Australian public health expert, warns not to conflate food production with food security. Distribution/resilience and prices are major factors to differentiate. Obesity is an early sign of poor-quality food consumption. Just five multinational companies control the bulk of the world’s food production and distribution. And we’re increasingly reliant on fewer strains of wheat, barley and rice. Not to mention breeds of beef cattle, pigs and chicken. As a result of this efficiency drive, a single disruption or disease could decimate the world’s production.

Policies, corruption and water wastage are underlying factors affecting Pakistan’s battle with food shortages.

97% of Afghans are experiencing food shortages. The Taliban-controlled government has been cut off from the international economy, resulting in a currency crisis & widespread poverty.

Tunisia’s recent emergency importation of grain has stayed off the emptying of shelves, but as the country’s treasury is drained, eventually products begin to disappear from stores again.

Despite Ethiopia’s declared humanitarian cease-fire with Tigrayan rebels, aid groups said they are struggling to get food and medicine to those in need. North of the Amhara region, in Tigray where journalists are banned from entering, there are famine-like conditions.

An investigation is underway to determine what sparked a fire at a food processing plant in northwest Fresno, California, USA. The fire broke out at the Saladino's plant on Sunday night.

The European Union has paid some $50 billion for oil, gas, and coal imports from Russia since late February. Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria have asked for exemptions from the oil embargo discussed by the EU. Few producers that could increase their oil output quickly and the biggest of them, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates appear unwilling to do it.

The world’s third-largest oil importer, India, is negotiating steep discounts for the Russian oil it is prepared to buy, asking for below $70 per barrel price to compensate for logistics, financing, and sanctions troubles for buying crude.

Vitol Group, the world’s biggest independent oil trader, is shipping the first-ever cargo of Russia’s ESPO crude blend to the United Arab Emirates.

Inflation in Turkey hit a 20-year-high in April as the country continued to battle rising rates. Consumer price inflation soared to 69.97% per year in April, and 7.25% monthly, driven by high global energy prices and the weakening lira. The surge in consumer prices was driven by an annual 105.9% increase in transportation, and an 89.1% jump in food and non-alcoholic drinks prices. The Turkish currency lost 44% of its value against the dollar last year and more than 11% since the start of January, making the cost of imported goods and fuel very expensive.

USA- NOPEC legislation is passed by a Senate panel, after being bandied about for some 20 years and rejected time and again. The legislation, if signed into law by Biden would give the U.S. a pathway to sue OPEC for price-fixing and market manipulation. The White House's reaction to the Senate panel’s NOPEC vote so far has been extremely cautious and cognizant of the implications, so there is a fair amount of optimism that it will not go further than the panel. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members have rebuffed requests by the US to boost oil production beyond gradual amounts. Opposition to NOPEC by major trade groups, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Petroleum Institute (API) has intensified in recent weeks and months. They fear it could backfire on America’s oil and gas industry.

Manure has become a hot commodity. U.S. farmers hunting for animal manure as chemical fertilizers are in short supply or at sky-high prices. This is partly a result of the Biden administration sanctioning Russia and Belarus (2 of the world's top fertilizer exporters). The admin's ability to spin the transition of the chemical fertilizer to manure because it's the "green" thing to do is nothing short of disinformation.

Canada-based Nutrien Ltd., the world's largest fertilizer company, warned that fertilizer disruptions "could last well beyond 2022." Nutrien posted a more than 10-fold jump in first-quarter 2022 profit.

Major US fertilizer producer, CF Industries Holdings reported that 2022 quarterly earnings climbed 485%. Mosaic Co the world's largest producer of finished phosphate fertilizer, posted a more than 7-fold surge in quarterly profit.

Australian biosecurity officials are on high alert after reports of 1,247 cases of foot-and-mouth disease in cattle, in Indonesia. Foot-and-mouth disease is considered one of the most serious livestock diseases, affecting cloven-hoofed animals such as cattle, buffalo, camels, sheep, goats, deer and pigs. It can kill young animals, cause production losses and lead to significant trade restrictions.

(Avian Flu) Bird flu virus outbreaks continue across the U.S. totalling over 37 million chickens and turkeys killed/culled since March. Under guidance of the federal government, farms must destroy entire commercial flocks if just one bird tests positive for the virus. Wholesale egg prices touched a record $2.90 a dozen in April. Whole turkeys touched an all-time high $1.47 a pound.

National Currency payment & crypto headlines this week.

🇧🇷 Brazil’s previous President Da Silva, proposes a Latin American currency ‘to be free of the US dollar’.

🇦🇷 Argentina's central bank announced that financial institutions cannot enable their clients to carry out operations using digital assets.

🇷🇺 🇨🇳 The Chinese and Russian central banks will discuss the use and promotion of their respective national payment systems in both countries.

