producers have so far resisted pressure from the Biden administration to pump more crude to help bring down oil prices abiding by limits in oil production volume increases.

Avian influenza (bird flu) is spreading in US and UK, forcing farmers to cull flocks. Residents of Palmyra, Wisconsin USA are concerned about nearly 3 million culled chickens from farms to be buried in their area. Farmers in Iowa, USA forced to cull 5.3 million chickens. USDA confirms culling 12.6 million chickens and turkeys in the past 2 months. Shoppers in the UK can no longer buy free-range eggs since bird flu outbreaks places birds under lockdown and eggs are labelled as ‘barn eggs’. Germany warns egg supply crunch will appear by summer due to feed shortages. Egg shortages have begun to appear in Uganda, Africa with a 25% price increase within the last month. Malaysia experiences delay in the arrival of imported frozen chicken due to the shortage of supply in the exporting countries.

The labour dispute that shut down operations at Canadian Pacific Railway which started on Sunday is set to aggravate a shortage of commodities. The impact of the strike could be felt south of the border as CP’s rail network runs as far south as Kansas City in the US. United States imports 86% of its potash from Canada, much of it by rail. This is the latest blow to Canada’s battered supply chain, when in 2021 floods in British Columbia suspended access to Canada’s biggest port. Canada's commodity-heavy main stock index climbed to a record high yesterday. Canadian crude exports by rail topped 131,000 barrels a day in December 2021. "So from coal to potash to fertilizer, animal feed, you name it, everything's going to take a hit now."

UPDATE- Canadian Pacific has agreed with the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) — Train and Engine Negotiating Committee — to enter into a binding arbitration. Workers will return to work this afternoon as negotiations continue. This type of arbitration is a means of resolving the worker dispute outside of a courtroom in which the decision is binding upon both CP and the workers. Except under very limited circumstances, decisions made in binding arbitration by the arbitrator - including awards of damages - must be honored and cannot be appealed to a court of law.

US lawmakers filed legislation to ban Russian uranium imports, calling the dependence on foreign uranium “simply unacceptable.” Uranium energy companies stock price climbs. Russia enriches more uranium for use in nuclear plants than any other country in the world. U.S. plants typically refuel every 1-2 years with 2-3 years stockpile, so no short-term fuel shortage for existing plants. converting mined heavy metal into a fuel can only be processed at specialized facilities with Russia controlling 35% of world market. Burdening energy prices in the UK has prompted UK's PM to announce a return to nuclear energy. US activists protest after a conservation nonprofit Grand Canyon Trust report shows, that White Mesa Mill the last functioning uranium mill in the U.S., stores over 700 million pounds of radioactive waste.

World-wide wheat price increase effects setting in. Egypt, the world’s biggest wheat importer, with Russia and Ukraine accounting for 80% of their wheat imports in 2021, has implemented price controls on unsubsidised bread. Lebanon, suffering an economic crisis over the past 2 years, now has supermarkets hoarding flour to sell at higher prices with bread up 70% in the past month. US wheat farmers concerned about how higher fertilizer cost will affect acreage yields. Agreement being pursued to enable stakeholders in the wheat chain to conclude binding contracts with Slovenian farmers so that Slovenian wheat stays in Slovenia when harvested. Pasta across supermarket chains in UK up 56%-67% in 6 months. Italy experiences pasta shortages and bread prices almost double in 4 months. Pasta prices surged 24% y-o-y in Denmark. In Kyrgyzstan, flour mills and government signed a cooperation agreement for the flour mills to get tax benefits, in exchange to provide the local market preferably with flour.

Cyberattack - Nestlé, the world’s largest food group by market cap, has denied recent claims by Anonymous that they had successfully stole over 10 GB of data including passwords and emails in a campaign to stop Nestle operating in Russia. Anonymous said only a sample of what is stolen has been released online. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy singled out Nestle in a speech to protesters on Saturday in the Swiss capital of Bern. Nestle today suspends sales of KitKat and Nesquik Brands in Russia.

Australia's top alumina refineries choked off flows of alumina to Russia's United Co. Rusal International PJSC, the world's second-largest aluminum company by production output. Australia accounts for 20% of Russia's alumina supply, also called aluminum oxide, which is derived from bauxite ore and sent to refiners and turned into alumina. Bulk carriers then ship the alumina to smelters in Russia, where it's then transformed into aluminum. Germany-based TRIMET became the latest smelter to cut aluminium output in Europe because of higher energy prices. Aluminum Corp of China Ltd, says its net income surged 564.6% in 2021. The US has agreed to lift tariffs on British aluminum.

Fertilizer shortages resulting from sanctions on Russia are now affecting coffee farmers. In Nicaragua, coffee farmers are slashing fertilizer purchases just to make ends meet. In Guatemala, growers are diluting nutrients to stretch scarce supplies. In Costa Rica, producers are betting that their soil holds enough lingering nutrients to carry them through the next planting season. Unaffordable fertilizer and delayed rain affecting coffee farmers in Kenya. Last week, the Green Markets North America Fertilizer Price Index jumped almost 10% to an all-time high. Photo- Coffee futures price-Potash fertilizer producers - Urea (nitrogen based) fertilizer price.