The U.S. exported the most oil and petroleum products in its history last week as countries across the world work to replace Russian supplies. The US recently began to release 1 million barrels of oil per day from the US Strategic Reserves to help reduce high fuel prices. "The U.S. is acting as the barrel of last resort to a global energy market hungry for oil." JPM's commodity strategist -"A full and immediate Russian oil embargo is likely to hurt European consumers more than Russian producers in the near term. More importantly, a full, immediate ban would likely drive Brent crude oil prices to $185/bbl."

After last month's fire at Walmart's distribution center & Taiwan's retail logistics center, this week more problems arise for the food supply system. The headquarters of Azure Standard, (Dafur, Oregon, USA) the nation’s premier independent distributor of organic and healthy food, was destroyed by fire overnight. The cause of the fire is unknown. Azure CEO Steltzer said the loss of the facility and impact on the company-wide operations is being assessed and expected to be limited. This comes less than a week after Taylor Farms salad package plant (Salinas, California) processing facility was burnt down last Thursday. Photo - Headlines of fires that destroyed food distribution and logistics centers across the US in the past 3 months.

Israel's central bank added yuan to its reserve holdings for the first time ever. Previously, the bank only held US dollars, euros, and the British pound. Israel's central bank will add Chinese yuan while slashing its dollar and euro holdings in a move to diversify its reserve allocations and lengthen its investment horizon. The dollar's share of the total global currency reserves has fallen to its lowest point in over two decades.

Farmers in China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Vietnam — the largest rice-producing countries could experience reduced output due to soaring fertilizer prices. The International Rice Research Institute warns that harvests could plunge as much as 10% in the next season, equating to about 36 million tons of rice. Thailand accounts for about a quarter of the world’s global trade of rice. Thailand’s rice crop has been compromised, due to excessive rains, dampening harvests. This has caused market turbulence, food security concerns and leaving millions of Thai households facing economic difficulties.

Canada- Reports of Avian Flu. A Quebec duck-farming operation in the Eastern Townships says three of its facilities have been devastated by avian flu, forcing it to slaughter 150,000 birds and lay off nearly 300 employees. It will likely take six to 12 months and possibly several million dollars to fully restore the company's operations. US "experts" now warn of it spreading among wild birds. They want you to remove bird feeders and baths that encourage birds to congregate in your backyard because this allows the virus to spread. The risk of people catching the bird flu is low, with no cases reported in humans.

USA- California lawmakers takes first step toward lowering the standard for how much water people use in their homes - a move that won't be enforced on individual customers. The state requires water agencies to meet that standard across all of its customers. This could lead to higher rates even as consumption declines. Utah - due to drought Utah's Governor declared a new state of emergency, urging residences and business alike to conserve or reduce water use heading into the summer months.

Mexico - 53.3% of the nation’s territory is anywhere from moderate to exceptional drought, 7.2% more than on March 31. However, the worst affected states are in the north and northeast. Rainfall this year is significantly down.

Video - South America -Chile - Santiago's 7.1 million residents live under the constant threat of water rationing.

Wheat Futures contracts in Europe- Today, the forward harvest price of #wheat is €100/tonne above even the highest harvest prices achieved in the past. USA - With wheat prices already hitting a 14-year high this year, more Ohio farmers are now planning to plant more of the grain. Argentina- Dry weather and rising production costs could conspire to reduce wheat output by 25%, from 7.8 million tonnes in 2021-22 to 5.8 million in the coming year. Russia- will be able to increase wheat exports to friendly countries in the new July-June season due to high carry-over stocks in the south of the country and a record crop forecast. Russia yesterday donated nearly 20,000 tonnes of wheat to political ally Cuba, as a gift.

