With Iran’s SAM & early warning radars hit, even in daylight, the AAA doesn’t stand any chance of stopping Israeli air launched ballistic missiles & very little chance of stopping cruise missiles.

Entire thread found here:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1849123507143070149.html

Something to remember: just like with the coalition war with Iraq in ‘91, the opening waves focused on SEAD. Once the Air Defenses were blinded & SAM sites were suppressed, the attacks continued in broad daylight with fixed wing aircraft continuing to attack as well as cruise missiles continuing to swarm into Iraq & hit targets. Yes, in broad daylight. Once the attack started it never relented until the end of the war.

The point I’m making is just because its now dawn in Iran & Iraq & Syria, don’t assume the attacks won’t continue.

Smoke seen rising from an IRGC Air Defense Base near the Town of Khojir in the Tehran Province.

They’re flying circles wasting Aviation Fuel, accomplishing nothing. ⬇️

Aircraft reportedly seen and heard over the Iranian Capital of Tehran, with them believed to likely be Iranian Fighters conducting Combat Air Patrols.

Air Defense Activity and Explosions seen earlier over the Khuzestan Province of Western Iran, with several Strikes reported against Dezful Military Airport and a nearby Surface-to-Air Missile Site.

This has wider implications for the war in Ukraine as well; Russia has been buying huge numbers of suicide/attack drones from Iran & using them in the Ukraine war.

If Israel did serious damage to Ballistic Missile & Drone stocks & production capabilities & it’s more likely than not Israel succeeded at this, then the supply of Iranian made drones is likely to dry up for Russia.

Especially given that Russia has withheld delivery of advanced Russian Sukhoi SU-35 Flanker-E fighters Tehran ordered almost three years ago, that Russia withheld indefinitely sending production units to frontline Russian fighter squadrons instead.

Russia not fulfilling the order before this strike will put a strain on relations between the two countries. Pressure will grow on Moscow to fill the contract given the damage to Iranian SAM defenses.

Russia is also the primary supplier of those to Tehran, but with Russian operations in Syria & Ukraine its not clear Russia has any S-300 or more advanced S-400 systems to supply to Iran.

China can provide Iran replacement SAMs & licensed copies of Flanker-E fighters which have super maneuverability & advanced AESA radars that would have been very useful tonight, but will they?