Forwarded from Captain Keshel and Co. American Election Integrity HQ
Sanity check on NC.
When NC flipped for Obama, the telltale sign was a 1.6% shift in registrations toward Dems, 205,853 in net number.
Since then, NC has swung heavily toward Rs in registration. This is a 5 cycle trend out since 2004 on voter registration, which ALWAYS runs right of the Dem voter registration advantage, which is hanging like a thread by just D+123,053 as of today's update.
The lowest that differential got was in 2020 in the "fortified" election, and Trump ran 465,897 ahead of the Dem registration advantage.
I think with an influx of north easterners it isn't likely to see Trump at the average 2004-20 differential of 704,887 this year, which would be about a 12.8% win, but the average Trump number of 624,729 comes up to a 9.4% win. If Trump gets that differential cut in half this year, he would still win by 110,000 votes, or 2.0%.
If NC is supposed to be flipping, this data does not show it whatsoever, nor do the current mail request data.
I continue to foresee a 4-6% Trump win in NC.
When NC flipped for Obama, the telltale sign was a 1.6% shift in registrations toward Dems, 205,853 in net number.
Since then, NC has swung heavily toward Rs in registration. This is a 5 cycle trend out since 2004 on voter registration, which ALWAYS runs right of the Dem voter registration advantage, which is hanging like a thread by just D+123,053 as of today's update.
The lowest that differential got was in 2020 in the "fortified" election, and Trump ran 465,897 ahead of the Dem registration advantage.
I think with an influx of north easterners it isn't likely to see Trump at the average 2004-20 differential of 704,887 this year, which would be about a 12.8% win, but the average Trump number of 624,729 comes up to a 9.4% win. If Trump gets that differential cut in half this year, he would still win by 110,000 votes, or 2.0%.
If NC is supposed to be flipping, this data does not show it whatsoever, nor do the current mail request data.
I continue to foresee a 4-6% Trump win in NC.
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Forwarded from Mannie's War Room
The IDF releases images showing F-15i fighter jets of the Israeli Air Force's 69th Squadron taking off from the Hatzerim Airbase to carry out the assassination of Hezbollah terror chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut on Friday.
Dozens of bunker busting bombs were dropped by the fighter jets on Hezbollah's underground headquarters in the Dahiyeh suburb of Beirut in the attack, according to the military.
Dozens of bunker busting bombs were dropped by the fighter jets on Hezbollah's underground headquarters in the Dahiyeh suburb of Beirut in the attack, according to the military.
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Forwarded from Mannie's War Room
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is holding an assessment on the IDF's readiness "to expand the offensive activity" on the northern front, his office says.
The assessment is being held with IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, head of the Operations Directorate, Maj. Gen. Oded Basiuk, and head of the Intelligence Directorate, Maj. Gen. Shlomi Binder.
The assessment is being held with IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, head of the Operations Directorate, Maj. Gen. Oded Basiuk, and head of the Intelligence Directorate, Maj. Gen. Shlomi Binder.
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Forwarded from Conflicts Observer
#IsraelHezbollahConflict Top commanders of Hezbollah including chief Hassan Nasrallah killed by Israeli Forces in a series of strikes on Lebanon.
t.me/ConflictsObserver
t.me/ConflictsObserver
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