🇺🇸 The Stablecoin Transparency of Reserves and Uniform Safe Transactions Act of 2022, makes the U.S. likely the only Western country, to fully regulate and accept stablecoins as an official part of the financial and banking system.

🇺🇸 🇰🇵 The U.S. Treasury sanctioned virtual currency mixer Blender.io (Blender), which is used by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).

Spring wheat hits 14-year high. A combination of delayed plantings in Northern U.S. Plains and Canada due to soggy weather, a dry spell in Western Europe, chaos in Ukraine, and severe weather in India, have disrupted global wheat markets, sending prices in Minneapolis to the highest levels since 2008. Earlier today, the most-active Chicago Board of Trade wheat (CBOT) was up 1.5% at $11.25 a bushel.

🇨🇭 90% of surveyed central banks are exploring CBDCs — Bank for International Settlements.
🇳🇬 The Central Bank of Nigeria has upgraded their CBDC, the eNaira, to keep the public away from using crypto alternatives.
🇨🇱 Chile's central bank governor says, Chile's CBDC would need to accept offline payments.
🇦🇺 Australia - Privacy isn't of concern, central banks are moving ahead with plans for CBDC's.
🇧🇸 IMF recommends the Bahamas ‘accelerate its education campaigns’ on CBDC.
🇮🇳 India's National Council of Applied Economic Research report says India should take caution in introducing CBDC
The Indian government, after imposing a 30% crypto tax and 1% tax-deductible at source (TDS), is now working to bring them under the goods and service tax (GST) ambit.

Ukraine is now pursuing agreements with Lithuania, Latvia, & Poland to help ship wheat using their ports. The country's grain is also loaded onto trucks etc. in the small Danube ports of Reni & Izmail in the southwest, for transport to the Romanian Black Sea port of Constanta. Bulgaria said it was willing to help export Ukrainian grain from its Black Sea port of Varna. Trucks stuffed with Ukrainian grain have already been seen heading to the Moldovan port of Giurdulesti on the Danube. (Video)

Biden signed the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022 to make it easier for the U.S. to lend or lease military aid to Ukraine. Under the measure, Ukraine can request transfers of U.S. weapons and other assistance. The U.S. will get guarantees that the country will replace or reimburse the assets.

Ukraine continues to massively exports grain from the Odessa and Nikolaev regions which can be used to pay for lend-lease agreement with the US, and will create the pretext to accuse Russia of a new Holodomor.

BREAKING- Ukraine turns off Europe-bound Russian gas.

Gas Transit Services of Ukraine (OGTSU) declared force majeure, saying that it was impossible to continue transit of gas through a connection point and compressor station located in the Lugansk area. As OGTSU personnel “cannot carry out operational and technological control” over the Sokhranovka connector point and Novopskov compressor station, the company cannot continue to fulfill its contract obligations.

Russian gas conglomerate Gazprom has received no confirmation of force majeure or any obstacles to continued transit of gas through a junction in Lugansk region, after Ukraine’s operator OGTSU announced it would halt further deliveries starting May 11, due to the presence of “Russian occupiers.”

Gas from this connection will not be accepted into the transit system of Ukraine starting at 7 am on Wednesday, OGTSU said. Sokhrankovka accounts for almost a 3rd of Russian gas transiting through Ukraine to Europe – up to 32.6 mmcm/day.

USA - Fertilizer update:
🚜 Alabama farmers say they're adapting to dramatic increases in fertilizer prices by reconsidering what crops they plant, ordering smaller amounts of fertilizer and raising prices on fruits and vegetables.

🚜 Tennessee farmer: “I guess when I bought in February… of ’21 for that crop so this year, we tripled in nitrogen prices, and we pretty well doubled in potash and phosphate and it’s even higher since then probably another 15%, maybe 20% on certain elements,”

🚜 The US price of ammonia, the primary source of nitrogen fertilizer, has risen by a factor of six in the past two years.

🚜 Michigan state lawmakers to work on a resolution to request Congress to allow farmers to petition the U.S. International Trade Commission to temporarily waive tariffs on imports of fertilizer and fertilizer ingredients imported from Morocco.

📈 Gap between the record gasoline and diesel prices and the far-below-record crude oil prices shows consumer demand forces & currency devaluation at work.

High diesel prices are due to low refining capacity globally; rising demand for jet fuel, which competes with diesel for refining capacity.

📊 Adjusted for CPI inflation, it's still not a record. In July 2008, gasoline at $4.11 would amount to $5.37 a gallon in today's dollars, with diesel prices still not at a record. In July 2008, diesel peaked at $4.76 a gallon, which would be $6.22 in today's dollars.