The Norwegian government is facing increasing calls to curb electricity exports to Europe as power prices jump at home. The uncertainty over coal and gas supplies from Russia has sent power prices soaring across Europe, which is making the cheap Norwegian hydro electricity even more attractive. Exports outside the Nordic market are up almost 50% from a year ago. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, reported its weakest quarter in two years. The $1.3 trillion fund posted a January-March loss of 653 billion Norwegian crowns ($74.2 billion). The increase in bankruptcy amounted to 8% compared with last year. In March, 294 companies went bankrupt.

Indonesia bans palm oil exports. The world's biggest palm oil producer, Indonesia, is the latest country to embrace protectionist measures to mitigate domestic food shortages. This is amidst a sunflower oil shortage from Russia/Ukraine. This caused a rush into soybean oil futures. U.S. soybean oil futures surged to all-time highs yesterday. The Black Sea region accounts for 76% of world sunflower oil exports. Argentina, have raised export taxes on edible oils.

A Carbon Credits & Virtue Signal Social Credit System is emerging in Europe.

- Netherlands Rabobank customers can see how much CO2 they emit based on their spending in the bank’s app. Climate expert is calling on the firm to better map the products that cause the most emissions.

- UK's BBC lauds implantable microchip wallet. "Chip implants contain the same kind of technology that people use on a daily basis,". (Video)

- EU Biometric digital wallet underway. A group led by a selection of EU member states is forming the EU Digital Identity Wallet Consortium to create multiple use cases.

- Bologna, Italy - A new app is released for rewarding some citizens for their behavior through a point system. “Smart Citizen Wallet” ensures citizens are rewarded for things such as recycling, using public transports, etc

- Sweden's government has submitted a bill with proposals for guidelines for a new and modern public reward system. The reward system must pay attention to and reward meritorious efforts.

Diesel shortages and price hikes affecting farmers around the world.
- UK Rural insurance broker warns farmers of increase risk of diesel theft. Situation worsened by gov't green policy that now restricts sale of rebated diesel, also known as red diesel.
- Pakistan braces for worst diesel shortage amid harvesting season.
- Nigerian farmers unable to fuel water pumps and generators for crop irrigation.
- South Punjab Districts of India, diesel shortage may hit mechanical wheat harvesting.
- Diesel prices double for Georgia, USA farmers.
- Diesel exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast rose to 1.3 million barrels per day, on track to reach the highest monthly level since January 2016.

India / Middle East - Food processing companies such as Mrs Bector's Food Specialities and CG Corp Global are getting ready to combat a possible shortage of wheat due to the combined effects of hoarding by farmers and traders, and restricted exports from Russia and Ukraine. “Our vendors are finding it difficult to source wheat and the situation is expected to worsen".
- U.S. planting remains behind schedule on account of wet weather.
- Pakistan faces wheat crisis due to most of the imports being sourced from the Black Sea region.
- Investment Funds and speculators pile in money on US COMEX net long wheat futures contracts. Fundamentals set for a wheat futures bull run and huge profits for investors as crisis worsens. Wheat futures presently trading @ $10.64 USD per bushel.

Update to last week's post on Union Pacific Railroad (UP) saying they’d be reducing 20% of rail space to 30 large-scale customers–including fertilizer shippers. US congressman Austin Scott, R-Ga. warns about lower production inside the US, resulting in less food exports. He called for Congress to have a hearing to question railroad companies over the supply chain issues.
UP is trying to deal with their bottlenecks and rail service delays across their network by scaling back what they will serve for some of their largest customers.” Some say says this is an example of monopoly power to cut existing contracts without regard and an example of the railroad doing “just whatever they want.” UP plans to hire more staff and add locomotives to network.

Update to recent fires at farms and food processing facilities.
- This morning in the UK. A large fire at a sausage factory is being tackled by 70 firefighters from across Essex and Hertfordshire. (Video)

- This comes after yesterdays fire of a chicken farm in Asten, Netherlands. Initial reports say 43,000 chickens died.

- Questions are being raised after last Thursday's plane crash into a General Mills plant in Georgia US and over a week ago, a plane crashed into Idaho potato and food processing plant.