📊 Adjusted for CPI inflation, that $150 a barrel back in July 2008 would be $196 in today's dollars. So, today's price of $102 is far below the spike of 2008 in "real" terms and doesn't yet amount to any kind of actual oil shock.

🚜 Rising diesel prices latest hurdle for Alberta, Canada farmers.
🚜 High diesel fuel prices hitting Pennsylvania, USA farmers.
🩸Largest diesel distribution hub in the U.S. is sitting on diesel supplies at a 30-year low.

Europe's natural gas/energy markets worsens. Russia imposes sanctions against units of Gazprom Germania. Russia has imposed its own sanctions on EuRoPol Gaz S.A., which owns the Polish portion of the Yamal-Europe natural gas pipeline.
The 2,000+ kilometer Yamal-Europe pipeline runs from Torzhok in Russia to Frankfurt, Germany, with the Polish section accounting for over 680 kilometers and housing five compressor stations. Last month, Germany’s energy network regulator took control of operations at Gazprom Germania.

Poland and Bulgaria, has been able to use the reverse flow on the Yamal pipeline to import gas from Germany. These sanctions coupled with yesterday's Ukraine's gas operator OGTSU shutting down a gas transit point of Russian gas to Europe has resulted in higher prices for Europeans today. German gas storage is around 40% full, that is still low for the time of year and inventories need to be built up over the summer in preparation for winter. Germany's 1year power ahead prices continue to rise.

Clashes between protesters and government supporters across Sri Lanka turns violent as the country's economic crisis worsens. The president's elder brother, Mahinda Rajapaksa, quit as prime minister on Monday as violence spiralled and is in hiding in a military base. The central bank said inflation was at 30% in April, with food prices up nearly 50%. Sri Lankan authorities imposed a nationwide curfew and deployed the army on Monday. Sri Lankans are facing food and fuel shortages, power cuts, and inadequate supply of medicines. Sri Lanka was the first country in South Asia to embrace neoliberalism. Yet the opening of its economy to the IMF came with the vilification of minorities and a violent onslaught on trade unions. British MP calls on UK government to apply sanctions on 'senior figures' in Sri Lanka.

Coffee futures in New York jumped this week as new weather forecasts show Brazil (the world's largest producer) has increased frost risks in top growing areas. Brazil's soluble coffee exports fell 4.7% in the first four months of 2022. Russia, was the second main destination for Brazilian soluble coffee, behind only the US. Coffee farmers in Vietnam have resorted to growing avocados and durians due to the high cost of fertiliser. Ghana's Cocoa Board plans to distribute more than 600,000 coffee seeds to farmers; trees will reach maturity in 3-5 years.

Wheat climbed to a two-month high today on the CBOT exchange after India banned exports of the grain as a heat wave crimped its output. But India would still allow exports backed by already issued letters of credit and to countries that request supplies to meet food security needs. The most-active wheat contract rose as much as 6% to $12.47 a bushel. India's government had taken the decision "in order to manage the overall food security of the country. Sources said China is drawing food grains from India after crop loss led to food security concerns there. India mainly exports wheat to neighboring countries like Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka. India is a major wheat producer, but historically production was consumed domestically and not exported. (Chart).

Hong Kong intervened to prop up its currency for the first time since 2019, putting further upward pressure on interest rates. Hong Kong’s beleaguered economy faces the prospect of soaring borrowing costs, with the city’s de facto central bank expected to drain large amounts of liquidity as it defends a dollar peg.

The Russian ruble took over from Brazil's real as the world’s best performing currency of 2022 as the end looms for Brazil’s monetary tightening. The ruble has strengthened against the US dollar by more than 11% since the beginning of the year.

Market speculators have made a £5bn bet against the British pound after cost of living fears sent the currency sliding to a two-year low.

The IMF has raised the U.S. currency's weighting to 43.38% from 41.73% and the Chinese yuan to 12.28% from 10.92%, in its review of the currencies that make up the valuation of its Special Drawing Rights (SDR), an international reserve asset.

USA -Prices for diesel, have surged 76.5% in the last year to hit a record $5.56 per gallon. Inventories for the most commonly used diesel have dropped 43% since 2020 to the lowest since 2014. In Europe, diesel prices have soared 88%.

The chief driver isn’t high crude prices or even the rebound in demand: It’s simply too few refineries turning oil into usable fuels. Mountains of regulations make it extremely difficult to build and operate a new refineries in the US. Around 75% of all commercial vehicles registered in the U.S. are powered by diesel, making headache for U.S. trucking companies.

China's diesel exports are likely to drop in May from April's 447,000 tonnes, or about 110,000 bpd. While Russia may become bigger crude supplier to Asia's refineries. Likely that Europe's moves to end purchasing of Russian crude will result in European countries seeking to buy more diesel from refiners in Asia and the Middle East.