Western media reports EU officials claiming "Russia is using natural gas to blackmail Europe". Lots of headlines with "Russia cuts-off gas to Poland". Explanation here:

👉 Gazprom officially announced that gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria were stopped due to their refusal to pay for gas in rubles. Gazprom gave them notifications during this month.
👉 Earlier, Poland and Bulgaria stated that they were ready to pay only in euros, and they would not use the scheme proposed by Russia.
👉 Hungary expressed its readiness to pay for gas through an account with Gazprombank with conversion into rubles.
👉 Hungary will receive gas in transit through Bulgaria, so it will not be left without gas.
👉 If transit gas is stolen, then Gazprom promises to reduce the volume of transit by the volume that was stolen. (As in the case when Ukraine through Naftogaz stole 7.8 billion cubic meters of Russian gas in transit)
👉 Today, natural gas contracts in Europe is up almost 10%.
👉 The resumption of supplies to Poland and Bulgaria

US egg prices increased dramatically in April, due in part to the avian flu. USDA also claim backyard chickens are "testing positive" for bird flu. Reports are coming out urging US/Canada citizens to stop using bird feeders & waterers. About 23 million birds, mostly poultry, and turkeys — have been culled in efforts to stem the spread of avian flu over the past two months. China has confirmed the first known human case of the H3N8 strain of avian flu, but health authorities say there is a low risk of widespread transmission among people.

Shortage of EV batteries could soon become a bigger issue than the chip shortage. Automakers could face a critical shortage of EV batteries, as well as the metals required to produce the roughly 1,000 pound lithium-ion batteries. "Put very simply, all the world's cell production combined represents well under 10% of what we will need in 10 years,". "Meaning, 90% to 95% of the supply chain does not exist,".

Tesla's CEO Elon Musk tweeted "If insane lithium prices persist, the company might have to get into the mining and refining directly at scale." This month the chip shortage has forced Mercedes-Benz to shut down two of its assembly plants in Brazil. Neon gas shortages for chip manufacturing continues to be a concern. While some claim that the recent sharp drop in graphic (GPU) chip prices could mean the chip shortage is nearing an end. (Come to your own conclusions 👍).

Corn and soybeans futures contract prices have risen nearly to records. Soybeans have gained 27% so far this year, trading above $17 per bushel for the first time US drought affected crops in 2012. Corn futures are up 37% this year trading around $8 per bushel at 10-year highs.

Drought conditions in Argentina and Canada will play a role in organic grain prices. Argentina accounted for 15% of US imported organic oilseeds and their derivatives and 69% of US organic corn imports in 2020-21. US farmers plan to plant more soybean. Last month, Argentina, the worlds largest soybean meal/oil, suspended soybean meal/oil exports. Two weeks ago, corn futures trading were hitting life-of-contract highs.

The ruble soared to a more than two-year high against the euro in Moscow trade as the Euro fell against the USD. The ruble continues to trade in pre-sanction territory vs the USD after recovering from Feb/Mar crash. The Dollar/Yen jumped to a twenty-year high early Thursday after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) doubled-down on its ultra-low yield policy by offering to buy immeasurable amounts of bonds every session as needed.

US farming update:
- Pittsburgh farmers rush to protect crops ahead of freezing temperatures.
- Northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan farmers face rains, delaying planting.
- Iowa and southern Illinois spring planting season continues to be delayed due to rain.
- Southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois freeze warnings in might delay planting for farmers.
- West Texas farmers struggle to plant in drought conditions.
Picture: Freeze & Drought Maps. Table of 9 grain & oilseed commodities in the U.S. which have tight ending stocks. A bumper crop is needed to raise inventory levels.

- US Fed issued their CBDC report covering public dialogue about issuance of a USD retail CBDC and some potential benefits and risks.
- The Philippines to test wholesale CBDC to strengthen payment system.
- Hong Kong is exploring a retail CBDC, launching a discussion paper on the policy and design.
- ECB issues expression of interest for CBDC prototype user interfaces.